Your reference guide to commodity markets. Includes the latest outlook for each commodity sector and major developments for individual commodities.
Despite the lower probability of a La Nina weather pattern developing this year, the overhang of record stock levels and higher production forecasts are weighing on prices.
Fundamentals to sustain a recovery in industrial metals in Q4 or Q1 2017.
Oil continues to remain volatile, but will trade within a range of US$40/bbl to US$55/bbl.
Precious Metals likely to remain volatile amid key central bank meetings.
The base effects from the commodity rout in late 2015 only begins rolling out of the headline inflation data in late 2016 but should leave US inflation close to 1.7% by year end, up from 0.8% now. This coupled with rising wages is likely to pressure the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December, with a rhetoric prior to that of increasing hawkishness. Following a strong run in commodities (since the February trough) of 22%, weaker growth expectations from China and forecasts for policy tightening in the US have driven a selloff, with commodities declining 6% since late June. We have continued to see inflows into safe-haven assets, particularly gold, reflecting a wide range of concerns that can be categorised into five main categories:
uncertainty from the Fed and
the ECB over policy action,
Middle-East instability,
negative interest rates surpassing that of gold’s cost of carry and
the broad rise of political populism in the developed world.
We believe that the rise of populist parties, elected or not, is a powerful catalyst for reform, with incumbent parties scrambling to counter the populist wave by implementing similar policies. We expect economic stimulus to shift solely from monetary policy to include fiscal policy with the end result being a rise in infrastructure spend and social initiatives to combat inequality, prompting wider government deficits and higher inflation. Despite the broad set of fears pervading the market at present we are continuing to see improving growth figures from the developing markets where delivered economic data is broadly beating expectations. We believe the emerging markets are much better positioned to weather the prospects of a stronger USD now than they were 3 years ago.
Despite the lower probability of a La Nina weather pattern developing this year, the overhang of record stock levels and higher production forecasts are weighing on agricultural commodity prices. Coffee, sugar, corn and soybean oil were the only commodities to post positive returns among the agriculture commodity complex.
Fundamentals to sustain a recovery in industrial metals in Q4 or Q1 2017. Declining production combined with rising consumption resulted in a global supply deficit in each industrial metal in Q2. The commodity sector may end 2016 in a deficit for the second time since 2005. We believe copper is the best positioned to benefit from the recovery.
Oil continues to remain volatile, but will trade within a range of US$40/bbl to US$55/bbl. Speculation as to whether OPEC will freeze production after its informal meeting later this month has been a source of that volatility. However, we believe that focus on an OPEC freeze is misplaced and cuts to non-OPEC production will push the market into balance.
Precious metals declined 2.1% last month as expectations of a US rate hike this year increased and the ECB failed to signal any further loosening of policy. We believe demand for gold and silver is likely remain volatile in the second half of the year amid a number of decisive central bank meetings and the US presidential election.
For those of you following the contrarian model we have the following signals;
ETF Securities Research team ETF Securities (UK) Limited T +44 (0) 207 448 4336 E info@etfsecurities.com
Important Information
General
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the ”FCA”).
This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.
The crypto investment journey is shaped by volatility, even in a bull market. Significant longer-term returns are frequently accompanied by substantial short-term drawdowns.
The table below from our research team shows how many Bitcoin drawdowns of 10% or greater there have been since 2010. In this bull cycle, we anticipate similar short-term fluctuations as price discovery unfolds. However, as BTC continues to mature, these drawdowns may be less severe and volatility may continue to come down over time.
Source: Hashdex Research with data from Messari (from July 21, 2010 to December 31, 2024).
Market Highlights | Jan 06 2025 – Jan 12 2025
One-year anniversary US bitcoin ETFs
• Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded a total trading volume of $660 billion in the last 12 months, with $36.2 billion in total net inflows.
• The unprecedented success of these products underscores the important role of ETFs in institutional adoption and price action throughout 2024.
Hong Kong sets up blockchain “guide” for banks
• Hong Kong’s Monetary Authority set up a “supervisory incubator” to help banks manage risks with blockchain adoption and experimenting.
• This initiative highlights the growing importance of blockchain technology worldwide and Hong Kong’s plan to become a crypto hub.
UK crypto staking legislation
• The UK treasury amended legislation enabling crypto staking services to be exempt from the rules of governing collective investment scheme.
• This supports our perspective that more regulatory clarity for crypto investors will come in 2025, helping to accelerate adoption.
Market Metrics | The Nasdaq Crypto Index™
This week was marked by a drawdown for crypto assets, with the NCI™ falling 4.7%. Still, year to date, the index only lags gold (+2.3%) in performance, reinforcing the “debasement trade” theory we presented in the last Hash Insider.
Source: Hashdex Research with data from CF Benchmarks and Bloomberg (from December 31, 2024 to January 12, 2025).
It was a red week for all NCI™ components, with XRP (+6.1%) being the lone exception. Potential drivers of this negative performance include better-than-expected US payroll data, which might suggest higher inflation in the future, a traditionally bearish driver for short-term price action.
Source: Hashdex Research with data from Messari (from January 05, 2025 to January 12, 2025).
Market Metrics | Indices tracked by Hashdex
Source: Hashdex Research with data from CF Benchmarks and Vinter (from January 12, 2024 to January 12, 2025).
Information för innehavare av Valour Fantom (FTM)-certifikat: Detaljer om Sonic-migreringen och byte av namn. Bytet från Fantom (FTM) till Sonic (S) markerar övergången till det nya Sonic huvudnätet, med FTM-innehavare som kan uppgradera sina tokens till S i förhållandet 1:1. Valour kommer att hantera hela migreringsprocessen på uppdrag av Valour Fantom (FTM) certifikatinnehavare, vilket säkerställer en sömlös övergång.
Det är Valours mål att lägga till gratis airdrops av betydande värde till certifikatens NAV (Net Asset Value) när det är möjligt. Det är dock viktigt att notera att värdefulla airdrops ofta inte distribueras fritt till tillgångsinnehavare. Istället tilldelas dessa airdrops vanligtvis till betydande användare och bidragsgivare till nätverket som kompensation för deras aktiva engagemang och stöd till projektet. I situationer där distributioner är baserade på specifikt användarengagemang eller bidrag, är det osannolikt att Valour tar emot dessa airdrops.
Innehavare av Valour Fantom (FTM) behöver inte vidta några åtgärder, eftersom Valour kommer att hantera alla aspekter av utbytet och integrationen.
Enligt Lookonchain-data från den 10 januari såg Fidelitys Bitcoin ETF betydande utflöden, vilket återspeglar försiktiga investerares sentiment. Det var emellertid inte bara Fidelitys Bitcoin ETF som såg utflöden, det gäller även denna emittents Ethereum ETF. Samma sak gäller även för andra amerikanska börshandlade fonder som spårar kryptovalutor.
Amerikanska Bitcoin ETFer såg ett nettoutflöde på 2 152 BTC (cirka 201,21 miljoner USD), där Fidelitys Bitcoin ETF bidrog till detta med ett utflöde på 2 752 BTC (257,26 miljoner USD). Trots detta fortsätter Fidelity att inneha betydande 205 488 BTC värderade till 19,21 miljarder dollar.
På liknande sätt hade Ethereum ETFer ett nettoutflöde på 45 684 ETH (148,11 miljoner USD), främst driven av Fidelity, som stod för 44 998 ETH (145,88 miljoner USD).
10 Bitcoin ETFer
NetFlow: -2 152 BTC (-$201,21 MUSD) varav Fidelitys utflöden -2 752 BTC (-257,26 M) och har för närvarande 205 488 $BTC($19,21B) under förvaltning.
9 Ethereum ETFer
NetFlow: -45 684 ETH(-$148,11 miljoner) varav Fidelity utflöden 44 998 ETH (145,88 MUSD).
Fidelitys Ethereum-innehav uppgår nu till 415 503 ETH, värderat till 1,35 miljarder dollar. Dessa rörelser tyder på en omkalibrering av innehav, möjligen påverkad av marknadsförhållanden eller strategisk ombalansering när investerare navigerar i början av 2025-trender.
BlackRock överglänste av Fidelity i spot Bitcoin ETF
Denna utveckling följer en utmanande period för BlackRock, som upplevde två betydande Bitcoin-utflöden i december – det största sedan ETFernas start.
Fidelitys aggressiva ackumulering belyser dess engagemang för att stärka sin position på krypto-ETF-marknaden, vilket signalerar växande institutionellt intresse och konkurrens i denna snabbt utvecklande sektor.