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Market underpricing UK rate hike risk
ETF Securities FX Research: Market underpricing UK rate hike risk
Highlights
- Upside potential for GBP despite the mixed message from the Bank of England (BOE) keeping volatility elevated. The market is underpricing the chance of rate hikes.
- Rising real interest rates will continue to be supportive of Sterling (GBP) in coming months.
- Positioning for GBP against the USD has rebounded to historical averages, but remains depressed against the Euro, which is an overcrowded trade.
One year on from the last rate cut, the Bank of England (BOE) has kept rates on hold, with the MPC voting 6-2 in favour of the decision (roughly the same as last month). Although policy remains unchanged, GBP should remain supported by what is expected to be a tighter policy path in 2017/2018. Indeed, Governor Carney has indicated that policy may need to be tightened at a faster rate than the market is currently pricing.
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Currency volatility has made a persistent move upward in recent weeks, largely to the detriment of the Pound. A relatively more hawkish policy stance by the UK central bank will support the Pound as Brexit negotiation outcomes remain obscure. As we believe inflation will remain stubbornly high, real interest rate differentials will become an increasingly important indicator for FX markets. Rising real interest rate differentials in the US continue will remain a supportive influence for GBP.
Cautious Bank of England
While a decidedly cautious tone was struck by Governor Carney at the BOE press conference last week, tighter policy is coming: if UK economic growth continues at the rate the BOE has forecast, the market is underpricing the amount of policy tightening that is necessary. The market is only pricing in a 50% chance of a rate hike by end March 2018.
The UK economy remains somewhat mixed after the EU Referendum, with the unemployment rate at pre-crisis levels and evidence that both the manufacturing and services sector are growing in a robust manner. However, negative real wage growth and plummeting consumer confidence remain a constraint for the household sector.
The reason for the additional BOE stimulus (a rate cut and additional asset purchases) a year ago was appropriately forward looking, as Governor Carney quoted; ‘the weaker medium-term outlook for activity…[will lead to] an eventual rise in unemployment’. The UK central bank seems to have become less proactive since then, highlighting that the UK is currently ‘in the teeth’ of the squeeze for households and both consumption growth and business investment will improve further in coming months.
Inflation pressure mounts
Meanwhile, inflation remains elevated in the UK and well above the BOE’s target. The longer this continues, the greater the chance of expectations becoming unanchored, especially if energy price gains are sustained. While inflation hasn’t surprised to the upside in recent months, market implied inflationary expectations remain elevated (well above a year ago), and above other major economies. Inflation is expected to remain above the BOE target for the entire BOE forecast horizon, a period of three years. The BOE’s credibility is on the line, because it appears to be becoming less proactive with policy and reacting to events that have, and may not, occur i.e. a hard Brexit.
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Current BOE policy remains extremely accommodative. There may be uncertainties around the Brexit negotiations, but we believe emergency interest rate settings do not seem appropriate. Indeed, Governor Carney notes that there are limits to what monetary policy can do relating to the Brexit situation. We expect that negotiations surrounding Brexit will remain in flux and given there is unlikely to be significant progress made, the worst-case scenario has already been digested by the FX market. In turn, the BOE is likely to unwind their Brexit induced rate cut from last year in H2 2017.
The key sentence in the BOE’s Monetary Policy Summary report is ‘The combination of high rates of profitability, especially in the export sector, the low cost of capital and limited spare capacity, supports investment by UK firms over the forecast period, offsetting the effect of continued uncertainties around Brexit’. Surely if the economic uncertainty surrounding Brexit is offset, then the 2016 rate cut and additional stimulus should be unwound…if not in 2017, then when?
Just a day after the meeting, the mixed messages to the market continued: Deputy Governor Broadbent, who voted to keep rates unchanged, commented that ‘there may be some possibility for interest rates to go up a little bit’. This is reminiscent of the previous meeting that was interpreted dovishly by the market, only for the ‘doves’ to signal tighter policy was an issue that needed discussion only days later. Mixed messages are an impediment for economic stability and consumer and business confidence.
Meanwhile, gradually tighter Fed policy is already priced into the USD. Although we expect the broad USD index is in a bottoming process, a move higher will be gradual and predicated on political risks fading, something that will take time given investor focus on the incompetence of the Trump administration. Accordingly, the more hawkish policy that we expect from the BOE will bring forward expectations of a rate hike in the fourth quarter and forcing GBP higher in H2 2017.
How the market is positioned
GBP positioning has rebounded against the USD, in line with the recent more bullish performance and is now at levels consistent with longer-term historical averages.
(click to enlarge)
Against the Euro, GBP looks extremely attractively priced – hovering around record low levels. We feel that the Euro strength is at risk of an unwind as the ECB remains conservative in its policy approach in the face of the elevated Euro. Compared to historical long-term averages, positioning for the Euro highlights a very overcrowded trade.
The bottom line…
The mixed messages from the BOE are confusing investors and keeping GBP volatility elevated. We expect the BOE to unwind its Brexit-induced rate cut of 2016 in the second half of 2017, but not to remove its balance sheet stimulus from the economy. GBP will benefit from tighter policy settings. We believe that GBP will consolidate above the 1.30 level and potentially break to the upside, approaching 1.35.
For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
Important Information
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).
Last week, I was in Washington, DC to attend the DC Blockchain Summit and to meet with regulators and policymakers to share our experiences as a crypto-focused asset manager over the last seven years.
The Summit, hosted by The Digital Chamber, included speeches from dozens of members of Congress, regulators, and industry leaders. After listening to presentations and speaking with a number of regulators and policymakers I have one key takeaway: Regulatory clarity for crypto will come much faster than I previously anticipated.
A dramatic shift in tone
As I wrote in January, US policymakers and government leaders—at nearly every level—are embracing this technology. For years, the lack of clear rules for digital assets in the US has been a major obstacle for institutional investors and financial firms looking to enter the crypto space. However, this past week in DC, as well as several of the conversations I’ve had with advisors and wealth managers over the last several weeks, has left me with an even higher sense of optimism.
One of the most striking takeaways from my meetings was the shift in how policymakers are discussing crypto. Just a year ago, many in Washington viewed digital assets primarily through the lens of risk—concerns over fraud, illicit finance, and speculative volatility dominated the conversation. While these concerns still exist, the discussions now are much more nuanced and focused on the opportunities that crypto can create to the American economy and how to address these risks through a clear regulatory framework.
Bipartisan support for legislation
Perhaps the most encouraging sign is the concrete progress being made on both legislative and regulatory fronts. Several key developments indicate that clearer guidelines for crypto businesses and investors could arrive sooner than expected. There is growing bipartisan momentum behind crypto-related legislation. The House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee are moving forward with stablecoin legislation, and it is possible legislation could be signed into law as early as this summer. Stablecoins have also been a key focus of regulatory discussions, with growing consensus that they should be subject to clear guidelines similar to those governing payment systems and money market funds.
House and Senate committees are also actively discussing proposals that aim to define the jurisdiction of regulatory agencies, clarify the status of digital assets, and establish consumer protections. Unlike previous years, these efforts are being taken seriously by both parties, increasing the likelihood of meaningful legislative progress.
Adding to these regulatory discussions is the growing demand for crypto exposure from institutional investors. This demand is influencing policymakers and regulators, as they recognize that a lack of clarity is pushing innovation overseas.
What does this shift mean for investors?
The acceleration of regulatory clarity is a significant development for investors. While the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs last year was a watershed moment, it’s just the beginning. Several large financial institutions, including major banks and asset managers, are actively exploring tokenization, digital asset custody, and blockchain-based financial infrastructure. These institutions are engaging with regulators, advocating for a clear framework that allows them to enter the market with confidence.
Uncertainty has been one of the biggest barriers to broader crypto adoption by financial institutions and institutional investors in particular. As regulations become clearer this year, we expect to see:
• Increased institutional participation: With regulatory uncertainty diminishing, more traditional financial institutions will feel comfortable offering crypto products and using crypto technologies such as stablecoins to offer more efficient services, driving further mainstream adoption.
• Growth in tokenization and blockchain use cases: Clearer regulations will pave the way for asset tokenization, improving efficiency in markets like real estate, bonds, and private equity.
• A stronger US crypto market: By establishing a clear regulatory framework, the US can assert itself as a global financial leader, which we believe will help spur more regulatory clarity in other jurisdictions.
Final thoughts
The message from Washington is clear: crypto regulation is coming, and it’s coming faster than many expected. While there are still hurdles to overcome, the shift from uncertainty to structured regulation is well underway. For investors, this marks an important transition. Clearer rules will reduce risks, enhance market stability, and unlock new opportunities for institutional and retail participants alike.
At Hashdex, we remain committed to navigating these changes and providing investors with access to the best opportunities in this evolving landscape. As we move forward, continued engagement with regulators, policymakers, and financial institutions will be key. The crypto industry has a critical role to play in shaping the future of regulation, and by working collaboratively, we can help ensure that the next phase of crypto’s growth is built on a foundation of clarity and trust.
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