Vanguard REIT ETF (NYSEArca: VNQ), den största av de börshandlade fonder som investerar i den typ av fastighetsbolag som brukar kallas för REITs (Real Estate Investment Trust) har levererat mycket väl under 2016. Det var först nyligen som oron för omvärderingar och en räntehöjning från FED kom att leda till vissa vinsthemtagningar. Det finns emellertid de som tror att fastighetssektorn laddar för ytterligare ett rally.
REITs och de börshandlade fonder som investerar i dessa har snabbt kommit att bli en av de mes populära investeringarna i en lågräntemiljö. Efter årets kraftiga uppgång säger vissa bedömare emellertid att REITs ser dyra ut. Andra bedömare tror att den entusiasm för fastigheter vi såg när fastighetssektorn blev den elfte GICS sektorn i slutet av förra månaden redan var inprisad när det väl ägde rum.
När S & P Dow Jones Index och MSCI meddelade att de skulle skapa en oberoende fastighetssektor, räknade J.P. Morgan med att aktiva aktiefonder var så underviktade mot REITs att skapandet av den nya sektorn skulle leda till inflöden om 100 miljarder dollar. Den nya sektorn är storleksmässigt lika stor som verktyg, telekom och materialsektorerna, vilket gör att underviktade förvaltare inte kan förbise fastighetssektorn.
Är det dags för ytterligare ett rally?
Den stora frågan är om vinsthemtagningarna har skett, och om obligationsräntorna fortsätter uppåt. Barrons skriver att de bedömer att om obligationsräntorna stiger med mellan 10 och 20 bps så kan det leda till att fastighetssektorn faller med mellan fem och åtta procentenheter. Å andra sidan anser Barrons att de investerare som stått vid sidolinjen då kommer att börja köpa fastigheter igen.
Federal Reserves syn på räntor och investerarnas till synes okuvliga önskan om direktavkastning har emellertid gjort fastigheter investmentbolag (REIT) och motsvarande börshandlade fonder till årets mest populära inkomstbringande tillgångsklasser.
De goda nyheterna för ETFer som VNQ och RWR är att räntorna inte kan stiga mycket mer eftersom de amerikanska sysselsättningssiffrorna varit svagare än väntat. Obligationsmarknaderna har prissatt i en räntehöjning i december och den senaste tidens ekonomiska tillväxt motiverar inte en mer aggressiv väg framåt för FED.
Please find below Hashdex monthly crypto market update and performance attribution for Hashdex Crypto-Index ETPs for October 2024.
With October often showing strong seasonality for crypto assets, this month’s results reflect a promising trend for Bitcoin, although gains were more limited across Altcoins. As outlined in our latest CIO note, “Beyond Trump and Harris: Five Congressional Races That May Impact Crypto’s Future”, several upcoming US congressional races could shape the regulatory landscape for crypto, with potential implications for institutional adoption and future price action. Bipartisan support for the asset class is expected to grow, depending on the results of key races.
We will share some updates during the week, if you need any inputs on US elections, feel free to reach out to us.
Hashdex Crypto Index ETPs: performances (USD) as of end of October 24
• Beta Index ETP– Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH or HDX1) (largest Crypto Index ETP in Europe): October +7.1%, YTD +45%, 12M +89%.
• Smart-Beta Index ETP – Crypto Momentum Index ETP(HAMO or HDXM): October -0.5%, YTD +1.2%, 12M +71%.
Market Update – October 24
October, commonly known as ”Uptober” for its seasonally strong performance for Bitcoin, continued this trend in 2024. The month began with a volatile period, as the Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) initially gave back gains from September. All NCI constituents declined in the first ten days, with the exception of Uniswap, which announced plans for its own layer-two network on Ethereum.
Mid-month, the sentiment shifted, with a sharp rally that drove Bitcoin close to its all-time high by the 29th. The NCI ultimately closed the month up 7.1%, significantly outpacing traditional markets as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 declined slightly. This rally coincided with a sharp increase in former president Donald Trump’s odds in election betting markets, generating additional optimism around Bitcoin.
While Bitcoin posted a robust 10.6% gain, Altcoins generally underperformed. The notable positive exception among altcoins was Solana, which rose 9.0%. In contrast, Ripple declined 18.6% due to ongoing SEC litigation, and Polygon’s MATIC dropped over 20% as it migrated to a new token model (POL).
Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) relative to other asset class in October 24
Source: Hashdex, as of 30/10/24.
In comparison with traditional assets, the NCI’s 7.1% gain far outpaced the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, both of which posted slight declines. This performance underscores the potential for crypto assets to provide upside during periods of broader market uncertainty. The majority of this outperformance was driven by Bitcoin’s strength, underscoring its role as a cornerstone of the crypto asset class and its growing appeal as a macroeconomic hedge.
Performance attribution:
Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI)
The NCI recorded positive returns for most of its primary constituents, with Bitcoin (+10.6%) leading the gains. Solana (SOL) also contributed positively, rising 9.0%. However, Ripple (XRP) and Polygon’s MATIC weighed on the index, with losses of 18.6% and over 20%, respectively. Ripple’s decline was largely attributed to ongoing legal issues with the SEC, while MATIC’s transition to the POL token created additional downward pressure.
Source: Hashdex, as of 31/10/24.
Crypto Momentum Factor Index
The Crypto Momentum Factor Index showed a slight monthly decline of 0.5% in October, reflecting the underperformance of altcoins in general. Although Tron (TRX) remained relatively stable, other altcoins in the index faced headwinds, leading to a small monthly loss for the index.
Source: Hashdex, as of 31/10/24.
Correlation (3m) to traditional asset classes
Source: Hashdex, as of 31/10/24. NCI for Nasdaq Crypto Index.
Goldman Sachs Global Green Bond UCITSETF EUR (Dist) (GSGR ETF) med ISIN IE000SYQFJV2strävar efter att spåra Solactive Global Green Bond Select-index. Solactive Global Green Bond Select-index följer gröna obligationer. Alla löptider ingår. Betyg: Investment Grade.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,22 % p.a. Goldman Sachs Global Green Bond UCITSETF EUR (Dist) är den enda ETF som följer Solactive Global Green Bond Select-indexet. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Ränteintäkterna (kuponger) i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (halvårsvis).
Denna ETF lanserades den 13 februari 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Mål
Goldman Sachs Global Green Bond UCITSETF är en passivt förvaltad, hållbar global obligationsfond som uteslutande investerar i gröna obligationer enligt bedömningen av Goldman Sachs Asset Managements investeringsteam för gröna obligationer.
Crypto markets faced a volatile week as key macroeconomic events approached, with the upcoming US presidential election and anticipated Fed rate decision fueling uncertainty in risk assets. Bitcoin (BTC) rose 1.7%, ether (ETH) declined 1%, Solana (SOL) fell 8.2%, and the Nasdaq Crypto IndexTM (NCITM) was down 0.5%.
Microsoft to consider bitcoin investment starting December
According to a new SEC filing, Microsoft is considering the possibility of investing in Bitcoin as a hedge strategy against inflation despite opposition from its Board of Directors. This move, by one of the world’s largest companies, would mark a significant step in institutional adoption for Bitcoin.
MicroStrategy discloses plans to buy $42B of BTC
The firm announced bold plans to raise $42 billion over the next three years to acquire more bitcoin. This new wave of capital will be split equally, with $21 billion from equity issuance and $21 billion from debt offerings, in a project called the ”21/21” plan. This move, led by founder Michael Saylor, underscores bitcoin’s potential as a valuable hedge against inflation and highlights its appeal as a strategic investment option.
UBS launches its first tokenized fund on Ethereum
UBS Asset Management has launched its first tokenized fund, the USD Money Market Investment Fund Token (uMINT), a money market fund built on the Ethereum blockchain, available through authorized partners. The launch supports the growing demand for tokenized financial assets and leverages distributed technology to enhance fund issuance and distribution, as well as UBS’s broader strategy to expand its tokenization services.