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Gold inflows suggest sentiment is fragile as oil outflows accelerate on profit-taking
Commodity ETP Weekly – Gold inflows suggest sentiment is fragile as oil outflows accelerate on profit-taking
• Gold leads ytd precious metals inflows above US$1.5bn, as investor sentiment remains fragile.
• Oil outflows accelerated last week, as investors booked profits.
• Commodity price moves will depend on the US Federal Reserve meeting last week. Whether the central bank hikes rates or not will be crucial for investor sentiment and the direction for the US Dollar.
Gold leads precious metals inflows above US1.5bn in 2016. Physical gold ETPs recorded inflows for the 10th consecutive week totaling US$114.1mn. Cyclical assets, particularly equity markets, struggled to make headway, despite recent improvements in global economic activity. However, aggressive stimulus from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) surprised the market and gave fresh impetus to the gold price, as investors believe that real rates will remain under pressure for some time to come.
Silver, platinum and palladium outshine gold. Industrially-linked precious metals outperformed gold last week, a potential sign that pessimistic sentiment may be bottoming. Investors appear somewhat more cautious and the third consecutive weekly inflows into silver and platinum totalled US$43.1mn and US$12.5mn, respectively. While palladium was the best performer within the precious metals sector, it is the only metal to see net outflows over the course of 2016. Nonetheless, we expect momentum to gather pace as market volatility moderates and industrial demand picks up in line as global auto sales remain solid.
Profit-taking in oil ETPs sees largest outflows since April 2015. The International Energy Agency announced last week that a bottom in the oil price has potentially been reached. Nonetheless, investors appear unwilling to risk hard won gains, divestingUS67mn last week from long oil exchange traded products. Both Brent and WTI crude prices reached the highest level since early December 2015, but volatility remains elevated and could see gains reverse course as risk appetite is fragile. Although the Energy Information Administration reported that US production in December 2015 was the first year-on-year decline in over four years, stockpiles are at record levels (since 1982). Additionally, the weekly increase in stockpiles was the largest on record, indicating that demand still remains deficient to absorb supply.
Key events to watch this week. Central bank meetings will again take centre stage this week after the surprise moves last week from the ECB and RBNZ. The Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England are all holding policy meetings, but the market will be focussed on the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Commodity price direction will be dictated by two things directly related to the Fed’s decision: investor sentiment and the US Dollar. The last economic data release ahead of the Fed’s meeting, US retail sales and inflation, could be key to whether the central bank raises rates or not. Consumers have been an area of strength, boosted by low oil prices and improving jobs market. If this continues next week, the Fed could take (justified) action. We expect that the chance of a rate rise is still a distinct possibility despite the market pricing in less than a 10% chance of a hike. If the Fed hikes, expect gold to continue its move higher as sentiment slumps, despite a stronger USD.
Video Presentation
Martin Arnold, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
For more information contact
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
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This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
- Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
- Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
- What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?
Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has amassed a staggering $43 billion in Bitcoin, positioning itself at the forefront of the corporate “reserve race.” Under the leadership of Bitcoin maximalist Michael Saylor, the company now boasts an $84 billion market cap. But with such an aggressive strategy, how sustainable is its approach—and what risks lie ahead? We break it down in today’s analysis.
Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
A drop below $72,000 could flush longs, while a breakout above $90,000 may squeeze shorts. One key positive indicator is that Bitcoin continues to print higher lows since March 10, which preserves a bullish market structure in our view. Dive into our technical analysis.
What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?
Imagine owning a slice of a skyscraper or a piece of fine art with just a few clicks. Tokenization, the act of converting ownership rights to real-world assets (RWAs) into tradable tokens, has surpassed $10 billion in on-chain value, unlocking global 24/7 access to once-exclusive markets with liquidity, efficiency, and yield. Find out how it works.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
Since President Trump appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chair two months ago, many investigations into crypto businesses have been dropped, as the SEC moves away from regulation by enforcement and works to create a framework for digital assets. As regulations become clearer and news flow turns more positive, crypto prices—which dropped sharply this week—should begin to better reflect the new regulatory landscape in the US.
We believe this regulatory shift could ultimately help trigger the next leg of the current bull run, as investors better understand the significance of regulatory clarity and seek to acquire bitcoin and altcoins at what we believe are currently very favorable levels.
Market Highlights
SEC Dismisses Crypto Enforcement Actions
The SEC dropped its enforcement actions against crypto-related companies Kraken, Consensys, and Cumberland DRW.
This indicates a shift in SEC’s regulatory approach, favoring clearer guidelines over enforcement actions. Such a pivot could foster a more predictable environment, encouraging innovation within the sector.
Banks to Engage in Crypto Activities
The FDIC has rescinded previous guidelines which prevented financial institutions from engaging with crypto activities without prior sign-off.
By removing bureaucratic hurdles, banks may more readily offer crypto-related services, potentially leading to broader adoption and integration of digital assets.
Bitcoin ETFs Inflow Streak Surpassed $1 Billion
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a 10-day inflow streak exceeding $1 billion marking the longest such streak in 2025.
This underscores growing institutional and retail investor confidence in Bitcoin as an asset class that helps increase market stability and possibly paving the way for the approval of other crypto-based financial products.
Market Metrics
All NCITM constituents had negative performance last week, with XRP (-10.8%) and UNI (-10.7%) seeing the steepest declines. ETH also experienced a sharp drop (-9.1%), contributing to NCITM’s underperformance relative to BTC (-2.9%). The NCITM -4.2% decline reflects a broader risk-off sentiment in the crypto market, as investors reassess their positions amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.
NCITM (-4.2%) extended its underperformance last week, deepening year-to-date losses. Traditional indices like the S&P 500 (-1.5%) and Nasdaq 100 (-2.4%) saw smaller declines. The gap between crypto and other risk assets continues to widen, while gold has emerged as the top performer in 2025, gaining nearly 20% amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. This trend highlights a growing risk-off sentiment, with investors shifting toward defensive assets and away from high-volatility investments.
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