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Is the crypto bull market over?
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2 månader sedanden

The second half of February turned turbulent for investors, with both traditional and crypto markets experiencing significant downturns as risk-off sentiment took hold.
Investors reacted to weakening economic indicators—including signals pointing to potentially lower US GDP this quarter—and rising geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, prompting a move away from risk assets. Traditional safe havens such as gold and US treasuries saw inflows, reinforcing the market’s sensitivity to macro uncertainty.
In addition to being impacted by these macro factors, crypto assets faced headwinds from news about the largest exchange hack in history, memecoin craziness, and a perception the US administration isn’t moving fast enough with its crypto-related initiatives. This was quite a lot of negative newsflow in a short period of time, and as a result crypto suffered, with bitcoin (BTC) hitting a three-month low last week, trading over 20% off its most recent all time high.
So, have these events effectively killed the crypto bull market?
The short answer is no. We don’t see any signs recent events are dragging down the bull market and while short-term volatility can be unsettling, it also serves as a reminder that these phases of crypto cycles rarely move in a straight line. Historical bull runs have always included periods of heightened volatility and sharp corrections. The 2020–2021 rally, for example, saw multiple pullbacks of 20% or more before BTC ultimately reached new highs. The current situation is part of the natural market cycle rather than a definitive trend reversal.
BTC performance, volatility, and corrections since 2010

Let’s go a little deeper into recent events why they do not impact the long-term case for crypto.
Long-term holders are “hodling”
If you look at where bitcoin’s recent selling pressure is coming from, it’s from traders and the most very short-term holders. If we look at BTC’s Spent Volume Average Band, a metric that shows how long the coins were held that are being sold, it’s very clear the overwhelming majority of BTC sold in the last week was short-term trading activity. In fact, almost 90% of the selling activity from February 21 to February 26 was BTC held for less than a month.
Recent BTC selling pressure is from trading activity

We can also see from looking at this data that the average holding period for BTC investors is nearly five years. In other words, long-term holders of BTC do not react to near-term events.
BTC holding period has increased over time

But what should investors make about the recent exchange hack, the ongoing memecoin frenzy, and the perception that President Trump might not deliver on his crypto promises? A few thoughts on these events and why I don’t think they will have a lasting impact on the investment case for the crypto asset class.
• Bybit hack: This exchange breach last week resulted in the loss of 401,000 ETH (approximately $1.3 billion), sending shockwaves through the crypto community. While Bybit has reassured users that losses will be covered, the attack has reignited security concerns, particularly as exchange-related hacks have declined in recent years. Hashdex was not impacted by this event given the very strict vetting criteria we have in place for all of the third parties we interact with, including custodians and exchanges. However, while the incident serves as a stark reminder of the importance of vetted custody solutions, we do not see the hack having a long-term negative impact on the fundamentals we believe are driving opportunities in the crypto asset class.
• Memecoin madness: The recent market decline can also be attributed in part to a liquidity shift driven by the memecoin craze. Tokens such as TRUMP, which saw heavy trading during the presidential inauguration, and LIBRA, which surged this month following the controversy surrounding Argentina’s President Javier Milei, have drawn significant market attention and raised concerns over who benefits from this type of activity. While memecoins often generate short-term excitement, some investors worry that capital has been diverted away from more productive sectors of the crypto economy, increasing overall market vulnerability. This is certainly a valid concern and I believe that the short-term memecoin activity helps make the case for investing in an institutional quality index like the Nasdaq Crypto Index, which has strict criteria for vetting crypto assets. There will continue to be a lot of noise in the crypto space for the foreseeable future, and we think investors are well-served by being able to track a benchmark that has a methodology built to eliminate this type of superfluous activity.
• Trump’s delays: During his campaign, President Trump expressed significant support for crypto, even proposing the US consider a bitcoin stockpile. However, there is a perception among some that his administration has not moved fast enough on this initiative and others. These developments take time—including the important work underway at the SEC’s Crypto Task Force—and we have strong conviction that the regulatory landscape for crypto will continue to dramatically improve in the US in the coming months and years.
Where do we go from here?
Bitcoin’s recent price action has pushed it below its $90,000–$110,000 trading range, and some technical indicators suggest a potential move lower if selling pressure persists. However, there are key levels that could serve as support.
Options market data from Deribit shows that the highest open interest for BTC options is at the $80,000 strike price, indicating that this level could act as a floor in the near term. Historically, such areas of high open interest tend to provide price support as traders hedge positions and market makers adjust exposure.
If macroeconomic conditions stabilize or there is more favorable news toward crypto from the US government, we could see BTC recover to the $90,000–$105,000 range in the coming weeks. In other words, the bull market is fully on track and bitcoin remains in line with performance in previous phases.

Regardless of what happens with near-term prices, the structural fundamentals of the crypto market remain strong, and nothing in the past week suggests a major shift in the broader bull cycle. Institutional adoption continues to progress, with increasing interest in spot bitcoin ETFs and broader integration of blockchain technology in traditional finance. The long-term trajectory remains positive, but as with any market, patience and risk management are key.
As history has shown, bull markets rarely move in a straight line, but investors with a clear, long-term strategy are best positioned to navigate this volatility and capitalize on future opportunities.

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Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
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WELC ETF ger exponering mot företag inom sällanköpsvaror
Publicerad
12 timmar sedanden
28 april, 2025
Amundi S&P Global Consumer Discretionary ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) (WELC ETF) med ISIN IE00061J0RC6, strävar efter att spåra S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Consumer Discretionary index. Det S&P-utvecklade ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Consumer Discretionary-indexet spårar stora och medelstora företag från den diskretionära konsumentsektorn. ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning) beaktas vid valet av värdepapper.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,18% p.a.. Amundi S&P Global Consumer Discretionary ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) är den billigaste ETF som följer S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Consumer Discretionary index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Årligen).
Amundi S&P Global Consumer Discretionary ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) är en mycket liten ETF med 5 miljoner euro förvaltade tillgångar. Denna ETF lanserades den 20 september 2022 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Investeringsmål
AMUNDI S&P GLOBAL CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ESG UCITS ETF DR – EUR (D) försöker replikera, så nära som möjligt, resultatet för S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Consumer Discretionary Index (Netto Total Return Index). Denna ETF har exponering mot stora och medelstora företag i utvecklade länder. Den innehåller uteslutningskriterier för tobak, kontroversiella vapen, civila och militära handeldvapen, termiskt kol, olja och gas (inkl. Arctic Oil & Gas), oljesand, skiffergas. Den är också utformad för att välja ut och omvikta företag för att tillsammans förbättra hållbarhet och ESG-profiler, uppfylla miljömål och minska koldioxidavtrycket.
Handla WELC ETF
Amundi S&P Global Consumer Discretionary ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) (WELC ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.
Börsnoteringar
Största innehav
Denna fond använder fysisk replikering för att spåra indexets prestanda.
Namn | Valuta | Vikt % | Sektor |
AMAZON.COM INC | USD | 18.89 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
TESLA INC | USD | 13.29 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
HOME DEPOT INC | USD | 5.75 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUI | EUR | 5.44 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
TOYOTA MOTOR CORP | JPY | 4.58 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
MCDONALD S CORP COM NPV | USD | 2.63 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
LOWE S COS INC COM US 0.50 | USD | 2.38 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
SONY GROUP CORP (JT) | JPY | 2.25 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
BOOKING HOLDINGS INC | USD | 2.02 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
TJX COMPANIES INC | USD | 1.89 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
Innehav kan komma att förändras

To understand Celestia’s value and its role in the ecosystem, it’s helpful to first understand how traditional blockchain systems are structured.
Most blockchains, like Ethereum or Bitcoin, are monolithic which means they perform all major functions (consensus, data availability, and execution) on a single layer. This design ensures security but according to new modular networks, limits scalability and flexibility.
The modular blockchain thesis, which Celestia is leading, proposes separation of layers and respective responsibilities in the network. Instead of having one network and its validators perform all of its functions, it may be better to have specialized layers:
• Consensus Layer: Ensures that all nodes agree on the order of transactions.
• Data Availability Layer: Ensures transaction data is accessible to all participants.
• Execution Layer: Processes the actual logic and computation of smart contracts.
By unbundling these components, developers can build more efficient, flexible systems that scale far beyond what monolithic blockchains can support. Not all applications need similar levels of security and not all applications need to scale up to millions of transactions. Additionally, one application might be scaling beyond the capabilities of its host network, severely effecting the available data throughput of other applications. This limits developers to the monolithic technology stack provided by a virtual machine such as Ethereum’ EVM.
The Issue of Data Availability
One of the most misunderstood yet crucial components of any blockchain is data availability. In simple terms, it ensures that the data behind each block is fully accessible and verifiable by all participants in the network. Another way to describe it is as the confidence a user can have that the data required to verify a block is really available to all network participants. Data availability is therefore important to all stakeholders of the blockchain ecosystem.
If a block producer withholds data, then nodes cannot verify the block, which leads to potential censorship or fraud.
Traditionally, a blockchain network can offer data availability with the following mechanisms:
• Full Replication: Every node stores the entire blockchain and verifies all data. Secure but not quite scalable.
• Sharding: Breaks the blockchain into smaller pieces (shards), spreading data across nodes. Scalable but highly complex to implement.
• Committee-Based Models: Small groups of nodes are trusted to verify data availability. Efficient, but less decentralized.
Celestia takes a completely different approach using a novel method called Data Availability Sampling (DAS). Instead of requiring every node to download all data, DAS allows lightweight nodes to randomly sample small chunks of a block. If enough pieces are retrievable, the node can confidently assume the full block is available. This slashes resource requirements while maintaining security and decentralization.
Why Data Availability Matters
Data availability might sound like a nerdy technical term, but it’s one of the most important yet one of less invisible parts of how blockchains work.
Let’s say you’re using a crypto app to trade tokens, store art, or move money. Every time you do something, that action (also referred to as a transaction) needs to be recorded and shared with the rest of the network so everyone agrees it happened. If that data disappears or can’t be verified, the whole system becomes untrustworthy. You might think your tokens moved but if no one else can see that record or a different version of that record, it’s as if it never happened.
Here’s a real-life parallel: imagine a public scoreboard at a sports game. If the scorekeeper shows the score to only a few people and then hides the board, how can the rest of the crowd trust the result? Everyone needs to see the score to believe it’s fair. In crypto, data availability is what makes sure the scoreboard is always visible to all participants at any time.
How DAS Changes the Game
Traditionally, ensuring data availability meant every node had to download and verify the entire block of data for any purpose related to particular data inside the block, like reading a whole newspaper just to check one article. Ethereum and most competing monolithic layer-1’s operate this way. It works, but it’s expensive, slow, and becomes less practical as blockchains scale in terms of data throughput required by its Dapps therefore limiting the types of applications that developers can build.
Celestia’s Data Availability Sampling (DAS) is a breakthrough that lets even simple devices (like smartphones) verify that a block’s data is available—by checking just a few random pieces. If enough pieces are found and correct, the network can be confident the full block is truly there and correct.
This innovation means:
• Light clients can safely participate in the network without downloading everything.
• Rollups and app-chains can post their data to Celestia with minimal overhead.
• Scalability skyrockets without sacrificing decentralization.
Celestia’s Role in Scaling Applications
Celestia is the first blockchain designed specifically to be a modular data availability layer. That means it doesn’t execute smart contracts or handle transactions directly, instead, it provides a foundation for others to build new networks, also referred to as rollups.
Developers can launch rollups or full execution environments, and use Celestia to handle the consensus and data availability side. This unlocks several key benefits:
• Massive scalability: Apps can scale independently from each other.
• Customization: Developers choose their own virtual machines, consensus mechanism and execution logic.
• Decentralization: Thanks to DAS, even small devices can validate the system.
This approach flips the script on how we think about launching and scaling blockchains. Instead of competing for space on a monolithic chain, apps get their own chains, backed by Celestia’s secure and scalable data availability layer while giving developers full stack control over their applications.
Celestia Enables Scalability and Offers Full-Stack Control
Using the restaurant example from Sui vs Aptos. Imagine a big, busy restaurant where the chefs, waiters, and cashiers all work in the same small kitchen. It gets crowded, orders take forever, and sometimes things go wrong while the backlog of orders keeps growing. That’s how traditional blockchains work, doing everything in one place.
Now imagine if the restaurant separated the jobs: the chefs cook in a big kitchen, waiters serve from a clean dining area, and the cashiers handle payments at the front desk. Everything runs smoother, faster, and the restaurant can grow in a environment that is less prone to congestion. That is what Celestia is doing for blockchains. Let’s say a small specialty restaurant opens up next door, leveraging Celestia’s register and order management system. That new restaurant can fully focus on delivering the best food and experience to customers, knowing that Celestia’s technology won’t be the limiting factor when scaling up their kitchen. The modularity that Celestia’s restaurant offers is allowing a lot of small scale restaurants to exist without the overhead of individual administrative work. It goes even a step further, Celestia allows you to just use it register while letting smaller restaurants pick their own kitchen (execution environment) and order management system (consensus layer).
In conclusion, Celestia is challenging the believe that blockchains should always be monolithic and blockchains need to offer the same technology stack to all developers on its chain. It is a significant leap forward in the crypto ecosystem and opens possibilities that were previously not feasible.
Diversify Crypto Exposure to Modular Blockchain Technology with the VanEck Celestia ETN
Key features of the VanEck Celestia ETN
• Celestia enables secure scaling of blockchain applications with modular technology.
• Fully-collateralized by TIA in cold-storage.
• Total return of TIA: Tracks the MarketVector™ Celestia VWAP Close Index (MVTIAV).
Why VanEck Crypto ETNs? Here’s why:
• With nearly 70 years in asset management and a strong track record in crypto, we bring deep industry knowledge and proven reliability.
• We combine traditional financial strengths with cutting-edge crypto innovation, backed by a CEO who truly believes in crypto’s future.
• We ensure clarity in our product structures and avoid high-risk or opaque practices, with assets fully backed by cryptocurrency in secure cold storage.
• Our assets are secured by a licensed European bank in Liechtenstein, providing top-tier compliance and security.
• We use the safest institutional custody setup available, prioritizing your security over cost savings.
Crypto is an asset class with high potential returns but investing in digital assets comes with great risk, why choose products that potentially introduce even more risks? Choose VanEck for a secure, transparent, and expertly managed crypto investment experience.
Main Risk Factors:
Investors should note that there is no direct ownership for the crypto assets, but a claim against Issuer to receive such assets.
• Complexity risk: The complexity of the project and its technological concepts make it challenging to assess its viability and valuation.
• Adoption risk: Celestia introduces additional adoption risk as it is uncertain if the concept of modular blockchains will succeed.
• Technology risk: Celestia introduces additional technology risk due to the technology being less mature and therefore could be more prone to bugs and exploits.
• Regulatory Risk: market disruptions and governmental interventions may make digital assets illegal.
• Risk of Losses and Volatility: The trading prices of many digital assets have experienced extreme volatility in recent periods and may continue to do so. There is a risk of total loss as no guarantee can be made regarding custody due to hacking risk, counterparty risk and market risk.
• Other risks specific to this ETN’s Digital Assets can also be found on the VanEck Crypto Academy.
This is not financial research but the opinion of the author of the article. We publish this information to inform and educate about recent market developments and technological updates, not to give any recommendation for certain products or projects. The selection of articles should therefore not be understood as financial advice or recommendation for any specific product and/or digital asset. We may occasionally include analysis of past market, network performance expectations and/or on-chain performance. Historical performance is not indicative for future returns.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
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This information originates from VanEck (Europe) GmbH, Kreuznacher Strasse 30, 60486 Frankfurt am Main, Deutschland and VanEck Switzerland AG, Genferstrasse 21, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.
It is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice. VanEck (Europe) GmbH and its associated and affiliated companies (together “VanEck”) assume no liability with regards to any investment, divestment or retention decision taken by the investor on the basis of this information. Views and opinions expressed are current as of the date of this information and are subject to change with market conditions. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward looking statements, which do not reflect actual results. VanEck makes no representation or warranty, express or implied regarding the advisability of investing in securities or digital assets generally or in the product mentioned in this information (the “Product”) or the ability of the underlying Index to track the performance of the relevant digital assets market.
Investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal up to the entire invested amount and the extreme volatility that ETNs experience. You must read the prospectus and KID before investing, in order to fully understand the potential risks and rewards associated with the decision to invest in the Product. The approved Prospectus is available at www.vaneck.com. Please note that the approval of the prospectus should not be understood as an endorsement of the Products offered or admitted to trading on a regulated market.
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Current performance may be lower or higher than average annual returns shown. Performance shows 12 month performance to the most recent Quarter end for each of the last 5yrs where available. E.g. ’1st year’ shows the most recent of these 12-month periods and ’2nd year’ shows the previous 12 month period and so on. Performance data is displayed in Base Currency terms, with net income reinvested, net of fees. Brokerage or transaction fees will apply. Investment return and the principal value of an investment will fluctuate. Notes may be worth more or less than their original cost when redeemed.
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