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Low BTC volatility, Visa with StarkNet, Solana NFTs leave, and More!
Markets were relatively quiet during the holidays as Bitcoin’s weekly volatility hovers near all-time lows. As of Monday’s close, Bitcoin and Ethereum traded up 2.88% and 5.12%, respectively. In addition, the biggest movers of last week were Solana (-15.65% in TVL) among the alternative Layer 1s, Optimism (6.98%) among the major Layer 2s, and Lido (9.17%) among the most prominent DeFi players.
Figure 1: Weekly TVL and Price Performance of Major Crypto Categories
Source: CoinGecko, data as of December 26 (close price).
Key takeaways
• Bitcoin’s weekly volatility is at near all-time lows.
• Visa is proposing to launch automatic recurring payments on top of StarkNet.
• CME Group and CF Benchmark launch DeFi reference rates for Aave, Synthetix, and Curve.
• Solana’s popular NFT projects, DeGods and Y00ts, will leave the blockchain and migrate to Ethereum and Polygon, respectively.
Spot and Derivatives Markets
Figure 2: BTC Funding Rates
Source: lookintobitcoin
If we look at the derivatives market, BTC funding rates have been consistently positive since December 16, indicating that many investors are positioned to the upside after the market downturn caused by the FTX debacle last month.
On-chain Indicators
Figure 3: Weekly BTC Volatility
Source: BitMEX, TradingView
The BitMEX Weekly Historical Bitcoin Volatility Index is at near all-time lows. There are only two other instances where we saw similar levels of volatility in the last five years, yielding opposite outcomes. The most recent precedent is July 2020, which marked the beginning of last cycle’s bull run. The other precedent is October 2018, before Bitcoin experienced a 50% drawdown from $6,000 to $3,000. In both cases, we saw a steep rise in volatility, a pattern we could observe in the coming weeks.
Next Week’s Calendar
Read our full report here
The cryptoassets market is performing better ahead of the Merge slated to take place on September 15, you can track its progress here and read more about its implications in our primer. Bitcoin is up by almost 12% over the past week, its TVL has also risen by 13%. Whereas Ethereum jumped by nearly 11%. As shown in the figure below, Solana and Avalanche have also jumped in returns by 18% and 14% respectively, however, their TVL have dipped by almost -2% and -6% respectively. Regarding scalability solutions and DeFi protocols, Optimism saw an 18% increase in performance and Lido, a 12% increase in TVL.
Figure 1: 7-Day Price and TVL Developments of Cryptoassets in Major Sectors
Source: 21Shares, Coingecko, DeFi Llama
Key takeaways
• Bitcoin mining difficulty increased by almost 10% since August 29
• ETH official switch to POS is less than 48 hours away
• Frax joins Aave and Curve in building an all-inclusive DeFi ecosystem
• Google Cloud to become an Axie Infinity Ronin sidechain validator
Spot and Derivatives Markets
Figure 2: ETH Spot to Futures Volume (30-D MA)
Source: TheBlock, CryptoCompare
The figure above indicates the looming speculation around the Merge, given the declining spot volume against the futures.
On-chain Indicators
Figure 3: Bitcoin Mining Difficulty
Source: Coinglass
Bitcoin mining difficulty increased by almost 10% since August 29, it’s the highest increase the network has seen since May 2022. Although this indicator isn’t exactly directly proportional to the returns on the cryptoasset, a rising Bitcoin mining difficulty shows a healthy network attracting more miners, making the Bitcoin network more secure with computing power.
From the Press
Last week we celebrated the inception of our new parent company, 21.co and our unicorn status which caught the attention of several media outlets and publications around the world.
• On the occasion, our co-founders have appeared on Swiss TV; you can watch here.
• From the US: Axios, 21Shares’ parent gets a $2 billion valuation
• From France: CryptoActu: 21Shares, l’émetteur de multiples ETP crypto, valorisé à 2 milliards de dollars
• From Italy: Advisor Online, 21.co è ufficialmente parent company di 21Shares e Amun
• From Germany: Fonds Professionell, 21Shares erhält neue Struktur
• From the UAE: Reuters, Crypto firm 21.co raises $25 million to value it at $2 billion
Next Week’s Calendar
Read full report here
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
- Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
- Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
- What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?
Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has amassed a staggering $43 billion in Bitcoin, positioning itself at the forefront of the corporate “reserve race.” Under the leadership of Bitcoin maximalist Michael Saylor, the company now boasts an $84 billion market cap. But with such an aggressive strategy, how sustainable is its approach—and what risks lie ahead? We break it down in today’s analysis.
Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
A drop below $72,000 could flush longs, while a breakout above $90,000 may squeeze shorts. One key positive indicator is that Bitcoin continues to print higher lows since March 10, which preserves a bullish market structure in our view. Dive into our technical analysis.
What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?
Imagine owning a slice of a skyscraper or a piece of fine art with just a few clicks. Tokenization, the act of converting ownership rights to real-world assets (RWAs) into tradable tokens, has surpassed $10 billion in on-chain value, unlocking global 24/7 access to once-exclusive markets with liquidity, efficiency, and yield. Find out how it works.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
Since President Trump appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chair two months ago, many investigations into crypto businesses have been dropped, as the SEC moves away from regulation by enforcement and works to create a framework for digital assets. As regulations become clearer and news flow turns more positive, crypto prices—which dropped sharply this week—should begin to better reflect the new regulatory landscape in the US.
We believe this regulatory shift could ultimately help trigger the next leg of the current bull run, as investors better understand the significance of regulatory clarity and seek to acquire bitcoin and altcoins at what we believe are currently very favorable levels.
Market Highlights
SEC Dismisses Crypto Enforcement Actions
The SEC dropped its enforcement actions against crypto-related companies Kraken, Consensys, and Cumberland DRW.
This indicates a shift in SEC’s regulatory approach, favoring clearer guidelines over enforcement actions. Such a pivot could foster a more predictable environment, encouraging innovation within the sector.
Banks to Engage in Crypto Activities
The FDIC has rescinded previous guidelines which prevented financial institutions from engaging with crypto activities without prior sign-off.
By removing bureaucratic hurdles, banks may more readily offer crypto-related services, potentially leading to broader adoption and integration of digital assets.
Bitcoin ETFs Inflow Streak Surpassed $1 Billion
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a 10-day inflow streak exceeding $1 billion marking the longest such streak in 2025.
This underscores growing institutional and retail investor confidence in Bitcoin as an asset class that helps increase market stability and possibly paving the way for the approval of other crypto-based financial products.
Market Metrics
All NCITM constituents had negative performance last week, with XRP (-10.8%) and UNI (-10.7%) seeing the steepest declines. ETH also experienced a sharp drop (-9.1%), contributing to NCITM’s underperformance relative to BTC (-2.9%). The NCITM -4.2% decline reflects a broader risk-off sentiment in the crypto market, as investors reassess their positions amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.
NCITM (-4.2%) extended its underperformance last week, deepening year-to-date losses. Traditional indices like the S&P 500 (-1.5%) and Nasdaq 100 (-2.4%) saw smaller declines. The gap between crypto and other risk assets continues to widen, while gold has emerged as the top performer in 2025, gaining nearly 20% amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. This trend highlights a growing risk-off sentiment, with investors shifting toward defensive assets and away from high-volatility investments.
Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
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