From 18 to 19 November 2024, Brazil will host the G20 summit in Rio for the first time as the focus of the world’s most important platform for global economic cooperation.
The coalition, which includes the USA, China, India, the E U and, most recently, the African Union, represents the world’s most important economies, which, according to OECD figures, account for around 80 per cent of global gross domestic product, 75 per cent of world trade and two thirds of the world’s population.
Since Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) took up his third uninterrupted term of office at the beginning of 2023, he has spent a lot of time abroad to improve his country’s image in the world. His efforts could pay off. A recent Pew Research survey found that most Brazilian adults are optimistic about their country’s status as an international power.
In addition to the G20, Brazil is also set to host other high-profile events such as the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) and the BRICS summit (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) in 2025, while also seeking membership of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
In the almost three years since Brazil initiated its formal accession process for OECD membership, the country has achieved many milestones on the road to this goal. If successful, Brazil would be in a unique position to influence the increasing geopolitical and economic competition between industrialised and developing countries, as it is the only country to be represented in the BRICS, the G20 and the OECD simultaneously.
As the eighth largest economy in the world and the largest economy in Latin America, Brazil could be a strong link in the global discourse on key issues for the Global South (according to UN Trade and Development, the Global South essentially comprises Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia excluding Israel, Japan and South Korea, and Oceania excluding Australia and New Zealand).
These issues include, above all, the fight against hunger, poverty and inequality, sustainable development and the reform of global governance. If Brazil is able to achieve political and financial commitments to progress on priorities such as digital infrastructure, this could lead not only to an increase in Brazil’s GDP, but also to a narrowing of the economic and urban-rural divide and a reduction in gender inequality. Consider that the introduction of a relatively new instant money transfer platform operated by the central bank, known as Pix, has already promoted financial inclusion and increased access to banking services from around 70 per cent of the population to more than 84 per cent (source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace).
We expect that an OECD seal of approval for Brazil will also encourage global investors seeking the assurance of the Coalition’s high standards for the ease of doing business. A seat at the table would give Brazil a stronger voice in shaping best practices and global frameworks for rapidly evolving technology standards. Brazilian companies specialising in artificial intelligence and financial technology are already among the largest in South America.
As the largest oil producer in Latin America, resource-rich Brazil is a leader in the energy sector, as it is one of the ten largest oil producers in the world (according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Brazil produced 4 per cent of the world’s total oil production at the end of 2023). However, the country’s largest sector is finance, with a weighting of more than 36 per cent according to the MSCI Brazil Index.
Central bank in interest rate hike mode
High government spending continues to be a major problem. In our opinion, any reduction in this spending would give the country’s capital markets cause for optimism. Meanwhile, Brazil is an exception to the global trend of falling interest rates: In September, Brazil’s central bank raised interest rates to curb inflationary pressures. The market expects the Brazilian real to remain stable or appreciate slightly in the near future, partly due to falling US interest rates. We see this as a potential advantage for foreign investors in Brazil.
It is also encouraging to see that progress is being made on Brazil’s long-awaited VAT reform, which could further boost the private sector as efficiency gains from a simpler tax system would favour investment.
Growth in Brazil’s manufacturing and services sectors accelerated in September as output in both sectors increased, indicating strong growth in economic activity. In addition, the Brazilian market is currently trading at valuations that we consider favourable. Improved conditions in Brazil’s manufacturing sector have been driven by a resurgence in production, stronger job creation and a pick-up in sales growth, according to S&P Global. At the end of September, Brazil’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index was surpassed only by India, rising to 53.2 (from 50.4 in August; readings above 50 indicate expansion).
Chart 1: Brazilian Purchasing Managers’ Index
Source: FactSet, Markit Economics
Expectations are also high that Brazil will experience an economic boost in 2027, having won the historic bid to host the FIFA Women’s World Cup – a first not only for Brazil, but for the whole of South America.
Over the near term, we believe investors should stay attuned to the opportunities in Brazil and may find what we consider an attractive entry point into this large and diverse market.
Chart 2: The valuations of Latin American equities look favourable
Attractive valuations compared to industrialised countries, emerging markets and own history
Chart 3: Latin American equities offer high dividends
High dividend yield compared to industrialised countries, emerging markets and own history
From Dina Ting, Head of Global Index Portfolio Management at Franklin Templeton
Ossiam Shiller Barclays CAPE® US Sector Value TR UCITSETF 1C (USD) (EUPC ETF) med ISIN LU1079841513, försöker följa Shiller Barclays CAPE® US Sector Value-index. Shiller Barclays CAPE® US Sector Value Strategy väljer från S&P 500 de fem sektorer med lägst relativ CAPE (cykliskt justerad prisinkomst). Den relativa CAPE-koefficienten utvärderar en sektors relativa kostnadsprestanda baserat på dess nuvarande och långsiktiga historiska priser och avkastning. Sedan beräknar metoden sektorn med lägst prisdynamik över en period av 12 månader, dvs. e. den sektor som presterade sämst under rapportperioden. Var och en av de återstående fyra sektorerna får samma viktning (25 %) och komponenterna i investeringsuniversumet anpassas varje månad.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,65 % p.a. Ossiam Shiller Barclays CAPE® US Sector Value TR UCITSETF 1C (USD) är den billigaste och största ETF som följer Shiller Barclays CAPE® US Sector Value-index. ETFen replikerar resultatet för det underliggande indexet syntetiskt med en swap. Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
Ossiam Shiller Barclays CAPE® US Sector Value TR UCITSETF 1C (USD) är en mycket stor ETF med tillgångar på 2 537 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 22 juni 2015 och har sin hemvist i Luxemburg.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.
Valour Kaspa (KAS) SEK (Valour Kaspa SEK) med ISIN CH1108679379, är en börshandlad produkt (ETP) som spårar KAS, den infödda symbolen för Kaspa blockchain. Genom att använda sitt GhostDAG-protokoll bearbetar Kaspa block parallellt, vilket möjliggör snabb transaktionsavslutning och hög skalbarhet. KAS-tokenen används för transaktionsavgifter och nätverkssäkerhet genom mining. Med sin effektiva och decentraliserade design stöder Kaspa skalbara blockkedjeapplikationer, vilket ger både utvecklare och användare kraft.
Beskrivning
Valour’s Certificate-produktlinje erbjuder börshandlade produkter som uppfyller kraven, var och en helt säkrad av sina respektive digitala tillgångar. För att säkerställa säker kylförvaring samarbetar Valour med nivå 1-licensierade förvaringsinstitut som Copper. Handlade på reglerade börser och MTFer ger dessa certifikat transparent prissättning och likviditet, vilket stärker investerarnas förtroende för säkra digitala tillgångsinvesteringar. Valours grundprospekt är godkända av Finansinspektionen och uppfyller EUs krav på fullständighet, tydlighet och konsekvens.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETP genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest, Levler och Avanza.
The third week of December was rough for crypto prices. The Nasdaq Crypto Index™ (NCI™) fell 9.7%, led by lackluster performance from Bitcoin (-3.2%) Ethereum (-2.3%) and Solana (-6.4%). This negative performance comes after weeks of strong price action in the crypto market, fueled by a series of positive developments. On Wednesday, the Fed lowered rates once again but Chair Powell suggested these cuts may slow.
Bitcoin ETFs experience strong selling spree after positive streak of days
US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a record $680 million in net outflows on Thursday, ending a 15-day streak of positive flows totaling $6.7 billion. This could indicate potential profit-taking by investors, given Bitcoin’s impressive 119% appreciation since the start of the year. If we are indeed at the beginning of a bull market, corrections during this cycle are expected to be nominally larger, as BTC, currently valued at around $100,000, has the potential for further appreciation throughout this cycle.
Ether ETFs record inflows in December
ETH ETFs attracted $1.66 billion in new investments this December, accounting for 74% of their $2.24 billion total inflows since inception and reflecting growing institutional interest beyond Bitcoin. The strong inflow-to-market cap ratio signals rising confidence in Ethereum, potentially paving the way for a broader range of regulated crypto products to gain prominence.
From Hashdex: With the year’s end approaching, we would like to invite our readers to explore our Outlook 2025, as it offers key insights to help investors confidently navigate the crypto market in this upcoming year.