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Profit-taking in oil as price slides after OPEC meeting

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Profit-taking in oil as price slides after OPEC meeting Industrial metal ETPs inflows hit seven-year high as speculative unwind eases ETF Securities

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Profit-taking in oil as price slides after OPEC meeting

  • Crude oil ETPs experience largest outflows in six months after OPEC agrees output cut extension
  • Industrial metal ETPs inflows hit seven-year high as speculative unwind eases
  • Investors enamoured with tech ETPs sees 11th consecutive week of inflows, totalling US$34mn
  • US Dollar buying continues at the expense of the Euro, with sixth consecutive week of inflows

Crude oil ETPs experience largest outflows in six months after OPEC agrees output cut extension. OPEC and its non-OPEC partners have agreed to freeze production at current levels for another nine months The Saudi-Arabian led cartel has sought to bolster prices after the price collapse that emerged when its 2014 experiment failed and crippled many OPEC member economies. A deeper cut would be need to shock the market to drive prices higher. With US, Canadian and Brazilian production continuing to grow and global demand remaining soft, global oil inventories will remain elevated. OPEC’s target of bringing down the level of OECD oil inventories to its 5-year average will continuingly be undermined by the growth in US shale oil. As a result, crude prices slid and investors took the opportunity to book profits, with long oil ETPs experiencing the largest withdrawal since early December 2016, totalling US$100mn.

Investors enamoured with technology ETPs sees 11th consecutive week of inflows. The tech sector continues to lead equity global performance, as tech earnings in the US have come in better than expected. The inflows into both cybersecurity and robotics themed ETPs totalled US$34mn, the largest inflows in 11 weeks.

US Dollar buying continues at the expense of the Euro, with 6th consecutive week of inflows. Although the market is fully pricing in a rate hike in the US at the Federal Reserve’s June meeting, the US Dollar continues to weaken. Last week, the US Dollar index (DXY) reached the lowest level since October 2016. Futures positioning has moderated in recent weeks, in line with the price weakness. In contrast, ETP investors have been optimistic, driving inflows into long USD ETPs for the 6th consecutive week. Inflows over that period have totalled US$57mn. At the same time, investors have been cutting positions from short USD ETPs, with withdrawals totalling US$15.3mn. Last week’s outflows were the largest from short USD ETPs since the first week in January 2017. The primary buying of USD came against the Euro which broke above key resistance at 1.12 level. Long Euro ETPS experienced the largest withdrawals in 20 weeks, while short Euro ETPs tallied the sixth consecutive week of inflows.

Industrial metals inflows reach seven year high. Investors have taken the stabilisation in metals prices as a signal to start bargain hunting in the sector. Speculative unwind has begun to ease and with signs of stabilisation in the Chinese economy and China’s authorities initiating new infrastructure programs. Broad industrial metals basket received US$42mn, the largest in seven years.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

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This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

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Hashdex kryptokorg nominerad till Digital Assets ETP Of The Year

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Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP, den största kryptoindexprodukten i Europa med över 500 miljoner USD i AUM, har nominerats till ETF Stream Awards 2024, i kategorin "Digital Assets ETP Of The Year"!

Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP, den största kryptoindexprodukten i Europa med över 500 miljoner USD i AUM, har nominerats till ETF Stream Awards 2024, i kategorin ”Digital Assets ETP Of The Year”!

Hashdex är glada över att se sitt engagemang för att tillhandahålla innovativ, reglerad tillgång till kryptotillgångsklassen erkänd. Detta erkännande belyser deras ledarskap när det gäller att utveckla kryptoinvesteringslösningar.

Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP, den största kryptoindexprodukten i Europa med över 500 miljoner USD i AUM, har nominerats till ETF Stream Awards 2024, i kategorin ”Digital Assets ETP Of The Year”!

Detta erkännande belyser Hashdex engagemang för att tillhandahålla innovativa, robusta produkter som förenklar tillgången till kryptotillgångarnas värld. HDX1 erbjuder diversifierad exponering och tydlighet på en komplex marknad, vilket förkroppsligar Hashdex uppdrag att föra kryptons framtid in i nutiden av investeringar.

Prisutdelningen äger rum den 28 november i London, där Hashdex kommer att ansluta sig till branschens främsta ETF-spelare.

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China’s ETF outflows captured elsewhere in Asia

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For years, India has been ramping up to contend with China as the region’s top technology leader. Pandemic-era supply chain issues hastened its successes in luring foreign tech firms. Now, equity investment flows are following suit. Dina Ting, Head of Global Index Portfolio Management at Franklin Templeton, highlights a few factors behind how the subcontinent is benefiting from rotational flows.

For years, India has been ramping up to contend with China as the region’s top technology leader. Pandemic-era supply chain issues hastened its successes in luring foreign tech firms. Now, equity investment flows are following suit. Dina Ting, Head of Global Index Portfolio Management at Franklin Templeton, highlights a few factors behind how the subcontinent is benefiting from rotational flows.

As China braces for renewed friction over President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats, investor flows may be following similar currents as those of regional supply chain shifts—that is to say, diversifying from China and toward opportunities in markets such as India and Japan.

After the People’s Bank of China revealed the most aggressive stimulus package it’s rolled out since the COVID-19 pandemic, China stock markets saw a short-lived rally at the end of September. A lack of detailed measures targeting consumption seems to have disappointed investors and led the bullish sentiment to deflate.

Adding to the country’s economic woes are societal changes like falling birthrates and a rapidly ageing population. Estimates by China’s National Health Commission suggest the country’s elderly population will grow to over 400 million by about 2035. To better cope with this crisis, China’s statutory retirement age will be extended, starting in January 2025, for the first time since the 1950s.

India investors, meanwhile, are finding the subcontinent—which has already overtaken China as the world’s most populous nation—appealing for its relative immunity to global risks, given its domestic-driven economy. Its younger labor force has also attracted a market pivot to this prime alternative to China manufacturing. For the 12-month period prior to China’s September 2024 stimulus announcement, US-listed India equity exchange traded funds (ETFs) garnered US$7.5 billion in flows—a sharp contrast to the US$6 billion in outflows experienced by China ETFs over the same period.1

Judging by India’s impressive initial public offering (IPO) environment, businesses there are feeling the optimism. The country’s 258 IPOs accounted for 30% of the global total by number by the end of September and 12% by the amount of money raised, in an economy that makes up just over 3% of global GDP.2

And investors in India are taking note. Aided by the improving digitalization of finance and increased internet access, India’s middle class is also an expanding retail investor class. By one measure, nationwide stock trading accounts nearly tripled from 2019 to 2023 to roughly 140 million.3

In dollar terms, total returns for Indian stocks have risen by 93% over the past five years, compared with about a 24% rise overall for emerging markets and drop of 5% for China stocks over the same period.

Many investors seeking to better diversify emerging market exposure or layer in targeted broad country allocation can tap single-country exchange-traded strategies.

Emerging markets in the Asia region are not the only beneficiaries of a potential US-China trade war. Earlier this year, investors were already driving up flows into Japan ETFs. Market watchers consider Japanese stocks to be indirect beneficiaries of Trump’s reflationary economic policy—which may keep interest rates high, thereby boosting the dollar and weakening the yen to the advantage of Japanese exporters.

The MSCI Japan Index is up nearly 21% in US dollar terms in the one-year period ending October 31, 2024. Consumer discretionary, financials and industrials holdings led gains during this time.

An element of uncertainty around the policies of a second Trump term, however, are still causing jitters around Asia, especially given the president-elect’s transactional approach to international relations.

Fortunately, Japan is seeing a renaissance in its semiconductor industry for which Tokyo is investing heavily (more than US$25 billion through 2025) and has established strong multilateral trade partnerships.

Japan has already elevated its role in global supply chain reorganization in recent years, and seeks to take advantage of its clout in joint free trade initiatives, such as the US’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity to strengthen its regional supply-chain leadership.

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30IG ETF köper eurodenominerade företagsobligationer med förfall 2030

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iShares iBonds Dec 2030 Term EUR Corporate UCITS ETF EUR (Dist) (30IG ETF) med ISIN IE000LX17BP9, strävar efter att spåra Bloomberg MSCI December 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate ESG Screened index. Bloomberg MSCI December 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate ESG Screened-index följer företagsobligationer i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2030) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2030 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

iShares iBonds Dec 2030 Term EUR Corporate UCITS ETF EUR (Dist) (30IG ETF) med ISIN IE000LX17BP9, strävar efter att spåra Bloomberg MSCI December 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate ESG Screened index. Bloomberg MSCI December 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate ESG Screened-index följer företagsobligationer i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2030) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2030 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,12 % p.a. iShares iBonds Dec 2030 Term EUR Corporate UCITS ETF EUR (Dist) är den enda ETF som följer Bloomberg MSCI December 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate ESG Screened index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (kvartalsvis).

Denna ETF lanserades den 9 maj 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Varför 30IG?

Exponering mot företagsobligationer i euro denominerade i investeringsklass, skattepliktiga, fast ränta och som förfaller mellan 01/01/30 och 02/12/30

Det är en investeringsperiod i fonden att andelsägare den 02/12/30 kommer att få sina andelar inlösta utan ytterligare meddelande eller aktieägargodkännande den 30/03/12

Indexet tillämpar skärmar som exkluderar emittenter som är involverade i följande affärsområden/aktiviteter: tobak, kärnvapen, civila skjutvapen, kontroversiella vapen, termisk kolbrytning, generering av termisk kolkraft, oljesand, konventionella vapen och vapensystem/komponenter/ stödsystem/tjänster.

Investeringsmål

Fonden strävar efter att uppnå avkastning på din investering, genom en kombination av kapitaltillväxt och inkomst på fondens tillgångar, vilket återspeglar avkastningen från Bloomberg MSCI December 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate ESG Screened Index, fondens jämförelseindex.

Handla 30IG ETF

iShares iBonds Dec 2030 Term EUR Corporate UCITS ETF EUR (Dist) (30IG ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
XETRAEUR30IG

Största innehav

EmittentVikt (%)
BANQUE FEDERATIVE DU CREDIT MUTUEL SA2.66
INTESA SANPAOLO SPA2.54
VOLKSWAGEN INTERNATIONAL FINANCE NV2.09
COMPAGNIE DE SAINT GOBAIN SA1.95
MERCEDES-BENZ GROUP AG1.82
VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC1.82
VONOVIA SE1.78
MIZUHO FINANCIAL GROUP INC1.69
BANCO SANTANDER SA1.35
PERNOD-RICARD SA1.35

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