While the market has greeted OPEC’s 90% compliance rate with its new quota with a lot of enthusiasm, we believe that rising US production will continue to weigh on oil prices and limit WTI oil to US$55/bbl in the first half of the year, US supply response to weigh on prices.
As oil prices have stabilised in the US$50-55/bbl region since December 2016, oil production in the US has surged. Rig counts in the US have risen 85% since the low was reached in May 2016. Gains in rig efficiency mean that the US can produce a lot more oil with less rigs in operation than in back in 2014.
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Production in the US is now only 7% below the peak reached in June 2015, after production surged since October 2016.
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US crude oil inventory is only 1% below its all-time high. The last time inventory was this high (September 2016), WTI was trading at US$45/bbl.
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With so much faith placed on the OPEC/non-OPEC deal to cut output, we fear that the market is set up for disappointment. Speculative positioning on NYMEXWTI futures contracts is more than 2.5 standards deviations above its historical average. Compliance with quotas often starts strong and deteriorates as time goes on. While Russia has cut oil production and therefore has complied with its deal with OPEC, it aims to increase exports, offloading existing stocks. With seasonal low demand in Saudi Arabia, we believe that exports from the country could also remain strong despite productions cuts that more than meet the quota requirement. In 2016 Saudi Arabia exported record levels of oil (7.65 million barrels per day).
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Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities
Niteshis a Commodities Strategist at ETF Securities. Nitesh has 13 years of experience as an economist and strategist, covering a wide range of markets and asset classes. Prior to joining ETF Securities, Nitesh was an economist covering the European structured finance markets at Moody’s Investors Service and was a member of Moody’s global macroeconomics team. Before that he was an economist at the Pension Protection Fund and an equity strategist at Decision Economics. He started his career at HSBC Investment Bank. Nitesh holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics from the London School of Economics and a Master of Arts in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University (USA).
Will liquidity continue driving Bitcoin’s price? Bitcoin’s relationship with M2 money supply.
The evolution of Bitcoin from a fiat-alternative to an emerging store of value.
Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade is poised to improve staking, blockchain efficiency, and scalability.
Will liquidity continue driving Bitcoin’s price?
Bitcoin has historically tracked global liquidity, with a 0.94 correlation to M2 money supply. But with inflation concerns, rate cut uncertainty, and geopolitical risks, could Bitcoin decouple? As adoption rises and strategic reserves grow, Bitcoin’s relationship with liquidity may be shifting. Here’s what you need to know.
The evolution of Bitcoin from fiat-alternative to emerging store of value
Originally designed as a decentralized payment system, Bitcoin has evolved into a global store of value, often called “digital gold.” By solving the double-spending problem and enabling secure, borderless transactions, Bitcoin has reshaped finance. Here’s how its role continues to evolve.
Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade, set to launch later this year, introduces 11 key improvements enhancing staking, scalability, and user experience. From faster validator activations and cheaper Layer 2 transactions to gas fee flexibility, Pectra is highly anticipated to boost Ethereum’s efficiency. How will these upgrades shape Ethereum’s future?
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
iShares iBonds Dec 2025 Term USD Treasury UCITSETF USD (Acc) (CEBI ETF) med ISIN IE000U99N3V1, strävar efter att spåra ICE 2025 Maturity US Treasury UCITS-index. ICE 2025 Maturity US Treasury UCITS-index följer amerikanska statsobligationer. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2025) i indexet. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2025 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,10 % p.a. iShares iBonds Dec 2025 Term USD Treasury UCITSETF USD (Acc) är den enda ETF som följer ICE 2025 Maturity US Treasury UCITS-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
iShares iBonds Dec 2025 Term USD Treasury UCITSETF USD (Acc) är en liten ETF med tillgångar på 53 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 6 september 2023 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Varför CEBI?
Fonden är denominerad i US-dollar.
Ger exponering mot utvecklingen av amerikanska statsobligationer med löptider mellan 1 januari 2025 och 15 december 2025, inklusive.
Det är en investeringsperiod i fonden att andelsägare den 31/12/2025 kommer att få sina andelar inlösta utan ytterligare meddelande eller aktieägarnas godkännande den 01/01/2026.
Investeringsmål
Fonden strävar efter att uppnå avkastning på din investering, genom en kombination av kapitaltillväxt och inkomst på fondens tillgångar, vilket återspeglar avkastningen från ICE 2025 Maturity US Treasury UCITS Index, fondens jämförelseindex.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.
Sedan i tisdags har två nya börshandlade fonder utgivna av WisdomTree kunnat handlas på Xetra och Börse Frankfurt. WisdomThrees nya fonder ger access till Europas försvarssektor och den globala kärnkraftssektorn.
WisdomTree Europe Defence UCITSETF erbjuder investerare tillgång till en portfölj med minst 20 europeiska företag inom försvarssektorn. Urvalet av företag baseras på deras andel av omsättningen i branschen. Företag associerade med klustervapen, antipersonella minor och biologiska och kemiska vapen är undantagna. Detsamma gäller företag som bryter mot allmänt accepterade internationella normer och standarder, såsom principerna i FN:s Global Compact.
Med WisdomTree Uranium and Nuclear Energy UCITSETF kan investerare delta i prestanda för minst 20 företag verksamma inom uran- och kärnenergiindustrin. Beroende på deras exponering för uran- och kärnkraftsverksamheten delas företagen in i kategorierna upstream, midstream eller innovatör. Viktningen av de enskilda kategorierna är 60 procent, 25 procent respektive 15 procent.
Produktutbudet i Deutsche Börses XTF-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 372 ETFer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på cirka 18 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer i Europa.