Is ether undervalued?

In our 2025 Crypto Investment Outlook, we emphasized the importance of applications in driving blockchain adoption and increasing demand for native tokens. With that in mind, it caught our attention that by January 2025—well past the US election predictions of November 2024—Polymarket had expanded into sports-related prediction markets, reaching 450,000 monthly active traders.

Ethereum’s success depends on the rise of useful applications that drive demand for its infrastructure, which is why the recent growth of platforms like Polymarket should strengthen ETH’s investment thesis, even as it underperforms Bitcoin and competitors like Solana. Time will tell, but we believe investors are currently underestimating ETH’s value, especially given the success of Polymarket, stablecoins, and other platforms dependent on Ethereum.

Market Highlights

Polymarket’s new milestone

Polymarket reached 450,000 monthly active traders, as the platform has diversified it betting pools into sports-related prediction markets.

With a substantial trading volume of $1.6 billion in January alone, we may be witnessing the birth of a key user-driven application.

This milestone connects to our Crypto Investment Outlook for 2025, in which we explained that user-driven applications are key to adoption.

Bitcoin reserve on US agenda

Trump’s “crypto czar” David Sacks stated that a bitcoin reserve is a priority, though it’s still in early stages.

The White House plans to establish formal communication with the crypto industry, with an official announcement expected in the future.

Republican lawmakers are forming a bipartisan working group to draft crypto regulations, supporting Trump’s broader digital asset policies.

Trading volume record on ETH ETFs

US Spot ETH ETFs witnessed record trading volumes of $1.5 billion amid Trump tariff turmoil.

This record volume, aligned with a positive $420M net inflow, supports the growing interest and importance of regulated crypto products.

Market Metrics

This week was underwhelming for the NCITM (-3.4%), following Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on steel and aluminum. Despite these challenges, US crypto-regulated products demonstrated resilience, recording a net inflow of $624 million. The confirmation of a BTC reserve being a top priority for the new administration, signals a great tailwind for the future of digital assets.