Följ oss

Nyheter

Opportunity to short agriculture with La Niña

Publicerad

den

ETF Securities Commodities Research - Opportunity to short agriculture with La Niña Crop production may increase if La Niña starts in winter

ETF Securities Commodities Research – Opportunity to short agriculture with La Niña

Crop production may increase if La Niña starts in winter

Summary

  • As El Niño fades, La Niña weather conditions look increasingly likely to emerge later in the year.
  • La Niñas that reach a “medium” strength by northern hemisphere winter tend to help the production of grains, coffee and cocoa and so a La Niña starting in winter 2016/17 could be price negative.
  • Should La Niña be delayed to spring/summer 2017, we could see mainly price positive developments.

From El Niño to La Niña

We are currently in the one of the most extreme El Niño events on record (with records dating back to 1950). El Niño refers to the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which is a scientific term that describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the east-central Equatorial Pacific. The warm phase of the ENSO has led to droughts in Asia and excess rain in South America, leading to a 50% rally in sugar prices between August and December 2015 for example.

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, out of the past 26 El Niño events since 1900 approximately 40% have been followed by a La Niña, the cold phase of ENSO. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society’si regression models peg the probability of a La Niña  event at 53% by September.

ETFS1

(Click to enlarge) La Niña tends to have the opposite effect of El Niño: places with droughts under El Niño tend to have excess rain under La Niña and vice-versa.

ETFS2

(Click to enlarge) Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organization

Our analysis of previous ENSO cycles identifies nine distinct La Niña events of a medium magnitudeii since 1959 (8 for coffee since 1972 and 6 for soybean oil since 1979 due to lack of price availability). We look at how commodity prices have performed one year from the date a certain threshold of La Niña intensity has been reached. At a first glance it appears as if there is no clear directional impact from La Niña events. For most commodities there have been a similar number of price-positive events as price negative.

ETFS3

(Click to enlarge)

Summer La Niña vs. Winter La Niña

However, a key distinguishing feature between these nine events is when the La Niña started (or more accurately when it reaches our threshold intensity). We see a clear pattern that La Niñas that reach threshold intensity in the northern hemisphere winter, drive prices of most agricultural commodities lower within one year of the event. The notable exception is sugar. La Niñas that reach threshold intensity in the northern hemisphere summer, drive prices of most agricultural commodities higher within one year of the event. Soybean is an exception here. Summer La Niñas tend to have a more substantial price impact, reflecting the fact that more northern hemisphere crops are in the ground and therefore exposed to weather changes.

ETFS4

(Click to enlarge) Based on NOAA model forecasts of a greater than 50% probability of La Niña starting in northern hemisphere Autumn, we could hit threshold intensity by winter 2016.

Looking at past price trends has limitations. We are not accounting for length or amplitude of each weather event. Nor are we conditioning for other drivers of price including: planting decisions, competing weather patterns, crop infections, starting stocks and currency movements.

Crop cycle and weather impacts by geography

Looking at the crop cycle and weather impacts at different times of the year in various geographies, we believe there is a logical reason why prices should rise or fall in a winter La Niña. The table below is a summary of our findings. We believe that if a winter La Niña 2016 is confirmed, there is good reason to short wheat, corn, soybeans, coffee and cocoa and go long sugar.

At meteorologists’ mercy

We caution investors however, to wait for a confirmation that the weather pattern will emerge as early as winter 2016/17. If the weather event is delayed until spring/summer 2017, then the price impacts could be very different. Remember, the El Niño expected in 2014 did not emerge until 2015. In the meantime, lingering weather impacts from El Niño could provide upside price risks for cocoa in the short-term as the market has underestimated the impact of dryness on the mid-crop which will be harvested from May in most of Africa. Cocoa prices have fallen more than 20% since December as the market has focused on ample port deliveries failing to recognise that supply overall this year could be tight.

ETFS5

(Click to enlarge)

i The organisation that jointly produces the official US meteorological forecasts with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organization. The official forecast is based on a consensus of forecasters and committee discussion. The probability from the regression is a purely objective input to the discussion.
ii We use an Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) of less than or equal to -1° to identify a “medium” La Niño event. The ONI is based on Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departures in a specific region of the Pacific Ocean away from its 30-year average. While a La Niña event is technically marked by a ONI of less than or equal to -0.5°, we have chosen to look at medium intensity of -1°, to judge events of significant strength and reduce spurious analysis. We call this the “threshold intensity” for the purpose of this article.

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.

Fortsätt läsa
Annons
Klicka för att kommentera

Skriv en kommentar

Din e-postadress kommer inte publiceras. Obligatoriska fält är märkta *

Nyheter

Fastställd utdelning i MONTDIV april 2025

Publicerad

den

Idag fastställdes utdelningen i MONTDIV april 2025. Montrose Global Monthly Dividend MSCI World UCITS ETF (MONTDIV ETF) fastställdes till 0,39465 kronor per andel. Utdelningen i MONTDIV april 2025 beräknas betalas ut den 12 maj 2025.

Idag fastställdes utdelningen i MONTDIV april 2025. Montrose Global Monthly Dividend MSCI World UCITS ETF (MONTDIV ETF) fastställdes till 0,39465 kronor per andel. Utdelningen i MONTDIV april 2025 beräknas betalas ut den 12 maj 2025.

Handla MONTDIV ETF

Montrose Global Monthly Dividend MSCI World UCITS ETF (MONTDIV ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på Nasdaq Stockholm.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  NordnetSAVRDEGIRO och Avanza.

Fortsätt läsa

Nyheter

WELG ETF en satsning på healthcareföretag världen över

Publicerad

den

Amundi S&P Global Health Care ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) (WELG ETF) med ISIN IE000JKS50V3, strävar efter att spåra S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Health Care-index. Det S&P-utvecklade ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Health Care-indexet spårar stora och medelstora företag från hälso- och sjukvårdssektorn. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning).

Amundi S&P Global Health Care ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) (WELG ETF) med ISIN IE000JKS50V3, strävar efter att spåra S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Health Care-index. Det S&P-utvecklade ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Health Care-indexet spårar stora och medelstora företag från hälso- och sjukvårdssektorn. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,18 % p.a. Amundi S&P Global Health Care ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) är den billigaste ETF som följer S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Health Care-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Årligen).

Amundi S&P Global Health Care ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) är en mycket liten ETF med 17 miljoner euro förvaltade tillgångar. ETFen lanserades den 20 september 2022 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

AMUNDI S&P GLOBAL HEALTH CARE ESG UCITS ETF DR – EUR (D) försöker replikera, så nära som möjligt, resultatet av S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Health Care Index (Netto Total Return Index). Denna ETF har exponering mot stora och medelstora företag i utvecklade länder. Den innehåller uteslutningskriterier för tobak, kontroversiella vapen, civila och militära handeldvapen, termiskt kol, olja och gas (inkl. Arctic Oil & Gas), oljesand, skiffergas. Den är också utformad för att välja ut och omvikta företag för att tillsammans förbättra hållbarhet och ESG-profiler, uppfylla miljömål och minska koldioxidavtrycket.

Handla WELG ETF

Amundi S&P Global Health Care ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) (WELG ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURWELG
XETRAUSDWELZ
XETRAEURWELG

Största innehav

Denna fond använder fysisk replikering för att spåra indexets prestanda.

NamnValutaViktSektor
ELI LILLY & COUSD10.29 %Health Care
UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCUSD7.99 %Health Care
NOVO NORDISK A/S-BDKK6.32 %Health Care
ABBVIE INCUSD6.12 %Health Care
ASTRAZENECA GBPGBP5.26 %Health Care
ROCHE HOLDING AG – GENUSSSCHF4.18 %Health Care
MERCK & CO. INC.USD3.93 %Health Care
NOVARTIS AG-REGCHF3.70 %Health Care
ABBOTT LABORATORIESUSD3.43 %Health Care
SANOFIEUR2.58 %Health Care

Innehav kan komma att förändras

Fortsätt läsa

Nyheter

Amundi noterar ETF för globala företagsobligationer

Publicerad

den

Amundi Global Corporate Bond UCITS ETF investerar globalt i företagsobligationer med fast ränta, denominerade i lokal valuta och har en investment grade-rating. De måste ha en återstående löptid på minst ett år.

Amundi Global Corporate Bond UCITS ETF investerar globalt i företagsobligationer med fast ränta, denominerade i lokal valuta och har en investment grade-rating. De måste ha en återstående löptid på minst ett år.

Andelsklassen är valutasäkrad mot amerikanska dollar och delar ut avkastningen.

NamnISIN
Kortnamn
KostnadUtdelnings-
policy
Amundi Global Corporate Bond UCITS ETF USD Hedged DistLU2996613266
USBG (USD)
0,17%Utdelande

Produktutbudet inom Deutsche Börses ETF- och ETP-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 405 ETFer, 198 ETCer och 256 ETNer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på mer än 21 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer och ETPer i Europa.

Fortsätt läsa

21Shares

Prenumerera på nyheter om ETFer

* indicates required

21Shares

Populära