Såväl råolja som de börshandlade fonder som investerar i olja kan komma att utvecklas positivt i takt med att den globala ekonomin återhämtar sig. Samtidigt ser vi hur ett stigande inflationstryck och insatser har bidragit till att minska utbudsöverskottet. Även detta är faktorer som kan komma att stärka oljepriset. Vi ser emellertid en ny värdedrivare för oljepriset.
Fortsatt robust efterfrågan på olja
Den förväntade ekonomiska miljön bedöms förbli densamma, det vill säga stödjande för energisektorn under kommande år.
Efterfrågan på olja förblir robust och drivs av ytterligare återhämtning av den globala tillväxten tillsammans med att inflationstrycket medan insatser för att minska den globala försörjningsgluten pågår, säger Maxwell Gold, direktör för investeringsstrategi för ETF Securities, i en forskningsrapport. ”Dessa förändringar på utbudssidan kan komma att påverka några av de traditionella drivkrafterna för energiavkastning, inklusive US-dollarn (USD), räntor och kurvstruktur.”
Till att börja med kommer den negativa korrelationen mellan den amerikanska dollarn och energipriserna at minska eftersom USA växer mer och blir mer självförsörjande på energi genom ökad skifferoljeproduktion. USD beter sig nu mer som traditionella råvaror.
Contangots negativa effekter på olje futures marknaden minskar
Contangots negativa effekter på olje futures marknaden minskar och kan till och med röra sig mot backwardation. Maxwell hävdade att graden av contango har minskat sedan oljepriset bottnade ut 2016. Om den globala försörjningen sänks i högre takt och oljelagret fortsätter att se neddragningar, kan marknaden gå vidare till backwardation och få tillbaka sitt fokus. Även detta kan komma att öka som olje- och energiavkastningen.
Medan OPEC har gått mot att minska produktionen, förblir förväntningarna på fortsatt amerikansk skifferproduktion en avskräckande faktor. Trots att de senaste amerikanska inventeringarna, som vid produktionsuppehållstillstånd, kunde stödja nuvarande prisnivån fortsätter skifferproduktion att öka. Är det en ny värdedrivare för oljepriset?
Investerare som är intresserade av att få exponering för råoljemarknaden kan titta på den nyligen lanserade ETFS Bloomberg Energy Commodity Longer Dated Strategy K-1 Free ETF (NYSEArca: BEF). BEF försöker ge långsiktig kapitaltillskott utformat för att överträffa resultatet av Bloomberg Energy Index 3 Months Forward Index, som spårar rörelser i priserna på rullande positioner i en korg med futures på olika energiprodukter med en löptid mellan 4 och 6 månader.
Please find below Hashdex monthly crypto market update and performance attribution for Hashdex Crypto-Index ETPs for October 2024.
With October often showing strong seasonality for crypto assets, this month’s results reflect a promising trend for Bitcoin, although gains were more limited across Altcoins. As outlined in our latest CIO note, “Beyond Trump and Harris: Five Congressional Races That May Impact Crypto’s Future”, several upcoming US congressional races could shape the regulatory landscape for crypto, with potential implications for institutional adoption and future price action. Bipartisan support for the asset class is expected to grow, depending on the results of key races.
We will share some updates during the week, if you need any inputs on US elections, feel free to reach out to us.
Hashdex Crypto Index ETPs: performances (USD) as of end of October 24
• Beta Index ETP– Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH or HDX1) (largest Crypto Index ETP in Europe): October +7.1%, YTD +45%, 12M +89%.
• Smart-Beta Index ETP – Crypto Momentum Index ETP(HAMO or HDXM): October -0.5%, YTD +1.2%, 12M +71%.
Market Update – October 24
October, commonly known as ”Uptober” for its seasonally strong performance for Bitcoin, continued this trend in 2024. The month began with a volatile period, as the Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) initially gave back gains from September. All NCI constituents declined in the first ten days, with the exception of Uniswap, which announced plans for its own layer-two network on Ethereum.
Mid-month, the sentiment shifted, with a sharp rally that drove Bitcoin close to its all-time high by the 29th. The NCI ultimately closed the month up 7.1%, significantly outpacing traditional markets as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 declined slightly. This rally coincided with a sharp increase in former president Donald Trump’s odds in election betting markets, generating additional optimism around Bitcoin.
While Bitcoin posted a robust 10.6% gain, Altcoins generally underperformed. The notable positive exception among altcoins was Solana, which rose 9.0%. In contrast, Ripple declined 18.6% due to ongoing SEC litigation, and Polygon’s MATIC dropped over 20% as it migrated to a new token model (POL).
Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) relative to other asset class in October 24
Source: Hashdex, as of 30/10/24.
In comparison with traditional assets, the NCI’s 7.1% gain far outpaced the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, both of which posted slight declines. This performance underscores the potential for crypto assets to provide upside during periods of broader market uncertainty. The majority of this outperformance was driven by Bitcoin’s strength, underscoring its role as a cornerstone of the crypto asset class and its growing appeal as a macroeconomic hedge.
Performance attribution:
Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI)
The NCI recorded positive returns for most of its primary constituents, with Bitcoin (+10.6%) leading the gains. Solana (SOL) also contributed positively, rising 9.0%. However, Ripple (XRP) and Polygon’s MATIC weighed on the index, with losses of 18.6% and over 20%, respectively. Ripple’s decline was largely attributed to ongoing legal issues with the SEC, while MATIC’s transition to the POL token created additional downward pressure.
Source: Hashdex, as of 31/10/24.
Crypto Momentum Factor Index
The Crypto Momentum Factor Index showed a slight monthly decline of 0.5% in October, reflecting the underperformance of altcoins in general. Although Tron (TRX) remained relatively stable, other altcoins in the index faced headwinds, leading to a small monthly loss for the index.
Source: Hashdex, as of 31/10/24.
Correlation (3m) to traditional asset classes
Source: Hashdex, as of 31/10/24. NCI for Nasdaq Crypto Index.
Goldman Sachs Global Green Bond UCITSETF EUR (Dist) (GSGR ETF) med ISIN IE000SYQFJV2strävar efter att spåra Solactive Global Green Bond Select-index. Solactive Global Green Bond Select-index följer gröna obligationer. Alla löptider ingår. Betyg: Investment Grade.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,22 % p.a. Goldman Sachs Global Green Bond UCITSETF EUR (Dist) är den enda ETF som följer Solactive Global Green Bond Select-indexet. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Ränteintäkterna (kuponger) i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (halvårsvis).
Denna ETF lanserades den 13 februari 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Mål
Goldman Sachs Global Green Bond UCITSETF är en passivt förvaltad, hållbar global obligationsfond som uteslutande investerar i gröna obligationer enligt bedömningen av Goldman Sachs Asset Managements investeringsteam för gröna obligationer.
Crypto markets faced a volatile week as key macroeconomic events approached, with the upcoming US presidential election and anticipated Fed rate decision fueling uncertainty in risk assets. Bitcoin (BTC) rose 1.7%, ether (ETH) declined 1%, Solana (SOL) fell 8.2%, and the Nasdaq Crypto IndexTM (NCITM) was down 0.5%.
Microsoft to consider bitcoin investment starting December
According to a new SEC filing, Microsoft is considering the possibility of investing in Bitcoin as a hedge strategy against inflation despite opposition from its Board of Directors. This move, by one of the world’s largest companies, would mark a significant step in institutional adoption for Bitcoin.
MicroStrategy discloses plans to buy $42B of BTC
The firm announced bold plans to raise $42 billion over the next three years to acquire more bitcoin. This new wave of capital will be split equally, with $21 billion from equity issuance and $21 billion from debt offerings, in a project called the ”21/21” plan. This move, led by founder Michael Saylor, underscores bitcoin’s potential as a valuable hedge against inflation and highlights its appeal as a strategic investment option.
UBS launches its first tokenized fund on Ethereum
UBS Asset Management has launched its first tokenized fund, the USD Money Market Investment Fund Token (uMINT), a money market fund built on the Ethereum blockchain, available through authorized partners. The launch supports the growing demand for tokenized financial assets and leverages distributed technology to enhance fund issuance and distribution, as well as UBS’s broader strategy to expand its tokenization services.