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Investor Hedging Favours Gold
ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly Investor Hedging Favours Gold
Gold ETPs see three consecutive weeks of inflows.
Third consecutive week of inflows for industrial metals, led by ETFS Copper (COPA).
ETFS Wheat (WEAT) sees fifth consecutive week of inflows.
Profit-taking in oil ETPs for the eighth consecutive week.
Although Greece managed to scrape together its €750mn payment to the IMF, the fact it had to do so by tapping into its own IMF reserves account was a cause for concern. With its cash wearing so thin, the risk of an accident now is very high. Weaker-than-expected German Q1 GDP data, a downgrade of UK GDP forecast from the Bank of England and a string of poor Chinese data point to monetary easing from the world’s major central banks continuing for the foreseeable future. Gold responded decisively, jumping 3.2% on the week, while silver riding its coat-tail gained 6.4%.
Gold ETPs see three consecutive weeks of inflows. The recent rally in gold prices and rising market anxiety about Greece and European growth rates has driven heightened interest in gold. Last week we saw US$11.1mn of inflows into gold ETPs, adding to the US$62.3mn of cumulative inflows from the previous two weeks. World Gold Council data released last week showed only modest decline in gold demand in Q1 2015 relative to same period last year, with investment demand posting gains led by the ETP inflows.
Third consecutive week of inflows for industrial metals, led by ETFS Copper (COPA). COPA received US$4.8mn after the copper price has risen 7.6% in the past month as supply forecasts were revised down. The International Copper Study Group has for the past few years forecast supply surplus, when in reality the market has ended the year in a supply deficit. ICSG tend not to factor in the disruption to output from miner strikes, accidents and port closures. They have forecast a surplus in 2015 once again, but the recent flooding in Chile has already been a setback to global output.
ETFS Wheat (WEAT) sees fifth consecutive week of inflows. After wheat prices hit a five-year low two weeks ago, they bounced 7.7% last week. Investors have been steady building positions in wheat ETPs, bargain hunting as underlying prices remain depressed. Last week WEAT received US$3.7mn. With US farmers expecting to plant less of the grain this year, we expect supply to tighten. The near-perfect weather conditions we saw last year are unlikely to be repeated this year. In fact the Australian Bureau of Meteorology last week declared that we are currently in an El Niño weather event, which could be quite substantial in strength. El Niño weather events typically make countries like Australia and India more warm and dry than usual, potentially hurting their wheat crops.
Profit-taking in oil ETPs for the eighth consecutive week. Both Brent and WTI benchmarks rose 1.6% last week. Unsurprisingly, some ETP investors chose to take profit, seeing US$8.6mn of outflows. With OPEC announcing last week that it increased daily production by 18,000 barrel per day in April and the International Energy Agency claiming that OPEC’s battle for market share is ‘only just beginning’ the prospects for a correction in the 40% price rally since March seem high. Meanwhile, investors also took profit on a US natural gas ETPs after a 10% price rally last week. Natural gas surged following expectations of warmer US weather that would boost demand for the commodity to generate power for air-conditioning.
Key events to watch this week. US, Euro area and UK inflation numbers will be closely viewed to see if deflationary trends are abating. Continued price weakness should keep a central bank easing bias, which has been historically positive for gold.
Video Presentation
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
Important Information
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
- Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
- Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
- What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?
Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has amassed a staggering $43 billion in Bitcoin, positioning itself at the forefront of the corporate “reserve race.” Under the leadership of Bitcoin maximalist Michael Saylor, the company now boasts an $84 billion market cap. But with such an aggressive strategy, how sustainable is its approach—and what risks lie ahead? We break it down in today’s analysis.
Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
A drop below $72,000 could flush longs, while a breakout above $90,000 may squeeze shorts. One key positive indicator is that Bitcoin continues to print higher lows since March 10, which preserves a bullish market structure in our view. Dive into our technical analysis.
What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?
Imagine owning a slice of a skyscraper or a piece of fine art with just a few clicks. Tokenization, the act of converting ownership rights to real-world assets (RWAs) into tradable tokens, has surpassed $10 billion in on-chain value, unlocking global 24/7 access to once-exclusive markets with liquidity, efficiency, and yield. Find out how it works.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
Since President Trump appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chair two months ago, many investigations into crypto businesses have been dropped, as the SEC moves away from regulation by enforcement and works to create a framework for digital assets. As regulations become clearer and news flow turns more positive, crypto prices—which dropped sharply this week—should begin to better reflect the new regulatory landscape in the US.
We believe this regulatory shift could ultimately help trigger the next leg of the current bull run, as investors better understand the significance of regulatory clarity and seek to acquire bitcoin and altcoins at what we believe are currently very favorable levels.
Market Highlights
SEC Dismisses Crypto Enforcement Actions
The SEC dropped its enforcement actions against crypto-related companies Kraken, Consensys, and Cumberland DRW.
This indicates a shift in SEC’s regulatory approach, favoring clearer guidelines over enforcement actions. Such a pivot could foster a more predictable environment, encouraging innovation within the sector.
Banks to Engage in Crypto Activities
The FDIC has rescinded previous guidelines which prevented financial institutions from engaging with crypto activities without prior sign-off.
By removing bureaucratic hurdles, banks may more readily offer crypto-related services, potentially leading to broader adoption and integration of digital assets.
Bitcoin ETFs Inflow Streak Surpassed $1 Billion
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a 10-day inflow streak exceeding $1 billion marking the longest such streak in 2025.
This underscores growing institutional and retail investor confidence in Bitcoin as an asset class that helps increase market stability and possibly paving the way for the approval of other crypto-based financial products.
Market Metrics
All NCITM constituents had negative performance last week, with XRP (-10.8%) and UNI (-10.7%) seeing the steepest declines. ETH also experienced a sharp drop (-9.1%), contributing to NCITM’s underperformance relative to BTC (-2.9%). The NCITM -4.2% decline reflects a broader risk-off sentiment in the crypto market, as investors reassess their positions amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.
NCITM (-4.2%) extended its underperformance last week, deepening year-to-date losses. Traditional indices like the S&P 500 (-1.5%) and Nasdaq 100 (-2.4%) saw smaller declines. The gap between crypto and other risk assets continues to widen, while gold has emerged as the top performer in 2025, gaining nearly 20% amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. This trend highlights a growing risk-off sentiment, with investors shifting toward defensive assets and away from high-volatility investments.
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