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Gold inflows suggest sentiment is fragile as oil outflows accelerate on profit-taking
Commodity ETP Weekly – Gold inflows suggest sentiment is fragile as oil outflows accelerate on profit-taking
• Gold leads ytd precious metals inflows above US$1.5bn, as investor sentiment remains fragile.
• Oil outflows accelerated last week, as investors booked profits.
• Commodity price moves will depend on the US Federal Reserve meeting last week. Whether the central bank hikes rates or not will be crucial for investor sentiment and the direction for the US Dollar.
Gold leads precious metals inflows above US1.5bn in 2016. Physical gold ETPs recorded inflows for the 10th consecutive week totaling US$114.1mn. Cyclical assets, particularly equity markets, struggled to make headway, despite recent improvements in global economic activity. However, aggressive stimulus from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) surprised the market and gave fresh impetus to the gold price, as investors believe that real rates will remain under pressure for some time to come.
Silver, platinum and palladium outshine gold. Industrially-linked precious metals outperformed gold last week, a potential sign that pessimistic sentiment may be bottoming. Investors appear somewhat more cautious and the third consecutive weekly inflows into silver and platinum totalled US$43.1mn and US$12.5mn, respectively. While palladium was the best performer within the precious metals sector, it is the only metal to see net outflows over the course of 2016. Nonetheless, we expect momentum to gather pace as market volatility moderates and industrial demand picks up in line as global auto sales remain solid.
Profit-taking in oil ETPs sees largest outflows since April 2015. The International Energy Agency announced last week that a bottom in the oil price has potentially been reached. Nonetheless, investors appear unwilling to risk hard won gains, divestingUS67mn last week from long oil exchange traded products. Both Brent and WTI crude prices reached the highest level since early December 2015, but volatility remains elevated and could see gains reverse course as risk appetite is fragile. Although the Energy Information Administration reported that US production in December 2015 was the first year-on-year decline in over four years, stockpiles are at record levels (since 1982). Additionally, the weekly increase in stockpiles was the largest on record, indicating that demand still remains deficient to absorb supply.
Key events to watch this week. Central bank meetings will again take centre stage this week after the surprise moves last week from the ECB and RBNZ. The Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England are all holding policy meetings, but the market will be focussed on the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Commodity price direction will be dictated by two things directly related to the Fed’s decision: investor sentiment and the US Dollar. The last economic data release ahead of the Fed’s meeting, US retail sales and inflation, could be key to whether the central bank raises rates or not. Consumers have been an area of strength, boosted by low oil prices and improving jobs market. If this continues next week, the Fed could take (justified) action. We expect that the chance of a rate rise is still a distinct possibility despite the market pricing in less than a 10% chance of a hike. If the Fed hikes, expect gold to continue its move higher as sentiment slumps, despite a stronger USD.
Video Presentation
Martin Arnold, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
For more information contact
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
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Please find below Hashdex monthly crypto market update and performance attribution for Hashdex Crypto-Index ETPs for October 2024.
With October often showing strong seasonality for crypto assets, this month’s results reflect a promising trend for Bitcoin, although gains were more limited across Altcoins. As outlined in our latest CIO note, “Beyond Trump and Harris: Five Congressional Races That May Impact Crypto’s Future”, several upcoming US congressional races could shape the regulatory landscape for crypto, with potential implications for institutional adoption and future price action. Bipartisan support for the asset class is expected to grow, depending on the results of key races.
We will share some updates during the week, if you need any inputs on US elections, feel free to reach out to us.
Hashdex Crypto Index ETPs: performances (USD) as of end of October 24
• Beta Index ETP – Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH or HDX1) (largest Crypto Index ETP in Europe): October +7.1%, YTD +45%, 12M +89%.
• Smart-Beta Index ETP – Crypto Momentum Index ETP (HAMO or HDXM): October -0.5%, YTD +1.2%, 12M +71%.
Market Update – October 24
October, commonly known as ”Uptober” for its seasonally strong performance for Bitcoin, continued this trend in 2024. The month began with a volatile period, as the Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) initially gave back gains from September. All NCI constituents declined in the first ten days, with the exception of Uniswap, which announced plans for its own layer-two network on Ethereum.
Mid-month, the sentiment shifted, with a sharp rally that drove Bitcoin close to its all-time high by the 29th. The NCI ultimately closed the month up 7.1%, significantly outpacing traditional markets as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 declined slightly. This rally coincided with a sharp increase in former president Donald Trump’s odds in election betting markets, generating additional optimism around Bitcoin.
While Bitcoin posted a robust 10.6% gain, Altcoins generally underperformed. The notable positive exception among altcoins was Solana, which rose 9.0%. In contrast, Ripple declined 18.6% due to ongoing SEC litigation, and Polygon’s MATIC dropped over 20% as it migrated to a new token model (POL).
Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) relative to other asset class in October 24
Source: Hashdex, as of 30/10/24.
In comparison with traditional assets, the NCI’s 7.1% gain far outpaced the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, both of which posted slight declines. This performance underscores the potential for crypto assets to provide upside during periods of broader market uncertainty. The majority of this outperformance was driven by Bitcoin’s strength, underscoring its role as a cornerstone of the crypto asset class and its growing appeal as a macroeconomic hedge.
Performance attribution:
Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI)
The NCI recorded positive returns for most of its primary constituents, with Bitcoin (+10.6%) leading the gains. Solana (SOL) also contributed positively, rising 9.0%. However, Ripple (XRP) and Polygon’s MATIC weighed on the index, with losses of 18.6% and over 20%, respectively. Ripple’s decline was largely attributed to ongoing legal issues with the SEC, while MATIC’s transition to the POL token created additional downward pressure.
Source: Hashdex, as of 31/10/24.
Crypto Momentum Factor Index
The Crypto Momentum Factor Index showed a slight monthly decline of 0.5% in October, reflecting the underperformance of altcoins in general. Although Tron (TRX) remained relatively stable, other altcoins in the index faced headwinds, leading to a small monthly loss for the index.
Source: Hashdex, as of 31/10/24.
Correlation (3m) to traditional asset classes
Source: Hashdex, as of 31/10/24. NCI for Nasdaq Crypto Index.
Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP
Largest Crypto Index ETP in Europe, AUM ~$400m
ISIN: CH1184151731 / Tickers: HASH (SIX and Euronext) or HDX1 (Xetra) – tradable in USD, EUR, CHF and GBP
Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP
ISIN: CH1218734544 / Tickers: HAMO (SIX and Euronext) or HDXM (Xetra) – tradable in USD, EUR, CHF and GBP
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Microsoft considers bitcoin, UBS launches tokenized fund, and MicroStrategy will buy $42B in BTC
Crypto markets faced a volatile week as key macroeconomic events approached, with the upcoming US presidential election and anticipated Fed rate decision fueling uncertainty in risk assets. Bitcoin (BTC) rose 1.7%, ether (ETH) declined 1%, Solana (SOL) fell 8.2%, and the Nasdaq Crypto IndexTM (NCITM) was down 0.5%.
Microsoft to consider bitcoin investment starting December
According to a new SEC filing, Microsoft is considering the possibility of investing in Bitcoin as a hedge strategy against inflation despite opposition from its Board of Directors. This move, by one of the world’s largest companies, would mark a significant step in institutional adoption for Bitcoin.
MicroStrategy discloses plans to buy $42B of BTC
The firm announced bold plans to raise $42 billion over the next three years to acquire more bitcoin. This new wave of capital will be split equally, with $21 billion from equity issuance and $21 billion from debt offerings, in a project called the ”21/21” plan. This move, led by founder Michael Saylor, underscores bitcoin’s potential as a valuable hedge against inflation and highlights its appeal as a strategic investment option.
UBS launches its first tokenized fund on Ethereum
UBS Asset Management has launched its first tokenized fund, the USD Money Market Investment Fund Token (uMINT), a money market fund built on the Ethereum blockchain, available through authorized partners. The launch supports the growing demand for tokenized financial assets and leverages distributed technology to enhance fund issuance and distribution, as well as UBS’s broader strategy to expand its tokenization services.
Oct. 24 crypto market update & Performance attribution Hashdex Crypto Index ETPs
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