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Is US wage growth finally stepping out?
The calendar keeps flying by, and kicking off Q4 economic data, investors recently received the US October employment situation report. The money and bond markets have ‘graduated’ of sorts, and the typical headlines regarding the unemployment rate and new job creation have been rendered more secondary in importance at this point of the cycle, with wages now moving to centre stage. According to the latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), average hourly earnings (AHE), on a year-over-year basis, broke out of its recent range, begging the question; is US wage growth finally stepping out to the upside?
Without a doubt, the one ‘sticking point’ that seems to have alluded the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in their policy outlook has been the lack of any significant wage growth. Sure, the path of AHE has been on the positive side of the ledger, but the trajectory, or pace of the upside movement, has appeared to have confounded market participants.
Figure 1: Average hourly earnings
Source: Bureau of Labour Statistics, as of 2 November 2018
The graph above highlights how the year-over-year rate of increase for AHE had been locked in a rather narrow band of roughly +2.5%-+2.8% since the end of 2015. It seemed as if every time there was a surprise to the upside, the following month or so reversed this performance, rendering any unexpected gain as a ‘false start’. However, over the last three months, the BLS has reported that the AHE annualized gain has twice hit the ‘+3%’ threshold, and in the case of the just released October data, the +3.1% increase represented the best showing since early 2009.
With two out of last three months producing ‘3’ handles for AHE growth, investors may finally be witnessing the long-awaited upside momentum in wages. As we have seen in prior episodes, the trajectory may not always be a straight-up move to the upside, but it does look as if progress is being made on this front. The scope of wage growth throughout various industries was also encouraging, an important point to consider because it can help to rule out the dreaded ‘aberrational’ result which tends to ultimately get cancelled out in future reports.
Conclusion
While the United States Treasury (UST) market did sell-off a bit on response to this data, the back-up in the UST 10-year yield was not necessarily noteworthy, nor did it signal any newfound concerns on the inflation front just yet. Inflation expectations, as measured by ‘breakeven’ spreads were only modestly higher after the jobs report. The bond market and the Fed have been down this road before and will more than likely wait to see the ‘whites of the eyes’ of sustainable wage growth before responding. In fact, this is just the type of result the Fed has long been waiting for. However, developments on the wage front will need to be monitored closely, because any upside surprises to this data, or inflation in general, is not currently factored into UST 10-year yields.
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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- Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
- Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
- What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?
Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has amassed a staggering $43 billion in Bitcoin, positioning itself at the forefront of the corporate “reserve race.” Under the leadership of Bitcoin maximalist Michael Saylor, the company now boasts an $84 billion market cap. But with such an aggressive strategy, how sustainable is its approach—and what risks lie ahead? We break it down in today’s analysis.
Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
A drop below $72,000 could flush longs, while a breakout above $90,000 may squeeze shorts. One key positive indicator is that Bitcoin continues to print higher lows since March 10, which preserves a bullish market structure in our view. Dive into our technical analysis.
What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?
Imagine owning a slice of a skyscraper or a piece of fine art with just a few clicks. Tokenization, the act of converting ownership rights to real-world assets (RWAs) into tradable tokens, has surpassed $10 billion in on-chain value, unlocking global 24/7 access to once-exclusive markets with liquidity, efficiency, and yield. Find out how it works.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
Since President Trump appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chair two months ago, many investigations into crypto businesses have been dropped, as the SEC moves away from regulation by enforcement and works to create a framework for digital assets. As regulations become clearer and news flow turns more positive, crypto prices—which dropped sharply this week—should begin to better reflect the new regulatory landscape in the US.
We believe this regulatory shift could ultimately help trigger the next leg of the current bull run, as investors better understand the significance of regulatory clarity and seek to acquire bitcoin and altcoins at what we believe are currently very favorable levels.
Market Highlights
SEC Dismisses Crypto Enforcement Actions
The SEC dropped its enforcement actions against crypto-related companies Kraken, Consensys, and Cumberland DRW.
This indicates a shift in SEC’s regulatory approach, favoring clearer guidelines over enforcement actions. Such a pivot could foster a more predictable environment, encouraging innovation within the sector.
Banks to Engage in Crypto Activities
The FDIC has rescinded previous guidelines which prevented financial institutions from engaging with crypto activities without prior sign-off.
By removing bureaucratic hurdles, banks may more readily offer crypto-related services, potentially leading to broader adoption and integration of digital assets.
Bitcoin ETFs Inflow Streak Surpassed $1 Billion
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a 10-day inflow streak exceeding $1 billion marking the longest such streak in 2025.
This underscores growing institutional and retail investor confidence in Bitcoin as an asset class that helps increase market stability and possibly paving the way for the approval of other crypto-based financial products.
Market Metrics
All NCITM constituents had negative performance last week, with XRP (-10.8%) and UNI (-10.7%) seeing the steepest declines. ETH also experienced a sharp drop (-9.1%), contributing to NCITM’s underperformance relative to BTC (-2.9%). The NCITM -4.2% decline reflects a broader risk-off sentiment in the crypto market, as investors reassess their positions amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.
NCITM (-4.2%) extended its underperformance last week, deepening year-to-date losses. Traditional indices like the S&P 500 (-1.5%) and Nasdaq 100 (-2.4%) saw smaller declines. The gap between crypto and other risk assets continues to widen, while gold has emerged as the top performer in 2025, gaining nearly 20% amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. This trend highlights a growing risk-off sentiment, with investors shifting toward defensive assets and away from high-volatility investments.
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