ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Investors remain defensive despite fading geopolitical uncertainty
Highlights
- After a tumultuous month for gold, recent price weakness has prompted inflows of US$148mn over the last week.
- Position reduction continues for industrial metals, with outflows of US$45m for the week.
- Thematic equity ETFs, Robotic and Cyber security continued to see steady inflows last week withUS$25mn and US$3mn, respectively.
- Recent price strength in cocoa, has seen investors take profits this week with US$9mn outflows.
After a tumultuous month for gold, recent price weakness has prompted inflows of US$148mn over the last week, with a further US$16mn of inflows into other precious metals.
Negative sentiment over the last month has been primarily focussed on gold, while other precious metals have seen continued inflows, we believe this is due to the preeminent position of the sector as a safe haven destination. Gold, being seen as a risk hedge by many investors, has cooled in price recently due to the lack of news flow on geo-political worries. At the same time, market is continuing to focus on a Fed rate hike in December where market pricing suggests an 80% chance of a rate hike. Predictit.org also highlights the probabilities of the new Fed governorship being a race between Kevin Warsh, currently leading amongst bookies, and Jerome Powell. The former being seen as more hawkish on monetary policy relative to Janet Yellen, while Jerome Powell has similarly dovish views. We believe the prospect of a rate hike and a more hawkish governor is likely to weigh on gold prices in coming months.
We continue to see position reduction for industrial metals, with outflows of US$45m for the week, bringing outflows for the month to US$174m.
Prices for industrial metals have been strong this year having peaked with an average 22% gain. This week has seen further strong performance of 3% off the back of positive manufacturing data from the US and thin trading volumes from China due to Golden week. The outflows have been most concentrated in copper (US$34mn for the week) and the broad basket of industrials metals. The laggard in terms of performance this year, nickel, has seen inflows over the week of US$6mn.
We continue to expect a pullback in industrial metals because there are threats to the current rally due to this strong momentum. Historically, periods in which trading volumes in China have risen sharply have been followed by a correction. These pullbacks are usually an opportunity to shake out momentum trades and allow the market to focus on fundamentals. Given the significant declines in capital expenditure in recent years we continue to see deficits increase. Even though capital expenditure may soon start to increase, there remains long lead times in exploration and development of mines. We expect supplies to remain tight with the market unlikely to achieve balance in the short term.
Thematic equity ETFs, Robotics and Cyber security continued to see steady inflows last week with US$25mn and US$3mn, respectively.
Recent price strength in cocoa, which has risen 7.8% in recent months has seen investors take profits this week with US$9mn outflows.
For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
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