This week, all eyes are on the upcoming CPI and PPI data, crucial for gauging US inflation trends. A higher-than-expected reading would signal persistent inflation, likely leading the U.S. Federal Reserve to maintain its high interest rate regime. This outcome would naturally shift investor attention away from cryptoassets, as investors seek the relative safety of fixed-income assets, like U.S. Treasuries. That being said, U.S. inflation does appear to be on a downturn, with GDP decreasing to 1.4% in the first quarter of the year, a rapid deceleration from the end of last year. Growth slowing down is important for prices to be tamed. Last month’s PCE reading also came in at 2.6%, in line with expectations. Furthermore, the latest jobs report highlighted that the total number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits rose for the ninth straight week, reaching 1.86M, the highest level since November 2021! Coupled with unemployment rising to 4.1%, this indicates a labor market slowdown, which could ease inflationary pressures further.
However, global liquidity is falling steeply as shown in Figure 1 below, evidenced by a 13% increase in U.S. repo volume in June. This indicates that financial institutions are turning to collateralized borrowing to secure short-term funds, signaling reduced cash availability and higher borrowing costs. Similarly, in Europe, the EU repo volume crossed over €300B, tightening liquidity conditions further. Less global liquidity means reduced cash flow into risk-on assets, potentially pressuring the crypto market despite dwindling inflationary pressures.
Figure 1 – EU and U.S. Central Bank Balance Sheet
Source: TradingView
Looking within crypto, Bitcoin is currently facing a combination of industry-native factors that are contributing to the recent price decline. The German government has been consistently selling close to 1,000 BTC or almost $58M per day, over the last week, from their seized stash originating from the pirating website Movie2K. This ongoing selling pressure could continue for approximately two to three more weeks until the rest of their holdings standing at 26K BTC are liquidated. Additionally, the Mt. Gox repayment program has commenced, with nearly 47,000 BTC transferred to unidentified wallets that have not made any further moves yet. This indicates that this amount, equating to $2.7B worth of BTC, will be the first stack reimbursed back to creditors.
It’s worth highlighting though that creditors will receive their allocation over multiple days through different exchanges, which should somewhat mitigate the selling pressure. Tax considerations are also another reason why the selling is unlikely to materialize in a short timeframe given the price appreciation that BTC has undergone in the last decade since the exchange’s hack.
That said, Bitcoin’s liquidity appears sufficient to withstand potential selling pressure without significant market impact. Even on the slowest days, the average inflow to exchanges has been around an average of 20K BTC, as shown below in Figure 2. Additionally, it takes approximately 500 BTC on the most liquid exchange, Bitfinex, to cause a 2% drop in BTC price, and an average of 250 BTC on the next three most liquid platforms to produce a similar price movement. Therefore, a 10-15% drawdown seems plausible for the worst-case scenario of creditors selling all their holdings immediately, which we don’t believe will be the case. In addition, individual investors with large amounts could also sell over the counter (OTC) to get a better rate and avoid price slippage, which could further reduce the market impact of their BTC offloading.
Figure 2: Total transfer volume of BTC to exchanges
Source: Glassnode
Another factor to consider is miners’ selling pressure. After disposing of nearly 30K BTC in June, miners have finally reduced their selling activity in the past two weeks. This marks their current reserves at around 1.9M BTC, seen below in Figure 3, the lowest point in the last 10 years. Finally, Bitcoin’s mining difficulty is set to decrease by 5%, marking the second largest drop since the FTX collapse. This reduction will benefit miners by enabling them to produce more Bitcoin with less effort, likely improving their profitability.
Figure 3: Bitcoin Miners Balance
Source: Glassnode
On another positive note, on-chain data shows that Long-term holders (LTHs) have stopped reducing their BTC supply since late June. This is a positive development, as LTHs maintaining a stable supply is crucial for Bitcoin to sustain its upward momentum. Similarly, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio, which compares its current market price to its ”realized price” (the average price at which each coin was last moved), suggests that Bitcoin is currently trading at levels similar to June 2021 when it was around $30K. Notably, Bitcoin rebounded from the $30K price level to reach its all-time high later in 2021. This could be an encouraging sign of Bitcoin’s growth potential in terms of relative valuation during the current market cycle.
Figure 4: Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV)
Source: Glassnode
Altogether, there are potential catalysts that could turn the tide in the coming months. For instance, a resurgence in ETF inflows could offset the selling pressure precipitated by the influx of BTC entering the market. Notably, there were days in Q1 when the regulated vehicle absorbed more than 10K BTC, as depicted below in Figure 5. Further, the arrival of new market participants, such as registered investment advisors (RIAs) representing the wealthiest investors, could significantly alter the market’s supply and demand dynamics. In addition, the approval of Ethereum ETFs expected anytime within the next two weeks could also reignite interest in the market. Even if inflows are anticipated to be at best 25% of the $10B invested in Bitcoin’s ETFs in the first few months of the year. It’ll nevertheless catalyze broader interest in the market and can be expected to benefit tokens of the Ethereum ecosystem. Finally, election season is another catalyst for crypto. Particularly in the U.S., Bitcoin has become a polarizing campaigning tool for the Republicans as Trump led the way in advocating for the largest crypto asset by market cap. In fact, the Republican party has officially included the advocacy for BTC as part of their 2024 election campaign, which shows the growing influence of crypto within US politics.
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
En ny börshandlad fond från Global X handlas sedan i torsdags på Xetra och Börse Frankfurt. Global X European Infrastructure Development UCITS ETF (B41J) följer utvecklingen av Mirae Asset European Infrastructure Development Index. Indexet inkluderar företag noterade i Europa som är involverade i byggande och utveckling av stora ekonomiska, sociala och digitala infrastrukturprojekt i Europa.
Detta inkluderar företag som är involverade i planering och konstruktion av infrastrukturprojekt, inklusive datacenter, samt produktion och försäljning av råvaror, kompositmaterial och produkter för infrastruktur. Det omfattar även företag som är involverade i försäljning och uthyrning av tung anläggningsutrustning och relaterade produkter, drift och underhåll av transportnät och tillverkning och försäljning av energiinfrastrukturprodukter.
Namn
ISIN
Avgift
Utdelnings-policy
Referensindex
Global European Infrastructure Development UCITSETF EUR Acc
IE000PS0J481
0,47 %
Ackumulerande
Mirae Asset European Infrastructure Development Index
Produktutbudet i Deutsche Börses XTF-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 215 ETFer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på cirka 15 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer i Europa.
iShares Developed Markets Property Yield UCITSETF (IQQ6 ETF) med ISIN IE00B1FZS350, strävar efter att spåra FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Dividend+-index. FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Dividend+-index spårar börsnoterade fastighetsbolag och Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS) från utvecklade länder över hela världen exklusive Grekland, som har en prognostiserad ettårig utdelningsavkastning på två procent eller mer.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,59 % p.a. iShares Developed Markets Property Yield UCITSETF är den billigaste och största ETF som följer FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Dividend+ index. Denna replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (kvartalsvis).
iShares Developed Markets Property Yield UCITSETFär en mycket stor ETF med tillgångar på 1 100 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 20 oktober 2006 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Varför IQQ6?
Exponering mot utvecklade marknader fastighetsbolag med en ettårig prognostiserad direktavkastning på 2 %
Direktinvestering i börsnoterade fastighetsbolag och REITS
Fonden strävar efter att spåra resultatet för ett index som består av börsnoterade fastighetsbolag och Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS) från utvecklade länder, exklusive Grekland, som också uppfyller utdelningskriterierna.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.
Denna börshandlade fonds TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,18 % p.a. Franklin Sustainable Euro Green Corporate 1-5 Year UCITSETF (Acc) är den enda ETF som följer Franklin Sustainable Euro Green Corporate 1-5 Year index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) i denna ETF ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
Denna ETF lanserades den 31 oktober 2023 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Fonden strävar efter att bidra till miljömål genom att tillhandahålla exponering mot främst den europeiska marknaden för gröna företagsobligationer med en kort till medellånga löptid på mindre än 5 år, samtidigt som den maximerar totalavkastningen. Fonden klassificeras som artikel 9 enligt EU:s förordning om hållbar finansiering (”SFDR”). Fonden investerar huvudsakligen i obligationer som är märkta gröna och denominerade i europeiska valutor.
Handla GCOR ETF
Franklin Sustainable Euro Green Corporate 1-5 Year UCITSETF (Acc) (GCOR ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.