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Gold Extends its Strength in April

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Market Review - Gold Extends its Strength in April. The gold market has moved from a position of strength to one of even greater strength.

Market Review – Gold Extends its Strength in April. The gold market has moved from a position of strength to one of even greater strength. The gold price entered a consolidation in March but never traded below $1,200 per ounce. Late in April the gold price broke out of its consolidating pattern to reach its 2016 high of $1,296 per ounce and ended April at $1,292.99 per ounce for a gain of $60.28 (4.9%). On May 2 gold traded above $1,300 per ounce for the first time since January 2015. We believe that an increasing sense of financial risk and U.S. dollar weakness are driving investment demand for gold. When commenting on the global economy in a Bloomberg interview on April 5, International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Lagarde indicated that downside risks have increased and “we don’t see much by way of upside.” Gold moved to its high for the month following the Commerce Department’s April 28 release of weaker-than-expected first quarter U.S. GDP growth of just 0.5% annualized. Markets seemed confounded by the strength exhibited by the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Euro (EUR), despite negative rate policies in both regions. As a result, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)1 declined 1.7% in April and fell to a 15-month low on May 2.

This year’s bull market in precious metals gained in breadth as silver kicked into gear in April. Like gold, silver is a monetary metal but it had been lagging gold’s performance. In fact, the gold/silver ratio reached a long-term high of 83.2 on March 1. Strong inflows into silver bullion exchange traded products (ETPs) in March and April enabled silver’s year-to-date performance to surpass gold on April 14. For the year, silver is up 28.7%, while gold has gained 21.9% and the gold/silver ratio ended the month at 72.4. We regard silver as a leveraged proxy for gold and wouldn’t be surprised to see the gold/silver ratio continue to fall further towards its long-term average of around 60.

Another sign of the strength of the current market is the performance of gold stocks. On April 8 the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR)2 surpassed its previous high for the year and never looked back, advancing 28.1% in April. Many of the larger producers announced favorable first quarter results in April, which boosted the performance of gold equities.

Our patience was tested in the first quarter by the underperformance of many junior producers and developers. The junior gold stocks had been lagging but our perseverance has appeared to pay off. The MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR)3 gained 36.8% in April and had lagged the GDMNTR until April 8 but is now outperforming the GDMNTR by 11.7% for the year. The MVGDXJTR caught up with the GDMNTR for the year by outperforming in March with an 8.6% gain.

Market Outlook

We identified several reasons for this year’s spectacular rise in gold stocks, which has caused gold stocks (GDMNTR) to gain 87.4% and the juniors (MVGDXJTR) to gain 99.1% year-to-date:

• Positive changes in sentiment and investment demand for gold.
• Companies have successfully slashed costs, cut debt, gained efficiencies, and generated cash.
• Mean reversion in a sector that had been oversold during the worst bear market in history.
• Elimination of short selling pressure that had been weighing on gold and gold stocks since they crashed in 2013.
• Limited liquidity in a relatively small sector with a global market cap of just $260 billion.

These heady gains suggest to us that gold stocks have become overbought. We expect there will probably be a correction at some point this year. Seasonal patterns have been absent in the gold market for the past several years, possibly due to the overwhelming selling pressure that prevailed. Without such intense selling, we may again see seasonal patterns from Asia and India lead to some weakness in the summer months but strengthening in the fall and extending into the new year. We remain cognizant that GDMNTR is still down 61% from its 2011 highs, which translates to a 159% gain needed to return to 2011 levels. The gold price was much higher in 2011 as well, topping at $1,921 per ounce, but we think the earnings power of the gold sector is greater now than it was back then. We estimate that a $100 (roughly 8%) move in the gold price from $1,300 to $1,400 per ounce would result in a 38% increase in free cash flow for the majors in our research universe, while the mid-tier producers would see a 68% increase in free cash.

The $217 per ounce (23%) increase in the gold price since the U.S. Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) hiked interest rates in mid-December wasn’t caused by a crash or panic in the financial markets. There hasn’t been a systemic crisis and in fact, global conditions today aren’t that different than six months ago when gold struggled near its lows. In our view, the fundamental change that has enabled gold to perform well since the Fed’s rate announcement is a change in investors’ view of central banks. The U.S. dollar has weakened mainly because the market no longer anticipates a series of Fed rate increases. Investors are realizing that central bank policies lack efficacy and have run their course without accomplishing their intended results. In general, central banks appear to be rapidly running out of options to help stimulate economies. In fact, rather than helping, quantitative easing, zero rates, and negative rates have created distortions in capital allocation, leading to the mispricing of assets and currencies, wealth inequality, and possibly other harmful, unintended consequences on the financial system.

We think the solution to most of the world’s problems hinges on re-establishing robust economic growth. A major reason that central bank policies haven’t been able to foster as much growth as desired is that fiscal and regulatory policies are working against them. Governments around the world have increased debt to unheard of levels to raise capital to spend on projects, programs, and entitlements that generate a fraction of the jobs and growth that the same capital may have generated through private sector channels.

The popular perception that the banks were responsible for the subprime crisis has resulted in fines and regulatory burdens that hamper the formation of capital at the center of the financial system. The “wolf” character in the 2013 movie “The Wolf of Wall Street” ran a boiler room on Long Island that was unrelated to investment banks on Wall Street. The 2015 film “The Big Short,” an Academy Award nominee for Best Motion Picture, puts the blame for the financial crisis squarely on the banks. It makes barely any mention of the Government Sponsored Enterprises’ (GSEs such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac4) role in sponsoring subprime loans or the long-running government policies under the Clinton and Bush Administrations that enabled high risk borrowers to own homes despite their inability to service a mortgage. The tone was set in 2009 when President Obama labeled bankers as “fat cats.” While banks certainly played a part, the government played the lead, in our opinion. Unfortunately, these misperceptions and misplaced blame have guided policy, leading to a financial system that is probably weaker than it was before the crisis. We believe that the economy is clearly weaker.

In addition, regulations that burden the private sector have also increased. According to The Wall Street Journal, the Obama Administration is on track to issue 439 major regulations in its 8 years in office, more than the Bush Administration’s 358 or Clinton’s 361. Heaping on more and more regulations only serves to stifle business formation, profitability, and innovation.

A similar tipping point has been reached with tax policies. Some companies have been re-domiciling away from the United States to avoid tax rates that are among the highest in the world. Instead of revising and simplifying the tax code to address the problem, the U.S. Treasury implemented new regulations that force U.S. corporations to remain in the U.S., placing them at a disadvantage to their global peers.

How often do we see leaders in government promote policies that help make business more productive, efficient, or profitable? As to where we are heading, we look to possibly the most monolithic governmental institution in the world. An article published in The Wall Street Journal and written by a retiring United Nations (“UN”) assistant secretary general for field support articulated a sentiment worth sharing. After relocating to the New York headquarters of the UN, he became disheartened, remarking: “If you lock a team of evil geniuses in a laboratory, they could not design a bureaucracy so maddeningly complex, requiring so much effort but in the end incapable of delivering the intended result. The system is a black hole into which disappear countless tax dollars and human aspirations, never to be seen again.”

We believe this is the sentiment that gold investors feel when they see central banks resort to more radical monetary policies in an attempt to spur economies bogged down by taxes, regulations, and bureaucracy. Moreover, there are social policies that incentivize people not to work and foreign policies that have resulted in chaos. The investment demand evidenced by the strong inflows into the bullion ETPs this year suggests that many investors are making a strategic investment in gold to diversify and prepare their portfolios for the uncertainty of a financial system that may become increasingly dysfunctional.

by Joe Foster, Portfolio Manager and Strategist
With more than 30 years of gold industry experience, Foster began his gold career as a boots on the ground geologist, evaluating mining exploration and development projects. Foster is Portfolio Manager and Strategist for the Gold and Precious Metals strategy.

Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time.

Important Information For Foreign Investors

This document does not constitute an offering or invitation to invest or acquire financial instruments. The use of this material is for general information purposes.

Please note that Van Eck Securities Corporation offers actively managed and passively managed investment products that invest in the asset class(es) included in this material. Gold investments can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. Gold equities may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry, and are subject to interest rate risk and market risk. Investments in foreign securities involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, including the takeover of property without adequate compensation or imposition of prohibitive taxation.

Please note that Joe Foster is the Portfolio Manager of an actively managed gold strategy.

Any indices listed are unmanaged indices and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in the Fund. An index’s performance is not illustrative of the Fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.

1U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) indicates the general international value of the U.S. dollar. The DXY does this by averaging the exchange rates between the U.S. dollar and six major world currencies: Euro, Japanese yen, Pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish kroner, and Swiss franc. 2NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) is a modified market capitalization-weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold. 3MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) is a rules-based, modified market capitalization-weighted, float-adjusted index comprised of a global universe of publicly traded small- and medium-capitalization companies that generate at least 50% of their revenues from gold and/or silver mining, hold real property that has the potential to produce at least 50% of the company’s revenue from gold or silver mining when developed, or primarily invest in gold or silver. 4Fannie Mae (Federal National Mortgage Association); Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation)

Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time. Not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Historical performance is not indicative of future results; current data may differ from data quoted. Current market conditions may not continue. Non-VanEck proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck. ©2016 VanEck.

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6PSE ETF ger exponering mot amerikanska aktier

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Invesco MSCI USA UCITS ETF Dist (6PSE ETF) med ISIN IE00BK5LYT47, försöker följa MSCI USA-index. MSCI USA-index spårar de ledande aktierna på den amerikanska marknaden.

Invesco MSCI USA UCITS ETF Dist (6PSE ETF) med ISIN IE00BK5LYT47, försöker följa MSCI USA-index. MSCI USA-index spårar de ledande aktierna på den amerikanska marknaden.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,05 % p.a. Invesco MSCI USA UCITS ETF Dist är den billigaste ETF som följer MSCI USA-index. ETFen replikerar resultatet för det underliggande indexet syntetiskt med en swap. Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (kvartalsvis).

Invesco MSCI USA UCITS ETF Dist är en liten ETF med tillgångar på 27 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 11 november 2019 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Produktbeskrivning

Invesco MSCI USA UCITS ETF Dist syftar till att tillhandahålla den totala nettoavkastningen för MSCI USA Index (”Referensindex”), minus avgifternas inverkan. Fonden delar ut utdelning på kvartalsbasis.

Referensindexet är utformat för att mäta aktiemarknadens resultat i USA. Den fångar representation för stora och medelstora företag på den amerikanska marknaden och täcker cirka 85 % av det friflyttade marknadsvärdet i USA.

Fonden strävar efter att uppnå sitt mål genom att hålla en korg med aktier, som vanligtvis levererar det mesta av fondens avkastning men som vanligtvis inte skulle vara densamma som i referensindexet. Fonden kommer också att använda ofinansierade swappar, som är kontrakt där en eller flera godkända motparter samtycker till att utbyta med fonden eventuella skillnader mellan avkastningen på indexet och korgen med aktier. Syftet är att uppnå en närmare och mer konsekvent prestation i förhållande till index än vad som generellt skulle vara möjligt genom enbart fysisk replikering.

Medan fondens investeringsmål är att replikera nettototalavkastningsindexet, refererar de swappar som ingåtts av fonden till bruttototalavkastningsindexet. Swapavgiften som betalas av fonden är i förhållande till detta bruttototalavkastningsindex och som ett resultat av detta kommer ETF:ens prestanda sannolikt att överstiga avkastningen för nettoavkastningsindexet.

För att hjälpa till med att täcka en del av fondens kostnader kan förvaltaren få ett årligt avgiftsbidrag på upp till 0,04 % av det nominella swapbeloppet från swapmotparterna som är aktiva i denna fond. Detta avgiftsbidrag har ingen inverkan på fondens nettotillgångsvärde och representerar inte en inkrementell kostnad som bärs av investerare.

Denna ETF hanteras passivt.

En investering i denna fond är ett förvärv av andelar i en passivt förvaltad indexföljande fond snarare än i de underliggande tillgångarna som ägs av fonden.

Handla 6PSE ETF

Invesco MSCI USA UCITS ETF Dist (6PSE ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEUR6PSE
Borsa ItalianaEURMXUD
London Stock ExchangeUSDMXUD
SIX Swiss ExchangeUSDMXUD
SIX Swiss ExchangeEURMXUD
XETRAEUR6PSE

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MICROSOFT ORD594918104US59491810456.54%
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NVIDIA ORD67066G104US67066G10405.66%
AMAZON COM ORD023135106US02313510673.62%
META PLATFORMS CL A ORD30303M102US30303M10272.28%
ALPHABET CL A ORD02079K305US02079K30592.23%
ALPHABET CL C ORD02079K107US02079K10791.96%
ELI LILLY ORD532457108US53245710831.40%
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JPMORGAN CHASE ORD46625H100US46625H10051.25%

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iShares noterar fond för flyg- och försvarssektorn på Xetra

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iShares Global Aerospace & Defence UCITS ETF investerar i aktier i företag från utvecklade marknader som tillhör flyg- och försvarssektorn. Åtagandet inkluderar tillverkare av civil eller militär flyg- och försvarsutrustning, relaterade reservdelar eller produkter, försvarselektronik och rymdutrustning.

iShares Global Aerospace & Defence UCITS ETF investerar i aktier i företag från utvecklade marknader som tillhör flyg- och försvarssektorn. Åtagandet inkluderar tillverkare av civil eller militär flyg- och försvarsutrustning, relaterade reservdelar eller produkter, försvarselektronik och rymdutrustning.

Sedan tidigare är denna börshandlade fond noterad på Euronext Amsterdam.

NamnISIN
Ticker
AvgiftUtdelnings-
policy
iShares Global Aerospace & Defence UCITS ETF USD (Acc)IE000U9ODG19
5J50 (EUR)
0,35%Ackumulerande

Produktutbudet inom Deutsche Börses ETF- och ETP-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 408 ETFer, 199 ETCer och 256 ETNer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på cirka 23 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer och ETPer i Europa.

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8RMY ETF köper bara aktier i europeiska försvarsföretag

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HANetf Future of European Defence UCITS ETF Accumulating (8RMY ETF) med ISIN IE000I7E6HL0 försöker att följa VettaFi Future of Defence Ex US-indexet. VettaFi Future of Defence Ex US-indexet följer resultatet för företag som är verksamma inom militär- eller försvarsindustrin. Amerikanska företag är exkluderade. Vikten av europeiska företag i indexet är minst 90 procent.

HANetf Future of European Defence UCITS ETF Accumulating (8RMY ETF) med ISIN IE000I7E6HL0 försöker att följa VettaFi Future of Defence Ex US-indexet. VettaFi Future of Defence Ex US-indexet följer resultatet för företag som är verksamma inom militär- eller försvarsindustrin. Amerikanska företag är exkluderade. Vikten av europeiska företag i indexet är minst 90 procent.

De börshandlade fondens TER (total expense ratio) uppgår till 0,39 % per år. HANetf Future of European Defence UCITS ETF Accumulating är den enda ETFen som följer VettaFi Future of Defence Ex US-indexet. ETFen replikerar resultatet för det underliggande indexet genom fullständig replikering (genom att köpa alla indexkomponenter). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Denna ETF lanserades den 7 april 2025 och har sitt säte i Irland.

Future of European Defence UCITS ETF

En europeisk försvars-ETF, från ett europeiskt företag, utan exponering mot USA.

Europa åtar sig att göra stora försvarsinvesteringar: Efter årtionden av underutnyttjande återupprustar Europa äntligen. EU har lagt fram en försvarsplan på 800 miljarder euro, medan enskilda europeiska NATO-medlemmar snabbt ökar sina egna militära budgetar.

Strategisk autonomi innebär att köpa europeiskt: Europas upprustning handlar inte bara om att spendera mer – det handlar om att bygga försvarsoberoende. För att minska beroendet av amerikansk utrustning prioriterar EU europeiskt tillverkade vapen, fordon och system, vilket ger den europeiska försvarssektorn en stark medvind.

Europeisk försvars-ETF från ett europeiskt företag

Detta är den första europeiska försvars-ETF som lanserats av ett europeiskt företag – och stöds av teamet bakom den snabbt växande NATO-ETFen.

Europeisk försvars-ETFens mål

Future for European Defence UCITS ETF (8RMY) syftar till att ge exponering mot NATO och NATO+-allierades försvars- och cyberförsvarsutgifter, exklusive USA.

Med ökande hot och amerikanskt stöd som inte längre garanteras, ser europeiska NATO-medlemmar över sina försvarsstrategier och ökar kraftigt militära utgifter. Efter ett decennium av att inte ha uppnått 2 % av BNP-målet har Europa tillsammans underutnyttjat med uppskattningsvis 850 miljarder euro. För att återuppbygga och modernisera sina väpnade styrkor riktar regeringarna nu denna förnyade investering mot europeiska försvarsföretag – vilket stärker kontinentens strategiska självförsörjning.

European Defence ETF följer VettaFi Future of Defence Ex US Index, som är utformat för att fånga upp europeiska företag vars majoritet av sina intäkter kommer från militära utgifter.

Handla 8RMY ETF

HANetf Future of European Defence UCITS ETF Accumulating (8RMY ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange. Av den anledningen förekommer olika kortnamn på samma börshandlade fond.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  NordnetSAVRDEGIRO och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
Euronext ParisEURARMY
gettexEUR8RMY
Borsa ItalianaEURARMI
London Stock ExchangeGBXNAVY
London Stock ExchangeUSDARMY
XETRAEUR8RMY

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RHEINMETALL AG COMMON14,81%
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BAE SYSTEMS PLC9,86%
SAAB AB COMMON STOCK SEK7,78%
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KONGSBERG GRUPPEN ASA6,27%
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS PLC4,37%
AIRBUS SE COMMON STOCK3,27%
DASSAULT AVIATION SA2,86%

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