One year on from the last rate cut, the Bank of England has kept rates on hold, with the MPC voting 6-2 in favour of the decision (roughly the same as last month). Although policy remains unchanged, GBP should remain supported by what is expected to be a tighter policy path in 20-17/2018. Indeed, Governor Carney indicated that policy may need to be tightened at a faster rate than the market is currently pricing. If Bank of England doesn’t hike rates in 2017, then when?
While a decidedly cautious tone was struck by Governor Carney at the Bank of England press conference, tighter policy is coming: if UK economic growth continues at the rate the BOE has forecast, the market is underpricing the amount of policy tightening that is necessary.
The UK economy remains relatively resilient after the EU Referendum, with the unemployment rate at pre-crisis levels and evidence that both the manufacturing and services sector are growing in a robust manner. The reason for the additional Bank of England stimulus (a rate cut and additional asset purchases) a year ago was necessarily forward looking: ‘the weaker medium-term outlook for activity…[will lead to] an eventual rise in unemployment. The central bank seems to have become less proactive since then, highlighting that the UK is currently ‘in the teeth’ of the squeeze for households and both consumption growth and business investment will improve further in coming months.
The inflation remains elevated in the UK
Meanwhile, inflation remains elevated in the UK and well above the BOE’s target. The longer this continues, the greater the chance of expectations becoming unanchored, especially if energy prices rise again. While inflation hasn’t surprised to the upside in recent months, market implied inflationary expectations remain elevated (well above a year ago), and above other major economies.
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Current BOE Policy remains extremely accommodative
Current BOE Policy remains extremely accommodative. There may be uncertainties around the Brexit negotiations, but emergency interest rate settings do not seem appropriate. Indeed, Governor Carney notes that there are limits to what monetary policy can do relating to the Brexit situation. We expect that negotiations surrounding Brexit will remain in flux and that given there is unlikely to be significant progress made, the worst case scenario has already been digested by the market and GBP. In turn, the BOE is likely to unwind their Brexit induced rate cut from last year in H2 2017.
The key sentence in the BOE’s Monetary Policy Summary report is ‘The combination of high rates of profitability, especially in the export sector, the low cost of capital and limited spare capacity supports investment by UK firms over the forecast period, offsetting the effect of continued uncertainties around Brexit’. Surely if the economic uncertainty surrounding Brexit is offset, then the 2016 rate cut and additional stimulus should be unwound…if not in 2017, then when?
Martin Arnold, Global FX & Commodity Strategist at ETF Securities
Martin Arnold joined ETF Securities as a research analyst in 2009 and was promoted to Global FX & Commodity Strategist in 2014. Martin has a wealth of experience in strategy and economics with his most recent role formulating an FX strategy at an independent research consultancy. Martin has a strong background in macroeconomics and financial analysis – gained both at the Reserve Bank of Australia and in the private commercial banking sector – and experience covering a range of asset classes including equities and bonds. Martin holds a Bachelor of Economics from the University of New South Wales (Australia), a Master of Commerce from the University of Wollongong (Australia) and attained a Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance and Investment from the Securities Institute of Australia.
Amundi S&P Global Financials ESG UCITSETF DR EUR (D) (WEL8 ETF) med ISIN IE000ENYES77, försöker följa S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials-index. S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials-index spårar stora och medelstora företag från finanssektorn. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning).
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,18 % p.a. Amundi S&P Global Financials ESG UCITSETF DR EUR (D) är den billigaste ETF som följer S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Årligen).
Amundi S&P Global Financials ESG UCITSETF DR EUR (D) är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 2 miljoner euro under förvaltning. ETFen lanserades den 20 september 2022 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Investeringsmål
AMUNDI S&P GLOBAL FINANCIALS ESG UCITSETF DR – EUR (D) försöker replikera, så nära som möjligt, resultatet av S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials Index (Netto Total return index). Denna ETF har exponering mot stora och medelstora företag i utvecklade länder. Den innehåller uteslutningskriterier för tobak, kontroversiella vapen, civila och militära handeldvapen, termiskt kol, olja och gas (inkl. Arctic Oil & Gas), oljesand, skiffergas. Den är också utformad för att välja ut och omvikta företag för att tillsammans förbättra hållbarhet och ESG-profiler, uppfylla miljömål och minska koldioxidavtrycket.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.
President Trump announced a highly aggressive tariff package—one with broad macroeconomic implications—and global markets reacted sharply. In this environment of heightened volatility, we urge investors to maintain perspective, just as they should when prices are volatile to the upside (e.g., last year’s post-election rally).
Notably, since the election, bitcoin and the Nasdaq Crypto Index have outperformed gold, the S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100. Even in the wake of the tariffs, only gold has outpaced bitcoin and the NCI—highlighting the relative strength of digital assets amid global market declines.
Market Highlights
Stablecoin legislation advances in US
The House Financial Services Committee voted to advance a monumental bill to regulate stablecoins, the STABLE Act, following the Senate Banking Committee approval of similar legislation earlier this year.
President Trump has said he wants stablecoin legislation approved by Congress before its August recess, reinforcing the new administration’s focus on establishing clear crypto regulation.
Tokenized fund sets dividend benchmark
BlackRock’s BUIDL paid an estimated $4.17 million in monthly dividends during March.
This highlights the potential of crypto to create attractive investment instruments, such as tokenized funds, which stood out this month paying massive dividends and setting a new benchmark for the class.
SEC chair orders review of crypto guidance
Acting SEC Chair Mark T. Uyeda ordered a review of past staff guidance on crypto, including risk warnings and interpretations of the Howey test.
This move, like others before, signals a broader shift toward a more open regulatory approach, potentially strengthening the presence of bitcoin and other digital assets in the US in the near future.
Market Metrics
The NCITM constituents had another negative week, with only XRP (-7.0%) and BTC (-3.8%) avoiding double-digit losses. The overall NCITM decline of -5.2% was cushioned by BTC’s relative resilience, as it performed better as a store-of-value asset. However, the drop still reflects a broader risk-off sentiment across all markets, driven by Trump’s tariff policies and growing macroeconomic uncertainties that are prompting investors to reassess their positions.
This week, the NCITM fell -5.3%, narrowing the gap with traditional indices such as the Nasdaq 100 (-9.8%) and S&P 500 (-9.1%) which experienced sharper losses following Trump’s tariff announcements. BTC (-3.8%) performed similarly to gold (-3.3%), though gold remains the top-performing asset class year-to-date. The week reinforced the risk-off sentiment, with investors broadly retreating from risk assets. Still, it also highlighted crypto’s growing relevance, as the most volatile asset class managed to outperform traditional markets in a stressed environment.
JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned Active Strategy investerar i företag från tillväxtmarknader. ETF strävar efter att generera en högre avkastning än MSCI Emerging MarketsSRI EU PAB Overlay ESG Custom-index. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning). Dessutom beaktas EUs direktiv om klimatskydd.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,30 % p.a. Utdelningarna i ETF:n ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
JPMorgan Global Emerging Markets Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned Active UCITSETF USD (acc) är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 2 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 5 mars 2025 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Investeringsmål
Delfondens mål är att uppnå en långsiktig avkastning som överstiger MSCI Emerging MarketsSRI EU PAB Overlay ESG Custom Index* (”riktmärket”) genom att aktivt investera i huvudsak i en portfölj av tillväxtmarknadsföretag, samtidigt som målen i Parisavtalet är i linje.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.