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Gold Sets a High Bar for Bitcoin

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Gold Sets a High Bar for Bitcoin, Gold bullion rallied 2.25% in July despite heavy gold bullion ETP redemptions, while gold stocks moved slightly higher.

Gold Sets a High Bar for Bitcoin, a Gold Commentary July by Joe Foster, Portfolio Manager/Strategist

Key Takeaway

  • Gold bullion rallied 2.25% in July despite heavy gold bullion ETP redemptions, while gold stocks moved slightly higher.
  • We see $1,200 as a resilient floor for gold, with prices yet to trend through $1,300. The most obvious catalyst is likely to be U.S. economic weakness, which might persuade the Fed to turn cautious.
  • Investors are eager to understand digital currencies like bitcoin. We evaluate this ”fad” in the context of time-tested gold investing.
    The most significant development that has come out of the digital currency craze is validation of distributed ledger technology.

Gold Bullion Rallies in July

The monthly low for gold came on July 10 at $1,204 per ounce. Gold then rallied to finish July at $1,269.44 per ounce, a gain of $27.89 (2.25%; YTD gold bullion has gained 10.17%). This was the third time this year that gold has successfully tested the $1,200 level. Although the U.S. dollar had a precipitous fall in July, it was not the primary driver for gold. Thus far in 2017 gold has been responding more to changes in real interest rates. Gold has an inverse correlation to real interest rates, which moved higher early in the month (coinciding with gold lows) before trending lower. The change in direction for gold and interest rates was driven by somewhat dovish Congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, which the market interpreted as an indication that another Fed rate increase this year is less likely.

July Gains Impressive Given ETP Redemptions

July saw heavy redemptions in the gold bullion exchange traded products. Physical demand from Asia is typically low during the summer and there were not any significant moves in futures positioning. Normally this would contribute to price weakness, so July’s modest gains for gold are somewhat impressive. It is possible that July’s gains were driven by buying in the over-the-counter market (OTC), however there is no published data for OTC transactions. We do expect that more transparency for the OTC market will be available soon. The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and the London Precious Metals Clearing Limited (LPMCL) recently began releasing aggregate data on gold inventories in London vaults with a three month lag. Vaulting statistics are a first step and are likely to be followed by trade reporting at a later date.

Gold stocks moved slightly higher with the gold price. For July, the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) gained 3.6% while the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) advanced 0.20%. Gold stocks advanced despite heavy redemptions in gold stock ETFs, a situation that parallels the curious July relationship between the rising gold price and the gold bullion ETP redemptions. Markets don’t always do what is expected of them.

Recent Momentum Suggests that $1,300 is Likely to be Tested

While $1,200 has proven to be a resilient floor for gold, the price has yet to trend through the $1,300 per ounce level. Twice this year gold turned down as it approached $1,300. The recent upward price trend suggests $1,300 may soon be tested for a third time. Gold prices typically trend higher in the fall as seasonal physical demand improves. In terms of identifying catalysts that might enable gold to break through $1,300, the most obvious candidate is economic weakness that might persuade the Fed to take a more cautious stance. The Fed is expected to announce plans in September to reduce its massive crisis-era balance sheet and there could also be significant risks surrounding these plans.

Gold is Physical, Bitcoin is Digital

Recently, we have received many questions about digital currencies and in particular, bitcoin (defined as the world’s first decentralized digital currency). The queries range from our general opinion to concerns that bitcoin might displace gold demand. While we have no digital currency experts on our gold team, we follow the development of these new currencies with interest. It is clear that those who promote bitcoin are using gold’s image to help validate their product. Press articles are often accompanied by a picture of stacks of shiny gold colored bitcoins. Bitcoins are created by “miners”. This is aimed at creating the illusion of a solid currency. In reality, digital currencies are strings of 0s and 1s stored in a computer in some unknown location and cannot be touched or seen.

There are, however, several important similarities between gold and bitcoin. Both are outside of the mainstream financial establishment. Both are not issued or controlled by governments, and both are traded around the globe across borders. Supply of both gold and bitcoin is limited, so they are sound forms of currency. For most transactions to be used in an economy, they must be converted into paper currency.

Gold versus Bitcoin

However, there are a range of significant differences:

  • Gold has been established as a store of wealth throughout human history. Gold’s market capitalization is roughly $8 trillion, of which $3 trillion is in coin and bar form. Approximately $50 billion worth of gold trades each day. Bitcoin is microscopic in comparison with a market capitalization of approximately $45 billion and $1.5 billion in daily trading volume.
  • Gold can be stored anywhere. If stored at home, it can be used for barter the next time a hacker or solar flare takes down the grid. Digital currencies are worthless without electricity. Taking delivery will always be impossible with digital currency.
  • Bitcoin mining is a difficult concept to fathom. Bitcoin miners use computer programs to solve complex math problems and receive in exchange new bitcoins. What does this activity have to do with creating a store of wealth?
  • Most bitcoin markets are lightly regulated and are located outside of the U.S. A major potential drawback to digital currency is their use for money laundering, illegal trading, computer ransom attacks, tax avoidance, and to subvert exchange controls. Expect governments to intervene heavily if any of these activities become significant. Over the past year the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) forced the three biggest bitcoin exchanges to adhere to anti-money laundering rules, implement trading fees, and then forced them to halt bitcoin withdrawals.
  • Distributed ledgers are promoted as unhackable. However, police were recently able to find the digital keys to an online criminal’s accounts and seize approximately $8 million in digital currencies.
  • Digital currency has yet to stand the test of time. We do not know if a digital currency that is secure today will be secure under new technology. Distributed ledger passwords could be relatively easily broken if quantum computing becomes a reality.

Distributed Ledger Technology is Game Changing

The most significant development that has come out of the digital currency craze is validation of distributed ledger technology. This technology has the potential to revolutionize many aspects of the financial system, trade, and essentially anything where records are maintained. A secure system that eliminates middle men has obvious advantages. Imagine trading stocks without brokers, transfer agents, and custodians ― a scenario where fees are likely to disappear.

Source: Capco.com.
Equally as significant, digital currencies have caused many to question what exactly a currency should be and whether there is a better alternative to fiat currency. The monetary system is broken. Central banks seem powerless to prevent the economy from going through busts that destroy wealth and create hardship. Currency volatility under the fiat system has been extreme. Politics, corruption, and mismanagement are a constant concern.

Technology Likely to Improve Gold Ownership Efficiency

Combining distributed ledger technology with an established sound and solid currency may provide the best alternative. To this end, later in 2017 the Royal Mint in the U.K. is set to launch Royal Mint Gold (RMG). RMG will be a digital record of ownership for gold stored at its vault, while CME Group will operate the product’s distributed ledger platform. It will carry the option to convert to physical gold. It is not clear whether this product will enable consumer purchases with some type of RMG credit card. Regardless, technology is accelerating towards the day when gold can be used both as a store of wealth and an efficient medium of exchange.

Digital Currencies Are Not Likely to Replicate Gold’s Unique Role

Bitcoin and other digital currencies are a fad that has attracted the attention of programmers, speculators, and early adaptors. Given the fundamental characteristics of gold and digital currencies, we do not believe digital currencies will ever replicate or replace gold’s unique role as a form of portfolio insurance and as a hedge against tail risk. It is my opinion that governments will not allow digital currencies to reach the critical mass needed to challenge the utility of fiat currencies. At best, digital currencies may eventually occupy some middle ground as a niche product. At worst, they become a failed experiment that ends in tears. For now, the only thing we can forecast with confidence in the digital currency space is more volatility.

by Joe Foster, Portfolio Manager and Strategist

With more than 30 years of gold industry experience, Foster began his gold career as a boots on the ground geologist, evaluating mining exploration and development projects. Foster is Portfolio Manager and Strategist for the Gold and Precious Metals strategy.

Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time.

Important Information

1 U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) indicates the general international value of the U.S. dollar. The DXY does this by averaging the exchange rates between the U.S. dollar and six major world currencies: Euro, Japanese yen, Pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish kroner, and Swiss franc.

2 The correlation coefficient is a measure that determines the degree to which two variables’ movements are associated and will vary from -1.0 to 1.0. -1.0 indicates perfect negative correlation, and 1.0 indicates perfect positive correlation.

3 NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) is a modified market capitalization-weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold.

4 MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) is a rules-based, modified market capitalization-weighted, float-adjusted index comprised of a global universe of publicly traded small- and medium-capitalization companies that generate at least 50% of their revenues from gold and/or silver mining, hold real property that has the potential to produce at least 50% of the company’s revenue from gold or silver mining when developed, or primarily invest in gold or silver.

5 Black swan is an event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and is extremely difficult to predict.

6 VIX is the ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, which shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility. It is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options.

Important Disclosures

This commentary originates from VanEck Investments Limited (“VanEck”) and does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security.

VanEck’s opinions stated in this commentary may deviate from opinions presented by other VanEck departments or companies. Information and opinions in this commentary are based on VanEck’s analysis. Any forecasts and projections contained in the commentary appear from the named sources. All opinions in this commentary are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated date of this commentary and are subject to change without notice in subsequent versions of the commentary. Any projections, market outlooks or estimates in this material are forward-looking statements and are based upon certain assumptions that are solely the opinion of VanEck. Any projections, outlooks or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur.

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Fem spanska fonder som har ökat med +12% under 2025

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År 2025 visar sig bli ett tufft år för finansmarknaderna. Med det första kvartalet fortfarande att avslutat upplever de stora internationella aktieindexen kraftiga nedgångar, där indexfonder baserade på S&P 500 och Nasdaq drabbas särskilt hårt. Det finns dock en kategori som står sig starkt: Ibex 35 indexfonder, som har blivit en av årets mest räddningsvärda tillgångar. Det finns fem spanska fonder som har ökat med +12% under 2025.

År 2025 visar sig bli ett tufft år för finansmarknaderna. Med det första kvartalet fortfarande att avslutat upplever de stora internationella aktieindexen kraftiga nedgångar, där indexfonder baserade på S&P 500 och Nasdaq-100 drabbas särskilt hårt. Det finns dock en kategori som står sig starkt: Ibex 35 indexfonder, som har blivit en av årets mest räddningsvärda tillgångar. Det finns fem spanska fonder som har ökat med +12% under 2025.

Mer specifikt har fonder som investerar i spanska aktier (både indexfonder och aktivt förvaltade) ackumulerat en genomsnittlig avkastning på 14,29 % hittills under 2025. Denna siffra gör kategorin till den mest lönsamma bland aktiefonder, och den näst mest lönsamma av alla investeringsfondkategorier, efter endast guld- och ädelmetallfonder, som har skjutit i höjden med en omvärdering på mer än 40 %.

Inom den spanska kategorin upplever Ibex 35 indexfonder en stark utveckling, med avkastning överstigande 12 % under 2025. Nedan granskar vi årets fem mest lönsamma Ibex indexfonder, rangordnade från lägst till högst avkastning:

BBVA Bolsa Índice FI

Denna Ibex 35 indexfond, som förvaltas av BBVA Asset Management, har stigit med 12,03 % hittills i år. Under de senaste 5 åren har den erbjudit en genomsnittlig avkastning på 16,12 %.

Den har tillgångar på 116,5 miljoner euro och följer Ibex 35 Net Return-indexet, vilket inkluderar utdelningar. Dess nuvarande kostnader är 1,21 %.

10 största portföljpositioner

VärdepapperVikt%
Inditex (Industria de Diseño Textil S.A.)13,57%
Banco Santander S.A.13,16%
Iberdrola S.A.12,39%
BBVA (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A.)10,32%
CaixaBank S.A.5,36%
Amadeus IT Group S.A.4,57%
Ferrovial SE4,42%
Futuro sobre IBEX 353,75%
Aena SME S.A.3,60%
Telefónica S.A.3,40%

Santander Indice España FI Openbank

Santander Asset Managements indexfond Ibex 35 har en avkastning på 12,08 % år 2025. Under fem år har den ackumulerat en avkastning på 16,20 %.

Den förvaltar tillgångar till ett värde av 961,7 miljoner euro, vilket gör den till en av de största fonderna i detta urval. Förvaltningsavgiften är 0,70 % och de löpande kostnaderna är 1,11 %.

10 största portföljpositioner

VärdepapperVikt%
Inditex (Industria de Diseño Textil S.A.)14,18%
Iberdrola S.A.12,70%
Banco Santander S.A.10,82%
Futuro sobre Ibex 35 (venc. 02/2025)9,90%
BBVA (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A.)9,16%
Bono España 0,65%5,57%
CaixaBank S.A.4,84%
Amadeus IT Group S.A.4,60%
Ferrovial SE4,40%
Aena SME S.A.3,60%

ING Direct Fondo Naranja Ibex 35 FI

Fondo Naranja Ibex 35 de ING, som förvaltas av Amundi Iberia, har hittills under 2025 haft en avkastning på 12,13 %. Under femårsperioden har den ackumulerat en avkastning på 16,31 %.

Denna fond har tillgångar på 268,4 miljoner euro och replikerar Ibex 35 Net Return. Förvaltningsavgiften är 0,99 % och de löpande kostnaderna är 1,1 %.

10 största portföljpositioner

VärdepapperVikt%
Inditex (Industria de Diseño Textil S.A.)13,90%
Banco Santander S.A.13,48%
Iberdrola S.A.12,69%
BBVA (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A.)10,57%
CaixaBank S.A.5,49%
Amadeus IT Group S.A.4,68%
Ferrovial SE4,53%
Aena SME S.A.3,68%
Telefónica S.A.3,49%
Cellnex Telecom S.A.3,48%

Caixabank Bolsa Índice España Estándar FI

Caixabank AM-fonden har hittills under 2025 redovisat en ökning på 12,23 %. Dess genomsnittliga avkastning under de senaste fem åren har varit 16,72 %.

Dess förvaltade tillgångar uppgår till 335,5 miljoner euro, och det motsvarar Ibex 35 Net Return. Din provision är i detta fall 1 % och dina nuvarande utgifter är 1,03 %.

10 största portföljpositioner

VärdepapperVikt%
Iberdrola S.A.13,61%
Banco Santander S.A.13,28%
Inditex (Industria de Diseño Textil S.A.)12,13%
BBVA (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A.)10,22%
CaixaBank S.A.5,82%
Amadeus IT Group S.A.4,49%
Ferrovial SE4,25%
Aena SME S.A.3,68%
Telefónica S.A.3,49%
Cellnex Telecom S.A.3,28%

Bindex España Índice FI

Och den mest lönsamma fonden bland de som är indexerade mot Ibex 35 år 2025 (även om vi talar om tiondelar och hundradelar jämfört med resten) är Bindex Spain Index, från BBVA Asset Management. Denna fond har hittills i år haft en avkastning på 12,35 % och en 5-årsavkastning på 17,35 %.

Med tillgångar på 146,4 miljoner euro har denna fond etablerat sig som det billigaste alternativet av de fem (förvaltningsavgift på 0,11 % och löpande kostnader på 0,14 %). Den replikerar också Ibex 35 Total Return.

10 största portföljpositioner

VärdepapperVikt%
Inditex (Industria de Diseño Textil S.A.)13,62%
Banco Santander S.A.13,20%
Iberdrola S.A.12,43%
BBVA (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A.)10,35%
CaixaBank S.A.5,38%
Amadeus IT Group S.A.4,59%
Ferrovial SE4,44%
Aena SME S.A.3,61%
Telefónica S.A.3,42%
Cellnex Telecom S.A.3,41%

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ASRP ETF ett spel på medtech företag världen över

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BNP Paribas Easy ECPI Global ESG Med Tech UCITS ETF EUR (ASRP ETF) med ISIN LU2365457410, försöker följa ECPI Global ESG Medical Tech-index. ECPI Global ESG Medical Tech-index spårar företag från utvecklade marknader över hela världen som är aktiva inom medicinteknikbranschen. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning). De utvalda värdepapperen viktas lika i indexet.

BNP Paribas Easy ECPI Global ESG Med Tech UCITS ETF EUR (ASRP ETF) med ISIN LU2365457410, försöker följa ECPI Global ESG Medical Tech-index. ECPI Global ESG Medical Tech-index spårar företag från utvecklade marknader över hela världen som är aktiva inom medicinteknikbranschen. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning). De utvalda värdepapperen viktas lika i indexet.

Den börshandlade fondens (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,30 % p.a. BNP Paribas Easy ECPI Global ESG Med Tech UCITS ETF EUR är den billigaste och största ETF som följer ECPI Global ESG Medical Tech-index. ETF:n replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

BNP Paribas Easy ECPI Global ESG Med Tech UCITS ETF EUR är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 12 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 10 december 2021 och har sin hemvist i Luxemburg.

Handla ASRP ETF

BNP Paribas Easy ECPI Global ESG Med Tech UCITS ETF EUR (ASRP ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Borsa Italiana.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURASRP
Borsa ItalianaEUREGEMT
Euronext ParisEURMEDTE
XETRAEURASRP

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Europafokuserade ETPer ser större andel av flödena under första kvartalet

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HANetf har släppt sin rapport om börshandlade europeiska ETPer för första kvartalet 2025, som avslöjar banbrytande insikter i den snabba utvecklingen av den europeiska ETF-marknaden.

HANetf har släppt sin rapport om börshandlade europeiska ETPer för första kvartalet 2025, som avslöjar banbrytande insikter i den snabba utvecklingen av den europeiska ETF-marknaden.

Tillgångar i europeiska ETPer nådde 2,4 biljoner dollar under första kvartalet, varav ETFer stod för 2,28 biljoner dollar. Kärnaktions-ETFer ledde flödena (45,70 miljarder dollar) medan räntebärande ETFer ökade med 15,19 miljarder dollar.

Viktiga data

  • Europeiska ETPer överstiger 2,4 biljoner dollar i förvaltat kapital under första kvartalet 2025
  • Flöden omdirigerades till Europafokuserade ETPer jämfört med USA-fokuserade mitt i tullkrisen
  • Kärnaktions-ETFer överstiger milstolpen på 1 biljon dollar i förvaltat kapital med 45,70 miljarder dollar i nettoflöden under första kvartalet
  • Aktiva ETFer i förvaltat kapital ökade med 11,65 % under första kvartalet och optionsbaserade ETFer i förvaltat kapital med 54,55 %.
  • Antalet europeiska ETP-varumärken fortsätter att öka och uppgår nu till totalt 131.
  • Europa godkänner semitransparenta ETFer, vilket potentiellt uppmuntrar fler aktiva förvaltare i USA att gå in på den europeiska ETF-marknaden.
  • Försvars-ETFer såg flöden på 4,16 miljarder dollar under första kvartalet, vilket motsvarar 4,5 % av de totala ETF-flödena i Europa och en 5-faldig ökning jämfört med föregående kvartal.

Läs hela rapporten för att upptäcka kvartalsdata, ETF-marknadens utveckling, tillväxten inom nya områden som optionsbaserade ETFer och mer.

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