Nyheter

Global Economic Recovery, Political Risk and Commodities

Publicerad

8 år sedan

den

27 maj, 2017

Global Economic Recovery, Political Risk and Commodities by Didier Saint-Georges, Managing Director and Member of the Investment Committee, Carmignac

A global economic recovery is underway. Growth has picked up across global markets for about a year, although during that same period markets have also had to contend with bouts of short-term volatility, with political risk driving much of that volatility. The Macron victory in the French presidential election, who campaigned on a pro-European platform, should now drastically diminish political risk on that continent and allow investors to focus on its economic fundamentals instead. As political risk dissipates, eyes are now also on central banks in the US and in Europe and on what they will do to navigate their economies through the different cycles of the recovery. Deflation is no longer the most potent threat facing the global economy. Instead, inflation is likely to take center stage and keep policymakers on their toes in the near future.

The cycle should become more than ever the key feature to assess. Financial markets are currently experiencing a synchronized growth, favourable for risky assets. Europe and EM are reaping the benefits of an economic upturn with a delay, whereas the US economy is more exposed to the risk of a deceleration in growth momentum, partly induced by political noise.

Emerging markets, which are export-dominant economies, are best positioned to keep benefiting from a recovery in the global economy. Their economic fundamentals, too, are improving for emerging markets, making them an appealing investment destination. In addition, corporate earnings have historically moved in lockstep with international trade, so it is reasonable to expect a growth in corporate earnings as international trade continues to increase.

In Latin America, where many structural economic changes are underway in countries like Brazil, Argentina and Colombia, and after a lackluster growth trend during recent periods, the conditions are set to take advantage of this global positive cycle. However, investors have to keep several risks in mind. One of the risks could come from Trump administration’s protectionist agenda that could still directly impact economies like Mexico, which are highly dependent on US trade. Another risk could come from China, which has been a major source of foreign direct investment for Latin American countries like Peru. Indeed, the ongoing pressure of capital outflows, coupled with its rising debt to GDP ratio point to an unsteady growth basis for China. This is a threat to Latin American countries that must not be ignored.

On the commodity front, it has been a volatile start of the year. Short term oil price tends to be a function of market expectations, news flow, and variation in inventories. Over the short term, there is a strong case for oil prices rising through the next few months as US inventories draw down, OPEC discipline is maintained, and global demand continues to grow at a solid pace. However, over the longer term, the risk of US shale producers to start producing and exporting more, based on increasing capacity, could create a lingering risk of a disruption to the demand- supply balance.

Besides our positive short term view on oil, we are also positive on the near term outlook for mining and materials names, as long as the momentum in Chinese infrastructure spending continues. We favor base metals miners, while we also see some meaningful upside coming from metallurgical coal production for export to China, given the Chinese restriction on coal mining activity and environmental focus which looks set to provide a continuing boost for the seaborne coal market. In the long term, Chinese excess credit creation remains a risk, but for the time being, we do not see the credit impulse running into the ground.

Liknande ämnen:Carmignac

Nästa

China A-shares, Short term headwinds, but positives in the medium term

Missa inte

Oil prices fall as OPEC has no positive surprise up its sleeve

Fortsätt läsa

Annons

Klicka för att kommentera

Nyheter

Crypto markets drop, Powell hints at fewer cuts, and Ethereum ETFs record inflows

Publicerad

7 timmar sedan

den

23 december, 2024

Redaktionen

The third week of December was rough for crypto prices. The Nasdaq Crypto Index™ (NCI™) fell 9.7%, led by lackluster performance from Bitcoin (-3.2%) Ethereum (-2.3%) and Solana (-6.4%). This negative performance comes after weeks of strong price action in the crypto market, fueled by a series of positive developments. On Wednesday, the Fed lowered rates once again but Chair Powell suggested these cuts may slow.

Bitcoin ETFs experience strong selling spree after positive streak of days

US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a record $680 million in net outflows on Thursday, ending a 15-day streak of positive flows totaling $6.7 billion. This could indicate potential profit-taking by investors, given Bitcoin’s impressive 119% appreciation since the start of the year. If we are indeed at the beginning of a bull market, corrections during this cycle are expected to be nominally larger, as BTC, currently valued at around $100,000, has the potential for further appreciation throughout this cycle.

Ether ETFs record inflows in December

ETH ETFs attracted $1.66 billion in new investments this December, accounting for 74% of their $2.24 billion total inflows since inception and reflecting growing institutional interest beyond Bitcoin. The strong inflow-to-market cap ratio signals rising confidence in Ethereum, potentially paving the way for a broader range of regulated crypto products to gain prominence.

From Hashdex: With the year’s end approaching, we would like to invite our readers to explore our Outlook 2025, as it offers key insights to help investors confidently navigate the crypto market in this upcoming year.

Fortsätt läsa

Nyheter

X026 ETF satsar på småbolag i Europa som förändrar klimatet

Publicerad

9 timmar sedan

den

23 december, 2024

Redaktionen

Amundi MSCI Europe Small Cap ESG Climate Net Zero Ambition CTB UCITS ETF Dist (X026 ETF) med ISIN LU2572257470, försöker spåra MSCI Europe Small Cap ESG Broad CTB Select-index. MSCI Europe Small Cap ESG Broad CTB Select-index följer europeiska småbolagsaktier. Värdepapper väljs och viktas enligt hållbarhetskriterier och EU:s direktiv om klimatskydd. Moderindexet är MSCI Europe Small Cap.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,35 % p.a. Amundi MSCI Europe Small Cap ESG Climate Net Zero Ambition CTB UCITS ETF Dist är den största ETF som följer MSCI Europe Small Cap ESG Broad CTB Select-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Årligen).

Amundi MSCI Europe Small Cap ESG Climate Net Zero Ambition CTB UCITS ETF Dist är en liten ETF med tillgångar på 91 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 10 mars 2023 och har sin hemvist i Luxemburg.

Investeringsmål

Amundi MSCI Europe Small Cap ESG Climate Net Zero Ambition CTB UCITS ETF Dist försöker replikera, så nära som möjligt, prestanda för MSCI Europe Small Cap ESG Broad CTB Select Index. Delfondens mål är att uppnå en tracking error-nivå för delfonden och dess index som normalt inte kommer att överstiga 1 %. Denna ETF har exponering mot småbolagsvärdepapper i utvecklade marknader i Europa.

Handla X026 ETF

Amundi MSCI Europe Small Cap ESG Climate Net Zero Ambition CTB UCITS ETF Dist (X026 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

Börs	Valuta	Kortnamn
gettex	EUR	X026
XETRA	EUR	X026

Största innehav

Denna fond använder sig av fysisk replikering för att spåra det underliggande indexet.

Namn	Valuta	Vikt %	Sektr
INTERMEDIATE CAPITAL GROUP	GBP	1.09 %	Finans
BANCO DE SABADELL SA	EUR	1.08 %	Finans
HOWDEN JOINERY GRP PLC	GBP	0.94 %	Industri
DIPLOMA PLC	GBP	0.94 %	Industri
ROTORK PLC	GBP	0.79 %	Industri
IMI PLC	GBP	0.73 %	Industri
TATE & LYLE PLC	GBP	0.72 %	Dagligvaror
BAWAG GROUP AG	EUR	0.72 %	Finans
GALENICA AG	CHF	0.71 %	Health Care
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP PLC	GBP	0.71 %	Dagligvaror

Innehav kan komma att förändras.

Fortsätt läsa

Nyheter

Valour Pendle SEK spårar Pendle Finance token

Publicerad

10 timmar sedan

den

23 december, 2024

Redaktionen

Valour Pendle (PENDLE) SEK (Valour Pendle SEK) med ISIN CH1108679346, är en börshandlad produkt (ETP) som spårar PENDLE, den ursprungliga symbolen för Pendle Finance-protokollet. Pendle är en decentraliserad finansplattform (DeFi) som gör det möjligt för användare att tokenisera och handla framtida avkastning, vilket ger större kontroll över avkastningshanteringen. Genom att dela upp avkastningsbärande tillgångar i huvud- och avkastningskomponenter tillåter Pendle användare att engagera sig i fasta eller rörliga avkastningsstrategier.

PENDLE-tokenen underlättar deltagande i styrning och stimulerar likviditetsförsörjning inom ekosystemet. Genom sitt innovativa tillvägagångssätt för avkastningstokenisering, förbättrar Pendle flexibiliteten och effektiviteten i DeFi-avkastningsoptimering.

Beskrivning

Valour’s Certificate-produktlinje erbjuder börshandlade produkter som uppfyller kraven, var och en helt säkrad av sina respektive digitala tillgångar. För att säkerställa säker kylförvaring samarbetar Valour med nivå 1-licensierade förvaringsinstitut som Copper. Handlade på reglerade börser och MTFer ger dessa certifikat transparent prissättning och likviditet, vilket stärker investerarnas förtroende för säkra digitala tillgångsinvesteringar. Valours grundprospekt är godkända av Finansinspektionen och uppfyller EUs krav på fullständighet, tydlighet och konsekvens.

Produktinformation

Handla Valour Pendle SEK

Valour Pendle (PENDLE) SEK (Valour Pendle SEK) är en europeisk börshandlad produkt som handlas på bland annat Spotlight Stock Market.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETP genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest, Levler och Avanza.