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Explore multifactor investing for the rotation toward mid and small caps
Market momentum has been shifting recently with a rotation away from large-cap stocks. As more investors look to broaden their exposures, Franklin Templeton’s Dina Ting weighs in with a few considerations for diversification through multifactor ETFs.
In retrospect (and barring any impact from airline outages and the like), the first weekend of August would have been an excellent time for a vacation. Hopefully, you had a few screen-free days focused on a good beach book and spared yourself the anxiety of some wild market swings.
During this time of global market turmoil, Japan’s stock indexes experienced heightened volatility. A surge in the yen—that gave pause over the prospects of Japanese exporters—followed worrisome new US economic data and exacerbated fears. Over just two trading sessions, Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 Index dropped 12.4% on Monday, August 5, 2024, before rebounding over 10% the next day.1
Even investors who were blissfully unaware of the selloff drama in real time were probably still experiencing some creeping concerns over portfolio concentration to US technology giants. Judging by Wall Street’s elevated “fear gauge,” the VIX index, you’re in good company if this summer has tested your faith in the Magnificent Seven3 tech darlings.
But before any more panic sets in, consider a few points we’re thinking about this month. Namely, focusing on long-term investment strategy means ignoring the “bobs up and down,” as Warren Buffet puts it. US unemployment is still rather low at 4.3%4 and given that economic activity in the services sector expanded in July,5 we believe an imminent recessionary environment appears unlikely.
Historically, during cooling economic cycles, investors typically favor blue chips, but July’s moderating inflation data boosted sentiment for mid- and small-capitalization stocks. Both the Russell 2000 Index, which rose 10.2%, and the Russell Midcap Index, up 4.7%, outperformed the S&P 500 Index’s 1.2% gain for July.6
Overlooked mid- and small-cap segments
The market rotation away from mega-cap stocks has fueled attention to the often-overlooked, mid-cap segment and led to a preference for interest-rate-sensitive, small-cap stocks following indications from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) over lower borrowing costs to come, possibly in September.
Despite the attractive risk/reward profile of mid caps, which feature more established customer bases and brands than their smaller-cap peers, investors tend to be under-allocated to the segment. To put this in perspective, investments in large-cap mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are about nine times greater than those in mid-cap mutual funds and ETFs.7 US mid-cap stocks (as measured by the S&P MidCap 400 Index) have outperformed their large-cap (as measured by the S&P 500 Index) and small-cap (as measured by the S&P Small Cap 600 Index) counterparts over the past three decades.8 In our analysis, many mid-sized companies hit the so-called “sweet spot” in that they feature a lower risk profile than small caps and faster growth prospects than large caps.
Exposure to mid-caps indexes also offer the added benefit of diversification. At the end of July, technology sector holdings comprised 29% of the Russell 1000 Index compared to just 13% in the Russell Midcap Index.9 And while utility companies were the best performers (+18% total returns) for the mid-cap index, they held the smallest sector weighting within large-cap benchmarks.
Beyond the market-cap criteria, we believe that multifactor strategies can target allocation and pursue stronger risk-adjusted returns for a smoother ride over the long term compared to traditional market-cap-based indexing. In our view, a forward-looking, rules-based index design that analyzes individual stock exposure against a well-vetted mix of factors—quality, value, momentum and low volatility—can serve as a middle ground between active and passive management. The process may provide exposure to high-quality companies at a reasonable price, while also potentially avoiding value traps.
As shown in the table below, quality-tilted and momentum stocks, which tend to show ongoing positive price trends, performed better than the broader market last year. The S&P MidCap 400 Quality Index and the S&P MidCap 400 Momentum Index, returned nearly 30% and 20.3%, respectively, for the year against the 16.4% gain for the overall S&P MidCap 400 Index.10 By comparison, the low volatility factor underperformed the most in 2023.
Exhibit 1: Differentiated Sources of Returns
One-Year Absolute Return by Factors
December 31, 2023
Source: Morningstar as of 12/31/2023.
The case for small caps
July’s broadened stock rally brings into view the market’s small-cap segment. That same month, the Russell 2000 Index of smaller stocks saw its largest outperformance over mega caps in decades, returning more than 10%, while the Nasdaq-100 Index lost 1.6%.11
Currently, at 15.1x forward earnings, the small-cap benchmark is trading at a discount to both its long-term average and the S&P 500’s forward price-earnings ratio of 20.4x.12 We believe that a multifactor approach to small caps, which we consider to be an attractive asset class, should be represented in diversified portfolios.
Stocks with value traits—which emphasize holdings that are inexpensive relative to their fundamentals—have underperformed in recent months and year-to-date through August 8, 2024, not only within the small-cap but also for the mid-cap segment. But zoom out further and we see that the Russell 2000 Value Index has outperformed the Russell 2000 Growth Index over the past 25 years by 1.82% on an annualized basis.13 In our opinion, anchoring quality-tilted stocks, marked by profitable companies with capital efficiency and momentum, together with value and low-volatility factors can hedge against risks.
Year-to-date through August 8, 2024, consumer staples holdings were the top performers for the small-cap index, with such specialty food companies as Vital Farms, Sprouts Farmers and Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage leading the way.14 Consumer staples tends to be a safe-haven sector that can outperform during times of uncertainty, such as amid periods of political uncertainty.
Being earlier in their business life cycle, small caps are generally seen to have strong growth prospects, and the segment has appealed to investors this year as a timely investment given anticipated rate cuts. Since smaller companies generally have more borrowing needs, they tend to get a boost when monetary policy eases.
Exhibit 2: Small-Cap Performance After Fed Rate Cuts
Russell 2000 Index Performance After Fed Rate Cuts
June 2001–June 2020
Sources: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
We believe that factor diversification can allow for a targeted outcome with a smoother risk/return profile versus market capitalization-based indexes. In addition, holding a multifactor portfolio can also provide the advantage of not attempting to time factor cycles, nor incur costs associated with switching from one product to another. A multifactor methodology allows investors to outsource that task—so your summer beach time can be better spent.
2024 was a landmark year for bitcoin, solidifying its role as a fully institutionalised asset class.
Institutional inflows into physical bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) reached nearly $35 billion globally, signalling a major shift in how traditional investors view crypto. As bitcoin continued to enhance portfolios’ risk-return profiles, more institutional investors followed suit, reshaping the financial landscape.
Looking ahead, 2025 promises to bring exciting developments across the crypto ecosystem. Here are the top five crypto trends to watch.
Fear of being left behind
The era of bitcoin as a niche investment is over. Institutional adoption is creating a ripple effect, forcing hesitant players to reconsider. Portfolios with bitcoin allocations are consistently outperforming those without, highlighting its growing importance.
Figure 1: Bitcoin in a multi-asset portfolio
| 60/40 Global Portfolio | 1% Bitcoin Portfolio | 3% Bitcoin Portfolio | 5% Bitcoin Portfolio | 10% Bitcoin Portfolio | MSCI AC World | Bloomberg Multiverse | Bitcoin | |
| Annualised Return | 5.77% | 6.46% | 7.83% | 9.20% | 12.57% | 9.07% | 0.56% | 56.24% |
| Volatility | 8.79% | 8.86% | 9.14% | 9.62% | 11.42% | 13.94% | 5.05% | 67.28% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.48 | 0.55 | 0.68 | 0.79 | 0.96 | 0.54 | -0.20 | 0.81 |
| Information Ratio | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.00 | ||||
| Beta | 70% | 71% | 73% | 75% | 81% | 100% | 24% | 181% |
Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree. From 31 December 2013 to 30 November 2024. In USD. Based on daily returns. The 60/40 Global Portfolio is composed of 60% MSCI All Country World and 40% Bloomberg Multiverse. You cannot invest directly in an index. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investment may go down in value.
With bitcoin’s ability to noticeably improve portfolios’ risk-return profiles, asset managers face a clear choice: integrate bitcoin into multi-asset portfolios or risk falling behind in a rapidly evolving financial landscape. In 2025, expect the competition to heat up as clients demand exposure to this powerhouse cryptocurrency.
Expanding crypto investment options
In 2024, regulatory breakthroughs opened the doors for physical bitcoin and ether ETPs in key developed markets. This marked a critical step towards making cryptocurrencies mainstream, providing seamless access to institutional and retail investors alike.
Figure 2: Global physical crypto ETP assets under management (AUM) and 2024 net flows
Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree. 02 January 2025. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investment may go down in value.
In 2025, this momentum is expected to accelerate as the crypto regulatory environment becomes more friendly in the United States and as key developed markets follow Europe’s lead and approve ETPs for altcoins such as Solana and XRP. With their clear utility and growing adoption, these altcoins are strong candidates for institutional investment vehicles.
This next wave of altcoin ETPs will expand the diversity of crypto investment opportunities and further integrate cryptocurrencies into the global financial system.
The maturing of Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem
Ethereum’s role as the backbone of decentralised finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and Web3 is unmatched, but its scalability challenges remain a hurdle. Layer-2 solutions—technologies such as Arbitrum and Optimism—are transforming Ethereum’s scalability and usability by enabling faster, cheaper transactions.
In 2025, Ethereum’s recent upgrades, such as Proto-Danksharding (introduced in the ‘Dencun’ upgrade), will drive layer-2 adoption even further. Innovations like Visa’s layer-2 payment platform leveraging Ethereum for instant cross-border transactions will underscore the platform’s evolution.
Expect Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem to power real-world use cases ranging from tokenized assets to decentralised gaming, positioning it as the infrastructure of a truly scalable digital economy.
Stablecoins: bridging finance and blockchain
Stablecoins are becoming indispensable to the global financial system, offering the stability of traditional assets with the efficiency of blockchain. Platforms such as Ethereum dominate the stablecoin landscape, hosting stablecoin giants Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), which facilitate billions in daily transactions.
Figure 3: Key stablecoin chains
Source: Artemis Terminal, WisdomTree. 05 January 2025. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investment may go down in value.
As we move into 2025, stablecoins will increasingly interact with blockchain ecosystems such as Solana and XRP. Solana’s high-speed, low-cost infrastructure makes it ideal for stablecoin payments and remittances, while XRP Ledger’s focus on cross-border efficiency positions it as a leader in global settlements. With institutional adoption rising and DeFi applications booming, stablecoins will serve as the backbone of a seamless, interconnected financial ecosystem.
Tokenization: redefining ownership and revolutionising finance
Tokenization is set to redefine how we think about ownership and value. By converting tangible assets like real estate, commodities, stocks, and art into digital tokens, tokenization breaks down barriers to entry and creates unprecedented liquidity.
In 2025, tokenization will expand dramatically, empowering investors to own fractions of high-value assets. Platforms such as Paxos Gold and AspenCoin are already showcasing how tokenization can revolutionize markets for gold and luxury real estate. The integration of tokenized assets into DeFi will unlock new financial opportunities, such as using tokenized real estate as collateral for loans. As tokenization matures, it will transform industries ranging from private equity to venture capital, creating a more inclusive and efficient financial system.
For the avoidance of any doubt, tokenization complements crypto by expanding the use cases of blockchain to include real-world applications.
Looking ahead
2025 is set to be a defining year for crypto, as innovation, regulation, and adoption converge. Whether it is bitcoin cementing its position as a portfolio staple, Ethereum scaling for mainstream use, or tokenization unlocking liquidity in untapped markets, the crypto ecosystem is poised for explosive growth. For investors and institutions alike, the opportunities have never been clearer or more compelling.
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
On January 20, 2025, bitcoin (BTC) reached a new all-time high, surpassing $109,000, and this milestone coincided with Donald Trump’s inauguration for his second term as U.S. President.
Historical trends show that BTC has performed exceptionally well in the 12 months following the past three U.S. elections. If history repeats, this could signal another bullish phase. With Trump’s pro-BTC stance and a U.S. Congress aligned on favorable digital regulation, the outlook for the coming months appears highly promising.
Source: Hashdex Research with data from Messari (from November 6, 2012 to January 19, 2025).
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS | Jan 13 2025 – Jan 19 2025
Bitcoin-backed loans enabled on Coinbase’s L2
• Now customers can borrow USDC in the new base’s lending protocol by using bitcoin as collateral.
• This underscores the importance of onchain innovations as the pillar for future adoption of blockchain technology, in this case enhancing personal finance to be more decentralized and intuitive in a permissionless etho..
ETF filings reiterate bullish regulatory tailwinds
• As Donald Trump’s inauguration approaches, several asset managers have filed applications for new crypto ETF products, including those focused on assets like LTC and XRP.
• This reflects optimism for 2025’s crypto regulations and their potential to transform the regulated products landscape.
Trump to make crypto top priority in US agenda
• U.S. President-elect Donald Trump allegedly plans to issue an executive order making crypto a national policy priority and establishing an advisory council.
• The announcement signals that crypto has gained political importance. Even if not all promises are met, crypto has already crossed the chasm.
MARKET METRICS
The Nasdaq Crypto Index™
This week saw a significant rise in digital assets as the market awaits Trump’s inauguration, with the NCI™ (+15.3%) outperforming all traditional asset classes. The NCI™ (+13.2%) also outperformed BTC (+12.1%), highlighting the value of diversification in a volatile market. The performance was positively impacted by SOL’s strong 46.3% gain, while ETH’s underwhelming 3.0% growth had a dampening effect.
Source: Hashdex Research with data from CF Benchmarks and Bloomberg (from December 31, 2024 to January 19, 2025).
It was a strong week for the NCI™ , with SOL leading the pack (among others, like XRP and LINK), surging 46.3%, while BTC (12.1%) and ETH (3.0%) lagged behind. This price action seems driven by excitement around Trump’s inauguration and the crypto-friendly environment his promises suggest.
Source: Hashdex Research with data from Messari (from January 12, 2025 to January 19, 2025).
Indices tracked by Hashdex
Source: Hashdex Research with data from CF Benchmarks and Vinter (from January 19, 2024 to January 19, 2025).
5 crypto trends to watch in 2025
FGLR ETF gör hållbara investeringar i hela världen
Trump’s inauguration day, BTC all-time high and the US election bullish effect
AXA IM antar SDR-märkningar för tre aktiefonder i Storbritannien
HSDD ETF köper aktier i hållbara företag från den utvecklade världen
De mest eftersökta ETFerna i december 2024
Post-election rally cools at year end
De bästa ETFerna för värdeaktier
BlackRock slår rekord med lanseringen av bitcoin ETF
Hector McNeil kommenterar Trumps krav på Natos försvarsutgifter
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Nyheter3 veckor sedanDe mest eftersökta ETFerna i december 2024
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Nyheter2 veckor sedanPost-election rally cools at year end
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Nyheter3 veckor sedanDe bästa ETFerna för värdeaktier
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Nyheter3 veckor sedanBlackRock slår rekord med lanseringen av bitcoin ETF
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Nyheter3 veckor sedanHector McNeil kommenterar Trumps krav på Natos försvarsutgifter
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Nyheter3 veckor sedanBuffertstrategin på Nasdaq-100 med december 2024/2025 som ny målperiod
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Nyheter4 veckor sedanValour PYTH SEK spårar priset på kryptovalutan PYTH
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Nyheter4 veckor sedanJREZ ETF investerar i företag från Eurozonen med höga ESG-betyg
