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G20 summit in Rio: Lula enhances Brazil’s international reputation
From 18 to 19 November 2024, Brazil will host the G20 summit in Rio for the first time as the focus of the world’s most important platform for global economic cooperation.
The coalition, which includes the USA, China, India, the E U and, most recently, the African Union, represents the world’s most important economies, which, according to OECD figures, account for around 80 per cent of global gross domestic product, 75 per cent of world trade and two thirds of the world’s population.
Since Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) took up his third uninterrupted term of office at the beginning of 2023, he has spent a lot of time abroad to improve his country’s image in the world. His efforts could pay off. A recent Pew Research survey found that most Brazilian adults are optimistic about their country’s status as an international power.
In addition to the G20, Brazil is also set to host other high-profile events such as the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) and the BRICS summit (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) in 2025, while also seeking membership of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
In the almost three years since Brazil initiated its formal accession process for OECD membership, the country has achieved many milestones on the road to this goal. If successful, Brazil would be in a unique position to influence the increasing geopolitical and economic competition between industrialised and developing countries, as it is the only country to be represented in the BRICS, the G20 and the OECD simultaneously.
As the eighth largest economy in the world and the largest economy in Latin America, Brazil could be a strong link in the global discourse on key issues for the Global South (according to UN Trade and Development, the Global South essentially comprises Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia excluding Israel, Japan and South Korea, and Oceania excluding Australia and New Zealand).
These issues include, above all, the fight against hunger, poverty and inequality, sustainable development and the reform of global governance. If Brazil is able to achieve political and financial commitments to progress on priorities such as digital infrastructure, this could lead not only to an increase in Brazil’s GDP, but also to a narrowing of the economic and urban-rural divide and a reduction in gender inequality. Consider that the introduction of a relatively new instant money transfer platform operated by the central bank, known as Pix, has already promoted financial inclusion and increased access to banking services from around 70 per cent of the population to more than 84 per cent (source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace).
We expect that an OECD seal of approval for Brazil will also encourage global investors seeking the assurance of the Coalition’s high standards for the ease of doing business. A seat at the table would give Brazil a stronger voice in shaping best practices and global frameworks for rapidly evolving technology standards. Brazilian companies specialising in artificial intelligence and financial technology are already among the largest in South America.
As the largest oil producer in Latin America, resource-rich Brazil is a leader in the energy sector, as it is one of the ten largest oil producers in the world (according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Brazil produced 4 per cent of the world’s total oil production at the end of 2023). However, the country’s largest sector is finance, with a weighting of more than 36 per cent according to the MSCI Brazil Index.
Central bank in interest rate hike mode
High government spending continues to be a major problem. In our opinion, any reduction in this spending would give the country’s capital markets cause for optimism. Meanwhile, Brazil is an exception to the global trend of falling interest rates: In September, Brazil’s central bank raised interest rates to curb inflationary pressures. The market expects the Brazilian real to remain stable or appreciate slightly in the near future, partly due to falling US interest rates. We see this as a potential advantage for foreign investors in Brazil.
It is also encouraging to see that progress is being made on Brazil’s long-awaited VAT reform, which could further boost the private sector as efficiency gains from a simpler tax system would favour investment.
Growth in Brazil’s manufacturing and services sectors accelerated in September as output in both sectors increased, indicating strong growth in economic activity. In addition, the Brazilian market is currently trading at valuations that we consider favourable. Improved conditions in Brazil’s manufacturing sector have been driven by a resurgence in production, stronger job creation and a pick-up in sales growth, according to S&P Global. At the end of September, Brazil’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index was surpassed only by India, rising to 53.2 (from 50.4 in August; readings above 50 indicate expansion).
Chart 1: Brazilian Purchasing Managers’ Index
Source: FactSet, Markit Economics
Expectations are also high that Brazil will experience an economic boost in 2027, having won the historic bid to host the FIFA Women’s World Cup – a first not only for Brazil, but for the whole of South America.
Over the near term, we believe investors should stay attuned to the opportunities in Brazil and may find what we consider an attractive entry point into this large and diverse market.
Chart 2: The valuations of Latin American equities look favourable
Attractive valuations compared to industrialised countries, emerging markets and own history
Chart 3: Latin American equities offer high dividends
High dividend yield compared to industrialised countries, emerging markets and own history
From Dina Ting, Head of Global Index Portfolio Management at Franklin Templeton
- Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
- Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
- What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?
Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has amassed a staggering $43 billion in Bitcoin, positioning itself at the forefront of the corporate “reserve race.” Under the leadership of Bitcoin maximalist Michael Saylor, the company now boasts an $84 billion market cap. But with such an aggressive strategy, how sustainable is its approach—and what risks lie ahead? We break it down in today’s analysis.
Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
A drop below $72,000 could flush longs, while a breakout above $90,000 may squeeze shorts. One key positive indicator is that Bitcoin continues to print higher lows since March 10, which preserves a bullish market structure in our view. Dive into our technical analysis.
What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?
Imagine owning a slice of a skyscraper or a piece of fine art with just a few clicks. Tokenization, the act of converting ownership rights to real-world assets (RWAs) into tradable tokens, has surpassed $10 billion in on-chain value, unlocking global 24/7 access to once-exclusive markets with liquidity, efficiency, and yield. Find out how it works.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
Since President Trump appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chair two months ago, many investigations into crypto businesses have been dropped, as the SEC moves away from regulation by enforcement and works to create a framework for digital assets. As regulations become clearer and news flow turns more positive, crypto prices—which dropped sharply this week—should begin to better reflect the new regulatory landscape in the US.
We believe this regulatory shift could ultimately help trigger the next leg of the current bull run, as investors better understand the significance of regulatory clarity and seek to acquire bitcoin and altcoins at what we believe are currently very favorable levels.
Market Highlights
SEC Dismisses Crypto Enforcement Actions
The SEC dropped its enforcement actions against crypto-related companies Kraken, Consensys, and Cumberland DRW.
This indicates a shift in SEC’s regulatory approach, favoring clearer guidelines over enforcement actions. Such a pivot could foster a more predictable environment, encouraging innovation within the sector.
Banks to Engage in Crypto Activities
The FDIC has rescinded previous guidelines which prevented financial institutions from engaging with crypto activities without prior sign-off.
By removing bureaucratic hurdles, banks may more readily offer crypto-related services, potentially leading to broader adoption and integration of digital assets.
Bitcoin ETFs Inflow Streak Surpassed $1 Billion
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a 10-day inflow streak exceeding $1 billion marking the longest such streak in 2025.
This underscores growing institutional and retail investor confidence in Bitcoin as an asset class that helps increase market stability and possibly paving the way for the approval of other crypto-based financial products.
Market Metrics
All NCITM constituents had negative performance last week, with XRP (-10.8%) and UNI (-10.7%) seeing the steepest declines. ETH also experienced a sharp drop (-9.1%), contributing to NCITM’s underperformance relative to BTC (-2.9%). The NCITM -4.2% decline reflects a broader risk-off sentiment in the crypto market, as investors reassess their positions amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.
NCITM (-4.2%) extended its underperformance last week, deepening year-to-date losses. Traditional indices like the S&P 500 (-1.5%) and Nasdaq 100 (-2.4%) saw smaller declines. The gap between crypto and other risk assets continues to widen, while gold has emerged as the top performer in 2025, gaining nearly 20% amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. This trend highlights a growing risk-off sentiment, with investors shifting toward defensive assets and away from high-volatility investments.
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