Weekly Investment Insights Platinum rally to resume?
Platinum has been one of the leading performers of the precious metal basket year-to-date, rising 13% (as of 9th February 2017).
Technically, the price has managed to break through some of its key levels but correction potential exists.
In the longer term, buoyant demand from risk-averse investors and the European automotive industry should keep the metal fundamentally supported
Precious metals have a strong start
Year to date, precious metals are up on average 9.6%* as a weakening US Dollar and safe haven demand have kept the complex aloft. Of particular note is the strong rise in the price of platinum (11.3%*) which currently sits at a four month high and whose differential to gold has fallen to around $200, a recent lower bound. Last year platinum was the laggard of the precious metals basket, rising a meagre 1.1%* while its close relative, palladium, returned a healthy 22%*. The metal has broadly traded in gold’s slip stream and despite five years of market deficit has failed to re-establish price levels of above $1,300 it enjoyed prior to 2014. From a technical standpoint, the current rally appears as though it does have some room to run further and gains could be sustained beyond should investment and European automotive demand remain buoyant in 2017. Click to enlarge
Balance in sight?
The world’s largest platinumand palladiumrefiner, Johnson Matthey, expects the platinum market to show a small surplus in 2017, while the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) foresees a deficit. Both forecasts assume weaker demand from global investors and the European automotive industry in the year ahead. However, given the considerable political uncertainties present in Europe and the US, investment demand is likely to remain supported which should be reflected in a continuation of inflows into platinum backed exchange traded funds that witnessed in the fourth quarter of last year. Meanwhile, consumer spending looks increasingly healthy across developed nations as growth prospects improves, boding well for the platinum price in the longer term.
Near term rally could linger
Looking at daily moves, the platinum price has recently broken through both its 200 daily moving average (DMA) of $1,011/oz and its 38.2% ($1,007/oz) Fibonacci retracement from its run lower between August and December last year. Furthermore, the metal has managed to sustain a week above the psychologically important $1,000/oz level. Speculative futures positioning has broken higher above its five year average as longs rebound from December lows and shorts reach the lowest level in approximately two and a half years (Aug-14, see Figure 1). This would all suggest that some correction potential has accumulated but providing the US dollar doesn’t experience a resurgence then the trend could continue higher in the short term (next few months), especially as the price has sustained breaks above key technical levels (as aforementioned).
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This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorized and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). The products discussed in this document are issued by ETFS Commodity Securities Limited (“CSL”), Swiss Commodity Securities Limited (“SCSL”), and ETFS Metal Securities Limited (“MSL”). CSL, SCSL and MSL are regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission.
Please find below Hashdex monthly crypto market update and performance attribution for Hashdex Crypto-Index ETPs for October 2024.
With October often showing strong seasonality for crypto assets, this month’s results reflect a promising trend for Bitcoin, although gains were more limited across Altcoins. As outlined in our latest CIO note, “Beyond Trump and Harris: Five Congressional Races That May Impact Crypto’s Future”, several upcoming US congressional races could shape the regulatory landscape for crypto, with potential implications for institutional adoption and future price action. Bipartisan support for the asset class is expected to grow, depending on the results of key races.
We will share some updates during the week, if you need any inputs on US elections, feel free to reach out to us.
Hashdex Crypto Index ETPs: performances (USD) as of end of October 24
• Beta Index ETP– Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH or HDX1) (largest Crypto Index ETP in Europe): October +7.1%, YTD +45%, 12M +89%.
• Smart-Beta Index ETP – Crypto Momentum Index ETP(HAMO or HDXM): October -0.5%, YTD +1.2%, 12M +71%.
Market Update – October 24
October, commonly known as ”Uptober” for its seasonally strong performance for Bitcoin, continued this trend in 2024. The month began with a volatile period, as the Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) initially gave back gains from September. All NCI constituents declined in the first ten days, with the exception of Uniswap, which announced plans for its own layer-two network on Ethereum.
Mid-month, the sentiment shifted, with a sharp rally that drove Bitcoin close to its all-time high by the 29th. The NCI ultimately closed the month up 7.1%, significantly outpacing traditional markets as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 declined slightly. This rally coincided with a sharp increase in former president Donald Trump’s odds in election betting markets, generating additional optimism around Bitcoin.
While Bitcoin posted a robust 10.6% gain, Altcoins generally underperformed. The notable positive exception among altcoins was Solana, which rose 9.0%. In contrast, Ripple declined 18.6% due to ongoing SEC litigation, and Polygon’s MATIC dropped over 20% as it migrated to a new token model (POL).
Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) relative to other asset class in October 24
Source: Hashdex, as of 30/10/24.
In comparison with traditional assets, the NCI’s 7.1% gain far outpaced the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, both of which posted slight declines. This performance underscores the potential for crypto assets to provide upside during periods of broader market uncertainty. The majority of this outperformance was driven by Bitcoin’s strength, underscoring its role as a cornerstone of the crypto asset class and its growing appeal as a macroeconomic hedge.
Performance attribution:
Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI)
The NCI recorded positive returns for most of its primary constituents, with Bitcoin (+10.6%) leading the gains. Solana (SOL) also contributed positively, rising 9.0%. However, Ripple (XRP) and Polygon’s MATIC weighed on the index, with losses of 18.6% and over 20%, respectively. Ripple’s decline was largely attributed to ongoing legal issues with the SEC, while MATIC’s transition to the POL token created additional downward pressure.
Source: Hashdex, as of 31/10/24.
Crypto Momentum Factor Index
The Crypto Momentum Factor Index showed a slight monthly decline of 0.5% in October, reflecting the underperformance of altcoins in general. Although Tron (TRX) remained relatively stable, other altcoins in the index faced headwinds, leading to a small monthly loss for the index.
Source: Hashdex, as of 31/10/24.
Correlation (3m) to traditional asset classes
Source: Hashdex, as of 31/10/24. NCI for Nasdaq Crypto Index.
Goldman Sachs Global Green Bond UCITSETF EUR (Dist) (GSGR ETF) med ISIN IE000SYQFJV2strävar efter att spåra Solactive Global Green Bond Select-index. Solactive Global Green Bond Select-index följer gröna obligationer. Alla löptider ingår. Betyg: Investment Grade.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,22 % p.a. Goldman Sachs Global Green Bond UCITSETF EUR (Dist) är den enda ETF som följer Solactive Global Green Bond Select-indexet. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Ränteintäkterna (kuponger) i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (halvårsvis).
Denna ETF lanserades den 13 februari 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Mål
Goldman Sachs Global Green Bond UCITSETF är en passivt förvaltad, hållbar global obligationsfond som uteslutande investerar i gröna obligationer enligt bedömningen av Goldman Sachs Asset Managements investeringsteam för gröna obligationer.
Crypto markets faced a volatile week as key macroeconomic events approached, with the upcoming US presidential election and anticipated Fed rate decision fueling uncertainty in risk assets. Bitcoin (BTC) rose 1.7%, ether (ETH) declined 1%, Solana (SOL) fell 8.2%, and the Nasdaq Crypto IndexTM (NCITM) was down 0.5%.
Microsoft to consider bitcoin investment starting December
According to a new SEC filing, Microsoft is considering the possibility of investing in Bitcoin as a hedge strategy against inflation despite opposition from its Board of Directors. This move, by one of the world’s largest companies, would mark a significant step in institutional adoption for Bitcoin.
MicroStrategy discloses plans to buy $42B of BTC
The firm announced bold plans to raise $42 billion over the next three years to acquire more bitcoin. This new wave of capital will be split equally, with $21 billion from equity issuance and $21 billion from debt offerings, in a project called the ”21/21” plan. This move, led by founder Michael Saylor, underscores bitcoin’s potential as a valuable hedge against inflation and highlights its appeal as a strategic investment option.
UBS launches its first tokenized fund on Ethereum
UBS Asset Management has launched its first tokenized fund, the USD Money Market Investment Fund Token (uMINT), a money market fund built on the Ethereum blockchain, available through authorized partners. The launch supports the growing demand for tokenized financial assets and leverages distributed technology to enhance fund issuance and distribution, as well as UBS’s broader strategy to expand its tokenization services.