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Failure to agree on a production freeze to weigh on oil

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ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis - Failure to agree on a production freeze to weigh on oil Gold ETPs recorded another week of large inflows

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Failure to agree on a production freeze to weigh on oil

  • Gold ETPs recorded another week of large inflows with current price momentum likely to last until the next Fed meeting on April 27.
  • A surge in oil prices ahead of the global oil producers meeting yesterday triggered profit taking last week with prices likely to weaken again as the meeting resulted in a non-agreement.
  • Improving sentiment has seen increased inflows into industrial metals ETPs since March 2016.

Interest in gold to continue until Fed uncertainty is lifted. Last week saw another US$180mn flow into gold ETPs, despite the yellow metal losing some ground, bringing total year-to-date inflows into gold ETPs to US$1.8bn. Strength in demand for the metal is likely to continue until the Fed provides more clarity on what it is looking for to make its next move.

Profit-taking ahead of the oil producers meeting could be followed by inflows again. Energy ETPs recorded US$80mn outflows last week, almost exclusively from oil ETPs. Buoyant oil market activity ahead of the OPEC/non-OPEC oil producers meeting on Sunday sent both Brent and WTI above the US$40/bbl. Prices surged 11.2% and 11.4% respectively over the past week to Thursday triggering profit taking, marking the largest weekly outflows since April 2015. Despite the strong likelihood of Iran absence stopping any potential agreement, investors were still pricing in an agreement to occur. As a result, yesterday’s lack of agreement to freeze output will likely see a sell-off in oil this week. We however believe that a lower for longer oil price should support global economic growth and demand for oil which will translate into the oil market falling into deficit this year, even without a cut in oil supply. Inflows into oil ETPs may return this week as prices weaken.

Interest in commodity basket ETPs increased across the complex. Diversified and sectorial commodity basket ETPs all recorded inflows last week, totalling US$53.5mn. Diversified broad baskets lead the board with net inflows of US$35mn, followed by precious metals baskets (US$9.1mn) and then industrial metals baskets (US$7.2mn). As different commodities tend to be driven by different factors, an exposure to a basket of commodities certainly allows investors to catch the momentum while mitigating the downside risks specific to individual commodities.

Sentiment towards industrial metals improves slowly but surely. Last week saw the largest inflows into industrial metal ETPs since May 2015 of US$29mn, mostly driven by inflows into copper ETPs. The commodity sector has seen continued and increasing inflows since early March 2016 indicating that the momentum is slowly but surely building up. Supporting this trend, short industrial metals ETPs have recorded increasing outflows at the same time. We continue to believe that this year will be a turning point for metals as we expect copper, nickel and zinc to be in deficit this year while demand from China remains robust.

Key events to watch this week. A number of confidence indicators and manufacturing PMIs are likely to be in focus. The Australian and Canadian central banks will publish their meeting minutes while the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision this Thursday is likely to be a non-event unless it publishes technical details of the expanded quantitative easing programme it intends to start in June.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

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Fastställd utdelning i XACT Sverige 2025

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Utdelningsbeloppet i rubricerad börshandlad fond, legalt namn XACT Sverige (UCITS ETF), har fastställts till totalt SEK 25,10 per fondandel. Fastställd utdelning i XACT Sverige 2025.

Utdelningsbeloppet i rubricerad börshandlad fond, legalt namn XACT Sverige (UCITS ETF), har fastställts till totalt SEK 25,10 per fondandel. Fastställd utdelning i XACT Sverige 2025.

De som är registrerade fondandelsägare i fonden på avstämningsdagen erhåller utdelning.

Schema för utdelning i fonden är följande:

9 juni Sista dag att handla fondandelar inklusive rätt till utdelning

10 juni Ex-dag; fondandelarna handlas utan rätt till utdelning

11 juni Avstämningsdag

16 juni Utbetalningsdag

Notera att utdelning i XACT Sverige 2025 sker en gång per år, till skillnad från Xact Norden Högutdelande som delar ut fyra gånger per år.

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Fastställd utdelning i XACT Norden Högutdelande 2025

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Utdelningsbeloppet i rubricerad börshandlad fond, legalt namn XACT Nordic High Dividend Low Volatility (UCITS ETF), har fastställts till totalt SEK 7,48 per fondandel. Fastställd utdelning i XACT Norden Högutdelande 2025.

Utdelningsbeloppet i rubricerad börshandlad fond, legalt namn XACT Nordic High Dividend Low Volatility (UCITS ETF), har fastställts till totalt SEK 7,48 per fondandel. Fastställd utdelning i XACT Norden Högutdelande 2025.

SEK 1,87 delas ut i mars, maj, september och november.

De som är registrerade fondandelsägare i fonden på avstämningsdagen erhåller utdelning.

Schema för utdelning i fonden är följande:

Utdelning 1 – SEK 1,87

10 mars Sista dag att handla fondandelar inklusive rätt till utdelning i XACT Norden Högutdelande 2025 mars

11 mars Ex-dag; fondandelarna handlas utan rätt till utdelning

12 mars Avstämningsdag

17 mars Utbetalningsdag

Utdelning 2 – SEK 1,87

12 maj Sista dag att handla fondandelar inklusive rätt till utdelning i XACT Norden Högutdelande

13 maj Ex-dag; fondandelarna handlas utan rätt till utdelning

14 maj Avstämningsdag

19 maj Utbetalningsdag

Utdelning 3 – SEK 1,87

8 sep Sista dag att handla fondandelar inklusive rätt till utdelning

9 sep Ex-dag; fondandelarna handlas utan rätt till utdelning

10 sep Avstämningsdag

15 sep Utbetalningsdag

Utdelning 4 – SEK 1,87

10 nov Sista dag att handla fondandelar inklusive rätt till utdelning

11 nov Ex-dag; fondandelarna handlas utan rätt till utdelning

12 nov Avstämningsdag

17 nov Utbetalningsdag

Notera att utdelning i XACT Norden Högutdelande 2025 sker fyra gånger per år, till skillnad från Xact Sverige som delar ut en gång per år.

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Crypto’s big week in Washington: Preparing for a crypto-friendly US

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Last week was monumental for Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem, ushering in key regulatory and legislative developments in the US. These changes not only underscore a shifting attitude toward digital assets in the US but also lay the groundwork for greater clarity and legitimacy for crypto globally in the years to come. Following are the five reasons we think last week was such a defining moment for crypto assets and why we think the current environment is setting this asset class up for a remarkable 2025.

Last week was monumental for Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem, ushering in key regulatory and legislative developments in the US. These changes not only underscore a shifting attitude toward digital assets in the US but also lay the groundwork for greater clarity and legitimacy for crypto globally in the years to come. Following are the five reasons we think last week was such a defining moment for crypto assets and why we think the current environment is setting this asset class up for a remarkable 2025.

  1. A paradigm shift at the SEC
  2. One of the most significant signals of change came from US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Acting Chair Mark Uyeda, who announced the establishment of a Crypto Task Force led by Commissioner Hester Peirce, affectionately known as ”Crypto Mom” for her engagement in the digital asset space while at the SEC. The task force, along with the favorable views on digital assets from incoming chair Paul Atkins, reflects an important step toward ending the contentious practice of ”regulation by enforcement,” which has long stymied innovation for crypto entrepreneurs and limited opportunity for US investors.
  3. The SEC’s subsequent decision to rescind Staff Accounting Bulletin (SAB) 121, which imposed restrictive accounting guidelines on banks wishing to custody crypto, further underscores the regulatory shift. Its repeal not only provides operational relief but also signals a more pragmatic approach to crypto oversight.
  4. These regulatory moves reflect a broader recognition by US authorities of the need for a framework that fosters innovation while ensuring investor protection. They set the stage for a future where digital assets are more seamlessly integrated into the financial system.
  5. New congressional leadership

Another pivotal development was the appointment of Senator Cynthia Lummis as chair of the newly created Subcommittee on Digital Assets. Lummis, a long-time advocate for Bitcoin and blockchain technology, is uniquely positioned to champion legislation that promotes innovation while addressing key concerns around market integrity and consumer protection.

Her leadership comes at a critical time, as Congress considers landmark legislation such as the Stablecoin Act and the Bitcoin Act. The Stablecoin Act, which could see approval this year, aims to establish clear guidelines for stablecoin issuance and use. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Act proposes an audacious goal: for the US government to accumulate 5% of bitcoin’s total supply. There are obstacles to this proposal, some of which I noted in August last year, but if enacted, this legislation could significantly impact Bitcoin’s global adoption and price trajectory.

  1. A game-changing executive order

The White House also contributed to the week’s momentum with a new executive order aimed at shaping the future of digital assets in the US. A key aspect of this order is its rejection of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in favor of fostering stablecoin development. President Trump has been vocal about his preference for implementing a ”digital dollar” on top of open blockchain networks, a move that aligns with crypto’s decentralized ethos.

This executive order also signals the end of ”Operation Chokepoint,” an informal campaign that had effectively debanked parts of the crypto industry. By reaffirming the importance of open networks and stablecoins, the administration is providing a clear direction for the role digital assets could play in the US financial system.

Perhaps the most intriguing development is the proposal to establish a government stockpile of digital assets. While the term “stockpile” has been carefully chosen over “reserve” to avoid direct comparisons with traditional currency reserves, the implications are nonetheless profound. The working group tasked with studying this proposal has expanded its scope beyond bitcoin to include crypto assets more broadly.

While it’s too early to predict how or whether the stockpile will be established, the study represents a thoughtful approach to a high-stakes decision. It could mark the beginning of a global trend, with other nations potentially racing to stockpile crypto assets as part of their sovereign holdings, which we’ve already seen this week with the Czech central bank.

  1. Steps toward a comprehensive regulatory framework

The week’s developments also highlight the ongoing evolution of regulatory characterization. US regulators are moving toward a more nuanced understanding of digital assets, which is essential for crafting effective policies. This trend was echoed in the revocation of SAB 121 and the growing momentum behind legislation like the Stablecoin Act. Additionally, the broader regulatory framework for market structure in digital assets, which could happen this year or next, will likely address issues ranging from trading practices to asset classification. These steps indicate a deliberate effort to integrate crypto into the financial system with precision and clarity.

  1. The start of a geopolitical race to embrace crypto

These developments, particularly the possibility of a US crypto stockpile, also raises the stakes on the global stage. Sovereign states accumulating crypto assets could lead to a new form of economic competition, where digital assets play a central role in national strategy.

The US government’s interest in studying this proposal reflects an understanding of crypto’s growing significance in global finance. It also aligns with the nation’s broader goals of maintaining technological and economic leadership.

What’s next?

The developments of the past week are part of a broader trend of increasing institutional and governmental recognition of crypto’s potential. However, several key milestones remain on the horizon:

Stablecoin Act Approval: This legislation, which could happen before the fourth quarter this year, will provide much-needed clarity for stablecoin issuers and users.

• Market Structure Framework: Expected by 2026, this framework will define the rules of engagement for trading and investing in digital assets.

• Bitcoin Act Progress: If the US government begins accumulating bitcoin, it could have profound implications for the asset’s supply dynamics and global adoption.

• Stockpile Study Results: The findings of the crypto stockpile working group could shape the long-term digital asset strategy in the US.

As these milestones approach, bitcoin and other crypto assets are likely to experience heightened volatility, but also greater legitimacy. Investors, policymakers, and innovators will continue to pay attention to these developments, as they could define the future of the global economy. While challenges remain, the direction is clear: crypto is moving from the fringes of finance to center stage. As these changes unfold, the crypto ecosystem is poised to evolve into a more robust and integral part of the global economy, presenting investors with attractive opportunities to get broad exposure to this emerging asset class.


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