ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Investors appear to rotate from gold to silver ETPs
Highlights
Silver ETPs receive highest weekly inflows since January 2015.
Equity contrarians looking to buy Italian ETFs.
Long crude oil ETPs saw US$45mn outflows as WTI oil declined the most in 10 weeks.
Silver ETPs receive highest weekly inflows since January 2015. Silver’s underperformance relative to gold has been correcting in recent weeks. The gold-to-silver ratio has declined to 78 on 25th May from a 2-year high of 82 reached in April. While gold remains under pressure from a rising interest rate environment in the US, silver has the potential to leverage off its industrial’s traits. With global purchasing managers indices seeing improvement in the start Q2, the outlook for industrial demand for silver is looking good. Silver had been in a supply deficit in since 2013 and the lack of capital expenditure in mines in recent years its likely to see that supply deficit persist. Growing demand from electronics (in particular in cars) and photovoltaics bodes well for the metal. Long silver ETPs saw US$97.3mn of inflows last week. Gold ETPs on the other hand saw outflows. Despite gold seeing gains toward the end of the week after the US-North Korea-South Korea summit experienced further turbulence, gold ETPs saw US$63.5mn outflows during the week as gold prices were predominantly falling.
Equity contrarians looking to buy Italian ETFs. The forming of an all-populist coalition government in Italy spooked the market and the FTSE MIB declined a good 4.5% last week. Prior to the events that caused further turmoil over the weekend, ETF investors appear to have sensed a buying opportunity. US$8.2mn of inflows into long FTSE MIB ETFs were the highest since July 2016.
Sugar ETPs saw largest outflows since July 2015 as investors appear to take profit.Sugar pricesrose 7% last week as the market reassessed the extent of global over-supply. After a bumper cane crop (and strong crush thereafter), the market was conditioned to think that India would flood the market with high levels of exports. But it appears that India is happy to hold a larger inventory this year. At the same time, less favourable weather is likely to reduce supplies from Brazil and relatively strong oil prices are likely to see a higher amount of cane be diverted to ethanol production rather than sugar. Long sugar ETPs saw US$8.5mn of outflows last week as investors appeared to take profit on the recent price increase.
Investors appear to profit-take on industrial metals. Broad industrial metal prices have risen 1.5% after in the past month, after a period of decline. Investors appear to have taken profit on these moves. US$16.6mn of outflows last week were the highest in eight weeks. While the fundamentals on industrial metals remain supportive, near-term headwinds from an appreciating US Dollar could cap price gains.
Long crude oil ETPs saw US$45mn outflows as WTI oil declined the most in 10 weeks.WTI oil prices fell 5% last week as OPEC and Russia signalled they are ready to increase supply. It is not clear by how much they will increase production or to what extent the 14 member group (and 10 non-OPEC countries participating in the voluntary production adjustments) even agree with reducing production curbs. We expect more clarity after the 174th OPEC meeting scheduled on 22nd June.
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Crypto markets faced a volatile week as key macroeconomic events approached, with the upcoming US presidential election and anticipated Fed rate decision fueling uncertainty in risk assets. Bitcoin (BTC) rose 1.7%, ether (ETH) declined 1%, Solana (SOL) fell 8.2%, and the Nasdaq Crypto IndexTM (NCITM) was down 0.5%.
Microsoft to consider bitcoin investment starting December
According to a new SEC filing, Microsoft is considering the possibility of investing in Bitcoin as a hedge strategy against inflation despite opposition from its Board of Directors. This move, by one of the world’s largest companies, would mark a significant step in institutional adoption for Bitcoin.
MicroStrategy discloses plans to buy $42B of BTC
The firm announced bold plans to raise $42 billion over the next three years to acquire more bitcoin. This new wave of capital will be split equally, with $21 billion from equity issuance and $21 billion from debt offerings, in a project called the ”21/21” plan. This move, led by founder Michael Saylor, underscores bitcoin’s potential as a valuable hedge against inflation and highlights its appeal as a strategic investment option.
UBS launches its first tokenized fund on Ethereum
UBS Asset Management has launched its first tokenized fund, the USD Money Market Investment Fund Token (uMINT), a money market fund built on the Ethereum blockchain, available through authorized partners. The launch supports the growing demand for tokenized financial assets and leverages distributed technology to enhance fund issuance and distribution, as well as UBS’s broader strategy to expand its tokenization services.
The fourth quarter got off to a strong start, with bitcoin (BTC) bumping up against its all-time high late in the month and the Nasdaq Crypto Index™ (NCI™) returning 7.2%.
Many crypto assets, however, struggled in October as the US elections and other uncertainties cast a shadow over bullish sentiment. Our CIO, Samir Kerbage, wrote about how the November 5th elections might impact investors and also joined a webinar with the CEO of The Digital Chamber to cover this topic in more depth. You can watch a replay of the webinar here.
As always, we are greatly appreciative of your trust in us and are here to answer any questions you may have.
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Market Review
October is typically a favorable month for crypto assets, particularly bitcoin (BTC). For this reason, the month is often referred to as “Uptober.” This year was no different: the Nasdaq Crypto Index™ (NCI™) posted a 7.2% gain, despite slight declines in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 stock indices. However, unlike September, the vast majority of altcoins did not have a positive month.
In the first ten days of the month, the NCI™ gave back its gains from September. All NCI™ constituents recorded declines, except for Uniswap, which announced plans to develop its own layer two network on Ethereum. From then on, a strong recovery began, particularly for Bitcoin and Solana, which were up double digits by the 29th. This rally coincided with the sharp increase in Trump’s odds in election betting markets, and brought Bitcoin close to its all-time high. In the last two days of the month, crypto assets retreated, following the strong pessimism that overtook traditional markets.
Among NCI™ constituents, the positive highlights were Bitcoin and Solana, with gains of 10.6% and 9.0%, respectively. On the downside, Ripple dropped 18.6% due to the SEC lawsuit, while MATIC fell more than 20%, apparently due to migration to a new token called POL.
Among CF Benchmarks’ sectoral indices, the smallest drop was in the Smart Contract Platforms Index, mitigated by the performance of its main constituent, Solana. A similar effect was seen in the Digital Culture index, which dropped 7.6%, despite its largest constituent, SuperVerse, rising more than 20%. The Decentralized Finance (DeFi) index declined by 8.6%, with only Uniswap showing gains among its constituents. The Vinter Hashdex Risk Parity Momentum Index saw a small drop of 0.6%, heavily influenced by the sharp losses in Ripple and Near. In all five indices, the largest asset posted gains, but most other constituents did not.
In the near future, the US election results could serve as a trigger for a new all-time high in Bitcoin, as well as a recovery for smaller assets that are lagging this year. We remain optimistic about the development of the crypto asset class over the medium and long term.
Top Stories
Stripe acquires Bridge for $1.1B
Stripe acquired the stablecoin platform Bridge for approximately $1.1 billion, becoming Stripe’s largest acquisition and one of the biggest in the crypto sector. Bridge was created to compete with traditional payment networks like SWIFT and credit cards and helps Stripe’s growing interest in building a worldwide stablecoins infrastructure. This move boosts stablecoins credibility and signals an increasing fintech interest in Web3, potentially attracting more institutional investors and expanding blockchain-based financial use cases.
Robinhood launches crypto transfers in Europe
Robinhood Crypto has launched cryptocurrency transfers for customers in Europe, allowing deposits and withdrawals of over 20 cryptocurrencies, including BTC, ETH SOL. This was one of the most requested features by users in the region, and makes crypto transfers now available to all eligible Robinhood Crypto customers in Europe. This move signals the growing adoption of digital assets in Europe, boosting confidence in the asset class growth potential.
Bernstein predicts Bitcoin at $200,000 in 2025
Bernstein published a report predicting that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by factors such as the halving, increased institutional adoption, and interest in inflation-hedging assets. Additionally, Bernstein foresees a growing integration of Bitcoin mining with artificial intelligence (AI), where about 20% of mining capacity could be redirected to AI by 2027. This underscores the growing integration of crypto and AI, driving technological advancements and boosting demand for both.
Valour Digital Securities Limited (”Valour”), en ledande emittent av börshandlade produkter (”ETPs”) som ger förenklad tillgång till digitala tillgångar, har introducerat en ny fysiskt stödd, högavkastande Bitcoin (”BTC”) ETP för tyska investerare i samarbete med Core Foundation, en organisation dedikerad till utvecklingen av Core blockchain-nätverket (”Core Chain”). Detta tillägg till Valours portfölj på Xetra erbjuder ett nytt, fysiskt backat alternativ vid sidan av det avkastningsfokuserade certifikatet som lanserades tidigare i år, för att möta olika investerares behov. ETP ger tyska investerare exponering mot Bitcoin med en initial fast avkastning på 1,40 % (årligt) på Xetra premiumbörsen. ”Denna nya insats-ETP representerar en betydande möjlighet för investerare. 1VBS investerar inte bara världens starkaste kryptovaluta utan genererar också passiva intäkter genom en innovativ insatsmekanism. Denna dubbla fördel förbättrar en investerares investeringsstrategi samtidigt som den förenklar processen och gör det möjligt att tjäna belöningar utan den tekniska komplexiteten med att hantera underliggande tillgångar och insatsprocesser. Det är ett övertygande alternativ för välinformerade investerare som vill växa sina portföljer i en reglerad miljö.”, säger Elaine Buehler, produktchef på Valour. Handel med 1Valour Bitcoin Physical Staking (1VBS) ETP (ISIN: GB00BRBV3124) började den 1 november 2024, med en förvaltningsavgift på 0,9 %.
”Vi är glada över att ge tyska investerare en ny, fysiskt stödd, avkastningsbärande Bitcoin ETP på Xetra, som erbjuder säker och förenklad tillgång till Bitcoins tillväxtpotential med en attraktiv initial fast avkastning på 1,40 %”, säger Olivier Roussy Newton, VD för DeFi Technologies. ”Detta partnerskap med Core Foundation understryker vårt engagemang för att utveckla pålitliga, institutionellt anpassade digitala tillgångslösningar. Genom att upprätthålla full förvaringskontroll inom ett kompatibelt ramverk gör vi det möjligt för investerare att dra nytta av Bitcoin-insats med den säkerhet och förtroende de förväntar sig av reglerade finansiella produkter.”
Core chain: Förbättra säkerhet och avkastning
Core blockchain-nätverket, en Bitcoin-driven lager-ett blockkedja som är kompatibel med Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) smarta kontrakt, stöder 1Valour Bitcoin Physical Staking (1VBS). Genom att utnyttja 50 % av Bitcoin-mining-hashkraften förbättrar Core Chain säkerheten i utbyte mot att låsa upp Bitcoin-verktyg och belöningar, vilket gör den till den mest Bitcoin-anpassade EVM-blockkedjan, med funktioner inklusive BTCfi och Bitcoin-insats.
1Valour Bitcoin Physical Staking (1VBS) förenklar Bitcoin-investeringar, vilket gör det säkert och tillgängligt för investerare som söker Bitcoins tillväxtpotential. Avkastningen krediteras varje produkts Digital Asset-rättigheter och återspeglas i Net Asset Value (NAV) dagligen.
Avkastningsgenerering och frihetsberövande säkerhet
1Valour Bitcoin Physical Staking (1VBS) ETP genererar avkastning genom att delegera Bitcoins till en Core Chain-validator genom icke-förvarsbaserad, infödd Bitcoin-insats. Insatsbelöningar, mottagna som CORE-tokens i en separat plånbok, konverteras till Bitcoins och läggs till ETPens NAV och egen plånbok dagligen. De underliggande tillgångarna i ETP finns alltid kvar i Bitcoins. Core Chain, en säker och skalbar lager-ett-blockkedja som drivs av Bitcoin, stöds av en unik ”Satoshi Plus”-konsensusmekanism som gör det möjligt för Bitcoin-gruvarbetare att delegera Proof of Work (”DPoW”) till Core-validerare och därigenom utveckla potentialen för Bitcoin -stödda decentraliserade applikationer.
Under hela insatsprocessen behåller Valor full frihetsberövande kontroll, vilket säkerställer säkerhet och efterlevnad. Bitcoins satsas säkert genom en ”insatstransaktion”, en infödd Bitcoin-transaktionstyp med en kortvarig låsningsperiod, inklusive insatsdetaljer som Core Validator och belöningsadress. Under lockupen kan de underliggande Bitcoins inte överföras eller skäras ned, och de förblir under Valours förvarskontroll med en reglerad depåman hela tiden.
Om Valour
Valour Inc. och Valor Digital Securities Limited (tillsammans, ”Valour”) utfärdar börshandlade produkter (”ETPs”) som gör det möjligt för privatpersoner och institutionella investerare att få tillgång till digitala tillgångar på ett enkelt och säkert sätt via sina traditionella bankkonton. Valour är en del av kapitalförvaltningsverksamheten inom DeFi Technologies Inc. (CBOE CA: DEFI) (GR: R9B) (OTC: DEFTF).