ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Greece The Dangerous Game of Brinkmanship Continues
Highlights
Energy rallies while agriculture pares recent gains. China A-shares rally on positive indications from MSCI. Commodity currencies diverge.
Talks between Greece and its creditors collapsed over the weekend adding a further blow to the country’s precarious financial situation after the IMF pulled out discussions last week. Euro-zone finance ministers will meet again on Thursday to try to break the impasse, but the willingness from either side to see a resolution appears to be wearing thin. Elsewhere, the Federal Open Market Committee will host a press conference and present its summary of economic projections after its rate decision, where no change is expected.
Commodities
Energy rallies while agriculture pares recent gains. Natural gas gained 7.6% last week, reversing the previous two week’s losses. Higher power demand driven by air-conditioning needs tend to drive up natural gas demand in the summer period. Above average temperature forecasts for the south east of the US were the catalyst for the recent gains. There were no surprises in the weekly natural gas in storage data with a net change of 111 Bcf, close to 113 Bcf expected. Both Brent and WTI continued to defy the lack of material supply tightening news, with both benchmarks gaining close to 5%. Crude oil prices appear to be reacting to higher demand forecasts, but we believe that the higher prices themselves are likely to choke off demand. Sugar declined a further 3.5% last week, to a 6 year low, driven mainly by a depreciating Brazilian Real exchange rate. The global glut in sugar continues to weigh on sentiment. The USDA surprisingly increased wheat supply forecasts for this year. Wheat had previously been rallying following excess rain in in the key growing areas in the US.
Equities
China A-shares rally on positive indications from MSCI. MSCI declared it is a matter of “when” and not “if” they will include domestically traded A-Shares to its Emerging Market benchmark. MSCI announced that is working with the China Securities Regulatory Commission on overcoming the final roadblocks to inclusion. Furthermore they said they will not necessarily wait to their annual index review to announce inclusion. If reform maintains its current pace, we are likely to see MSCI’s concerns on capital mobility, quota allocation and beneficial ownership quickly resolved. That would pave the way for domestically traded shares to enter the emerging market index that currently has approximately US$1.5tn benchmarked against it. European bourses meanwhile traded lower as concerns about Greece’s precarious finances linger.
Currencies
Commodity currencies diverge. Citing weak commodity prices, falling import prices and subdued wage inflation, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the official cash rate last week driving the NZD lower. It also expressed concern that the currency is still overvalued despite depreciating since April, and that further rate cuts are possible. The Reserve Bank of Australia also remains dovish. Meanwhile the recent bounce in oil price has supported NOK and CAD, driving the commodity currencies apart. The lack of progress in Greece’s negotiations with its creditors continued to weigh on the Euro. With the IMF pulling out of discussions, the risk of a dramatic end to the standoff between the Greek government and its creditors has now increased. As long as the Fed continues to indicate it is on track to raise rates in September, we are likely to see the US dollar remain a key haven for investors.
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Last week was monumental for Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem, ushering in key regulatory and legislative developments in the US. These changes not only underscore a shifting attitude toward digital assets in the US but also lay the groundwork for greater clarity and legitimacy for crypto globally in the years to come. Following are the five reasons we think last week was such a defining moment for crypto assets and why we think the current environment is setting this asset class up for a remarkable 2025.
A paradigm shift at the SEC
One of the most significant signals of change came from US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Acting Chair Mark Uyeda, who announced the establishment of a Crypto Task Force led by Commissioner Hester Peirce, affectionately known as ”Crypto Mom” for her engagement in the digital asset space while at the SEC. The task force, along with the favorable views on digital assets from incoming chair Paul Atkins, reflects an important step toward ending the contentious practice of ”regulation by enforcement,” which has long stymied innovation for crypto entrepreneurs and limited opportunity for US investors.
The SEC’s subsequent decision to rescind Staff Accounting Bulletin (SAB) 121, which imposed restrictive accounting guidelines on banks wishing to custody crypto, further underscores the regulatory shift. Its repeal not only provides operational relief but also signals a more pragmatic approach to crypto oversight.
These regulatory moves reflect a broader recognition by US authorities of the need for a framework that fosters innovation while ensuring investor protection. They set the stage for a future where digital assets are more seamlessly integrated into the financial system.
New congressional leadership
Another pivotal development was the appointment of Senator Cynthia Lummis as chair of the newly created Subcommittee on Digital Assets. Lummis, a long-time advocate for Bitcoin and blockchain technology, is uniquely positioned to champion legislation that promotes innovation while addressing key concerns around market integrity and consumer protection.
Her leadership comes at a critical time, as Congress considers landmark legislation such as the Stablecoin Act and the Bitcoin Act. The Stablecoin Act, which could see approval this year, aims to establish clear guidelines for stablecoin issuance and use. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Act proposes an audacious goal: for the US government to accumulate 5% of bitcoin’s total supply. There are obstacles to this proposal, some of which I noted in August last year, but if enacted, this legislation could significantly impact Bitcoin’s global adoption and price trajectory.
A game-changing executive order
The White House also contributed to the week’s momentum with a new executive order aimed at shaping the future of digital assets in the US. A key aspect of this order is its rejection of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in favor of fostering stablecoin development. President Trump has been vocal about his preference for implementing a ”digital dollar” on top of open blockchain networks, a move that aligns with crypto’s decentralized ethos.
This executive order also signals the end of ”Operation Chokepoint,” an informal campaign that had effectively debanked parts of the crypto industry. By reaffirming the importance of open networks and stablecoins, the administration is providing a clear direction for the role digital assets could play in the US financial system.
Perhaps the most intriguing development is the proposal to establish a government stockpile of digital assets. While the term “stockpile” has been carefully chosen over “reserve” to avoid direct comparisons with traditional currency reserves, the implications are nonetheless profound. The working group tasked with studying this proposal has expanded its scope beyond bitcoin to include crypto assets more broadly.
While it’s too early to predict how or whether the stockpile will be established, the study represents a thoughtful approach to a high-stakes decision. It could mark the beginning of a global trend, with other nations potentially racing to stockpile crypto assets as part of their sovereign holdings, which we’ve already seen this week with the Czech central bank.
Steps toward a comprehensive regulatory framework
The week’s developments also highlight the ongoing evolution of regulatory characterization. US regulators are moving toward a more nuanced understanding of digital assets, which is essential for crafting effective policies. This trend was echoed in the revocation of SAB 121 and the growing momentum behind legislation like the Stablecoin Act. Additionally, the broader regulatory framework for market structure in digital assets, which could happen this year or next, will likely address issues ranging from trading practices to asset classification. These steps indicate a deliberate effort to integrate crypto into the financial system with precision and clarity.
The start of a geopolitical race to embrace crypto
These developments, particularly the possibility of a US crypto stockpile, also raises the stakes on the global stage. Sovereign states accumulating crypto assets could lead to a new form of economic competition, where digital assets play a central role in national strategy.
The US government’s interest in studying this proposal reflects an understanding of crypto’s growing significance in global finance. It also aligns with the nation’s broader goals of maintaining technological and economic leadership.
What’s next?
The developments of the past week are part of a broader trend of increasing institutional and governmental recognition of crypto’s potential. However, several key milestones remain on the horizon:
• Stablecoin Act Approval: This legislation, which could happen before the fourth quarter this year, will provide much-needed clarity for stablecoin issuers and users.
• Market Structure Framework: Expected by 2026, this framework will define the rules of engagement for trading and investing in digital assets.
• Bitcoin Act Progress: If the US government begins accumulating bitcoin, it could have profound implications for the asset’s supply dynamics and global adoption.
• Stockpile Study Results: The findings of the crypto stockpile working group could shape the long-term digital asset strategy in the US.
As these milestones approach, bitcoin and other crypto assets are likely to experience heightened volatility, but also greater legitimacy. Investors, policymakers, and innovators will continue to pay attention to these developments, as they could define the future of the global economy. While challenges remain, the direction is clear: crypto is moving from the fringes of finance to center stage. As these changes unfold, the crypto ecosystem is poised to evolve into a more robust and integral part of the global economy, presenting investors with attractive opportunities to get broad exposure to this emerging asset class.
Bitwise meddelade idag att Bitwise har slutfört omprofileringen av alla ETPer i sin europeiska produktsvit efter förra årets förvärv av ETC Group.
Bitwise meddelade idag att företaget har slutfört omprofileringen av alla ETP:er i sin europeiska produktsvit efter förra årets förvärv av ETC Group. Flytten kommer när Bitwise ser ut att utöka sin position som marknadsledare på kryptomarknader 2025, ett år då ett antal strukturella uppåtgående trender sannolikt kommer att stärka kryptomarknaderna.
Bland de omdöpta produkterna finns Bitwise Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1), Bitwise Ethereum StakingETP (ET32), Bitwise MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20), och företagets flaggskeppsprodukt: – Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) . BTCE, som lanserades 2020, är den mest omsatta bitcoin-ETPen i Europa. För en översikt över alla produkter med deras omdöpta namn, se tabellen nedan.
Bitwise kommer att fortsätta att bredda kryptoåtkomst för investerare, tillhandahålla innovativa produkter i klassen, snabba insikter om den senaste marknadsutvecklingen och kämpa för transparens och ansvarsskyldighet under ett milstolpeår för kryptoindustrin.
Hunter Horsley, VD och medgrundare av Bitwise: ”Vi förväntar oss att 2025 kommer att bli ett avgörande år för krypto, med Bitcoin, Ethereum och Solana som var och en når rekordnivåer, och en mer kryptovänlig miljö i Washington ger välkommen klarhet till utrymmet. Bitwise ser fram emot att använda detta ögonblick för att stärka vår position som marknadsledare både i USA och Europa.”
Bitwise såg en betydande tillväxt under 2024, ett år då Bitcoin sköt i höjden till 103 992 dollar någonsin efter rekordlanseringen av spotbitcoin-ETFer i USA. Företaget passerade över 12 miljarder dollar i kundtillgångar och använde sitt momentum för att lansera nya institutionell-grade crypto stakingETP, nämligen den nyligen lanserade Bitwise Solana StakingETP, och Bitwise Aptos StakingETP, dessutom att lämna in ett formulär S-1 för en XRP spot-ETF i USA. Företagets Bitwise Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1 | DE000A4AER62), en institutionellt fokuserad och kostnadseffektiv Bitcoin ETP med en Total Expense Ratio (TER) på 0,20 %, är också upplever ökad popularitet bland investerare.
En annan höjdpunkt under 2024 för Bitwise var lanseringen av Bitwise Onchain Solutions efter företagets förvärv av Attestant Limited, en institutionell Ethereum-staking provider med 3,7 miljarder dollar i insatta tillgångar vid tidpunkten för förvärvet.
Krypto kommer att skjuta i höjden 2025
År 2025 kommer antagandet av bitcoin och andra kryptotillgångar av företagsskattmästare att vara en annan viktig drivkraft för att stödja tillgångsklassen, sa Bitwise Head of Research Europe Dr Andre Dragosch i en studie denna månad. För tillfället har företag endast 4% av det totala tillgängliga Bitcoin-utbudet, ett antal som redan fördubblades förra året. Med ett totalt fritt kassaflöde mellan S&P 500-företag på 1,5 biljoner dollar – mer än dubbelt så mycket kapital som någonsin investerats i Bitcoin – erbjuder detta en oöverträffad tillväxtmöjlighet.
Bitwise kommer att fortsätta att positionera sig som en tankeledare med studier som ovan och flera andra, vilket ger en rik ström av forskning och marknadsanalyser för investerare.
Följande tabell visar Bitwises omdöpta European Crypto ETP-svit
I denna text tittar vi närmare på olika börshandlade produkter som ger exponering mot PYTH. Precis som för många andra kryptovalutor och tokens finns det flera olika börshandlade produkter som spårar PYTH. Vi har identifierar fem stycken sådana produkter.
De olika produkterna skiljer sig en del åt, en del av emittenter av ETPer arbetar med så kallad staking för vissa kryptovalutor, vilket gör att förvaltningsavgiften kan pressas ned. Det är emellertid inte så att alla dessa börshandlade produkter är identiska varför det är viktigt att läsa på.
Börshandlade produkter som ger exponering mot PYTH
Precis som för många andra kryptovalutor och tokens finns det flera olika börshandlade produkter som spårar PYTH. Det finns faktiskt en börshandlad produkt som är noterade på svenska börser vilket gör att den som vill handla med dessa slipper växlingsavgifterna, något som kan vara skönt om det gäller upprepade transaktioner i olika riktningar.
För ytterligare information om respektive ETP klicka på kortnamnet i tabellen nedan.