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Monthly crypto market update and performance attribution of Hashdex Crypto-Index ETPs

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10 juli, 2024

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Please find below our monthly crypto market update and performance attribution for our Crypto-Index ETPs for June 2024.

You’ll also find a commentary from our research analysts on Bitcoin’s current short-term price action, suggesting a potential entry point on the asset class. Our optimistic mid-term perspectives for this market remain unchanged (see my email from end of June).

Our flagship ETP on the Nasdaq Crypto Index (HASH or HDX1) recently surpassed $100 million in AUM. To support further growth, and since we are optimistic on its potential performance, we are waiving the TER fee until it reaches $1 billion in AUM.

Hashdex Crypto Index ETPs: performances (USD) as of end of June 2024
• Beta Index ETP – Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH or HDX1): June -9%, YTD +36%, 12m +99%.

• Smart-Beta Index ETP – Crypto Momentum Index ETP (HAMO or HDXM): June -10%, YTD -1%, 12m +76%.

Market Update

June was a challenging month for crypto assets, with the Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) declining by 9.3%. However, in the past 12 months, the NCI has achieved significant growth, up 99%, with eight positive and four negative months. Despite the recent downturn, several short-term catalysts suggest a potential inflection point in the crypto market, driven by rising ETF demand and increasing institutional interest.

• Altseason on the Horizon: As discussed in Samir Kerbage’s latest CIO Notes, we are approaching a phase where altcoins are expected to outperform, coinciding with potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and the US elections.

• Macroeconomic Tailwinds: Increased global liquidity and anticipated Fed rate cuts by Q4 provide a favorable backdrop for risk assets, including crypto.

• US Election Impact: The upcoming US election is likely to create a more favorable regulatory environment for crypto, with both major parties adjusting their stances to attract crypto-supportive voters.

• Institutional Interest: The recent progress in crypto ETFs marks a pivotal moment, opening doors to significant institutional capital inflows. Our decision to waive fees for the Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH) reflects our confidence in the growing demand.

• Cyclical Timing: Historical data shows that buying crypto assets in the current phase of the cycle (60-90 days post-Bitcoin halving) often results in substantial upside and minimizes downside risk.

Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) relative to other asset class in June 24

Source: Hashdex, as of 30/06/24.

June was quite positive for traditional risk assets. Driven mainly by the performance of technology sector companies, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices appreciated by 3.6% and 6.3%, respectively. Crypto assets, decoupled and posted negative returns.

June’s Performance attribution

Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI): Negative performance was widespread among the NCI’s constituent assets, notably -10.6% (Bitcoin), -21% (Chainlink), and -21.2% (Avalanche).

Source: Hashdex, as of 30/06/24.

Crypto Momentum Factor Index

Source: Hashdex, as of 30/06/24.

Correlation (3m) to traditional asset classes

Source: Hashdex

Research commentary on recent price action of Bitcoin

Is it 2023 all over again?

• While Bitcoin’s price action since early March might seem uneventful and disappointing, this consolidation phase is not unusual. Looking back to 2023, after Bitcoin entered the $26,000 to $30,400 range, it remained there for about 224 days (7 and 1/2 months) before finally breaking out into the $40,000s.

• Currently, following the significant upward movement due to the success of spot ETFs in the US, bitcoin’s weekly closes have remained between $61,500 and $71,250 for around 112 days (almost 4 months).

• If the pattern from 2023 repeats, the next upward move for Bitcoin might still be a few months away, possibly beginning between late September and early October of this year.

• Although past performance is not a guarantee of future results, this comparison suggests that the current ”boring” period is maybe just ”business as usual,” and that a significant upswing may be on the cards for the last quarter of 2024.