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New Chinese FX reforms prompts caution across asset classes

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ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly - New Chinese FX reforms prompts caution across asset classes Chinese Renminbi devalued by nearly 5% as new reforms implemented.

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – New Chinese FX reforms prompts caution across asset classes

Highlights

•    Precious metals rally as industrial commodities slide on negative Chinese sentiment.
•    European stocks sell-off as China reforms hit luxury goods and auto sectors.
•    Chinese Renminbi devalued by nearly 5% as new reforms implemented.

The decision by the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) to devalue its currency by a cumulative 5% last week, the most on record, and to change its fixing methodology for CNY caused a negative reaction across asset classes. Investors became more defensive, reducing positions in cyclical assets. Commodity sectors exposed to China, like energy and industrial metals, saw prices slide in a knee-jerk reaction as a result. USD weakness helped commodity markets rebound, as expectations of an interest rate hike began to be pushed further back in 2015. Many commodity prices initially declined by more than the change in the CNY/USD rate, indicating a sentiment driven change rather than a fundamental one.

Commodities

Precious metals rally as industrial commodities slide on negative Chinese sentiment. WTI and Brent crude oil benchmarks fell 5.47% and 2.47%, respectively reaching the lowest level in over six years, with the devaluation of the CNY thought by many investors to be a signal of declining future demand. Significant negative sentiment over the outlook for Chinese economic growth appears to be priced in to a range of commodity markets, particularly energy and industrial metals sectors. We expect the commodity price weakness to largely transitory many prices initially declining by more (in USD terms) than the devaluation of the CNY/USD rate, indicating a sentiment driven change rather than a fundamental one. Gold and silver were the largest beneficiaries of the China FX decision, as some risk aversion took hold as investor sentiment waned.

Equities

European stocks sell-off as China reforms hit luxury goods and auto sectors. European equity benchmarks posted losses early in the trading week, in line with other major global bourses, as investors digested the potentially negative implications of a weaker Renminbi for the Chinese economy. Sectors like materials, luxury goods and autos were some of the worst affected. The surprisingly weaker Q2 GDP numbers from Germany and France also adversely affected investor sentiment. In contrast, the Chinese sharemarkets didn’t overreact to the news as many other bourses did, posting gains for the week, despite weaker-than expected numbers on industrial production and retail sales.

Currencies

Chinese Renminbi devalued by nearly 5% as new reforms implemented. The significant policy change was to set the new Renminbi fixing rate at the previous day’s closing spot CNY rate. The PBOC’s move allows greater exchange rate flexibility and transparency of CNY pricing in its ongoing reform of the Renminbi and was not intended to be a ‘currency war’. We feel it shows progress towards a more market determined rate and is beneficial for its IMF SDR aspirations despite the IMF noting that the Chinese policy change has ‘no direct implications’ for its SDR review. Both the AUD and NZD lost ground on the markets expectations of more expensive exports to China crimping demand. Further softness from these two currencies is expected, with their respective central banks maintaining their easing biases. Meanwhile, the Swedish Krone was the strongest G10 performing G10 currency, after CPI numbers surprised to the upside which could keep the Riksbank from cutting rates at its next meeting.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

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Europe’s defence awakening: strengthening security amid global shifts

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The race to bolster European defence capabilities is well underway. Since the invasion of Ukraine, European leaders have intensified calls for increased defence spending. The continent, long reliant on US security guarantees, is now facing a critical inflection point. Recent moves by the US administration to engage with Russia without consulting its European allies or Ukraine have underscored the urgent need for Europe to take charge of its own defence. This geopolitical reality has forced European leaders to acknowledge that relying on US support is no longer a guaranteed strategy, accelerating discussions on independent military capabilities and funding mechanisms.

The race to bolster European defence capabilities is well underway. Since the invasion of Ukraine, European leaders have intensified calls for increased defence spending. The continent, long reliant on US security guarantees, is now facing a critical inflection point. Recent moves by the US administration to engage with Russia without consulting its European allies or Ukraine have underscored the urgent need for Europe to take charge of its own defence. This geopolitical reality has forced European leaders to acknowledge that relying on US support is no longer a guaranteed strategy, accelerating discussions on independent military capabilities and funding mechanisms.

Why is European defence spending rising?

For decades, the US has outspent Europe on defence, contributing more than two-thirds of NATO’s[1] overall budget. However, NATO estimates that in 2024, 23 out of 32 members met the 2% GDP[2] defence spending target, compared to just seven members in 2022 and three in 2014[3]. More ambitious goals are being discussed. Poland is leading the way with a 4.12% of GDP defence budget, while discussions at NATO suggest some countries may need to increase spending to 3% or higher1.

Figure 1: NATO allies defence spending following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Source: Atlantic Council, WisdomTree. 2024 numbers are estimates. Iceland excluded as it does not have a standing army. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

Adding another layer of complexity is the US Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative, which is beginning to reshape US defence priorities. The shift from cost-plus to fixed-price contracts under DOGE is putting financial pressure on defence companies most exposed to the US, which may see constraints on long-term spending commitments. This could have two contrasting effects: while it may limit US capability to fund European defence through NATO, it could also drive European nations to increase domestic procurement and reduce dependency on US defence systems.

Additionally, emerging security threats, including cyber warfare, artificial intelligence (AI)-driven military technology, and the growing presence of authoritarian regimes, have reinforced the need for increased defence investments. Europe’s reliance on outdated Cold War-era military equipment is another critical factor, pushing leaders to modernise their arsenals.

How will Europe fund its defence expansion?

Ramping up defence spending is a monumental task, especially given high sovereign debt levels across Europe. Yet, leaders are exploring creative solutions to secure the necessary funding. One approach is to reallocate existing European Union (EU) budgets, with discussions centring on repurposing unspent Cohesion Funds and Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) loans. However, legal restrictions within EU treaties may limit their direct application to military expenditures.

Another potential route is the issuance of European Defence Bonds, mirroring the successful NextGenerationEU pandemic recovery fund. By pooling resources at the EU level, this could offer a coordinated and cost-effective funding mechanism.

At the same time, private investment and public-private partnerships are gaining traction. Defence contractors and institutional investors are increasingly seen as strategic partners in financing large-scale projects, particularly in weapons systems, cyber defence, and artificial intelligence. Governments may leverage these collaborations to accelerate procurement and technological advancements.

Despite these options, one thing is clear—Europe must find a sustainable funding model to support its defence ambitions without derailing economic stability. Whether through EU-level financing, national budget reallocations, or private-sector involvement, securing long-term defence investment will be paramount in ensuring Europe’s security and strategic autonomy.

Impact on defence stocks: can the strong run continue?

European defence stocks have had a strong run since 2022, driven by surging order books, government contracts, and the realisation that military spending is no longer optional. Over the past year, Europe defence stocks rose 40.8%, outpacing broader European equities (+11.4%)[4]. Defence stocks trade at a historical P/E[5] ratio of ~14x, slightly above the long-term average, though still below peak multiples[6]

There are three key trends fuelling defence stock momentum:
• Backlogs at record highs: European defence contractors are sitting on unprecedented order books, with consensus forecasting 2024-29 CAGRs[7] of ~11% for sales and ~16% for both adjusted EBIT[8] and adjusted EPS[9]. These growth rates compare to just 8%, 11% and 12%, respectively, for the 2019-24 period[10].

Figure 2: European defence sector growth forecast

Source: Company Data, Visible Alpha Consensus, WisdomTree as of 31 January 2025. Forecasts are not an indicator of future performance and any investments are subject to risks and uncertainties.

• Government commitments: with long-term contracts locked in and additional spending likely, demand visibility remains strong.
• EU’s push for strategic autonomy: The European Commission has proposed a European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS), aimed at spending at least 50% of procurement budgets within the EU by 2030 and 60% by 2035[11].

Conclusion: a new era for European defence

The European defence sector is entering a new era of investment and strategic autonomy. With rising geopolitical risks and uncertainty over US support, European nations are taking proactive steps to build a more robust and self-sufficient military ecosystem. While funding challenges persist, the momentum behind higher budgets, technological investments, and NATO commitments makes this shift not just necessary, but inevitable.

With the EU backing structural shifts in procurement, defence stocks remain well-positioned, particularly those with exposure to land (for example, ammunition, vehicles) and air (for example, air defence, missiles, drones) domains.

Aneeka Gupta, Director, Macroeconomic Research, WisdomTree

This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

[1] NATO = The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (an intergovernmental transnational military alliance of 32 member states).

[2] GDP = gross domestic product.

[3] NATO 2023 Vilnius Summit Declaration.

[4] Bloomberg, Europe defence stocks are represented by the MSCI Europe Aerospace & Defence Index and European Equities represented by MSCI Europe Index.

[5] P/E = price-to-earnings.

[6] Bloomberg as of 31 January 2025.

[7] CAGR = compound annual growth rate.

[8] EBIT = earnings before interest and taxes.

[9] EPS = earnings per share.

[10] Company data, Visible Alpha Consensus, WisdomTree as of 31 January 2025.

[11] European Commission: Joint communication to the European Parliament, the Council as of August 2024.


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4MMR ETF ger exponering mot försvarsindustrin

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Global X Defence Tech UCITS ETF USD Accumulating (4MMR ETF) ISIN IE000JCW3DZ3, strävar efter att spåra Mirae Asset Defence Tech-index. Mirae Asset Defence Tech-index spårar företag över hela världen som är aktiva inom militär- och försvarsteknologi.

Global X Defence Tech UCITS ETF USD Accumulating (4MMR ETF) med ISIN IE000JCW3DZ3, strävar efter att spåra Mirae Asset Defence Tech-index. Mirae Asset Defence Tech-index spårar företag över hela världen som är aktiva inom militär- och försvarsteknologi.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,50 % p.a. Global X Defence Tech UCITS ETF USD Accumulating är den enda ETF som följer Mirae Asset Defence Tech-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Global X Defence Tech UCITS ETF USD Accumulating är en mycket liten ETF med 1 miljon euro tillgångar under förvaltning. ETF lanserades den 10 september 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Skäl att överväga ARMR

Långsiktiga katalysatorer för potentiell tillväxt: Sedan 2020 har de globala försvarsutgifterna växt med en årlig takt på 4,4 %, en ökning med cirka 4 gånger från nivåerna före pandemin, och nått den högsta någonsin på 2,44 biljoner dollar. Ökningen på 6,8 % från 2022 till 2023 var den kraftigaste sedan 2009, och tog utgifterna till den högsta nivån som någonsin registrerats (Källa: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, april 2023).

Försvarsinnovation: Regeringar kan i framtiden i allt högre grad förlita sig på avancerade militära system som kräver specialiserad hårdvara, vilket driver efterfrågan på sensorer, AI-chips och nätverkslösningar. Detta kan underblåsa försvarsinnovation, potentiellt inklusive avancerad robotik och AI-drivna vapen. USA utsåg cyberrymden som sin femte militära domän, vilket understryker den avgörande rollen för tekniska framsteg i modernt försvar (Källa: Association of the United States Army, november 2022).

Differentierad exponering: Defense Tech kan spänna över en rad sektorer och teman, inklusive industri, cybersäkerhet, AI och augmented reality. Men till skillnad från den civila marknaden är försvarets intäkter i hög grad bundna till militära behov, som vanligtvis inte är korrelerade med allmänna ekonomiska cykler.

Handla 4MMR ETF

Global X Defence Tech UCITS ETF USD Accumulating (4MMR ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
Borsa ItalianaEURARMR
London Stock ExchangeGBPARMG
London Stock ExchangeUSDARMR
SIX Swiss ExchangeCHFARMR
XETRAEUR4MMR

Största innehav

Vikt (%)KortnamnNamnLand
12.12PLTR USPALANTIR TECHN-AUSA
8.96LMT USLOCKHEED MARTIN CORPUSA
8.27RTX USRTX CORPORATIONUSA
8.02NOC USNORTHROP GRUMMAN CORPUSA
7.51LHX USL3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES INCUSA
7.18GD USGENERAL DYNAMICS CORPUSA
6.88BA/ LNBAE SYSTEMS PLCStorbritannien
5.98RHM GRRHEINMETALL AGTyskland
5.46LDOS USLEIDOS HOLDINGS INCUSA
3.75HO FPTHALES SAFrankrike

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De bästa börshandlade fonderna för tyska utdelningsaktier

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En investering i tyska utdelningsaktier, i alla fall sådana med hög utdelning anses av många vara en solid investering. Utdelning betalas vanligtvis av lönsamma och etablerade företag. För investerare som söker regelbunden inkomst i tider med låga räntor kan tyska utdelningsaktier ge attraktiv avkastning.

En investering i tyska utdelningsaktier, i alla fall sådana med hög utdelning anses av många vara en solid investering. Utdelning betalas vanligtvis av lönsamma och etablerade företag. För investerare som söker regelbunden inkomst i tider med låga räntor kan tyska utdelningsaktier ge attraktiv avkastning.

Det finns två huvudindex tillgängliga för att investera med ETFer i tyska högutdelningsaktier. Denna investeringsguide för tyska utdelningsaktier hjälper dig att navigera mellan särdragen hos DivDAX®-index och DAXplus® Maximum Dividend-index samt de börshandlade fonder som spårar dem. Det gör att du kan hitta de mest lämpliga ETFerna för dig genom att rangordna dem enligt dina preferenser.

Den största tyska utdelnings-ETFerna efter fondstorlek i EUR

1iShares DivDAX UCITS ETF (DE)567 m
2Deka DAXplus Maximum Dividend UCITS ETF292 m
3Amundi DIVDAX UCITS ETF Dist79 m

Den billigaste tyska utdelnings-ETFerna efter totalkostnadskvot

1Amundi DivDAX II UCITS ETF Dist0.25% p.a.
2Amundi DIVDAX UCITS ETF Dist0.25% p.a.
3Deka DAXplus Maximum Dividend UCITS ETF0.30% p.a.

En jämförelse mellan olika index på tyska utdelningsaktier

DivDax® vs. DAXplus Maximum Dividend®

DivDax®DAXplus® Maximum Dividend
Antal ETFer31
Antal aktier1525
InvesteringsuniversumDAX®: 40 tyska aktierHDAX®: appr. 100 tyska aktier. Alla aktier inkluderade i DAX®, MDAX® och TecDAX®
IndexrebalanseringÅrsvis
(september)
Halvårsvis
(Maj och november)
UrvalskriterierHistorisk direktavkastning, sista utdelning i förhållande till aktiekursen på utdelningsdagenFörväntad direktavkastning, bolag som betalar utdelning under de kommande 6 månaderna och har den högsta förväntade direktavkastningen, baserat på stängningskursen på rapportdagen
IndexviktMarket cap (free float)
(kvartalsvis)
Förväntad direktavkastning
(halvårsvis)

DivDax®-index: De 15 bästa tyska utdelningsaktier i DAX®-index

DivDax®-indexet innehåller de 15 bolagen med högst direktavkastning av alla 40 DAX®-bolag. Aktieurvalet baseras på den historiska direktavkastningen, den sista utdelningen i förhållande till aktiekursen på utdelningsdagen. Indexet är viktat av fritt flytande börsvärde.

Metodik för DivDAX® faktabladsmetodik

  • 15 DAX®-aktier med den högsta direktavkastningen
  • Indexomräkning sker årligen i september
  • Aktieurval baseras på historisk direktavkastning
  • Index viktat med fritt flytande börsvärde
  • Maximal vikt per beståndsdel är 10 %

DAXplus® Maximum Dividend Index: De 25 bästa tyska utdelningsaktier i HDAX®-index

DAXplus® Maximum Dividend-index fokuserar på aktiers förväntade utdelningar. Detta index inkluderar endast företag som kommer att betala utdelning under de kommande sex månaderna. Teoretiskt är det möjligt att alla bolag i indexet byts ut på ombalanseringsdagen.

Urvalsuniversumet för DAXplus® Maximum Dividend-index består av alla företag som ingår i DAX®, MDAX® och TecDAX®. Dessa tre benchmarkindex sammanfattas i HDAX®-index. I DAXplus® Maximum Dividend-index viktas de utvalda aktierna enligt deras förväntade direktavkastning, som beräknas på basis av stängningskursen för aktierna vid valet.

Metodik för DAXplus® Maximum Dividend Factsheet-metodik

  • 25 aktier med den högsta direktavkastningen från HDAX®-index
  • Förutsättning: rankas bland de största 75 procenten och de mest likvida 65 procenten av alla företag i HDAX®
  • HDAX® inkluderar alla företag inom DAX®, MDAX® och TecDAX®
  • Indexomräkning sker halvårsvis i maj och november
  • Aktieurval baseras på bolag som betalar utdelning under de kommande 6 månaderna och som har den högsta förväntade direktavkastningen, beräknad utifrån stängningskursen på rapportdagen
  • Index viktat enligt förväntad direktavkastning
  • Maximal vikt per beståndsdel är 10 %

Tyska utdelnings-ETFer i jämförelse

När man väljer en tysk utdelnings-ETF bör man överväga flera andra faktorer utöver metodiken för det underliggande indexet och utvecklingen för en ETF. För bättre jämförelse hittar du en lista över alla tyska utdelnings-ETFer med detaljer om kortnamn, storlek, kostnad, utdelningspolicy, hemvist och replikeringsmetod.

För ytterligare information om respektive börshandlad fond, klicka på kortnamnet i tabellen nedan.

Emittent
ISIN
KortnamnStorlek
EUR
Avgift
%
Utdelnings-
policy
HemvistReplikerings-
metod
iShares DivDAX UCITS ETF (DE)
DE0002635273
EXSB5670.31%UtdelandeTysklandFysisk replikering
Deka DAXplus Maximum Dividend UCITS ETF
DE000ETFL235
EL4X2920.30%UtdelandeTysklandFysisk replikering
Amundi DIVDAX UCITS ETF Dist
LU2611731741
C003790.25%UtdelandeLuxemburgFysisk replikering
Amundi DivDAX II UCITS ETF Dist
DE000ETF9033
E903650.25%UtdelandeTysklandFysisk replikering

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