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Global Recovery to Drive Cyclical Assets

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Global Recovery to Drive Cyclical Assets

DIVERGING GROWTH TRENDS AND MONETARY POLICIES CREATE OPPORTUNITIES Global Recovery to Drive Cyclical Assets

Cyclical assets will give the best investment opportunities in 2015 on the back of the increasing momentum of the global economic recovery. While the recovery will be led by the US and emerging Asia, it will be gradual and not likely to be a straight line. Numerous risks remain, particularly the growth and deflation threats for the Eurozone and Japan, alongside the fading economic momentum in the UK economy. Accordingly, those commodities and currencies poised to benefit from US and Chinese growth are likely to be the main beneficiaries in 2015. Our favoured assets are cyclical commodities like industrial metals and energy and the US Dollar.

Continued economic growth to support cyclical commodities demand

Cyclical commodities are likely to be the main beneficiaries of continued economic growth in US and China in 2015. With China continuing to stimulate its economy and budgeting for more commodity-intensive infrastructure spending we believe the outlook for cyclical commodities looks strong. Local governments in China were reluctant to make large spending decisions in 2014 because of the central government’s clampdown on the use of third-party funding vehicles. Now that local governments are able to borrow under their own name, we believe commodity-intensive infrastructure spending will accelerate in 2015. Commodity performance has lagged traditional economic activity indicators like the US leading index amongst others, and we expect this to mean revert.

ETFS Outlook1

Supply likely to become constrained if price weakness persists

With so many commodities trading at or below their marginal cost of production, we believe that unless we see price increases, production will be cut. While in the short-term companies and mines can continue to produce even if prices are trading below marginal costs, it is not sustainable in the long-term. Unprofitable operations will have to be shut down or downsized, reducing production to contain costs. In turn, tighter supply will drive better price performance. We expect the recent correction in commodity prices to be transitory and believe commodities are attractively valued at current levels. Most of the factors that have hit commodity prices over the past months are temporary, and we believe the price correction creates tremendous opportunities for medium to long-term investors.

ETFS Outlook2

Geopolitical risk – a double-edged sword

While the geopolitical environment remains tense in a number of regions, and likely to weigh on the economic outlook, it is likely to be a supportive influence for a number of commodities. Demand for defensive assets like gold, primarily as a portfolio hedge will likely remain resilient, especially with the price of this hedge so close to the marginal cost of production. In our central scenario, we don’t expect geopolitical risk to significantly interfere with continued economic growth and the demand for cyclical assets. At the same time, geopolitical risks could cause supply disruptions across a number of commodities.

Supply disruptions key for industrial metals

While supply remains abundant across most commodity sectors, contributing to price weakness, we feel that the most aggressive supply forecasts have been priced in. Supply shocks have played a central role in the metal space this year, with South Africa suffering a 5-month long strike and Indonesia introducing an ore export ban. Significant production is located in emerging markets, which makes supply consistency an ongoing uncertainty.

ETFS Outlook3

Industrial metal and precious metal markets should also benefit from continued growth in Chinese demand (we feel that the negativity over a Chinese slowdown is overdone), and supply not achieving growth expectations of the market. Supply disruptions are quite common in the commodity space and they are likely to continue to be a key driver of prices in 2015. As noted above, a worsening geopolitical outlook could also moderate some of the supply expectations for commodities, particularly in the energy and metals sectors, helping lift prices in 2015. The recent price weakness reflects transitory investor capitulation and we believe that a broad range of commodity markets appear attractively priced, particularly those linked to a cyclical upswing.

Modest tightening of oil supply expected

While there appears to be a clear split between Gulf OPEC members and the remaining countries in terms of cutting oil production to sustain oil prices, we expect the OPEC oil cartel will eventually commit to cutting back on oil production.

With the majority of OPEC countries estimated to require oil prices of above US$90-US$100/barrel to balance their government budgets, it is a matter of time before OPEC start to reduce supply and that could happen as early as November 27, when OPEC holds its next meeting. While US production is abundant, with oil production at multi-decade highs there is little potential for US crude exports in the near-term, capping the negative impact the over-supply in the US has on global prices.

ETFS Outlook4

Agricultural outlook remains varied and tied to weather

The fortunes of the agricultural sector are clearly significantly tied to weather. With an El Niño weather event forecast for the Northern Hemisphere winter, we could see further gains in coffee, sugar, wheat and a decline in soybean prices. Hot, dry weather in the major producing areas of Brazil, Australia and Asia typically hurts coffee, sugar and wheat growing, while soybean growing typically prospers under wetter conditions in parts of South America. Other weather-related disruptions could also cause sizable price movements in corn in 2015 given that perfect growing conditions have been priced in to this years crop.

ETFS Outlook5

Gold likely to sustain modest gains

The outlook for the gold price is especially uncertain. Ordinarily, a positive economic environment, in which some major central banks will likely raise interest rates, will be a gold negative scenario. However, there are a number of events which could drive a surprise increase in the price. The potential passage of the Swiss gold referendum at the end of the month was once thought of as a tail-risk. However, with polls indicating 38% of the Swiss population in favour of the central bank holding 20% of its assets in gold, that risk is rising. Should the proposal pass, the central bank would need to increase its current holdings of gold from 8% to 20% over a span of 5 years, which would lend support to the gold market. We believe the expansionary monetary policy of the ECB and BOJ to also prompt demand for gold from investors in these regions as low or negative deposit rates increase the appeal of holding gold. The accompanying weakening of the euro and yen will also boost returns of foreign investors holding dollar denominated assets. In general, we expect gold to end 2015 in the range of US$1250-1300/oz, as long as US interest rate rises are modest and gradual.

Central banks’ action key for currencies in 2015

The global interest rate cycle is turning. Interest rates in many developed economies have been hovering near their lowest levels in recorded history for nearly six years. In our view, as economic momentum gathers pace, interest rate settings will be adjusted higher toward historically normal levels.

ETFS Outlook6

While the global economic recovery is taking hold to varying degrees across the world, there has been a divergent trend in developed economies. These differences mean central bank policies will also diverge, providing opportunities for currency investors and investors exposed to assets that are not priced in their home currency. We believe continued improvements in the US economy will see the Fed being the first central bank to raise interest rates in 2015 toward historically more normal levels. The flattening of the US Treasury curve is likely to prompt broad-based strength of the US Dollar over the course of 2015. While the UK showed early signs of a robust recovery in 2014, momentum has faded in recent months, with manufacturing activity and household sector spending posting downside surprises. We expect the differential of US over UK bond rates to continue to widen as investors begin to factor in better US growth rates, putting further downward pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate. At the same time, weakening growth has seen Eurozone inflation hovering less than a quarter of the ECB’s ‘below, but close to, 2%’ target for several months.

ETFS Outlook7

As deflationary threats have mounted, the ECB has been aggressive in introducing fresh unconditional policy measures, including negative deposit rates and additional long term funding and asset purchasing initiatives. The new measures, which are aimed at increasing lending and liquidity conditions in the real economy, are likely to remain in place in for the foreseeable future. We expect the aggressive ECB stimulus to continue to weigh on the performance of the Euro, as we do not expect the economic situation to improve markedly over the coming year. With latest data showing that the Japanese economy is in a recession, we anticipate the BOJ adding further stimulus in 2015 (a similar situation to the ECB), keeping the Japanese Yen depressed in 2015.

We expect commodity currencies to perform well in 2015, as one source of weakness (depressed global commodity prices) begins to fade. We feel that as oil prices begin to rebound the Norwegian Krone and the Canadian dollar will appear particularly attractive against funding currencies like the Yen and the Euro. In addition, the Canadian dollar has the benefit of strong economic ties to the strengthening US economy – another source of support for the currency.

US Dollar strength is no threat to commodities. The historically negative correlation between the US Dollar and commodity prices has been a headwind for commodity price, particularly gold, at the margin. We expect this relationship to decouple moving into 2015 as the global economic recovery gains pace. The US Dollar strength in 2014 has been the result of the brightening US economic environment and the increasing potential for the Fed to tighten policy in 2015. We expect this ‘positive’ US Dollar strength to continue but the improving economic backdrop is likely to supportive for underlying commodity demand, especially with Chinese demand also remaining healthy. Accordingly we foresee an environment In 2015 that is beneficial for both the US Dollar and commodity prices.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”).

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Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis

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Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
  • Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
  • Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
  • What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?

Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has amassed a staggering $43 billion in Bitcoin, positioning itself at the forefront of the corporate “reserve race.” Under the leadership of Bitcoin maximalist Michael Saylor, the company now boasts an $84 billion market cap. But with such an aggressive strategy, how sustainable is its approach—and what risks lie ahead? We break it down in today’s analysis.

Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?

A drop below $72,000 could flush longs, while a breakout above $90,000 may squeeze shorts. One key positive indicator is that Bitcoin continues to print higher lows since March 10, which preserves a bullish market structure in our view. Dive into our technical analysis.

What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?

Imagine owning a slice of a skyscraper or a piece of fine art with just a few clicks. Tokenization, the act of converting ownership rights to real-world assets (RWAs) into tradable tokens, has surpassed $10 billion in on-chain value, unlocking global 24/7 access to once-exclusive markets with liquidity, efficiency, and yield. Find out how it works.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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BSE0 ETF köper bara företagsobligationer med förfall 2030

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Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc (BSE0 ETF) med ISIN IE000I25S1V5, försöker följa Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened-index. Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2030) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2030 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc (BSE0 ETF) med ISIN IE000I25S1V5, försöker följa Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened-index. Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2030) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2030 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,10 % p.a. Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc är den billigaste och största ETF som följer Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 6 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 18 juni 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Produktbeskrivning

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF Acc syftar till att ge den totala avkastningen för Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index (”Referensindexet”), minus avgifternas inverkan. Fonden har en fast löptid och kommer att upphöra på Förfallodagen.

Referensindexet är utformat för att återspegla resultatet för EUR-denominerade, investeringsklassade, fast ränta, skattepliktiga skuldebrev emitterade av företagsemittenter. För att vara berättigade till inkludering måste företagsvärdepapper ha minst 300 miljoner euro i nominellt utestående belopp och en effektiv löptid på eller mellan 1 januari 2030 och 31 december 2030.

Värdepapper är uteslutna om emittenter: 1) är inblandade i kontroversiella vapen, handeldvapen, militära kontrakt, oljesand, termiskt kol eller tobak; 2) inte har en kontroversnivå enligt definitionen av Sustainalytics eller har en Sustainalytics-kontroversnivå högre än 4; 3) anses inte följa principerna i FN:s Global Compact; eller 4) kommer från tillväxtmarknader.

Portföljförvaltarna strävar efter att uppnå fondens mål genom att tillämpa en urvalsstrategi, som inkluderar användning av kvantitativ analys, för att välja en andel av värdepapperen från referensindexet som representerar hela indexets egenskaper, med hjälp av faktorer som index- vägd genomsnittlig varaktighet, industrisektorer, landvikter och kreditkvalitet. När en företagsobligation som innehas av fonden når förfallodag kommer kontanterna som fonden tar emot att användas för att investera i kortfristiga EUR-denominerade skulder.

ETFen förvaltas passivt.

En investering i denna fond är ett förvärv av andelar i en passivt förvaltad indexföljande fond snarare än i de underliggande tillgångarna som ägs av fonden.

Förfallodag: andra onsdagen i december 2026 eller sådant annat datum som bestäms av styrelseledamöterna och meddelas aktieägaren

Handla BSE0 ETF

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc (BSE0 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
XETRAEURBSE0

Största innehav

NamnCUSIPISINKupongräntaVikt %
Fresenius SE & Co KGaA 5.125% 05/10/30D2R9K1AL3XS26987136955.1252.55%
Mercedes-Benz Group AG 2.375% 22/05/30D1668RZW0DE000A289XG82.3752.19%
Akzo Nobel NV 1.625% 14/04/30N01803YV6XS21565982811.6252.08%
Eni SpA 0.625% 23/01/30T3666JJV9XS21073154700.6251.98%
Prologis International Funding II 2.375% 14/11/30L7763MAD2XS19046903412.3751.78%
REWE International Finance BV 4.875% 13/09/30N74119AA1XS26798981844.8751.65%
CaixaBank SA 4.25% 06/09/30E2R193R97XS26768144994.2501.64%
Verizon Communications Inc 4.25% 31/10/30XS25508811434.2501.64%
Liberty Mutual Group Inc 4.625% 02/12/30U52932BR7XS25616473684.6251.62%
AXA SA 3.75% 12/10/30F0609NBG2XS25372511703.7501.60%

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US regulatory shift provides a beacon for optimism

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Since President Trump appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chair two months ago, many investigations into crypto businesses have been dropped, as the SEC moves away from regulation by enforcement and works to create a framework for digital assets. As regulations become clearer and news flow turns more positive, crypto prices—which dropped sharply this week—should begin to better reflect the new regulatory landscape in the US.

Since President Trump appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chair two months ago, many investigations into crypto businesses have been dropped, as the SEC moves away from regulation by enforcement and works to create a framework for digital assets. As regulations become clearer and news flow turns more positive, crypto prices—which dropped sharply this week—should begin to better reflect the new regulatory landscape in the US.

We believe this regulatory shift could ultimately help trigger the next leg of the current bull run, as investors better understand the significance of regulatory clarity and seek to acquire bitcoin and altcoins at what we believe are currently very favorable levels.

Market Highlights

SEC Dismisses Crypto Enforcement Actions

The SEC dropped its enforcement actions against crypto-related companies Kraken, Consensys, and Cumberland DRW.

This indicates a shift in SEC’s regulatory approach, favoring clearer guidelines over enforcement actions. Such a pivot could foster a more predictable environment, encouraging innovation within the sector.

Banks to Engage in Crypto Activities

The FDIC has rescinded previous guidelines which prevented financial institutions from engaging with crypto activities without prior sign-off.

By removing bureaucratic hurdles, banks may more readily offer crypto-related services, potentially leading to broader adoption and integration of digital assets.

Bitcoin ETFs Inflow Streak Surpassed $1 Billion

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a 10-day inflow streak exceeding $1 billion marking the longest such streak in 2025.

This underscores growing institutional and retail investor confidence in Bitcoin as an asset class that helps increase market stability and possibly paving the way for the approval of other crypto-based financial products.

Market Metrics

All NCITM constituents had negative performance last week, with XRP (-10.8%) and UNI (-10.7%) seeing the steepest declines. ETH also experienced a sharp drop (-9.1%), contributing to NCITM’s underperformance relative to BTC (-2.9%). The NCITM -4.2% decline reflects a broader risk-off sentiment in the crypto market, as investors reassess their positions amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.

NCITM (-4.2%) extended its underperformance last week, deepening year-to-date losses. Traditional indices like the S&P 500 (-1.5%) and Nasdaq 100 (-2.4%) saw smaller declines. The gap between crypto and other risk assets continues to widen, while gold has emerged as the top performer in 2025, gaining nearly 20% amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. This trend highlights a growing risk-off sentiment, with investors shifting toward defensive assets and away from high-volatility investments.

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