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Gold Reacts Positively on Market Events in China

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Gold Reacts Positively on Market Events in China Van Eck Global’s gold specialist Joe Foster shares his monthly perspective on the gold market.

Gold Reacts Positively on Market Events in China Van Eck Global’s gold specialist Joe Foster shares his monthly perspective on the gold market.

» Open Gold Market Commentary

Gold Reacts Positively on Market Events in China

By: Joe Foster, Gold Strategist

Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time.

Market Review

Gold reacted favorably to the panic that afflicted global financial markets in August. Events unfolding in China brought weakness and volatility to markets around the world. Gold started trending higher on August 11 when the Chinese government made adjustments to the way the yuan is currently managed, enabling the currency to experience its largest two-day decline in more than a decade. Some analysts saw this as a desperate attempt by China to help stimulate its ailing economy through currency devaluation. With confidence waning, on August 18 China’s stock markets began a plunge to new lows for the year, with the Shanghai CSI 100 Index2 declining 24% in six trading days. This reverberated through global markets as commodities, emerging market currencies, and many developed market stock indices declined to new lows.

While the gold market encountered considerable volatility, gold bullion outperformed most asset classes in August with a $38.98 (3.6%) gain, compared to declines of 1.5% for copper, 1.3% for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)3, and 6.0% for the S&P 500 Index.4 Gold stocks felt the pressure of the general stock market selloff, however, they were still able to achieve gains for the month, as shown by the 2.06% advance in the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the 4.66% gain in the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index.5

Several indicators suggested tight supplies of physical gold in August. After experiencing heavy redemptions in July, gold bullion exchange-traded products became buyers, Shanghai Gold Exchange premiums trended higher, and gold forward lease rates turned negative. Offsetting these bullish indicators were reports of hedging by gold producers in Australia. With the Australian dollar gold price up 9.8% this year, some producers are seeing an opportunity to use limited hedging (selling gold forward) to ensure cash flows to high cost operations or to service debt.

Market Outlook

In August, gold performed as a safe haven investment, evidenced by its outperformance against most asset classes in the midst of widespread panic. Investors were afraid that further economic weakness in China might spread to engulf the global economy. Since 2013 gold has experienced several short-covering rallies sparked by geopolitical or financial stress. The last took place in January, when Greek debt problems reemerged and the Swiss broke its currency’s peg to the euro. These rallies had no legs because, in our opinion, the risks that drove them posed no real or lasting threat to the global economy, particularly the U.S. economy or financial system. Now financial risk is again driving gold and we ask, is this another temporary short-covering rally or the beginning of a sustainable trend? Once the short covering has run its course, is there enough investment demand to drive gold?

While the weak Chinese economy certainly bears watching, we believe international markets are overreacting. China has been working with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others to enable the yuan to achieve international currency reserve status. The IMF is expected to make a decision, which may come later in 2016, on whether to include the yuan in its currency basket. The recent disclosure of China’s gold reserves and moves to eventually enable the yuan to float freely are part of this process. It looks as though the Chinese government is learning the hard way that changing currency policy in the midst of a stock market rout is not the best timing.

The meteoric rise of the Chinese stock market this year was driven mainly by a change in margin rules that enabled retail investors to speculate. With the market crash, the Chinese government is again learning the hard way what happens when inexperienced investors are given access to loans used to speculate on the market.

While these events are important to China, their fundamental impact on the global economy and financial system dissipates as one moves further from Asia. The Asian crisis of 1997 – 1998 was much worse, eventually triggering a Russian debt default and the implosion of hedge fund management firm, Long Term Capital Management. Yet the U.S. economy survived unscathed and gold’s overall trend was down from 1996 to 1999. Similarly, we don’t believe current events in China can serve as the source of longer-term support for gold as a safe-haven investment in the West.

Rather than focus on China, we see far greater risk elsewhere. The markets are quite nervous, which is not a good backdrop at a time when the Federal Reserve (Fed) is poised to make a historic rate decision. With policy rates near zero, the Fed’s primary tool (rate cuts) to kick start the economy is useless, in our view. This probably accounts for much of the nervousness, as investors must decide whether a shock in Asia can generate a market tsunami that reaches U.S. shores with virtually no policy protection.

Now the rest of the world must wonder whether the Fed will set off a ripple effect with a rate increase that turns into a tsunami on distant shores. The U.S. economy is relatively healthy and could probably withstand a series of rate increases. However, the Japanese economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter.6

China’s struggles are widely known. Brazil is in recession. European growth is slow and consumer prices advanced just 0.2% (annualized) in August.7 The price of WTI crude oil fell below $40 per barrel in August and copper is nearing $2.00 per pound. The flow of easy money brought on by quantitative easing8 and the carry trade into emerging markets reversed course when the Fed began to taper a couple of years ago. The world outside of the U.S. is now on the verge of deflation. Will rising rates, a strong U.S. dollar, and economic opportunities in the U.S. suck the remaining economic life (growth capital) out of the global economy? Can the U.S. remain an island of prosperity?

An important difference between now and the period of the 1997 Asian crisis are the imbalances in the global financial system caused by radical monetary and fiscal policies. Imbalances in interest rates, sovereign debt, asset prices, and central bank holdings are currently at unprecedented levels. Raising rates in a weak global economy with macro imbalances has risks. Postponing or eventually reversing course would damage the Fed’s credibility and would risk a loss of confidence. As we move towards 2016, these are some of the issues that could be supportive of the gold market. The more probable source of systemic risk lies in Washington, D.C., not Beijing.

Important Information For Foreign Investors

This document does not constitute an offering or invitation to invest or acquire financial instruments. The use of this material is for general information purposes.

Please note that Van Eck Securities Corporation offers actively managed and passively managed investment products that invest in the asset class(es) included in this material. Gold investments can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. Gold equities may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry, and are subject to interest rate risk and market risk. Investments in foreign securities involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, including the takeover of property without adequate compensation or imposition of prohibitive taxation.

Please note that Joe Foster is the Portfolio Manager of an actively managed gold strategy.
Any indices listed are unmanaged indices and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in the Fund. An index’s performance is not illustrative of the Fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.

NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) is a modified market capitalization-weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold. 2CSI 100 consists of the largest 100 stocks in CSI 300. CSI 100 aims to comprehensively reflect the price fluctuation and performance of the large and influential companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen securities market. 3U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) indicates the general international value of the U.S. dollar. The DXY does this by averaging the exchange rates between the U.S. dollar and six major world currencies: Euro, Japanese yen, Pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish kroner, and Swiss franc. 4S&P 500® Index (S&P 500) consists of 500 widely held common stocks covering industrial, utility, financial, and transportation sectors. 5Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) is a rules-based, modified market capitalization-weighted, float-adjusted index comprised of a global universe of publicly traded small- and medium-capitalization companies that generate at least 50% of their revenues from gold and/or silver mining, hold real property that has the potential to produce at least 50% of the company’s revenue from gold or silver mining when developed, or primarily invest in gold or silver. 6Cabinet Office Data Release, August 18, 2015. 7Eurostat data, August 2015. 8Quantitative easing (QE) is an unconventional monetary policy used by a central bank to stimulate an economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective.

Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time. Not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Historical performance is not indicative of future results; current data may differ from data quoted. Current market conditions may not continue. Non-Van Eck Global proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Van Eck Global. ©2015 Van Eck Global.

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JAAA ETF an aktiv satsning på säkerställda obligationer

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Janus Henderson Tabula USD AAA CLO UCITS ETF USD Acc (JAAA ETF) med ISIN LU2994520851 är en aktivt förvaltad börshandlad fond. Denna ETF ger tillgång till USD CLO:er (collateralised loan obligations) med AAA-rating.

Janus Henderson Tabula USD AAA CLO UCITS ETF USD Acc (JAAA ETF) med ISIN LU2994520851 är en aktivt förvaltad börshandlad fond. Denna ETF ger tillgång till USD CLO:er (collateralised loan obligations) med AAA-rating.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total expense ratio) uppgår till 0,35 % per år. Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Den börshandlade fonden lanserades den 26 mars 2025 och har sitt säte i Luxemburg.

En högkvalitativ aktiv USD CLO ETF

En börshandlad fond med collateralised loan obligations som erbjuder ett övertygande alternativ till företag med investment grade-betyg. AAA CLOer syftar till att erbjuda högre avkastning och större kreditspread* för en tillgång av bättre kvalitet med liten känslighet för räntevolatilitet.

*Skillnaden i avkastning mellan värdepapper med liknande löptid men olika kreditkvalitet, ofta använd för att beskriva skillnaden i avkastning mellan företagsobligationer och statsobligationer. Vidgade spreadar indikerar generellt en försämrad kreditvärdighet hos företagslåntagare, medan en minskning indikerar en förbättring.

Investeringsprocess

Fonden kommer att investera minst 80 % av sitt substansvärde i godtagbara CLO:er (Contract Loans) med valfri löptid som har kreditbetyget AAA (eller motsvarande av ett nationellt erkänt kreditvärderingsinstitut) vid köptillfället, med fokus på USD CLO:er. Om värdepapper i portföljen nedgraderas till under ett kreditbetyg på AAA (eller motsvarande), kommer investeringsförvaltaren att sträva efter att sälja de relevanta värdepapperen så snart som rimligen är möjligt, förutsatt att förvaltaren bedömer att det är i investerarnas bästa intresse.

Portföljförvaltningsstrategier och synpunkter utvecklas med input från diskussioner inom Janus Hendersons CLO-portföljförvaltningsteam och den bredare räntebärande gruppen. Analytiker tilldelas att undersöka specifika möjligheter (inträde, utträde eller annat) och fokusera på de vägledande principerna för att bygga en djup förståelse för säkerheter (typ, jurisdiktion, historisk utveckling), motparter (förvaltare, serviceföretag, hedgeleverantörer), kontroll (juridisk, innehavarens rättigheter, kontroll i fallissemang), kassaflöde (förväntat, stressat, allokering). Som en del av denna process beaktas specifikt EU:s värdepapperiseringsregler. Denna interna forskning kompletteras med data från kreditvärderingsinstitut, investeringsbanker, oberoende analys- och värdepapperiseringsdataleverantörer. Alla rekommendationer är föremål för en minsta granskning med fyra ögon innan de verkställs.

Investeringsmål

Fonden strävar efter att ge avkastning från en kombination av inkomst och kapitaltillväxt på lång sikt genom att investera i en aktivt förvaltad portfölj av AAA-rankade collateralised loan obligations (CLOs). Fonden förvaltas aktivt med hänvisning till J.P. Morgan Collateralized Loan Obligation Index AAA (CLOIE AAA). Delfondens portfölj kan avvika avsevärt från jämförelseindexet.

Handla JAAA ETF

Janus Henderson Tabula USD AAA CLO UCITS ETF USD Acc (JAAA ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad kryptovaluta som handlas på London Stock Exchange.

London Stock Exchange är en marknads som få svenska banker och nätmäklare erbjuder access till, men DEGIRO gör det.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
London Stock ExchangeUSDJAAA

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Can crypto outperform amidst the current market turmoil?

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Financial markets have been roiled by President Trump’s tariff policies, leading to sharp volatility across asset classes. US equities have taken the brunt of it, with the S&P 500 down as much as 20% from its January highs. Bond markets are also unstable, reflecting shifting expectations around 2025 interest rates.

Financial markets have been roiled by President Trump’s tariff policies, leading to sharp volatility across asset classes. US equities have taken the brunt of it, with the S&P 500 down as much as 20% from its January highs. Bond markets are also unstable, reflecting shifting expectations around 2025 interest rates.

This wave of macroeconomic uncertainty has made it harder to detect underlying investment trends—especially in crypto. Despite its independence from direct government influence, digital assets haven’t been immune to the turbulence. But while volatility has hit traditional markets hard, crypto has once again shown resilience, underpinned by improving fundamentals and a strengthening regulatory backdrop.

What we’ve learned since November

In the wake of President Trump’s election in November, digital assets were hitting all-time highs. But instead of urging investors to chase returns, we warned against getting swept away by the “FOMO” mindset that often happens with investors in this asset class. Our message was simple: stick to your target allocation and avoid overexposure after sharp price increases. This approach is designed to help investors benefit from crypto’s long-term asymmetric potential without succumbing to emotional swings.

Even before the election the Nasdaq Crypto Index™ (NCI™) had already risen nearly 50% for the year (as of October 31, 2024). Trump’s win added fuel to the fire, boosting optimism that US crypto regulation could finally turn a corner. By year-end, the NCI™ had more than doubled, closing with a 105% gain.

That bullish momentum continued into early 2025, driven by post-halving optimism, improving adoption metrics, and the tailwinds of Trump’s return. However, the tariff shock has since erased much of crypto’s post-election gains, reigniting questions about the asset class’s staying power in a chaotic macro environment. While further corrections are possible, we believe this phase represents another one of those important long-term entry points—just as we’ve seen before.

Why fundamentals still matter

It’s important to keep in mind that crypto’s value and price trajectory isn’t driven solely by macro noise. Several key forces are still working in its favor:

• Bitcoin’s 2024 halving has constrained supply, historically a key catalyst for price appreciation.

• Easing US monetary policy has provided a tailwind to risk assets across the board.

• Institutional adoption continues to grow, with more asset managers, banks, and platforms embracing digital assets in portfolios.

But perhaps the most underappreciated catalyst right now is regulatory clarity in the US. The stance toward the industry has shifted significantly. After years of mixed messages and an enforcement-first approach to regulation, US policymakers are now working toward a more coherent and constructive framework for digital assets. For example:

• There’s real momentum in Congress to pass bipartisan legislation around custody, stablecoins, and crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs)—all of which could serve as gateways for broader institutional participation.

• Regulators are seeking input from the industry, recognizing the need for practical and innovation-friendly rules.

• This policy shift isn’t just eliminating noise—it’s a structural tailwind that could accelerate adoption, investment flows, and long-term utility for digital assets.

Even amid the recent pullback, the NCI™ remains up 7.0% since Trump’s election—outperforming most risk assets and second only to gold, which is up 8.7%. In contrast, the broader “Trump rally has fizzled in traditional markets: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 are both down more than 10% over the same period, weighed down by tariff fears and growth uncertainty.

That divergence highlights a key point: while crypto remains exposed to global macro risks, its relative strength continues to stand out. And as the regulatory and adoption picture improves, the case for long-term crypto allocations is only growing stronger.

Looking ahead: stay disciplined, think long term

With tariffs reshaping global trade and pushing the world toward a more fragmented economic order, crypto’s borderless, decentralized, and politically neutral nature becomes increasingly relevant. It offers a hedge not only against inflation and currency debasement but also against geopolitical dislocation and systemic risk.

The excitement of late 2024 wasn’t a one-off, and neither is the current wave of fear. Crypto’s long-term role in portfolios remains intact. The temptation to react emotionally—whether by chasing peaks or fleeing during corrections—is strong. But discipline, not emotion, is what wins over time.

With regulatory clarity gaining ground and adoption continuing to advance, we believe digital assets are on solid footing—ready not only to weather the current volatility but to emerge stronger as new regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, and use cases unfold in 2025.


This material expresses Hashdex AG and its subsidiaries and affiliates (“Hashdex”)’s opinion for informational purposes only and does not consider the investment objectives, financial situation or individual needs of one or a particular group of investors. We recommend consulting specialized professionals for investment decisions. Investors are advised to carefully read the prospectus or regulations before investing their funds. The information and conclusions contained in this material may be changed at any time, without prior notice. Nothing contained herein constitutes an offer, solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment management product or service. This information is not directed at or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Hashdex to any registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdiction. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of Hashdex. By receiving or reviewing this material, you agree that this material is confidential intellectual property of Hashdex and that you will not directly or indirectly copy, modify, recast, publish or redistribute this material and the information therein, in whole or in part, or otherwise make any commercial use of this material without Hashdex’s prior written consent.

Investment in any investment vehicle and cryptoassets is highly speculative and is not intended as a complete investment program. It is designed only for sophisticated persons who can bear the economic risk of the loss of their entire investment and who have limited need for liquidity in their investment. There can be no assurance that the investment vehicles will achieve its investment objective or return any capital. No guarantee or representation is made that Hashdex’s investment strategy, including, without limitation, its business and investment objectives, diversification strategies or risk monitoring goals, will be successful, and investment results may vary substantially over time. Nothing herein is intended to imply that the Hashdex s investment methodology or that investing any of the protocols or tokens listed in the Information may be considered “conservative,” “safe,” “risk free,” or “risk averse.”

Certain information contained herein (including financial information) has been obtained from published and non-published sources. Such information has not been independently verified by Hashdex, and Hashdex does not assume responsibility for the accuracy of such information. Hashdex does not provide tax, accounting or legal advice. Certain information contained herein constitutes forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of terms such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate,” “intend,” “continue” “believe” (or the negatives thereof) or other variations thereof. Due to various risks and uncertainties, including those discussed above, actual events or results, the ultimate business or activities of Hashdex and its investment vehicles or the actual performance of Hashdex, its investment vehicles, or digital tokens may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. As a result, investors should not rely on such forward- looking statements in making their investment decisions. None of the information contained herein has been filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or any other governmental or self-regulatory authority. No governmental authority has opined on the merits of Hashdex’s investment vehicles or the adequacy of the information contained herein.

This document qualifies as advertisement within the meaning of article 68 of the Swiss Financial Services Act and/or article 95 of the Swiss Financial Services Ordinance and is not a prospectus, basic information sheet (BIB) or a key information document (KID). Any prospectus (in connection with an offer to the public or admission to trading) and/or any BIB or KID (for a product which was meant to be offered to retail clients), in each case if applicable and/or available, of financial instruments described in herein, from the date of its publication (which may be before, on or after the date of this document) and subject to applicable securities laws, is available from Hashdex AG.

Nasdaq®, Nasdaq Crypto Index™, NCI™, Nasdaq Crypto Index Europe™ and NCIE™ are registered trademarks of Nasdaq, Inc. (which with its affiliates is referred to as the “Corporations”) and are licensed for use by Hashdex Asset Management Ltd. The Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETF and Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index Europe ETP (the “Products”) have not been passed on by the Corporations as to their legality or suitability. The Products are not issued, endorsed, sold, or promoted by the Corporations.THE CORPORATIONS MAKE NO WARRANTIES AND BEAR NO LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE PRODUCTS.<

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Fastställd utdelning i MONTDIV april 2025

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Idag fastställdes utdelningen i MONTDIV april 2025. Montrose Global Monthly Dividend MSCI World UCITS ETF (MONTDIV ETF) fastställdes till 0,39465 kronor per andel. Utdelningen i MONTDIV april 2025 beräknas betalas ut den 12 maj 2025.

Idag fastställdes utdelningen i MONTDIV april 2025. Montrose Global Monthly Dividend MSCI World UCITS ETF (MONTDIV ETF) fastställdes till 0,39465 kronor per andel. Utdelningen i MONTDIV april 2025 beräknas betalas ut den 12 maj 2025.

Handla MONTDIV ETF

Montrose Global Monthly Dividend MSCI World UCITS ETF (MONTDIV ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på Nasdaq Stockholm.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  NordnetSAVRDEGIRO och Avanza.

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