- Gold ETPs saw inflows of US$32mn for the final week in December.
- Crude oil ETPs saw further outflows of US$28mn last week, we have seen 22 consecutive weeks of outflows highlighting pessimism amongst investors.
- In Currency ETPs we saw US$10mn and US$11mn respectively for the US dollar and Euro short positions.
The flows for the final week in December were understandably low for most commodities with the exception of gold and oil.
Gold ETPs saw inflows of US$32mn for the final week in December which we believe is a rebound following the December 14th US Federal Reserve interest rate hike coupled with the escalating worries in North Korea and Iran. The inflows follow a month of net outflows totalling US$106mn. For the full year gold ETPs saw inflows totalling US$513mn leaving total assets under management (AUM) at US$12.8bn. Looking across other precious metals all saw inflows totalling US$124mn for the full year, this was helped by inflows into silver and platinum representing 10% and 15% of AUM respectively. Palladium, was the only precious metal to see outflows, totalling US$166mn, likely due to profit taking after posting returns for the full year of 56%, well above Gold’s full year returns of 11%.
Crude oil ETPs saw further outflows of US$28mn last week, we have seen 22 consecutive weeks of outflows highlighting pessimism amongst investors over the rise in prices over the second half of 2017. The US pressure over extending sanctions in Iran, and the recent unrest there, have pushed up oil prices. Oil investors remain very sensitive to geopolitical unrest in Iran, the third largest producer in OPEC. We believe the impact has been exaggerated. With the US expanding supply and OPEC likely to under deliver on its promise to consistently curb production, we expect the supply to grow. At the same time demand is unlikely to continue to grow at the current pace, with prices having gained 33% over the past year. We expect the oil price to remain in a range from US$45 to US$60/bbl for 2018, although a more significant geopolitical upset in the Middle East could cause temporary price spikes.
In Currency ETPs we saw US$10mn and US$11mn respectively for the US dollar and Euro short positions during the month of December. Over the same period both the GBP and NOK saw inflows in to long positions of US$6.9mn and US$5.4mn respectively.
Important Information
General
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).
The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.
This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.
