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Global ETF trends to watch in 2025

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Our 2024 predictions were fairly on point as the year saw macro and geopolitical volatility persist, with developed and select emerging markets benefiting from the year of artificial intelligence (AI) awareness.

Our 2024 predictions were fairly on point as the year saw macro and geopolitical volatility persist, with developed and select emerging markets benefiting from the year of artificial intelligence (AI) awareness.

My general sense is that 2025 may similarly feel like a transitional one, with a continuation of monetary policy easing in developed markets and the investment spotlight still shining on themes like AI, its supply chain, ecosystem and infrastructure. Of course, some residual US political uncertainty and continued geopolitical tensions remain ever-present to add some spice and volatility.

2025 ETF predictions

US and developed market equity ETFs will see an increase in assets under management (AUM).

This time last year, we were staring down the barrel of slowing global inflation and interest-rate cuts framed against a backdrop of weakening jobs data, suggesting a potentially hard landing for the US economy. While inflation has remained sticky through most of this year, labour markets have been increasingly resilient, suggesting the hard-landing narrative be cast aside (for now—more on this later).

Considering the entirety of 2024, the S&P 500 Index could very well end the year having seen more than 50 all-time highs reached throughout.1 The so-called “AI bull” of 2024 is showing telltale signs of chasing the red cape into 2025, with global mega-cap tech firms at the forefront and now broadening the investment case out to infrastructure growth to support the AI ecosystem.

Aside from those within the AI supply chain, multinational corporations that can either develop in-house solutions or effectively implement external tools should be able to benefit from productivity gains and reap the rewards of additional cash flow. This, together with continued developed market monetary policy easing, suggests investors may be wise to take the bull by the horns in 2025 and gain broad global exposure to this transformative developed market trend.

Single-country emerging market ETFs will outperform a broader allocation

Republicans and Donald Trump have scored victory in the US presidential race, resolving some of the uncertainty heading into 2025. Trump’s second term in office could lead to significant potential economic and market impacts, given the high tariff agenda of the Republican party. The agenda could heavily influence industry, most notably for the United States and China. Major name brands have pulled back in the region and continue to divert a considerable amount of production supply away from China and instead toward India, which doesn’t help China’s economy in the face of domestic demand debility.

President Xi Jingping’s most recent stimulus package came in response to China’s early year woes and cries for fiscal help, turning the tide in Chinese markets, which kicked off a healthy rally before the country’s equity markets subsequently suffered their worst fall in 27 years.2 One thing we believe is certain in 2025 is that the waters will continue to be choppy in the Far East. Therefore, we continue to be bullish on tech-heavy emerging market economies such as South Korea, Taiwan and, depending on any further bumper stimulus, China.

Additionally, our stance on India remains the same as last year, with the country and leadership focused on supportive government policies which include infrastructure development and free trade agreements. India’s narrative is shifting from “Is India the new China?” to “India is the new India!” Further growth is anticipated, owing to the country’s focus on technology and digitization coupled with its favorable demographics, growing middle class and healthy domestic consumption.

US and EU investment-grade corporate bond ETFs should be an AUM winner

Clearly, the economic “landing” story has been more drawn out than the data suggested when I made my ETF predications last year. However, conditions remain consistent: Inflation is falling, and most central banks are cutting interest rates. Nonetheless, the addition of another year of relative economic stability marked by low corporate defaults and circumstances indicative of optimistic company earnings, are helping the US economy potentially achieve a “soft landing” (A soft landing describes an economy slowing, allowing inflation to fall, without tipping into a recession). Historically a soft landing combined with continued easing has been a positive driver for both equity and bond markets. Against this backdrop, we maintain a more hands on approach to navigating fixed income and believe actively managed quality fixed income from both the US and eurozone (US and euro IG) will likely outperform over the coming 12 months.

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Investerare tar ut pengar från ESG-fonder

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Investerare tar ut pengar från ESG-fonder i rekordfart: amerikanska miljö-, social- och styrelsefonder (ESG) redovisade rekordstora utflöden på 20 miljarder dollar 2024.

Investerare tar ut pengar från ESG-fonder i rekordfart: amerikanska miljö-, social- och styrelsefonder (ESG) redovisade rekordstora utflöden på 20 miljarder dollar 2024.

Detta kommer efter ett utflöde på 18 miljarder dollar 2023 och bara 3 miljarder dollar i inflöden 2022.

Dessutom har rekordmånga fonder tagit bort ESG och relaterade fraser från sina namn förra året.

Sedan januari 2022 har S&P Global Clean Energy Index sjunkit 46 %.

ESG-teman är underpresterande.

Källa: Bloomberg, The Kobeissi Letter

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BS30 ETF ger exponering mot amerikanska företagsobligationer med förfall 2030

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Invesco BulletShares 2030 USD Corporate Bond UCITS ETF Dist (BS30 ETF) med ISIN IE000GB2EQ90strävar efter att spåra Bloomberg 2030 Maturity USD Corporate Bond Screened index. Bloomberg 2030 Maturity USD Corporate Bond Screened-index spårar företagsobligationer denominerade i amerikanska dollar. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2030) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2030 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Invesco BulletShares 2030 USD Corporate Bond UCITS ETF Dist (BS30 ETF) med ISIN IE000GB2EQ90strävar efter att spåra Bloomberg 2030 Maturity USD Corporate Bond Screened index. Bloomberg 2030 Maturity USD Corporate Bond Screened-index spårar företagsobligationer denominerade i amerikanska dollar. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2030) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2030 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,10 %. Invesco BulletShares 2030 USD Corporate Bond UCITS ETF Dist är den billigaste ETF som följer Bloomberg 2030 Maturity USD Corporate Bond Screened index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (kvartalsvis).

Invesco BulletShares 2030 USD Corporate Bond UCITS ETF Dist är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 2 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 21 maj 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Produktbeskrivning

Invesco BulletShares 2030 USD Corporate Bond UCITS ETF Dist syftar till att tillhandahålla den totala avkastningen för Bloomberg 2030 Maturity USD Corporate Bond Screened Index (”Referensindexet”), minus avgifternas inverkan. Fonden har en fast löptid och kommer att upphöra på Förfallodagen. Fonden delar ut intäkter på kvartalsbasis.

Referensindexet är utformat för att återspegla utvecklingen för USD-denominerade, investeringsklassade, fast ränta, skattepliktiga skuldförbindelser utgivna av företagsemittenter. Den är marknadsvärdevägd med ett tak på 4,5 % för enskilda företagsemittenter. För att vara kvalificerade för inkludering måste företagsvärdepapper ha minst 300 miljoner USD i nominellt utestående belopp och en effektiv löptid på eller mellan 1 januari 2030 och 31 december 2030.

Värdepapper är uteslutna om emittenter: 1) är inblandade i kontroversiella vapen, handeldvapen, militära kontrakt, oljesand, termiskt kol eller tobak; 2) inte har en kontroversnivå enligt definitionen av Sustainalytics eller har en Sustainalytics-kontroversnivå högre än 4; 3) anses inte följa principerna i FN:s Global Compact; eller 4) kommer från tillväxtmarknader.

Portföljförvaltarna strävar efter att uppnå fondens mål genom att tillämpa en urvalsstrategi, som inkluderar användning av kvantitativ analys, för att välja en andel av värdepapperen från referensindexet som representerar hela indexets egenskaper, med hjälp av faktorer som index- vägd genomsnittlig löptid, branschsektorer och kreditkvalitet. När en företagsobligation som innehas av fonden når förfall, kommer kontanterna som fonden tar emot att användas för att investera i kortfristiga USD-denominerade skulder utgivna av det amerikanska finansdepartementet.

ETFen förvaltas passivt.

En investering i denna fond är ett förvärv av andelar i en passivt förvaltad indexföljande fond snarare än i de underliggande tillgångarna som ägs av fonden.

Förfallodag”: den andra onsdagen i december 2030 eller sådant annat datum som bestäms av styrelseledamöterna och meddelas aktieägarna.

Handla BS30 ETF

Invesco BulletShares 2030 USD Corporate Bond UCITS ETF Dist (BS30 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, SAVR och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
Borsa ItalianaEURBS30
London Stock ExchangeGBXBX30
London Stock ExchangeUSDBS30
SIX Swiss ExchangeCHFBS30
XETRAEURBS30

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Is ether undervalued?

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In our 2025 Crypto Investment Outlook, we emphasized the importance of applications in driving blockchain adoption and increasing demand for native tokens. With that in mind, it caught our attention that by January 2025—well past the US election predictions of November 2024—Polymarket had expanded into sports-related prediction markets, reaching 450,000 monthly active traders.

In our 2025 Crypto Investment Outlook, we emphasized the importance of applications in driving blockchain adoption and increasing demand for native tokens. With that in mind, it caught our attention that by January 2025—well past the US election predictions of November 2024—Polymarket had expanded into sports-related prediction markets, reaching 450,000 monthly active traders.

Ethereum’s success depends on the rise of useful applications that drive demand for its infrastructure, which is why the recent growth of platforms like Polymarket should strengthen ETH’s investment thesis, even as it underperforms Bitcoin and competitors like Solana. Time will tell, but we believe investors are currently underestimating ETH’s value, especially given the success of Polymarket, stablecoins, and other platforms dependent on Ethereum.

Market Highlights

Polymarket’s new milestone

Polymarket reached 450,000 monthly active traders, as the platform has diversified it betting pools into sports-related prediction markets.

With a substantial trading volume of $1.6 billion in January alone, we may be witnessing the birth of a key user-driven application.

This milestone connects to our Crypto Investment Outlook for 2025, in which we explained that user-driven applications are key to adoption.

Bitcoin reserve on US agenda

Trump’s “crypto czar” David Sacks stated that a bitcoin reserve is a priority, though it’s still in early stages.

The White House plans to establish formal communication with the crypto industry, with an official announcement expected in the future.

Republican lawmakers are forming a bipartisan working group to draft crypto regulations, supporting Trump’s broader digital asset policies.

Trading volume record on ETH ETFs

US Spot ETH ETFs witnessed record trading volumes of $1.5 billion amid Trump tariff turmoil.

This record volume, aligned with a positive $420M net inflow, supports the growing interest and importance of regulated crypto products.

Market Metrics

This week was underwhelming for the NCITM (-3.4%), following Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on steel and aluminum. Despite these challenges, US crypto-regulated products demonstrated resilience, recording a net inflow of $624 million. The confirmation of a BTC reserve being a top priority for the new administration, signals a great tailwind for the future of digital assets.


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