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Investors bullish on the US Dollar, ahead of the FOMC

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Investors bullish on the US Dollar, ahead of the FOMC Fourth consecutive week of gold ETP outflows, totalling US$153.3mn.

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Investors bullish on the US Dollar, ahead of the FOMC

  • Bullish inflows for US Dollar ETPs ahead of the FOMC meeting, totalling US$4.1mn.
  • Investors lose faith in OPEC’s ability to cut production, prompting second week of outflows.
  • Investors bullish on the US Dollar, ahead of the FOMC
  • Fourth consecutive week of gold ETP outflows, totalling US$153.3mn.
  • Agricultural ETPs receive largest inflows in six weeks, led by broad basket exposures.

Bullish inflows for US Dollar ETPs ahead of the FOMC meeting, totalling US$4.1mn. We expect that the US Dollar could experience a near-term setback in a ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ move following the Fed’s second rate rise in the current cycle. While a rate rise is fully priced in, we feel the market is overpricing the chances of the Fed raising its ‘dot plot’ for next year.

Oil ETP outflows continue for the second consecutive week, totalling US$55.5mn. Investors appear to be questioning the ability of OPEC to implement its landmark deal to cut production for the first time in eight years. If implemented in full (alongside non-OPEC cooperation), the headline cut of 1.2 million barrels per day would be a positive move to stabilise oil prices by balancing the market. However, the reference figures for the cuts are inflated and additionally, OPEC has long had a problem with quota enforcement. Under prior quota regimes, Saudi Arabia was relied on to be the country to balance the equation – it appears that this may no longer be the case. Nevertheless, with global oil prices remaining at a level which will encourage greater non-OPEC production, the current oil price is at the upper end of our current expected range.

Outflows from gold ETPs continued for a fourth consecutive week, totalling US$153.3mn, as the Fed’s December rate hike looms. A greater ‘risk-on’ mindset from investors, accompanied by a stronger US Dollar as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) prepares to hike rates for the first time in twelve months has weighed on the price of gold. Nonetheless, we expect the real rate environment to remain depressed as the Fed gets further behind the curve in 2017 as inflation accelerates, and such an environment will remain supportive of gold. Alongside wage growth, the pro-growth policies that the market is so enthusiastic about are likely to be inflationary. A conservative Fed is likely to remain reluctant to hike too quickly to ward off these pressures, leading to a prolonged period of low/negative real rates. Outside the US, central banks continue to pump ever greater amounts of money into the financial system, in turn enhancing the appeal of gold for non-US investors, as monetary policy debases fiat currency.

Agricultural ETPs receive largest inflows in six weeks, led by broad basket exposures. Broad agricultural basket ETPs received US$16.4mn, while long corn ETPs received US$4.8mn, the most in a month. Nonetheless, the fundamental picture hasn’t changed significantly, giving us no reason to be bullish about future price gains.

What to watch this week. It’s all about the Fed. We expect the Fed will raise rates at its December meeting (on Wednesday), but the tone of the statement and Chair Yellen’s press conference will be more neutral than previous rhetoric from Fed Governors.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the ”FCA”).

This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.

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FLXA ETF investerar enligt katolska principer

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Franklin MSCI World Catholic Principles UCITS ETF USD Capitalisation (FLXA ETF), ISIN IE000AZOUN82, försöker spåra MSCI World Select Catholic Principles ESG Universal och Low Carbon-index. MSCI World Select Catholic Principles ESG Universal och Low Carbon Index spårar stora och medelstora värdepapper från utvecklade länder över hela världen. De utvalda företagen screenas enligt deras koldioxidexponering, deras ESG-profil (miljö, social och styrning) och katolska principer. Som ett resultat är företag som är involverade i vapen, hasardspel, vuxenunderhållning, abort, preventivmedel, stamcellsforskning och djurförsök uteslutna.

Franklin MSCI World Catholic Principles UCITS ETF USD Capitalisation (FLXA ETF), ISIN IE000AZOUN82, försöker spåra MSCI World Select Catholic Principles ESG Universal och Low Carbon-index. MSCI World Select Catholic Principles ESG Universal och Low Carbon Index spårar stora och medelstora värdepapper från utvecklade länder över hela världen. De utvalda företagen screenas enligt deras koldioxidexponering, deras ESG-profil (miljö, social och styrning) och katolska principer. Som ett resultat är företag som är involverade i vapen, hasardspel, vuxenunderhållning, abort, preventivmedel, stamcellsforskning och djurförsök uteslutna.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,27 % p.a. Franklin MSCI World Catholic Principles UCITS ETF USD Capitalization är den enda ETF som följer MSCI World Select Catholic Principles ESG Universal och Low Carbon-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Franklin MSCI World Catholic Principles UCITS ETF USD Capitalization är en liten ETF med tillgångar på 34 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 24 april 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Handla FLXA ETF

Franklin MSCI World Catholic Principles UCITS ETF USD Capitalisation (FLXA ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest, SAVR och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
XETRAEURFLXA
Borsa ItalianaUSDFAITH
London Stock ExchangeUSDFIDE

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NVIDIA CORPINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY12,65NVDAUS67066G1040USD
ASML HOLDING NVINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY2,11ASMLNL0010273215EUR
MASTERCARD INC AFINANCIALS2,05MAUS57636Q1040USD
BROADCOM INCINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY2,03AVGOUS11135F1012USD
HOME DEPOT INCCONSUMER DISCRETIONARY1,8HDUS4370761029USD
ADVANCED MICRO DEVICESINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY1,43AMDUS0079031078USD
LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUICONSUMER DISCRETIONARY1,22MCFR0000121014EUR
VISA INC CLASS A SHARESFINANCIALS1,2VUS92826C8394USD
ADOBE INCINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY1,11ADBEUS00724F1012USD
APPLIED MATERIALS INCINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY0,97AMATUS0382221051USD

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5 crypto trends to watch in 2025

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2024 was a landmark year for bitcoin, solidifying its role as a fully institutionalised asset class. 5 crypto trends to watch in 2025

2024 was a landmark year for bitcoin, solidifying its role as a fully institutionalised asset class.

Institutional inflows into physical bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) reached nearly $35 billion globally, signalling a major shift in how traditional investors view crypto. As bitcoin continued to enhance portfolios’ risk-return profiles, more institutional investors followed suit, reshaping the financial landscape.

Looking ahead, 2025 promises to bring exciting developments across the crypto ecosystem. Here are the top five crypto trends to watch.

Fear of being left behind

    The era of bitcoin as a niche investment is over. Institutional adoption is creating a ripple effect, forcing hesitant players to reconsider. Portfolios with bitcoin allocations are consistently outperforming those without, highlighting its growing importance.

    Figure 1: Bitcoin in a multi-asset portfolio

    60/40
    Global Portfolio
    1%
    Bitcoin Portfolio
    3%
    Bitcoin Portfolio
    5%
    Bitcoin Portfolio
    10%
    Bitcoin Portfolio
    MSCI AC WorldBloomberg MultiverseBitcoin
    Annualised Return5.77%6.46%7.83%9.20%12.57%9.07%0.56%56.24%
    Volatility8.79%8.86%9.14%9.62%11.42%13.94%5.05%67.28%
    Sharpe Ratio0.480.550.680.790.960.54-0.200.81
    Information Ratio1.011.011.011.00
    Beta70%71%73%75%81%100%24%181%

    Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree. From 31 December 2013 to 30 November 2024. In USD. Based on daily returns. The 60/40 Global Portfolio is composed of 60% MSCI All Country World and 40% Bloomberg Multiverse. You cannot invest directly in an index. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investment may go down in value.

    With bitcoin’s ability to noticeably improve portfolios’ risk-return profiles, asset managers face a clear choice: integrate bitcoin into multi-asset portfolios or risk falling behind in a rapidly evolving financial landscape. In 2025, expect the competition to heat up as clients demand exposure to this powerhouse cryptocurrency.

    Expanding crypto investment options

      In 2024, regulatory breakthroughs opened the doors for physical bitcoin and ether ETPs in key developed markets. This marked a critical step towards making cryptocurrencies mainstream, providing seamless access to institutional and retail investors alike.

      Figure 2: Global physical crypto ETP assets under management (AUM) and 2024 net flows

      Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree. 02 January 2025. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investment may go down in value.

      In 2025, this momentum is expected to accelerate as the crypto regulatory environment becomes more friendly in the United States and as key developed markets follow Europe’s lead and approve ETPs for altcoins such as Solana and XRP. With their clear utility and growing adoption, these altcoins are strong candidates for institutional investment vehicles.

      This next wave of altcoin ETPs will expand the diversity of crypto investment opportunities and further integrate cryptocurrencies into the global financial system.

      The maturing of Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem

        Ethereum’s role as the backbone of decentralised finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and Web3 is unmatched, but its scalability challenges remain a hurdle. Layer-2 solutions—technologies such as Arbitrum and Optimism—are transforming Ethereum’s scalability and usability by enabling faster, cheaper transactions.

        In 2025, Ethereum’s recent upgrades, such as Proto-Danksharding (introduced in the ‘Dencun’ upgrade), will drive layer-2 adoption even further. Innovations like Visa’s layer-2 payment platform leveraging Ethereum for instant cross-border transactions will underscore the platform’s evolution.

        Expect Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem to power real-world use cases ranging from tokenized assets to decentralised gaming, positioning it as the infrastructure of a truly scalable digital economy.

        Stablecoins: bridging finance and blockchain

          Stablecoins are becoming indispensable to the global financial system, offering the stability of traditional assets with the efficiency of blockchain. Platforms such as Ethereum dominate the stablecoin landscape, hosting stablecoin giants Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), which facilitate billions in daily transactions.

          Figure 3: Key stablecoin chains

          Source: Artemis Terminal, WisdomTree. 05 January 2025. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investment may go down in value.

          As we move into 2025, stablecoins will increasingly interact with blockchain ecosystems such as Solana and XRP. Solana’s high-speed, low-cost infrastructure makes it ideal for stablecoin payments and remittances, while XRP Ledger’s focus on cross-border efficiency positions it as a leader in global settlements. With institutional adoption rising and DeFi applications booming, stablecoins will serve as the backbone of a seamless, interconnected financial ecosystem.

          Tokenization: redefining ownership and revolutionising finance

            Tokenization is set to redefine how we think about ownership and value. By converting tangible assets like real estate, commodities, stocks, and art into digital tokens, tokenization breaks down barriers to entry and creates unprecedented liquidity.

            In 2025, tokenization will expand dramatically, empowering investors to own fractions of high-value assets. Platforms such as Paxos Gold and AspenCoin are already showcasing how tokenization can revolutionize markets for gold and luxury real estate. The integration of tokenized assets into DeFi will unlock new financial opportunities, such as using tokenized real estate as collateral for loans. As tokenization matures, it will transform industries ranging from private equity to venture capital, creating a more inclusive and efficient financial system.

            For the avoidance of any doubt, tokenization complements crypto by expanding the use cases of blockchain to include real-world applications.

            Looking ahead

            2025 is set to be a defining year for crypto, as innovation, regulation, and adoption converge. Whether it is bitcoin cementing its position as a portfolio staple, Ethereum scaling for mainstream use, or tokenization unlocking liquidity in untapped markets, the crypto ecosystem is poised for explosive growth. For investors and institutions alike, the opportunities have never been clearer or more compelling.

            This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

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            FGLR ETF gör hållbara investeringar i hela världen

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            Fidelity Sustainable Research Enhanced Global Equity UCITS ETF Acc (FGLR ETF) med ISIN IE00BKSBGV72, är en aktivt förvaltad ETF.

            Fidelity Sustainable Research Enhanced Global Equity UCITS ETF Acc (FGLR ETF) med ISIN IE00BKSBGV72, är en aktivt förvaltad ETF.

            Denna ETF investerar i aktier från utvecklade marknader över hela världen. Värdepapper väljs ut enligt hållbarhet och grundläggande kriterier.

            Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,25 % p.a. Fidelity Sustainable Research Enhanced Global Equity UCITS ETF Acc är den enda ETF som följer Fidelity Sustainable Research Enhanced Global Equity-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

            Fidelity Sustainable Research Enhanced Global Equity UCITS ETF Acc är en liten ETF med tillgångar på 45 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 27 maj 2020 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

            Investeringsmål

            Fonden strävar efter att uppnå långsiktig kapitaltillväxt från en portfölj som huvudsakligen består av aktier i företag med säte globalt.

            Handla FGLR ETF

            Fidelity Sustainable Research Enhanced Global Equity UCITS ETF Acc (FGLR ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

            Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest, SAVR och Avanza.

            Börsnoteringar

            BörsValutaKortnamn
            gettexEURFGLR
            Borsa ItalianaEURFGLR
            London Stock ExchangeUSDFGLR
            London Stock ExchangeGBPFGLS
            SIX Swiss ExchangeUSDFGLR
            SIX Swiss ExchangeCHFFGLR
            XETRAEURFGLR

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            VärdepapperVikt %
            Microsoft Corp5.0%
            Apple Inc4.7%
            NVIDIA Corp4.5%
            Amazon.com Inc2.6%
            Meta Platforms Inc Class A2.4%
            Alphabet Inc Class A2.0%
            JPMorgan Chase & Co1.9%
            Visa Inc Class A1.6%
            Alphabet Inc Class C1.4%
            Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B1.2%

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