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Gold Follows Rate Hike Pattern

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Gold and Precious Metals Weakness to Rally: Gold Follows Rate Hike Pattern Rate Increase and Political Uncertainty in U.S. are Primary Drivers

Gold and Precious Metals Weakness to Rally: Gold Follows Rate Hike Pattern

Rate Increase and Political Uncertainty in U.S. are Primary Drivers in March

Expectations around the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) March 15 rate announcement were the principal drivers of the gold market in March. U.S. economic statistics have been somewhat positive recently, leading the market to expect the Fed to become more hawkish and to perhaps even guide for four rate increases in 2017 (one more than the Fed had announced in December). As a result, gold was weak ahead of the Fed’s rate decision, falling roughly $50 over two weeks to the $1,200 per ounce level. On March 15 when the Fed implemented its first 2017 rate hike as expected, it maintained its projection of only two more rate increases this year. Economic guidance also remained unchanged and Chair Janet Yellen said the Fed is willing to tolerate temporary inflation in order to overshoot its two percent target. The $1,200 per ounce gold price level held on the dovish Fed announcements and gold rallied to end the month with a small gain closing March at $1,249.35 per ounce.

Political activity in the U.S. was also supportive of gold. As we had expected, the market euphoria surrounding the November U.S. presidential election continues to dissipate. The Trump administration has suffered two strikes: the courts are blocking the implementation of new travel restrictions, and the House has blocked healthcare reform. In our opinion, these early defeats make it increasingly unlikely that the administration will be able to deliver on the expected pro-growth reforms that drove the market to new highs following the election. We believe one more strike could create a confidence crisis, which makes meaningful tax reform the next issue that will be vital for Trump’s presidency to gain some positive momentum.

The price trend for gold stocks mimicked gold bullion in March, for the most part. Both the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index1(GDMNTR) and the MVIS™ Junior Gold Miners Index2 (MVGDXJTR) fell ahead of the March 15 Fed announcement and gained afterwards, but, unlike the metal, both gold stock indices ended the month with small losses overall.

Gold’s Before and After Rate Hike Pattern

The March 0.25% Fed rate increase was the third in this tightening cycle that began in December 2015. In all three instances, increasing pessimism in the gold market caused gold to fall to long-term or technical lows. This pessimism was caused by anticipation of rising real rates, a strong U.S. dollar, and faith in the Fed’s outlook for a strengthening economy. However, the economy has not been as robust as hoped and recently, rising inflation has caused real rates to fall. The Fed rate increase in December 2015 was a major turning point, marking the end of the historic 2011 – 2015 bear market for gold. A shift in sentiment also lead to gold rallies following the December 2016 and March 2017 rate hikes. Markets were irrationally causing the U.S. dollar to become overbought and gold to be oversold before each rate increase. Three times makes a pattern and if we have learned anything in our history of investing, it’s that trading patterns end once they are recognized. We will look for market sentiment, Fed behavior, or some other driver to help change the pattern when the Fed hikes rates again. The market expects the next possible rate hike at the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

The Current (More Rational) Market Bubble Could Pop on Growing Debt

The current economic expansion and bull market in stocks are among the longest on record. Such cycles do not last forever and we have commented in the past on the risks an economic downturn would bring to the financial system. While valuations for stocks and real estate are lofty, the level of mania that we had felt ahead of the tech bust (2001) or housing bubble (2008) has not materialized. Although the popularity of exchange traded funds (ETFs) and other passive investment vehicles could be seen as a form of mania, it is difficult to see anything happening in those vehicles that foreshadows a market crash. Perhaps, if there is to be a downturn, this time it will likely be more orderly than others in the recent past.

While economic downturns are not necessarily drivers for gold, since the subprime crisis of 2008-2009 the financial system has been in such a precarious state that even a mild recession could be financially devastating, thus ultimately benefitting gold and gold stocks. The difference in this cycle is, firstly, that sovereign debt globally is higher than it has ever been during peacetime and it continues to grow. The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) annual report shows the debt/GDP ratio3 has doubled since 2008 to 77% today and is forecasted to reach 150% in 2047. The CBO also forecasts debt service rising from 7% today to 21% in 2047. The budget deficit was not mentioned in President Trump’s February 28 speech to Congress. We believe no politician wants to seriously tackle the debt bubble for fear of getting voted out of office for raising taxes or cutting entitlements.

Recently we have seen that it appears politically impossible to implement the necessary reforms required to avoid insolvency or a systemic failure of the public healthcare insurance system. Social Security is yet another entitlement that appears to be heading toward insolvency. Gridlock reigns, which makes a debt crisis or another calamity a prerequisite to motivate those in Washington to act constructively. Such a crisis becomes much more likely in a recessionary economy.

The Fed’s three rate increases in this cycle amount to 75 basis points (0.25% on December 16, 2015; 0.25% on December 14, 2016; and 0.25% on March 15, 2017). U.S. rates remain far below historic norms and rates in other advanced economies are even lower. Quantitative easing did not work as well as planned. The Fed is holding trillions of dollars in U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities on its balance sheet and may have to resort to more radical policies to stimulate the economy in the next recession, which brings added financial risks.

Indications of a Late-Cycle Economy Are Increasing

Here are a number of signs of a late-cycle economy and market. Many of these were highlighted in recent Gluskin Sheff4 newsletters:

•    At eight years, the S&P 500® Index5 is in its second longest bull market since 1928.
•    With a 16.9% annualized gain, this is the third strongest S&P bull market since 1928.
•    Despite stock market gains, GDP growth has expanded just 1.8% annually, versus 3.4% during the longest bull market, occurring from 1987 to 2000.
•    10 of the last 13 Fed hiking cycles ended with a recession.
•    Price to Earnings multiples are in the top quintiles historically and the most expensive since the dot-com bubble (1995-2001).
•    Margin debt is at all-time highs.
•    Auto sales and loan delinquencies suggest automotive activity has peaked.
•    A record 279 corporate insiders have sold stock so far this year.
•    Initial jobless claims are at their cycle lows, typical historically in the waning months/years of expansions.
•    Each of the seventeen Republican presidents since Ulysses S. Grant has experienced a recession within roughly two years of taking office.

Sentiment and Consumption: A Recession Precursor?

A recent Morgan Stanley report interestingly examines historical consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index,6 and personal consumption expenditures7 (PCE). The sentiment of consumers and businesses (soft data) has been trending higher, while data that tracks actual economic results (hard data) has stagnated. This chart is particularly compelling. Notice the divergence between the soft and hard data preceding the last three recessions. A similar divergence is happening now, as consumer confidence appears to have reached its highest level since the tech bust.

Divergence Between Sentiment and Consumption Precedes Recessions

(click to enlarge) Source: Bloomberg; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data as of February 28. 2017.

While we hope that President Trump is able to bring tax, regulatory, and other reforms that energize the U.S. economy, political headwinds and late cycle evidence suggest it is prudent for investors to begin to hedge against the financial pain that the next recession might bring.

by Joe Foster, Portfolio Manager and Strategist

With more than 30 years of gold industry experience, Foster began his gold career as a boots on the ground geologist, evaluating mining exploration and development projects. Foster is Portfolio Manager and Strategist for the Gold and Precious Metals strategy..

Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time.

1NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) is a modified market capitalization-weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold.

2MVIS™ Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) is a rules-based, modified market capitalization-weighted, float-adjusted index comprised of a global universe of publicly traded small- and medium-capitalization companies that generate at least 50% of their revenues from gold and/or silver mining, hold real property that has the potential to produce at least 50% of the company’s revenue from gold or silver mining when developed, or primarily invest in gold or silver.

3In economics, the debt-to-GDP ratio is the ratio between a country’s government debt (a cumulative amount) and its gross domestic product (GDP) (measured in years). A low debt-to-GDP ratio indicates an economy that produces and sells goods and services sufficient to pay back debts without incurring further debt.

4Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc., a Canadian independent wealth management firm, manages investment portfolios for high net worth investors, including entrepreneurs, professionals, family trusts, private charitable foundations, and estates.

5The S&P 500® Index (SPX) consists of 500 widely held common stocks, covering four broad sectors (industrials, utilities, financial, and transportation).

6The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® is an indicator designed to measure consumer confidence, which is defined as the degree of optimism on the state of the economy that consumers are expressing through their activities of savings and spending.

7Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the primary measure of consumer spending on goods and services in the U.S. economy. It accounts for about two-thirds of domestic final spending, and thus it is the primary engine that drives future economic growth.

Important Disclosures

This commentary originates from VanEck Associates Corporation (“VanEck”) and does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security.

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Fem spanska fonder som har ökat med +12% under 2025

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År 2025 visar sig bli ett tufft år för finansmarknaderna. Med det första kvartalet fortfarande att avslutat upplever de stora internationella aktieindexen kraftiga nedgångar, där indexfonder baserade på S&P 500 och Nasdaq drabbas särskilt hårt. Det finns dock en kategori som står sig starkt: Ibex 35 indexfonder, som har blivit en av årets mest räddningsvärda tillgångar. Det finns fem spanska fonder som har ökat med +12% under 2025.

År 2025 visar sig bli ett tufft år för finansmarknaderna. Med det första kvartalet fortfarande att avslutat upplever de stora internationella aktieindexen kraftiga nedgångar, där indexfonder baserade på S&P 500 och Nasdaq-100 drabbas särskilt hårt. Det finns dock en kategori som står sig starkt: Ibex 35 indexfonder, som har blivit en av årets mest räddningsvärda tillgångar. Det finns fem spanska fonder som har ökat med +12% under 2025.

Mer specifikt har fonder som investerar i spanska aktier (både indexfonder och aktivt förvaltade) ackumulerat en genomsnittlig avkastning på 14,29 % hittills under 2025. Denna siffra gör kategorin till den mest lönsamma bland aktiefonder, och den näst mest lönsamma av alla investeringsfondkategorier, efter endast guld- och ädelmetallfonder, som har skjutit i höjden med en omvärdering på mer än 40 %.

Inom den spanska kategorin upplever Ibex 35 indexfonder en stark utveckling, med avkastning överstigande 12 % under 2025. Nedan granskar vi årets fem mest lönsamma Ibex indexfonder, rangordnade från lägst till högst avkastning:

BBVA Bolsa Índice FI

Denna Ibex 35 indexfond, som förvaltas av BBVA Asset Management, har stigit med 12,03 % hittills i år. Under de senaste 5 åren har den erbjudit en genomsnittlig avkastning på 16,12 %.

Den har tillgångar på 116,5 miljoner euro och följer Ibex 35 Net Return-indexet, vilket inkluderar utdelningar. Dess nuvarande kostnader är 1,21 %.

10 största portföljpositioner

VärdepapperVikt%
Inditex (Industria de Diseño Textil S.A.)13,57%
Banco Santander S.A.13,16%
Iberdrola S.A.12,39%
BBVA (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A.)10,32%
CaixaBank S.A.5,36%
Amadeus IT Group S.A.4,57%
Ferrovial SE4,42%
Futuro sobre IBEX 353,75%
Aena SME S.A.3,60%
Telefónica S.A.3,40%

Santander Indice España FI Openbank

Santander Asset Managements indexfond Ibex 35 har en avkastning på 12,08 % år 2025. Under fem år har den ackumulerat en avkastning på 16,20 %.

Den förvaltar tillgångar till ett värde av 961,7 miljoner euro, vilket gör den till en av de största fonderna i detta urval. Förvaltningsavgiften är 0,70 % och de löpande kostnaderna är 1,11 %.

10 största portföljpositioner

VärdepapperVikt%
Inditex (Industria de Diseño Textil S.A.)14,18%
Iberdrola S.A.12,70%
Banco Santander S.A.10,82%
Futuro sobre Ibex 35 (venc. 02/2025)9,90%
BBVA (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A.)9,16%
Bono España 0,65%5,57%
CaixaBank S.A.4,84%
Amadeus IT Group S.A.4,60%
Ferrovial SE4,40%
Aena SME S.A.3,60%

ING Direct Fondo Naranja Ibex 35 FI

Fondo Naranja Ibex 35 de ING, som förvaltas av Amundi Iberia, har hittills under 2025 haft en avkastning på 12,13 %. Under femårsperioden har den ackumulerat en avkastning på 16,31 %.

Denna fond har tillgångar på 268,4 miljoner euro och replikerar Ibex 35 Net Return. Förvaltningsavgiften är 0,99 % och de löpande kostnaderna är 1,1 %.

10 största portföljpositioner

VärdepapperVikt%
Inditex (Industria de Diseño Textil S.A.)13,90%
Banco Santander S.A.13,48%
Iberdrola S.A.12,69%
BBVA (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A.)10,57%
CaixaBank S.A.5,49%
Amadeus IT Group S.A.4,68%
Ferrovial SE4,53%
Aena SME S.A.3,68%
Telefónica S.A.3,49%
Cellnex Telecom S.A.3,48%

Caixabank Bolsa Índice España Estándar FI

Caixabank AM-fonden har hittills under 2025 redovisat en ökning på 12,23 %. Dess genomsnittliga avkastning under de senaste fem åren har varit 16,72 %.

Dess förvaltade tillgångar uppgår till 335,5 miljoner euro, och det motsvarar Ibex 35 Net Return. Din provision är i detta fall 1 % och dina nuvarande utgifter är 1,03 %.

10 största portföljpositioner

VärdepapperVikt%
Iberdrola S.A.13,61%
Banco Santander S.A.13,28%
Inditex (Industria de Diseño Textil S.A.)12,13%
BBVA (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A.)10,22%
CaixaBank S.A.5,82%
Amadeus IT Group S.A.4,49%
Ferrovial SE4,25%
Aena SME S.A.3,68%
Telefónica S.A.3,49%
Cellnex Telecom S.A.3,28%

Bindex España Índice FI

Och den mest lönsamma fonden bland de som är indexerade mot Ibex 35 år 2025 (även om vi talar om tiondelar och hundradelar jämfört med resten) är Bindex Spain Index, från BBVA Asset Management. Denna fond har hittills i år haft en avkastning på 12,35 % och en 5-årsavkastning på 17,35 %.

Med tillgångar på 146,4 miljoner euro har denna fond etablerat sig som det billigaste alternativet av de fem (förvaltningsavgift på 0,11 % och löpande kostnader på 0,14 %). Den replikerar också Ibex 35 Total Return.

10 största portföljpositioner

VärdepapperVikt%
Inditex (Industria de Diseño Textil S.A.)13,62%
Banco Santander S.A.13,20%
Iberdrola S.A.12,43%
BBVA (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A.)10,35%
CaixaBank S.A.5,38%
Amadeus IT Group S.A.4,59%
Ferrovial SE4,44%
Aena SME S.A.3,61%
Telefónica S.A.3,42%
Cellnex Telecom S.A.3,41%

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ASRP ETF ett spel på medtech företag världen över

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BNP Paribas Easy ECPI Global ESG Med Tech UCITS ETF EUR (ASRP ETF) med ISIN LU2365457410, försöker följa ECPI Global ESG Medical Tech-index. ECPI Global ESG Medical Tech-index spårar företag från utvecklade marknader över hela världen som är aktiva inom medicinteknikbranschen. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning). De utvalda värdepapperen viktas lika i indexet.

BNP Paribas Easy ECPI Global ESG Med Tech UCITS ETF EUR (ASRP ETF) med ISIN LU2365457410, försöker följa ECPI Global ESG Medical Tech-index. ECPI Global ESG Medical Tech-index spårar företag från utvecklade marknader över hela världen som är aktiva inom medicinteknikbranschen. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning). De utvalda värdepapperen viktas lika i indexet.

Den börshandlade fondens (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,30 % p.a. BNP Paribas Easy ECPI Global ESG Med Tech UCITS ETF EUR är den billigaste och största ETF som följer ECPI Global ESG Medical Tech-index. ETF:n replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

BNP Paribas Easy ECPI Global ESG Med Tech UCITS ETF EUR är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 12 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 10 december 2021 och har sin hemvist i Luxemburg.

Handla ASRP ETF

BNP Paribas Easy ECPI Global ESG Med Tech UCITS ETF EUR (ASRP ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Borsa Italiana.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURASRP
Borsa ItalianaEUREGEMT
Euronext ParisEURMEDTE
XETRAEURASRP

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Europafokuserade ETPer ser större andel av flödena under första kvartalet

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HANetf har släppt sin rapport om börshandlade europeiska ETPer för första kvartalet 2025, som avslöjar banbrytande insikter i den snabba utvecklingen av den europeiska ETF-marknaden.

HANetf har släppt sin rapport om börshandlade europeiska ETPer för första kvartalet 2025, som avslöjar banbrytande insikter i den snabba utvecklingen av den europeiska ETF-marknaden.

Tillgångar i europeiska ETPer nådde 2,4 biljoner dollar under första kvartalet, varav ETFer stod för 2,28 biljoner dollar. Kärnaktions-ETFer ledde flödena (45,70 miljarder dollar) medan räntebärande ETFer ökade med 15,19 miljarder dollar.

Viktiga data

  • Europeiska ETPer överstiger 2,4 biljoner dollar i förvaltat kapital under första kvartalet 2025
  • Flöden omdirigerades till Europafokuserade ETPer jämfört med USA-fokuserade mitt i tullkrisen
  • Kärnaktions-ETFer överstiger milstolpen på 1 biljon dollar i förvaltat kapital med 45,70 miljarder dollar i nettoflöden under första kvartalet
  • Aktiva ETFer i förvaltat kapital ökade med 11,65 % under första kvartalet och optionsbaserade ETFer i förvaltat kapital med 54,55 %.
  • Antalet europeiska ETP-varumärken fortsätter att öka och uppgår nu till totalt 131.
  • Europa godkänner semitransparenta ETFer, vilket potentiellt uppmuntrar fler aktiva förvaltare i USA att gå in på den europeiska ETF-marknaden.
  • Försvars-ETFer såg flöden på 4,16 miljarder dollar under första kvartalet, vilket motsvarar 4,5 % av de totala ETF-flödena i Europa och en 5-faldig ökning jämfört med föregående kvartal.

Läs hela rapporten för att upptäcka kvartalsdata, ETF-marknadens utveckling, tillväxten inom nya områden som optionsbaserade ETFer och mer.

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