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Gold outlook 2017 further upside likely

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8 år sedan

den

31 januari, 2017

Redaktionen

Gold Outlook While the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will increase rates this year, inflation will remain stubbornly high, maintaining a low real rate environment.

Commodity Research Gold outlook 2017 further upside likely

Highlights

While the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will increase rates this year, inflation will remain stubbornly high, maintaining a low real rate environment. Gold could rise to $1300/oz (8%) in the first half of the year, aided by a weaker US Dollar (USD). However, USD strengthening in the second half of the year and subdued enthusiasm for the metal in the futures market could drive a sell-off, with gold ending the year at US$1230/oz.
While the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will increase rates this year, inflation will remain stubbornly high, maintaining a low real rate environment. Gold prices could rise 8% in the first half of the year, aided by a weaker US Dollar (USD). However, USD strengthening in the second half of the year and subdued enthusiasm for the metal in the futures market could drive a sell-off, with gold ending the year at US$1230/oz, just 2.5% higher than today.
In a bullish scenario for gold, the Fed will be slow to act and inflation will be markedly above market expectations, while the USD weakens. Gold would end the year at US$1380/oz (15%).
In a bearish scenario for gold, the Fed will move more aggressively, seeing the USD appreciate and burst the bond market bubble. Gold would end the year at US$1095/oz (-9%).

2017 gold price forecast

Gold has had a strong start to the year with the metal having risen 3.6% so far. We expect gold to end the year at US$1230/oz, up from US$1185/oz (2.5%). However, gold could peak at a higher level, at around US$1300/oz mid-year (+8%). Our projections on gold are based on the model we presented in “Policy mistakes provide upside potential for gold”. We also present a more bullish and bearish scenario in addition to our base case.

(Click to enlarge)

Inflation to surprise on the upside

US inflation is rising rapidly. Higher energy prices today compared with a year ago will likely see inflation rise substantially above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. Aside from the volatile energy component, core prices are likely to rise as the US labour market shows signs of tightness. The unemployment rate at 4.7% is close to the ‘natural rate’, indicating that any further improvement will be highly inflationary. We believe that headline inflation will reach 2.9% in the first half of the year as a result of higher energy prices compared to a year ago, but even as the base effect fades, inflation will remain elevated at 2.7% in the second half. Inflation will rise despite the Fed delivering on all three rate hikes implied in its ‘dot plots’. Inflation will be substantially higher than the Fed’s projection of 1.9% and the consensus view of 2.5%.

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Dollar appreciation to follow depreciation

As discussed in “Near-term downside for US Dollar”, we expect the USD to depreciate in the near-term after the currency has risen too far, too fast. The risk of the Fed’s actions not living up to its rhetoric is likely to place downward pressure on the currency. USD could fall as much as 2% from today’s levels in the first half of the year. As the Fed comes to terms with having to be more active with monetary policy in mid-2017, we feel that the USD could stage a rebound. The USD is likely to end the year 3% higher than today.

Nominal bond yields rise

Nominal bond yields are expected to rise as the Fed raises policy interest rates. We expect the Fed to deliver all three of the rate hikes indicated in its ‘dot plot’. Although policy rates will increase by 0.75%, we believe that nominal US 10-year bond yields will increase by 0.5% by year-end (from 2.5% to 3.0%) as we typically see the yield curve flatten in rate rising environments.

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With inflation remaining elevated, despite the increase in nominal yields, real yields will be low and could even decline from just under 0.5% currently. Given gold’s historic negative relationship with real rates, a rising nominal rate environment is still consistent with rising gold prices.

(Click to enlarge)

Positioning less sensitive to shocks

Market sentiment toward gold has become subdued. Speculative positioning in gold futures has fallen drastically from last year. In July 2016 speculative positioning in gold futures reached an all-time high of 347,445 net long contracts as the shock result of Brexit led market participants toward the haven asset. But other shocks failed to muster as much enthusiasm for the metal. The surprise win for President Trump or the rejection of constitutional reform in Italy for example had little lasting support for the metal in terms of price or positioning. Speculative positioning fell below 100,000 contracts by the end of the year. It appears that the market has become desensitised by shock events. We think there could be a small uptick in positioning due to the French Dutch and German elections this year, but not to the levels we saw last year. There is also the risk that market uncertainty around Trump’s policies drives more investment in gold futures. We expect positioning to rise to 120,000 (which is markedly lower than the average of 220,000 last year).

(Click to enlarge)

Bull case

In a scenario where the Fed only increases rates twice this year while inflation rises to 3.2%, the USD could lose further ground, depreciating by 1%. More marked curve flattening could see nominal rates only rise to 2.7%. If markets become more responsive to shocks, speculative positions could move higher to 200,000 (close to the average positioning for last year). Under this scenario gold could rise to US$1380/oz by year end.

Bear case

In a scenario where the Fed tries to get ahead of the curve and reduce the risk higher inflation becoming entrenched into expectations, the central bank could raise rates four times this year. Most of the impact on inflation will only be felt in 2018, with inflation at the end of 2017 still around 2.4%. However, the USD may appreciate 5% while bond yields rise to 3.3%, a scenario consistent with the end of the bond market bubble. With markets more focused on a tightening monetary environment rather than political stress points, speculative positioning in gold could fall to 40,000 (significantly below the long term average of 88,000 net long contracts). Our model indicates that gold would fall to US$1095/oz in such a scenario by year end.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

The analyses in the above tables are purely for information purposes. They do not reflect the performance of any ETF Securities’ products . The futures and roll returns are not necessarily investable.

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FLXA ETF investerar enligt katolska principer

Publicerad

6 timmar sedan

den

22 januari, 2025

Redaktionen

Franklin MSCI World Catholic Principles UCITS ETF USD Capitalisation (FLXA ETF), ISIN IE000AZOUN82, försöker spåra MSCI World Select Catholic Principles ESG Universal och Low Carbon-index. MSCI World Select Catholic Principles ESG Universal och Low Carbon Index spårar stora och medelstora värdepapper från utvecklade länder över hela världen. De utvalda företagen screenas enligt deras koldioxidexponering, deras ESG-profil (miljö, social och styrning) och katolska principer. Som ett resultat är företag som är involverade i vapen, hasardspel, vuxenunderhållning, abort, preventivmedel, stamcellsforskning och djurförsök uteslutna.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,27 % p.a. Franklin MSCI World Catholic Principles UCITS ETF USD Capitalization är den enda ETF som följer MSCI World Select Catholic Principles ESG Universal och Low Carbon-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Franklin MSCI World Catholic Principles UCITS ETF USD Capitalization är en liten ETF med tillgångar på 34 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 24 april 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Handla FLXA ETF

Franklin MSCI World Catholic Principles UCITS ETF USD Capitalisation (FLXA ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest, SAVR och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

Börs	Valuta	Kortnamn
XETRA	EUR	FLXA
Borsa Italiana	USD	FAITH
London Stock Exchange	USD	FIDE

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NVIDIA CORP	INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY	12,65	NVDA	US67066G1040	USD
ASML HOLDING NV	INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY	2,11	ASML	NL0010273215	EUR
MASTERCARD INC A	FINANCIALS	2,05	MA	US57636Q1040	USD
BROADCOM INC	INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY	2,03	AVGO	US11135F1012	USD
HOME DEPOT INC	CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY	1,8	HD	US4370761029	USD
ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES	INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY	1,43	AMD	US0079031078	USD
LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUI	CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY	1,22	MC	FR0000121014	EUR
VISA INC CLASS A SHARES	FINANCIALS	1,2	V	US92826C8394	USD
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APPLIED MATERIALS INC	INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY	0,97	AMAT	US0382221051	USD

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5 crypto trends to watch in 2025

Publicerad

1 dag sedan

den

21 januari, 2025

Redaktionen

2024 was a landmark year for bitcoin, solidifying its role as a fully institutionalised asset class.

Institutional inflows into physical bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) reached nearly $35 billion globally, signalling a major shift in how traditional investors view crypto. As bitcoin continued to enhance portfolios’ risk-return profiles, more institutional investors followed suit, reshaping the financial landscape.

Looking ahead, 2025 promises to bring exciting developments across the crypto ecosystem. Here are the top five crypto trends to watch.

Fear of being left behind

The era of bitcoin as a niche investment is over. Institutional adoption is creating a ripple effect, forcing hesitant players to reconsider. Portfolios with bitcoin allocations are consistently outperforming those without, highlighting its growing importance.

Figure 1: Bitcoin in a multi-asset portfolio

	60/40 Global Portfolio	1% Bitcoin Portfolio	3% Bitcoin Portfolio	5% Bitcoin Portfolio	10% Bitcoin Portfolio	MSCI AC World	Bloomberg Multiverse	Bitcoin
Annualised Return	5.77%	6.46%	7.83%	9.20%	12.57%	9.07%	0.56%	56.24%
Volatility	8.79%	8.86%	9.14%	9.62%	11.42%	13.94%	5.05%	67.28%
Sharpe Ratio	0.48	0.55	0.68	0.79	0.96	0.54	-0.20	0.81
Information Ratio		1.01	1.01	1.01	1.00
Beta	70%	71%	73%	75%	81%	100%	24%	181%

Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree. From 31 December 2013 to 30 November 2024. In USD. Based on daily returns. The 60/40 Global Portfolio is composed of 60% MSCI All Country World and 40% Bloomberg Multiverse. You cannot invest directly in an index. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investment may go down in value.

With bitcoin’s ability to noticeably improve portfolios’ risk-return profiles, asset managers face a clear choice: integrate bitcoin into multi-asset portfolios or risk falling behind in a rapidly evolving financial landscape. In 2025, expect the competition to heat up as clients demand exposure to this powerhouse cryptocurrency.

Expanding crypto investment options

In 2024, regulatory breakthroughs opened the doors for physical bitcoin and ether ETPs in key developed markets. This marked a critical step towards making cryptocurrencies mainstream, providing seamless access to institutional and retail investors alike.

Figure 2: Global physical crypto ETP assets under management (AUM) and 2024 net flows

Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree. 02 January 2025. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investment may go down in value.

In 2025, this momentum is expected to accelerate as the crypto regulatory environment becomes more friendly in the United States and as key developed markets follow Europe’s lead and approve ETPs for altcoins such as Solana and XRP. With their clear utility and growing adoption, these altcoins are strong candidates for institutional investment vehicles.

This next wave of altcoin ETPs will expand the diversity of crypto investment opportunities and further integrate cryptocurrencies into the global financial system.

The maturing of Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem

Ethereum’s role as the backbone of decentralised finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and Web3 is unmatched, but its scalability challenges remain a hurdle. Layer-2 solutions—technologies such as Arbitrum and Optimism—are transforming Ethereum’s scalability and usability by enabling faster, cheaper transactions.

In 2025, Ethereum’s recent upgrades, such as Proto-Danksharding (introduced in the ‘Dencun’ upgrade), will drive layer-2 adoption even further. Innovations like Visa’s layer-2 payment platform leveraging Ethereum for instant cross-border transactions will underscore the platform’s evolution.

Expect Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem to power real-world use cases ranging from tokenized assets to decentralised gaming, positioning it as the infrastructure of a truly scalable digital economy.

Stablecoins: bridging finance and blockchain

Stablecoins are becoming indispensable to the global financial system, offering the stability of traditional assets with the efficiency of blockchain. Platforms such as Ethereum dominate the stablecoin landscape, hosting stablecoin giants Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), which facilitate billions in daily transactions.

Figure 3: Key stablecoin chains

Source: Artemis Terminal, WisdomTree. 05 January 2025. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investment may go down in value.

As we move into 2025, stablecoins will increasingly interact with blockchain ecosystems such as Solana and XRP. Solana’s high-speed, low-cost infrastructure makes it ideal for stablecoin payments and remittances, while XRP Ledger’s focus on cross-border efficiency positions it as a leader in global settlements. With institutional adoption rising and DeFi applications booming, stablecoins will serve as the backbone of a seamless, interconnected financial ecosystem.

Tokenization: redefining ownership and revolutionising finance

Tokenization is set to redefine how we think about ownership and value. By converting tangible assets like real estate, commodities, stocks, and art into digital tokens, tokenization breaks down barriers to entry and creates unprecedented liquidity.

In 2025, tokenization will expand dramatically, empowering investors to own fractions of high-value assets. Platforms such as Paxos Gold and AspenCoin are already showcasing how tokenization can revolutionize markets for gold and luxury real estate. The integration of tokenized assets into DeFi will unlock new financial opportunities, such as using tokenized real estate as collateral for loans. As tokenization matures, it will transform industries ranging from private equity to venture capital, creating a more inclusive and efficient financial system.

For the avoidance of any doubt, tokenization complements crypto by expanding the use cases of blockchain to include real-world applications.

Looking ahead

2025 is set to be a defining year for crypto, as innovation, regulation, and adoption converge. Whether it is bitcoin cementing its position as a portfolio staple, Ethereum scaling for mainstream use, or tokenization unlocking liquidity in untapped markets, the crypto ecosystem is poised for explosive growth. For investors and institutions alike, the opportunities have never been clearer or more compelling.

This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

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FGLR ETF gör hållbara investeringar i hela världen

Publicerad

1 dag sedan

den

21 januari, 2025

Redaktionen

Fidelity Sustainable Research Enhanced Global Equity UCITS ETF Acc (FGLR ETF) med ISIN IE00BKSBGV72, är en aktivt förvaltad ETF.

Denna ETF investerar i aktier från utvecklade marknader över hela världen. Värdepapper väljs ut enligt hållbarhet och grundläggande kriterier.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,25 % p.a. Fidelity Sustainable Research Enhanced Global Equity UCITS ETF Acc är den enda ETF som följer Fidelity Sustainable Research Enhanced Global Equity-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Fidelity Sustainable Research Enhanced Global Equity UCITS ETF Acc är en liten ETF med tillgångar på 45 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 27 maj 2020 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

Fonden strävar efter att uppnå långsiktig kapitaltillväxt från en portfölj som huvudsakligen består av aktier i företag med säte globalt.

Handla FGLR ETF

Fidelity Sustainable Research Enhanced Global Equity UCITS ETF Acc (FGLR ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest, SAVR och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

Börs	Valuta	Kortnamn
gettex	EUR	FGLR
Borsa Italiana	EUR	FGLR
London Stock Exchange	USD	FGLR
London Stock Exchange	GBP	FGLS
SIX Swiss Exchange	USD	FGLR
SIX Swiss Exchange	CHF	FGLR
XETRA	EUR	FGLR

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Värdepapper	Vikt %
Microsoft Corp	5.0%
Apple Inc	4.7%
NVIDIA Corp	4.5%
Amazon.com Inc	2.6%
Meta Platforms Inc Class A	2.4%
Alphabet Inc Class A	2.0%
JPMorgan Chase & Co	1.9%
Visa Inc Class A	1.6%
Alphabet Inc Class C	1.4%
Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B	1.2%