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Real Assets Fueled by Energy
The VanEck Vectors Real Asset Allocation ETF (RAAX) uses a data-driven, rules-based process that leverages over 50 indicators (technical, macroeconomic and fundamental, commodity price, and sentiment) to allocate across 12 individual real asset segments in five broad real asset sectors. These objective indicators identify the segments with positive expected returns. Then, using correlation and volatility, an optimization process determines the weight to these segments with the goal of creating a portfolio with maximum diversification while reducing risk.
April Performance Summary
The VanEck Vectors Real Asset Allocation ETF (RAAX) launched, on April 9, into a period of strong performance for real assets. RAAX performed well on both an absolute and relative basis. Through April, in the first 16 days of its life, RAAX returned +2.98% based on net asset value versus +2.41% for its benchmark, the Blended Real Asset Index, which is comprised of an equally weighted blend of the returns of Bloomberg Commodity Index, S&P Real Assets Equity Index, and VanEck Natural Resources Index*. Equal weightings are reset monthly.
| Total Returns (%) as of April 30, 2018 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mo† | YTD† | 1 Year | Life (04/09/18) | |
| RAAX (NAV) | – | – | – | 2.98 |
| RAAX (Share Price) | – | – | – | 3.26 |
| Blended Real Asset Index* | – | – | – | 2.41 |
| Total Returns (%) as of March 31, 2018 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mo† | YTD† | 1 Year | Life (04/09/18) | |
| RAAX (NAV) | – | – | – | – |
| RAAX (Share Price) | – | – | – | – |
| Blended Real Asset Index* | – | – | – | – |
The table presents past performance which is no guarantee of future results and which may be lower or higher than current performance. Returns reflect temporary contractual fee waivers and/or expense reimbursements. Had the ETF incurred all expenses and fees, investment returns would have been reduced. Investment returns and ETF share values will fluctuate so that investors’ shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. ETF returns assume that distributions have been reinvested in the Fund at NAV.
†Returns less than a year are not annualized.
Expenses: Gross 0.81%; Net 0.74%. Expenses are capped contractually at 0.55% through February 1, 2020. Expenses are based on estimated amounts for the current fiscal year. Cap exclude certain expenses, such as interest, acquired fund fees and expenses, and trading expenses.
RAAX’s positioning was moderately defensive in April, and it was fully invested across commodities, natural resource equities, and Master Limited Partnerships (”MLPs”). The largest real asset investments were in diversified commodities (30%), gold bullion (20%), and agribusiness equities (20%).
May Positioning: Fully Invested and Mostly Bullish
RAAX remains fully invested across commodities, natural resource equities, and MLPs. As they were at launch, the largest weightings remain in diversified commodities (30%), gold bullion (20%), and agribusiness equities (20%). However, its allocation to gold equities now stands at 10%, increasing overall gold exposure to 30%.
We are bullish on most real assets. Based on the model’s analysis, diversified commodities, gold, agribusiness equities, MLPs, steel equities, oil services equities, and unconventional oil and gas equities are all well positioned to perform. We are bearish on Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), infrastructure, base metal equities, and coal equities.
Asset Class Weights
Source: VanEck. Data as of May 2, 2018.
This month we increased our exposure to gold equities and removed our exposure to coal equities. Another notable point is that we are bearish on two interest rate sensitive sectors, REITs and infrastructure, as interest rates continue to rise.
Remember, RAAX only invests in asset classes that the model is bullish on, and the weightings themselves are not an indication of conviction but a byproduct of a quantitative process that seeks to maximize diversification and minimize volatility. Let’s take a look at some of the reasons why RAAX maintains a bullish or bearish position on certain asset classes.
Gold
The model remains bullish, and overall exposure increased based on the portfolio diversification benefits that gold provides. Gold prices have been flat this year, but the precious metal has provided stability during periods of broad market stress.
Cumulative Growth of $10,000 of Gold and S&P 500 Index in 2018
Source: FactSet; Bloomberg. Data as of May 2, 2018. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
Oil Services Equities
Research conducted here at VanEck has identified that oil price and the S&P 500 Index can be used to explain most of the performance of oil services stocks historically. Using these variables to generate an expected return for oil services stocks, we can look at the difference between this and the actual return of oil services stocks. Right now, based on these variables, oil services stocks are trading at a substantial discount, and the chart below shows that oil services stocks haven’t been this cheap since 2001.
Performance Variance of Oil Servicers and Key Independent Variables
Source: VanEck; FactSet; Bloomberg. Data as of April 2018. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Oil servicers measured by the MVIS U.S. Listed Oil Services 25 Index. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
The model remains bullish on oil services stocks. Key bullish indicators include strong oil prices, reasonable volatility in oil services equities, and strong demand for natural gas. The chart below shows that oil prices are up 14.83% this year through April.
Cumulative Growth of $10,000 of Crude Oil in 2018
Source: FactSet. Data as of April 30, 2018. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Oil measured by West Texas Intermediary (WTI) oil price. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
Coal Equities
At launch, RAAX had a small weighting to coal, but in May, this exposure was completely eliminated based on falling coal equity prices and weakening supply and demand data. Below is our economic composite for coal. It turned bearish at the end of April due to declining demand for coal in the U.S. and China, and declining production in the U.S.
Coal Economic Indicator Composite
Source: VanEck. Data as of April 30, 2018. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Coal equities measured by MVIS Global Coal Index. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
A Closer Look at the What, When, and How
Step One: What to Own
The aphorism ”a rising tide lifts all boats” is appropriate here. April was a great month to invest in real assets. Each real asset in our investment universe and the approximated holding period return of the underlying index is listed below. The assets that we were bearish on are shaded.
Holding Period Return
April 10 – April 30, 2018
| Gold Equities | 1.42% | Oil Services Equities | 13.97% |
| Agribusiness Equities | 1.22% | Unconventional Oil & Gas Equities | 12.36% |
| Coal Equities | -1.78% | Global Metals & Mining Equities | 4.65% |
| Gold Bullion | -1.56% | Diversified Commodities | 3.60% |
| MLPs | 6.08% | REITs | 1.53% |
| Global Infrastructure | 1.53% | Steel Equities | 7.42% |
Source: Bloomberg; FactSet. Data as of April 30, 2018. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
Step Two: When to be Invested
We were fully invested in April. This was the right call as real asset investments rallied. RAAX begins to raise a cash position when five or more assets become bearish. This is typically indicative of a systemic market event. RAAX has not raised cash since it launched.
Step Three: How to Allocate
Capital is allocated amongst assets on which the model is bullish on using an optimization process designed to maximize our diversification and minimize our volatility. In April, this resulted in a 50% exposure to commodities, a 45% exposure to natural resource equities, and a 5% exposure to MLPs. RAAX’s allocation in May has not changed drastically.
Monthly Asset Class Changes
| Asset Class | May-18 | Apr-18 | Change |
| Gold Equities | 10% | 5% | 5% |
| Diversified Commodities | 30% | 30% | 0% |
| Agribusiness Equities | 20% | 20% | 0% |
| Gold Bullion | 20% | 20% | 0% |
| Limited Partnerships | 5% | 5% | 0% |
| Service Equities | 5% | 5% | 0% |
| Cash | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Unconventional Oil & Gas Equities | 5% | 5% | 0% |
| Steel Equities | 5% | 5% | 0% |
| Estate Investment | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Global Infrastructure | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Metals and Mining Equities | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Coal Equities | 0% | 5% | -5% |
Source: VanEck. Data as of May 2, 2018.
- Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
- Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
- What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?
Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has amassed a staggering $43 billion in Bitcoin, positioning itself at the forefront of the corporate “reserve race.” Under the leadership of Bitcoin maximalist Michael Saylor, the company now boasts an $84 billion market cap. But with such an aggressive strategy, how sustainable is its approach—and what risks lie ahead? We break it down in today’s analysis.
Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
A drop below $72,000 could flush longs, while a breakout above $90,000 may squeeze shorts. One key positive indicator is that Bitcoin continues to print higher lows since March 10, which preserves a bullish market structure in our view. Dive into our technical analysis.
What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?
Imagine owning a slice of a skyscraper or a piece of fine art with just a few clicks. Tokenization, the act of converting ownership rights to real-world assets (RWAs) into tradable tokens, has surpassed $10 billion in on-chain value, unlocking global 24/7 access to once-exclusive markets with liquidity, efficiency, and yield. Find out how it works.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
Since President Trump appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chair two months ago, many investigations into crypto businesses have been dropped, as the SEC moves away from regulation by enforcement and works to create a framework for digital assets. As regulations become clearer and news flow turns more positive, crypto prices—which dropped sharply this week—should begin to better reflect the new regulatory landscape in the US.
We believe this regulatory shift could ultimately help trigger the next leg of the current bull run, as investors better understand the significance of regulatory clarity and seek to acquire bitcoin and altcoins at what we believe are currently very favorable levels.
Market Highlights
SEC Dismisses Crypto Enforcement Actions
The SEC dropped its enforcement actions against crypto-related companies Kraken, Consensys, and Cumberland DRW.
This indicates a shift in SEC’s regulatory approach, favoring clearer guidelines over enforcement actions. Such a pivot could foster a more predictable environment, encouraging innovation within the sector.
Banks to Engage in Crypto Activities
The FDIC has rescinded previous guidelines which prevented financial institutions from engaging with crypto activities without prior sign-off.
By removing bureaucratic hurdles, banks may more readily offer crypto-related services, potentially leading to broader adoption and integration of digital assets.
Bitcoin ETFs Inflow Streak Surpassed $1 Billion
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a 10-day inflow streak exceeding $1 billion marking the longest such streak in 2025.
This underscores growing institutional and retail investor confidence in Bitcoin as an asset class that helps increase market stability and possibly paving the way for the approval of other crypto-based financial products.
Market Metrics
All NCITM constituents had negative performance last week, with XRP (-10.8%) and UNI (-10.7%) seeing the steepest declines. ETH also experienced a sharp drop (-9.1%), contributing to NCITM’s underperformance relative to BTC (-2.9%). The NCITM -4.2% decline reflects a broader risk-off sentiment in the crypto market, as investors reassess their positions amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.
NCITM (-4.2%) extended its underperformance last week, deepening year-to-date losses. Traditional indices like the S&P 500 (-1.5%) and Nasdaq 100 (-2.4%) saw smaller declines. The gap between crypto and other risk assets continues to widen, while gold has emerged as the top performer in 2025, gaining nearly 20% amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. This trend highlights a growing risk-off sentiment, with investors shifting toward defensive assets and away from high-volatility investments.
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