Since U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on April 2, termed ”Liberation Day,” global markets have experienced significant volatility. The S&P 500 shed $5.83 trillion in market value over just four days, marking its steepest drop since the 1950s. Asian markets saw their worst session since 2008, reflecting widespread fears of an economic slowdown.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yields initially fell below 4% as investors sought safety, but by April 8-9, they surged to a seven-week high of 4.515%. This spike, driven by bond market sell-offs potentially from basis trading or China’s strategic moves to pressure U.S. negotiations, suggests a precarious economic situation rather than risk-on sentiment.

On April 9, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries (excluding China, where tariffs jumped to 145%) in an effort to give markets time to absorb the changes and calm volatility. The move sparked a broad rally, with the S&P 500 surging 9.5% for its best day since 2008 and Bitcoin rebounding above $80,000 after a turbulent stretch.

Bitcoin is macro now

Despite persistent concerns about crypto volatility, Bitcoin’s price over the past two weeks has closely mirrored the S&P 500 and has actually been less volatile. This alignment reflects Bitcoin’s growing maturity as an asset class and highlights its resilience. As a highly liquid and accessible asset, it continues to attract investors looking for relative value in turbulent markets.

Sentiment shifts toward crypto ETFs

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $700 million in outflows, while Ethereum ETFs lost $400 million since March, marking a sharp reversal after nine consecutive months of inflows. The pullback points to growing institutional caution amid broader macro uncertainty. Still, on-chain data reveals that long-term holders have been steadily accumulating since January lows, signaling continued confidence in the asset class.

Macroeconomic uncertainty takes center stage

The latest U.S. CPI print came in at 2.4%, which was lower than expected. A rate cut in May still seems premature as markets assess the full impact of new protectionist measures. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has warned that tariffs could raise inflation while slowing growth. As a result, the probability of three rate cuts in 2025 now exceeds 60%. Declining yields may be an early signal of future monetary easing, which could favor risk assets like crypto if economic pressures intensify.

Bitcoin: Dollar’s ally or alternative?

In the face of policy uncertainty, the debate around the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status is gaining momentum. With its decentralized and censorship-resistant design, Bitcoin is emerging as both a potential complement and challenger to the dollar, especially as the U.S. increasingly wields its currency as a geopolitical tool through tariffs and sanctions.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain solid. Hashrate is at all-time highs, regulatory clarity is improving, and long-term holders continue to accumulate. With prices consolidating above $80K, the current correction may offer a strategic opportunity for investors positioning for the next leg of growth, particularly as the macro picture evolves.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,10 % p.a. iShares EUR Cash UCITS ETF EUR (Acc) är den enda ETF som följer iShares EUR Cash-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar).

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Fondens mål är att ge en avkastning i linje med penningmarknadsräntorna. Detta mål är förenligt med att upprätthålla kapital och säkerställa att dess underliggande tillgångar lätt kan köpas eller säljas på marknaden (under normala marknadsförhållanden).

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Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

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We’re seeing increasing client interest in how crypto behaves during market stress. This week’s Hash Insider, our weekly research letter, dives into correlation dynamics.

Crypto Correlations Shift Pattern

Toward the end of February, correlations between crypto and other asset classes—excluding gold—began to rise, influenced by key US policy decisions on international trade tariffs. This trend, captured in the 30-day correlation window, is typical during periods of market stress, when assets often move in tandem, reflecting a broader risk-off sentiment.

However, in the wake of “Liberation Day,” this pattern unexpectedly broke, with crypto correlations declining (except to gold). This anomaly mirrors the first week of April when digital assets outperformed traditional markets despite economic uncertainty.

Nasdaq Crypto Index correlation with traditional asset classes:

More in this week’s Hash Insider → Link to report

In addition, our team looked at market rebound past dynamics:

Bitcoin: Post-Stress Winner

Looking back at six major dislocations since 2020, Bitcoin saw sharp drawdowns in the first 10 days—but outperformed all major assets 60 days later in four of the six cases. In my view, the current environment could offer interesting entry point to build a position into the broad crypto market via the Nasdaq Crypto Index. More details about our flagship ETP replicating this index on its Product Page .

How assets performed after stress events

Source : Hashdex and Bloomberg