ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Largest monthly inflows into Robotics ETPs since creation
- Robotics ETP saw US$52m of inflows since the beginning of the month, the largest monthly inflows since its creation.
- Energy ETPs outflows suggest investors are taking profits.
- Cocoa prices have reached a multi-year low, becoming appealing for technical buyers. We saw US$5.6m of inflows last week.
Thematic equities such as Robotics and cyber security saw US$27.3m inflows last week. Robotics remain in favour, with inflows year-to-date totalling US$81m from which US$52m of inflows month-to-date.
Energy ETPs saw US$23.3m flows withdrawal last week as investors took profits. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday that oil supplies fell by around 1.5m barrels per day (bpd) last month, including by 1m bpd reduction from OPEC. The OPEC cut compliance of 90% of pledged oil output curbs in January. However, the massive increase in US crude oil imports (to a four and a half year high) and the trend increase in rig count in the US partly offset the reduction in oil supply, suggesting energy prices overextended recently. Investors took profits as there is a limited upward potential in prices over the medium term.
Inflows into gold ETPs continue as price returns to November 2016 levels. We saw US$8.2m inflows into gold ETPs as the price of gold briefly touched US$1240/oz (up from US$1220/oz the week before). The 10bps decline on 10yr US Treasuries yields at the beginning of last week supported gold. We believe that the high degree of geopolitical uncertainty will limit downward pressures on gold prices.
Strong inflows in cocoa of US$6.4m last week suggest tactical buying as price fell to a five-year low. The 6.3% price decline last week brought cocoa price to a five-year low at US$2338/ton. This price drop reflects a correction after a larger-than-expected production while the threat of the Harmattan (a dry and dusty wind) – initially expected to disrupt 50% of global production – did not materialise. We believe the current multi-year low in cocoa’s price is perceived as a buying signal by contrarian investors.
European corporate bonds ETFs saw US$4.3m outflows. We believe the ECB’s decision to reduce the amount of monthly bonds purchase by EUR20bn after April coupled with the highly uncertain outcomes from the upcoming presidential elections have weighed on investor interest in European corporate bonds. The French far-right Presidential candidate, Le Pen, who is currently in second place according to recent polls, has promised the return of the French franc, threatening a redenomination of EUR1.7bn of French debt into francs if she were elected with the potential to default.
Video Presentation
Morgane Delledonne, Fixed Income Strategist at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
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