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Market Commentaries on the US election from Jupiter Asset Management

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8 år sedan

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9 november, 2016

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Market Commentaries on the US election from Jupiter Asset Management

Charlie Thomas, manager of the Jupiter Global Ecology Growth SICAV:

Donald Trump’s rhetoric during his campaign will likely place pressure in the short term on renewable energy companies, but looking through the noise, he won’t need to remove clean energy subsidies as the existing policy will in fact already phase out subsidies by the end of his first term, in recognition that the pace of renewable technology progress means that they will largely no longer be required.

While it is still too early to predict the long-term consequences of the election, both in the White House and on Capitol Hill, we are mindful that despite a rancorous campaign, one of the few areas that the democrats and republicans found common ground is the pressing need for US infrastructure investment. This bodes relatively well for companies providing environmental solutions particularly in the water, smart energy and rail transport infrastructure.

Sebastian Radcliffe, manager of the Jupiter North American Equities SICAV fund:

The difficulty in assessing the impact of a Trump win is the scope of uncertainty as to what he would actually do. The short term impact is likely negative for equities as the greater uncertainty translates into a higher risk premium. However based on the broad thrust of his comments so far he is likely to initiate substantial fiscal stimulus that could materially accelerate the economy. While the market will fret over the uncertainty, the reality is that there is a material separation of powers where substantive legislative change requires approval of both houses of congress and there are sufficient moderate Republicans to join their Democrat Congressional colleagues in halting some of the more wild eyed initiatives that might come out of the new President.

Ariel Bezalel, manager of the Jupiter Dynamic Bond SICAV fund:

Donald Trump’s victory has raised the level of market uncertainty we can expect over the coming months and as such is likely to prove negative for risk assets (equities, credit spreads) in the short term. Conventionally, a risk off environment, in this case the end of the US election campaign resulting in a Trump victory, should benefit US Treasuries short term. However, medium term this is unlikely to be the case since Trump has been particularly vocal on the need to boost fiscal spending, saying he wants, at the very minimum, to double Hillary Clinton’s proposed $275bn infrastructure programme, a measure he said he would fund via debt issuance. A debt-funded infrastructure programme of this scale could help to stimulate the economy and be quite inflationary – an environment that would be negative for rates and fairly positive for equities. Therefore, longer term we expect the US yield curve to steepen.

We did not position our portfolio specifically to benefit from a Trump or a Clinton win. However, generally, it is our belief that monetary policy has reached its limits, whether it be in the US, Europé or Japan among others; future stimulus is very likely to be fiscal in nature. Trump is likely to deliver an expansionary policy to encourage economic growth. It would have been the same if Clinton had won. This shift in thinking about the nature of stimulus going forward was one of the key reasons why we reduced the duration of the portfolio significantly since July from 5.1 to 2.9 years today. We did this mainly by selling our medium and long dated US Treasuries and initiating a short position in the bund (around 10% of the portfolio) back when they were trading with negative yields.

Additionally we have:

Put in place some credit spread hedges (2.16% North American HY CDX and 2.95% European Crossover)
Trimmed the longer dated investment grade and high yield bonds we own. 50% of the portfolio has a maturity under 2 years.
Positions in gold mining convertibles (1.9% of the portfolio). These should help in a risk-off environment.

Jason Pidcock, manager of the Jupiter Asia Pacific Income SICAV fund:

In foreshadowing this Trump win, investors have been selling out of equities and keeping their powder dry. If this continues, and the fear of a recession under a Trump presidency spreads, we believe it is likely that the US Federal Reserve may well postpone its much-anticipated December rate increase.

Paradoxically, such a scenario might create an ideal environment in which the Jupiter Asia Pacific Income Fund could flourish; bond prices would be pushed up, yields would fall and investors seeking income would be practically forced to continue to search for yield in equities. Then again, what good is outperformance when you’re only able to do so on a relative basis against a turbulent market.

Asian stocks that derive a significant portion of their revenues from the US market may see short to medium term volatility, driven by market sentiment. Within our fund, these are mainly IT and electronics companies like Hon Hai, Delta and TSMC, that are based in Taiwan and play a big role in the Apple/iPhone supply chain.

At a country level, we believe the Philippines will continue to be a risk: whether President Duterte likes it or not, the country does have economic ties to the United States. It has one of the largest call centre operations in the world, and American companies are a huge employer in this field. If there is one small consolation for us, it is that Trump’s election means Duterte is arguably no longer the most controversial head of state in the world! Trump, we believe, is likely to spark any number of diplomatic rows as his presidency gets underway, but for the Philippines, we think a lot of the bad news has already been priced in. We remain overweight, but aren’t adding any more positions until we see how things pan out.

The information contained in this press release should not be relied upon by private investors or any other persons to make financial decisions.

This communication, including any data and views in it, does not constitute an invitation to invest or investment advice in any way.

Market and exchange rate movements can cause the value of an investment to fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than originally invested.

The views expressed are those of the author at the time of writing, are not necessarily those of Jupiter as a whole and may be subject to change. This is particularly true during periods of rapidly changing market circumstances. Every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of any information provided, but no assurances or warranties are given.

Issued by Jupiter Asset Management Limited (JAM). JAM is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and its registered address is The Zig Zag Building, 70 Victoria Street, London, SW1E 6SQ.

No part of this communication may be reproduced in any manner without the prior permission of JAM.

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iShares och Franklin Templeton listar nya ETFer på Xetra

Publicerad

18 timmar sedan

den

17 april, 2025

Redaktionen

iShares S&P 500 3% Capped UCITS ETF investerar i de 500 största amerikanska företagen från de ledande branscherna i den amerikanska ekonomin, där inget enskilt företag står för mer än 3 procent av indexviktningen.

Franklin S&P 500 Screened UCITS ETF investerar i de nuvarande 408 största amerikanska företagen i S&P 500-indexet som anses vara miljömedvetna och socialt ansvarsfulla. Viktningen av företag justeras baserat på deras S&P Global ESG-poäng för att uppnå ett bättre totalt ESG-poäng än huvudindexet.

Franklin S&P World Screened UCITS ETF investerar i stora och medelstora företag från 24 utvecklade länder världen över som anses vara miljömedvetna och socialt ansvarsfulla. Viktningen av företag justeras baserat på deras S&P Global ESG-poäng för att uppnå ett bättre totalt ESG-poäng än S&P World Index.

Namn	ISIN Kortnamn	Avgift	Utdelnings- policy
iShares S&P 500 3% Capped UCITS ETF USD (Acc)	IE000YIXESS9 SP3C (EUR)	0,20%	Ackumulerande
Franklin S&P 500 Screened UCITS ETF (Acc)	IE0006FAD976 FSPU (EUR)	0,09%	Ackumulerande
Franklin S&P World Screened UCITS ETF (Acc)	IE0006WOV4I9 FSPW (EUR)	0,14%	Ackumulerande

Produktutbudet inom Deutsche Börses ETF- och ETP-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 404 ETFer, 198 ETCer och 256 ETNer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på mer än 21 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer och ETPer i Europa.

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BE28 ETF företagsobligationer med förfall 2028 och inget annat

Publicerad

19 timmar sedan

den

17 april, 2025

Redaktionen

Invesco BulletShares 2028 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Dis (BE28 ETF) med ISIN IE000LKGEZQ6, försöker följa Bloomberg 2028 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened-index. Bloomberg 2028 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2028) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2028 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,10 % p.a.. Invesco BulletShares 2028 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Dis är den billigaste ETF som följer Bloomberg 2028 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened index. ETFen replikerar resultatet för det underliggande indexet genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kuponger) i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (kvartalsvis).

Invesco BulletShares 2028 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Dis är en mycket liten ETF med 1 miljon euro tillgångar under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 18 juni 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Produktbeskrivning

Invesco BulletShares 2028 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF Dist syftar till att tillhandahålla den totala avkastningen för Bloomberg 2028 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index (”Referensindexet”), minus påverkan av avgifter. Fonden har en fast löptid och kommer att upphöra på Förfallodagen. Fonden delar ut intäkter på kvartalsbasis.

Referensindexet är utformat för att återspegla resultatet för EUR-denominerade, investeringsklassade, fast ränta, skattepliktiga skuldebrev emitterade av företagsemittenter. För att vara kvalificerade för inkludering måste företagsvärdepapper ha minst 300 miljoner euro i nominellt utestående belopp och en effektiv löptid på eller mellan 1 januari 2028 och 31 december 2028.

Värdepapper är uteslutna om emittenter: 1) är inblandade i kontroversiella vapen, handeldvapen, militära kontrakt, oljesand, termiskt kol eller tobak; 2) inte har en kontroversnivå enligt definitionen av Sustainalytics eller har en Sustainalytics-kontroversnivå högre än 4; 3) anses inte följa principerna i FN:s Global Compact; eller 4) kommer från tillväxtmarknader.

Portföljförvaltarna strävar efter att uppnå fondens mål genom att tillämpa en urvalsstrategi, som inkluderar användning av kvantitativ analys, för att välja en andel av värdepapperen från referensindexet som representerar hela indexets egenskaper, med hjälp av faktorer som index- vägd genomsnittlig varaktighet, industrisektorer, landvikter och kreditkvalitet. När en företagsobligation som innehas av fonden når förfallodag kommer de kontanter som fonden tar emot att användas för att investera i kortfristiga EUR-denominerade skulder utgivna av det amerikanska finansdepartementet.

ETFen förvaltas passivt.

En investering i denna fond är ett förvärv av andelar i en passivt förvaltad indexföljande fond snarare än i de underliggande tillgångarna som ägs av fonden.

”Förfallodag”: den andra onsdagen i december 2028 eller sådant annat datum som bestäms av styrelseledamöterna och meddelas aktieägarna.

Handla BE28 ETF

Invesco BulletShares 2028 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Dis (BE28 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Borsa Italiana.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

Börs	Valuta	Kortnamn
Borsa Italiana	EUR	BE28
XETRA	EUR	BE28

Största innehav

Namn	CUSIP	ISIN	Kupongränta	Vikt %
Volkswagen Leasing GmbH 3.875% 11/10/28	D9T70CNQ3	XS2745725155	3.875	2.20%
Swedbank AB 4.25% 11/07/28	W94240FJ7	XS2572496623	4.250	1.63%
ABN AMRO Bank NV 4.375% 20/10/28	N0R37XLP3	XS2613658710	4.375	1.62%
Carlsberg Breweries AS 4% 05/10/28	K3662HDY6	XS2696046460	4.000	1.60%
RCI Banque SA 4.875% 14/06/28	F7S48DSE5	FR001400IEQ0	4.875	1.59%
Booking Holdings Inc 3.625% 12/11/28	—	XS2621007231	3.625	1.59%
Banco Santander SA 3.875% 16/01/28	E2R99DB46	XS2575952697	3.875	1.58%
Nordea Bank Abp 4.125% 05/05/28	X5S8VP8C3	XS2618906585	4.125	1.58%
E.ON SE 3.5% 12/01/28	D2T8J8CT1	XS2574873266	3.500	1.57%
General Motors Financial Co Inc 3.9% 12/01/28	U37047BA1	XS2747270630	3.900	1.57%

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Trump’s trade war puts Bitcoin in the spotlight

Publicerad

20 timmar sedan

den

17 april, 2025

Redaktionen

Since U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on April 2, termed ”Liberation Day,” global markets have experienced significant volatility. The S&P 500 shed $5.83 trillion in market value over just four days, marking its steepest drop since the 1950s. Asian markets saw their worst session since 2008, reflecting widespread fears of an economic slowdown.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yields initially fell below 4% as investors sought safety, but by April 8-9, they surged to a seven-week high of 4.515%. This spike, driven by bond market sell-offs potentially from basis trading or China’s strategic moves to pressure U.S. negotiations, suggests a precarious economic situation rather than risk-on sentiment.

On April 9, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries (excluding China, where tariffs jumped to 145%) in an effort to give markets time to absorb the changes and calm volatility. The move sparked a broad rally, with the S&P 500 surging 9.5% for its best day since 2008 and Bitcoin rebounding above $80,000 after a turbulent stretch.

Bitcoin is macro now

Despite persistent concerns about crypto volatility, Bitcoin’s price over the past two weeks has closely mirrored the S&P 500 and has actually been less volatile. This alignment reflects Bitcoin’s growing maturity as an asset class and highlights its resilience. As a highly liquid and accessible asset, it continues to attract investors looking for relative value in turbulent markets.

Sentiment shifts toward crypto ETFs

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $700 million in outflows, while Ethereum ETFs lost $400 million since March, marking a sharp reversal after nine consecutive months of inflows. The pullback points to growing institutional caution amid broader macro uncertainty. Still, on-chain data reveals that long-term holders have been steadily accumulating since January lows, signaling continued confidence in the asset class.

Macroeconomic uncertainty takes center stage

The latest U.S. CPI print came in at 2.4%, which was lower than expected. A rate cut in May still seems premature as markets assess the full impact of new protectionist measures. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has warned that tariffs could raise inflation while slowing growth. As a result, the probability of three rate cuts in 2025 now exceeds 60%. Declining yields may be an early signal of future monetary easing, which could favor risk assets like crypto if economic pressures intensify.

Bitcoin: Dollar’s ally or alternative?

In the face of policy uncertainty, the debate around the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status is gaining momentum. With its decentralized and censorship-resistant design, Bitcoin is emerging as both a potential complement and challenger to the dollar, especially as the U.S. increasingly wields its currency as a geopolitical tool through tariffs and sanctions.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain solid. Hashrate is at all-time highs, regulatory clarity is improving, and long-term holders continue to accumulate. With prices consolidating above $80K, the current correction may offer a strategic opportunity for investors positioning for the next leg of growth, particularly as the macro picture evolves.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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