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Macro backdrop favours Australian equities but headwinds linger

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ETF Securities Equity Research Macro backdrop favours Australian equities but headwinds linger Revival in commodity price

ETF Securities Equity Research Macro backdrop favours Australian equities but headwinds linger

Highlights

  • Revival in commodity prices has improved the macro outlook for Australia’s export driven economy.
  • Positive inflation expectations globally spurred by the repricing of US inflation and rising oil prices will lead to a recovery in wage growth in Australia, helping boost consumption.
  • The Fed model acts as a contrarian indicator for Australian equities and highlights further upside for stocks.
  • The contribution of a minority of companies in the energy and mining sector have caused the dividend payout ratio to appear unrealistically higher.

Commodity upswing benefits macro outlook

Rising commodity prices in 2016, in particular iron ore (+80%) and coal (+300%), have pushed Australia’s trade balance into surplus for the first time since 2014. The improved terms of trade (export prices relative to import prices) will support domestic demand. However since the rise in exports was due to a rise in prices rather than volumes, it is unlikely to translate into higher real Q4 GDP growth. We view the contraction of Q3 2016 GDP as temporary and expect to see a pickup in housing, Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) supply, small business profits and retail sales to restore Q4 2016 GDP growth.

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The base effects of higher fuel prices will drive headline CPI inflation higher, currently at 1.3%, towards the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2-3% target by Q1 2017. Furthermore, the re-pricing of US inflation subsequent to Trumps presidential victory and his pro-growth policies has raised inflation expectations globally.

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This should alleviate some of the downside risks posed by prior weak inflation expectations and generate a recovery in wages. We are now starting to see a gradual rise in real wage growth since the latter half of 2015. Total household debt is excessive at 186% of income on average, its highest level since 1977. For this reason, a revival in wage growth is the key to underpin consumption, known to account for 56% of economic activity.

Stability in China is pivotal for trade

The Chinese economy picked up pace during 2016 owing to increased infrastructure spending and a buoyant property market. Chinese strength is best evident in Australia in the strong demand and pricing of bulk industrial commodities, bearing in mind they are by far its biggest trading partner worth 30% of exports. However, Donald Trump’s presidency raises the potential for a rise in US-China trade friction and attempts to threaten the outlook for Australian exports. On the positive side, demand for tourism and education services in Australia might get a boost, as an alternative to the US should these frictions materialise.

Rebalancing economy

There are signs that other sectors of the economy are moving out from the shadow of the resources sector. We expect to see the benefits of accommodative monetary conditions and the weaker Australian dollar to bolster the competitiveness of non-resource exports across tourism, education and services.

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Fed model acts as a contrarian indicator

The combination of an improved macro outlook supported by higher material prices and the global reflation theme have helped swing Australian corporate earnings growth forecasts for 2017 back to positive territory after stagnating for 2 years. However a careful look at valuations suggest Australian equities are not cheap. The cyclically adjusted price to earnings (CAPE) ratio for the MSCI Australia Index at 18.3x is at the benchmark’s long-term median CAPE at 18x. The chart below depicts the Fed model (based on the ratio of forward equity earnings yield and 10-year government bond yields) as a contrarian indicator for Australian equities. As the ratio trends downwards (suggesting bonds favoured over equities), Australian equities tend to outperform. Currently the ratio at 1.36 has been steadily declining and is reverting to its long-term median of 1.31 signifying further upside for Australian equities.

Higher yields drive momentum

Dividend yields have been the main driver of short and medium term returns of the Australian equity market. Australian companies’ dividends are high by international standards, yielding 5.6% on average. Domestic investors and pension funds rely heavily on the Australian equity markets as a source of income as they benefit from franked dividends, an agreement in Australia eliminating the double taxation of dividends.

More importantly, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reveals that the percentage of the population that is in retirement i.e. aged 65 years and above grew by 37% since 2006. ABS has projected that this segment will rise 21% by 2023. Given this structural demographic shift among the investor base, we expect the demand for high yielding equities to persist as the aging population seek to generate more stable income.

Dividend payments are sustainable

In 2016, the dividend payout ratio (that measures the proportion of a company’s earnings paid to investors as dividends) attained its highest level at 190% in more than a decade. Implying that Australian companies were paying more than they earned. This raised concerns on the sustainability of ongoing dividend payments. However, we found a minority of companies in the energy and mining sectors skewed the ratio higher. On stripping out their contribution to the overall ratio, we got a more realistic value of 78%, which did not have a material impact on the dividend yield of the index.

In addition, on analysing the combination of dividends paid and share buybacks as a percentage of free cash flow, we noted buybacks were a small portion of the total amount, rendering dividend payments not as stretched.

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In fact, the rise of the dividend payout ratio was an outcome of the reduced profitability of mining and energy firms as opposed to an increase in dividend payments. This helped reinstate our view that the durability of future dividend payments remains intact.

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

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Crypto’s political tailwinds are blowing hard: Lessons from a week in Washington

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Last week, I was in Washington, DC to attend the DC Blockchain Summit and to meet with regulators and policymakers to share our experiences as a crypto-focused asset manager over the last seven years.

Last week, I was in Washington, DC to attend the DC Blockchain Summit and to meet with regulators and policymakers to share our experiences as a crypto-focused asset manager over the last seven years.

The Summit, hosted by The Digital Chamber, included speeches from dozens of members of Congress, regulators, and industry leaders. After listening to presentations and speaking with a number of regulators and policymakers I have one key takeaway: Regulatory clarity for crypto will come much faster than I previously anticipated.

A dramatic shift in tone

As I wrote in January, US policymakers and government leaders—at nearly every level—are embracing this technology. For years, the lack of clear rules for digital assets in the US has been a major obstacle for institutional investors and financial firms looking to enter the crypto space. However, this past week in DC, as well as several of the conversations I’ve had with advisors and wealth managers over the last several weeks, has left me with an even higher sense of optimism.

One of the most striking takeaways from my meetings was the shift in how policymakers are discussing crypto. Just a year ago, many in Washington viewed digital assets primarily through the lens of risk—concerns over fraud, illicit finance, and speculative volatility dominated the conversation. While these concerns still exist, the discussions now are much more nuanced and focused on the opportunities that crypto can create to the American economy and how to address these risks through a clear regulatory framework.

Bipartisan support for legislation

Perhaps the most encouraging sign is the concrete progress being made on both legislative and regulatory fronts. Several key developments indicate that clearer guidelines for crypto businesses and investors could arrive sooner than expected. There is growing bipartisan momentum behind crypto-related legislation. The House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee are moving forward with stablecoin legislation, and it is possible legislation could be signed into law as early as this summer. Stablecoins have also been a key focus of regulatory discussions, with growing consensus that they should be subject to clear guidelines similar to those governing payment systems and money market funds.

House and Senate committees are also actively discussing proposals that aim to define the jurisdiction of regulatory agencies, clarify the status of digital assets, and establish consumer protections. Unlike previous years, these efforts are being taken seriously by both parties, increasing the likelihood of meaningful legislative progress.

Adding to these regulatory discussions is the growing demand for crypto exposure from institutional investors. This demand is influencing policymakers and regulators, as they recognize that a lack of clarity is pushing innovation overseas.

What does this shift mean for investors?

The acceleration of regulatory clarity is a significant development for investors. While the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs last year was a watershed moment, it’s just the beginning. Several large financial institutions, including major banks and asset managers, are actively exploring tokenization, digital asset custody, and blockchain-based financial infrastructure. These institutions are engaging with regulators, advocating for a clear framework that allows them to enter the market with confidence.

Uncertainty has been one of the biggest barriers to broader crypto adoption by financial institutions and institutional investors in particular. As regulations become clearer this year, we expect to see:

• Increased institutional participation: With regulatory uncertainty diminishing, more traditional financial institutions will feel comfortable offering crypto products and using crypto technologies such as stablecoins to offer more efficient services, driving further mainstream adoption.

Growth in tokenization and blockchain use cases: Clearer regulations will pave the way for asset tokenization, improving efficiency in markets like real estate, bonds, and private equity.

• A stronger US crypto market: By establishing a clear regulatory framework, the US can assert itself as a global financial leader, which we believe will help spur more regulatory clarity in other jurisdictions.

Final thoughts

The message from Washington is clear: crypto regulation is coming, and it’s coming faster than many expected. While there are still hurdles to overcome, the shift from uncertainty to structured regulation is well underway. For investors, this marks an important transition. Clearer rules will reduce risks, enhance market stability, and unlock new opportunities for institutional and retail participants alike.

At Hashdex, we remain committed to navigating these changes and providing investors with access to the best opportunities in this evolving landscape. As we move forward, continued engagement with regulators, policymakers, and financial institutions will be key. The crypto industry has a critical role to play in shaping the future of regulation, and by working collaboratively, we can help ensure that the next phase of crypto’s growth is built on a foundation of clarity and trust.


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SPUT ETC spårar priset på uran

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Sprott Physical Uranium ETC (SPUT ETC), med ISIN XS2937253818, är utformad för att erbjuda investerare ett effektivt sätt att få tillgång till prisutvecklingen hos fysiskt uran.

Sprott Physical Uranium ETC (SPUT ETC), med ISIN XS2937253818, är utformad för att erbjuda investerare ett effektivt sätt att få tillgång till prisutvecklingen hos fysiskt uran.

För att uppnå detta innehar Sprott Physical Uranium ETC, som strävar efter att ge exponering mot priset för fysiskt uran, före avgifter och utgifter, genom att hålla fysiska lager hos tre olika leverantörer.

Den börshandlade produktens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,55 % p.a. Denna ETC replikerar resultatet av det underliggande indexet med en skuldförbindelse med säkerheter som backas upp av fysiska innehav av den underliggande metallen.

Sprott Physical Uranium ETC lanserades den 27 februari 2025 och har sin hemvist på Jersey.

Caset för en fysiskt uran ETC

Obalans mellan utbud och efterfrågan på uran kommer sannolikt att växa: Den växande efterfrågan på kärnenergi överträffar uranproduktionen, som hämmades av historiskt låga priser, och därmed begränsade nya projekt. Detta kan skapa en gynnsam miljö för stigande uranpriser.

Ny tjurmarknad för uran potentiellt under utveckling: Befintligt utbud kanske inte möter framtida efterfrågan, vilket uppmuntrar köpare av icke-nyttigt uran att komma in på marknaden. Verktygen förväntas påskynda inköpen av uran för att säkerställa långsiktig pris- och leveranssäkerhet.

Uran ger pålitlig och ren baslastkraft: Kärnenergi levererar konstant, ren elektricitet dygnet runt, vilket gör den till en kritisk kraftkälla när den globala energiförbrukningen fortsätter att växa.

Produktinformation

Lanseringsdatum27/02/2025
BasvalutaUSD
TER55 bps
ReplikeringsmetodFysisk replikering
HemvistJersey
ISINXS2937253818

Viktiga risker

Priset på uran kan vara volatilt och kan gå upp och ner. När du investerar i en ETC är ditt kapital helt i riskzonen. Investerare kanske inte får tillbaka det belopp de ursprungligen investerade. Uran- och kärnkraftsindustrin kan påverkas av förändringar i politiken/statliga regleringar, säkerhetsbrott, illvilliga terrordåd eller naturkatastrofer. Även om Sprott Physical Uranium Trust har för avsikt att följa det föreslagna investeringsmålet, garanterar emittenten inte fondens resultat.

Handla SPUT ETC

Sprott Physical Uranium ETC (SPUT ETC) är en europeisk börshandlad råvara. Denna ETP handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETC genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
LSEUSDSPUT
LSEGBPSRUF
XetraEuroSPUT

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VanEck ETF utökar sitt kryptoerbjudande med Celestia ETN

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Idag tillkännagav kapitalförvaltaren VanEck ETF noteringen av VanEck Celestia ETN på Euronext Amsterdam och Euronext Paris.

Idag tillkännagav kapitalförvaltaren VanEck ETF noteringen av VanEck Celestia ETN på Euronext Amsterdam och Euronext Paris.

  • Celestia möjliggör säker skalning av blockchain-applikationer
  • Modularitet tillåter utvecklare att bygga och skala nya blockkedjor med lätthet
  • VanEck Celestia ETN är tillgängligt i följande länder: Österrike, Schweiz, Tyskland, Danmark, Spanien, Finland, Frankrike, Italien, Liechtenstein, Luxemburg, Nederländerna, Norge, Polen, Portugal och Sverige

Detta börshandlade certifikat (ETN) gör det möjligt för investerare att delta i utförandet av TIA-tokenet i en investerarföredraget omslag. TIA-token är Celestia-nätverkets ursprungliga kryptovaluta.

Celestia är ett specialiserat blockchain-nätverk designat för att optimera och skala datatillgänglighet, branschens grundläggande skalningsflaskhals. Detta gör det möjligt för utvecklare att enkelt distribuera applikationer i sitt eget blockutrymme med hög genomströmning med full-stack-kontroll.

”Efterfrågan på TIA-token är ett direkt resultat av behovet av Celestias tjänster, eftersom alla interaktioner på Celestia är denominerade och betalda i TIA,” förklarade Menno Martens, Crypto Product Manager på VanEck Europe. ”När fler och fler utvecklare använder Celestias tjänster för att bygga fullstackapplikationer med hög genomströmning, ser vi tillväxtpotential för Celestia.”

VanEck Celestia ETN erbjuder investerare ett reglerat och börshandlat sätt att få exponering för denna innovativa blockchain. Investerare bör dock notera risken för extrem volatilitet i samband med digitala tillgångar.

”VanEcks ETN är ett av de första stegen mot utökad tillgång till Celestia av institutioner”, säger Mustafa Al-Bassam, medgrundare av Celestia och ordförande för Celestia Foundation. ”Snart kommer det att finnas fler sätt att gå med i Celestias ekosystem för alla typer av användare och deltagare.”

Denna ETN spårar MarketVector Celestia VWAP Close Index, som återspeglar priset på TIA-token. Den är helt säkerställd, vilket innebär att de underliggande tillgångarna faktiskt köps och förvaras säkert i kylförvaring. VanEck samarbetar med Bank Frick, ett reglerat förvaringsinstitut i Liechtenstein, för att säkerställa höga standarder för förvaring av kryptovaluta över sina ETNer.

Produktinformation

NamnVanEck Celestia ETN
IndexnamnMarketVector Celestia VWAP Close Index
ISINDE000A4AKZB4
KortnamnVTIA
Registerade länderAT, CH, DE, DK, ES, FI, FR, IT, LI, LU, NL, NO, PL,PT, SE
Ticker Euronext AmsterdamVTIA NA
Ticker Euronext ParisVTIA FP
IndexleverantörMarketVector Indexes GmbH
Total expense ratio (TER)1,5 %

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