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Greece Teetering on the Brink of Default

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Greece Teetering on the Brink of Default

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Greece Teetering on the Brink of Default

Highlights

•    Weather driving sharp movements in agricultural commodities.
•    Equity markets to price in default?
•    Haven demand and economic recovery fuelling US dollar higher.

ETFS

A sharp re-pricing of risk is likely to follow Greece’s decision to hold the question of accepting its creditor terms to a referendum. Capital controls have been implemented to stem outflows from Greece’s banks while the ECB has frozen the Emergency Liquidity Assistance to Friday’s levels. Greece still owes the IMF €1.6bn tomorrow. Failure to pay could descend the country into chaos, marking the first sovereign default in the euro area since its creation. We believe that demand for defensive assets such as gold and the US dollar are likely to be key beneficiaries of the unfolding crisis.

Commodities

Weather driving sharp movements in agricultural commodities. Rain in the US delayed the harvesting of wheat and potential the sowing of soy, acting as a catalyst for price gains of 9.0% and 2.3% respectively. Meanwhile strong winds in Iowa and Illinois knocked over young corn stalks driving the price of corn up 5.2%. An acreage report from the USDA out tomorrow is likely to revise the estimates for planting of soy from what was expected to be a record high when the prospective planting survey was conducted in March. An intensifying El Niño weather pattern will likely see further disruption to crops this year. We believe that drier conditions in Australia, India and West Africa will drive wheat, sugar and cocoa prices higher. Better soy growing conditions in the US and South America that will result from an intensified El Niño will mitigate any lower planting intentions for soy, acting as a negative weight on price.

Equities

Equity markets to price in default? The continuing Greek debt saga led to choppy trading in Europe last week, with most bourses ending the week higher on optimism that some sort of deal would have been brokered over the weekend to avoid Greek defaulting on its IMF loan tomorrow. The referendum and capital controls now throw doubt as to whether a solution can be quickly found. European equity markets are faltering as a repricing of risk takes place. Meanwhile, the MSCI China A-Shares index has declined by closed to 20% in the past two weeks. While the Chinese domestic equity market has rallied more than 100% in the past year (even after the correction), the authorities are keen to the see that sentiment does not unravel. Over the weekend the People’s Bank of China cut interest rates by 25bps and lowered the reserve requirement ratio for small banks by 50bps.

Currencies

Haven demand and economic recovery fuelling US dollar higher. Greek financial woes drove the US dollar 2% higher against the Euro. The ongoing saga is likely to continue to favor the US dollar, as near-term solutions are likely to be met with more arduous negotiations. With the threat of an accident always around the corner, it is clear why haven currencies are sought after. While the Swiss franc has traditionally been treated as a haven currency, the Swiss National Bank has tried to lean against the wind with verbal intervention. After the SNB’s head declared its currency significantly overvalued, the currency declined 2.2% in the week against the US dollar. US non-farm payrolls due on Thursday and manufacturing ISM on Wednesday are two indicators that will be market will be looking at closely to assess whether the Fed is still on track to raise rates in September. Once the US starts to raise rates, we believe that increases will be gradual and highly data dependent. That could slow the pace of the current US dollar rally.

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

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Fastställd utdelning i XACT Sverige 2025

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Utdelningsbeloppet i rubricerad börshandlad fond, legalt namn XACT Sverige (UCITS ETF), har fastställts till totalt SEK 25,10 per fondandel. Fastställd utdelning i XACT Sverige 2025.

Utdelningsbeloppet i rubricerad börshandlad fond, legalt namn XACT Sverige (UCITS ETF), har fastställts till totalt SEK 25,10 per fondandel. Fastställd utdelning i XACT Sverige 2025.

De som är registrerade fondandelsägare i fonden på avstämningsdagen erhåller utdelning.

Schema för utdelning i fonden är följande:

9 juni Sista dag att handla fondandelar inklusive rätt till utdelning

10 juni Ex-dag; fondandelarna handlas utan rätt till utdelning

11 juni Avstämningsdag

16 juni Utbetalningsdag

Notera att utdelning i XACT Sverige 2025 sker en gång per år, till skillnad från Xact Norden Högutdelande som delar ut fyra gånger per år.

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Fastställd utdelning i XACT Norden Högutdelande 2025

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Utdelningsbeloppet i rubricerad börshandlad fond, legalt namn XACT Nordic High Dividend Low Volatility (UCITS ETF), har fastställts till totalt SEK 7,48 per fondandel. Fastställd utdelning i XACT Norden Högutdelande 2025.

Utdelningsbeloppet i rubricerad börshandlad fond, legalt namn XACT Nordic High Dividend Low Volatility (UCITS ETF), har fastställts till totalt SEK 7,48 per fondandel. Fastställd utdelning i XACT Norden Högutdelande 2025.

SEK 1,87 delas ut i mars, maj, september och november.

De som är registrerade fondandelsägare i fonden på avstämningsdagen erhåller utdelning.

Schema för utdelning i fonden är följande:

Utdelning 1 – SEK 1,87

10 mars Sista dag att handla fondandelar inklusive rätt till utdelning i XACT Norden Högutdelande 2025 mars

11 mars Ex-dag; fondandelarna handlas utan rätt till utdelning

12 mars Avstämningsdag

17 mars Utbetalningsdag

Utdelning 2 – SEK 1,87

12 maj Sista dag att handla fondandelar inklusive rätt till utdelning i XACT Norden Högutdelande

13 maj Ex-dag; fondandelarna handlas utan rätt till utdelning

14 maj Avstämningsdag

19 maj Utbetalningsdag

Utdelning 3 – SEK 1,87

8 sep Sista dag att handla fondandelar inklusive rätt till utdelning

9 sep Ex-dag; fondandelarna handlas utan rätt till utdelning

10 sep Avstämningsdag

15 sep Utbetalningsdag

Utdelning 4 – SEK 1,87

10 nov Sista dag att handla fondandelar inklusive rätt till utdelning

11 nov Ex-dag; fondandelarna handlas utan rätt till utdelning

12 nov Avstämningsdag

17 nov Utbetalningsdag

Notera att utdelning i XACT Norden Högutdelande 2025 sker fyra gånger per år, till skillnad från Xact Sverige som delar ut en gång per år.

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Crypto’s big week in Washington: Preparing for a crypto-friendly US

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Last week was monumental for Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem, ushering in key regulatory and legislative developments in the US. These changes not only underscore a shifting attitude toward digital assets in the US but also lay the groundwork for greater clarity and legitimacy for crypto globally in the years to come. Following are the five reasons we think last week was such a defining moment for crypto assets and why we think the current environment is setting this asset class up for a remarkable 2025.

Last week was monumental for Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem, ushering in key regulatory and legislative developments in the US. These changes not only underscore a shifting attitude toward digital assets in the US but also lay the groundwork for greater clarity and legitimacy for crypto globally in the years to come. Following are the five reasons we think last week was such a defining moment for crypto assets and why we think the current environment is setting this asset class up for a remarkable 2025.

  1. A paradigm shift at the SEC
  2. One of the most significant signals of change came from US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Acting Chair Mark Uyeda, who announced the establishment of a Crypto Task Force led by Commissioner Hester Peirce, affectionately known as ”Crypto Mom” for her engagement in the digital asset space while at the SEC. The task force, along with the favorable views on digital assets from incoming chair Paul Atkins, reflects an important step toward ending the contentious practice of ”regulation by enforcement,” which has long stymied innovation for crypto entrepreneurs and limited opportunity for US investors.
  3. The SEC’s subsequent decision to rescind Staff Accounting Bulletin (SAB) 121, which imposed restrictive accounting guidelines on banks wishing to custody crypto, further underscores the regulatory shift. Its repeal not only provides operational relief but also signals a more pragmatic approach to crypto oversight.
  4. These regulatory moves reflect a broader recognition by US authorities of the need for a framework that fosters innovation while ensuring investor protection. They set the stage for a future where digital assets are more seamlessly integrated into the financial system.
  5. New congressional leadership

Another pivotal development was the appointment of Senator Cynthia Lummis as chair of the newly created Subcommittee on Digital Assets. Lummis, a long-time advocate for Bitcoin and blockchain technology, is uniquely positioned to champion legislation that promotes innovation while addressing key concerns around market integrity and consumer protection.

Her leadership comes at a critical time, as Congress considers landmark legislation such as the Stablecoin Act and the Bitcoin Act. The Stablecoin Act, which could see approval this year, aims to establish clear guidelines for stablecoin issuance and use. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Act proposes an audacious goal: for the US government to accumulate 5% of bitcoin’s total supply. There are obstacles to this proposal, some of which I noted in August last year, but if enacted, this legislation could significantly impact Bitcoin’s global adoption and price trajectory.

  1. A game-changing executive order

The White House also contributed to the week’s momentum with a new executive order aimed at shaping the future of digital assets in the US. A key aspect of this order is its rejection of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in favor of fostering stablecoin development. President Trump has been vocal about his preference for implementing a ”digital dollar” on top of open blockchain networks, a move that aligns with crypto’s decentralized ethos.

This executive order also signals the end of ”Operation Chokepoint,” an informal campaign that had effectively debanked parts of the crypto industry. By reaffirming the importance of open networks and stablecoins, the administration is providing a clear direction for the role digital assets could play in the US financial system.

Perhaps the most intriguing development is the proposal to establish a government stockpile of digital assets. While the term “stockpile” has been carefully chosen over “reserve” to avoid direct comparisons with traditional currency reserves, the implications are nonetheless profound. The working group tasked with studying this proposal has expanded its scope beyond bitcoin to include crypto assets more broadly.

While it’s too early to predict how or whether the stockpile will be established, the study represents a thoughtful approach to a high-stakes decision. It could mark the beginning of a global trend, with other nations potentially racing to stockpile crypto assets as part of their sovereign holdings, which we’ve already seen this week with the Czech central bank.

  1. Steps toward a comprehensive regulatory framework

The week’s developments also highlight the ongoing evolution of regulatory characterization. US regulators are moving toward a more nuanced understanding of digital assets, which is essential for crafting effective policies. This trend was echoed in the revocation of SAB 121 and the growing momentum behind legislation like the Stablecoin Act. Additionally, the broader regulatory framework for market structure in digital assets, which could happen this year or next, will likely address issues ranging from trading practices to asset classification. These steps indicate a deliberate effort to integrate crypto into the financial system with precision and clarity.

  1. The start of a geopolitical race to embrace crypto

These developments, particularly the possibility of a US crypto stockpile, also raises the stakes on the global stage. Sovereign states accumulating crypto assets could lead to a new form of economic competition, where digital assets play a central role in national strategy.

The US government’s interest in studying this proposal reflects an understanding of crypto’s growing significance in global finance. It also aligns with the nation’s broader goals of maintaining technological and economic leadership.

What’s next?

The developments of the past week are part of a broader trend of increasing institutional and governmental recognition of crypto’s potential. However, several key milestones remain on the horizon:

Stablecoin Act Approval: This legislation, which could happen before the fourth quarter this year, will provide much-needed clarity for stablecoin issuers and users.

• Market Structure Framework: Expected by 2026, this framework will define the rules of engagement for trading and investing in digital assets.

• Bitcoin Act Progress: If the US government begins accumulating bitcoin, it could have profound implications for the asset’s supply dynamics and global adoption.

• Stockpile Study Results: The findings of the crypto stockpile working group could shape the long-term digital asset strategy in the US.

As these milestones approach, bitcoin and other crypto assets are likely to experience heightened volatility, but also greater legitimacy. Investors, policymakers, and innovators will continue to pay attention to these developments, as they could define the future of the global economy. While challenges remain, the direction is clear: crypto is moving from the fringes of finance to center stage. As these changes unfold, the crypto ecosystem is poised to evolve into a more robust and integral part of the global economy, presenting investors with attractive opportunities to get broad exposure to this emerging asset class.


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