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ETC Group Crypto Market Compass #8 2024

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ETC Group Crypto Market Compass #8 2024 Last week, cryptoassets outperformed traditional assets by a very wide margin as Bitcoin reclaimed 50k USD in price and 1 trn USD in market cap again

• Last week, cryptoassets outperformed traditional assets by a very wide margin as Bitcoin reclaimed 50k USD in price and 1 trn USD in market cap again

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has also continued to increase and still signals bullish sentiment

• There is an increasing divergence between global Bitcoin ETP inflows and Gold ETP outflows which might be an early sign for bitcoin stealing gold’s crown as the prime store-of-value


Chart of the Week

Performance

Last week, cryptoassets outperformed traditional assets like US equities or commodities by a very wide margin. In fact, while most major asset classes showed a negative performance last week, some major cryptoassets like Ethereum even posted double-digit returns. It appears as if cryptoassets are increasingly starting to decouple from the performance of traditional assets.

In this context, we are also observing an increasing divergence between global fund flows into Bitcoin ETPs and fund flows into global Gold ETPs (Chart-of-the-Week). While global Gold ETPs have seen net outflows or approximately -2.6 bn USD, global Bitcoin ETPs have attracted around +4.8 bn USD year-to-date, according to our own calculations based on Bloomberg data.

In general, we also expect this trend to continue, as our medium- to long-term expectation is that Bitcoin will ultimately disrupt Gold as the prime store-of-value. If that were the case, i.e. if Bitcoin had a similar market cap than Gold today (~13 trn USD), one single bitcoin would cost around ~600k USD which implies significant upside potential if this scenario continues to materialize.

What is more is that net inflows into Bitcoin ETPs have started to accelerate, as both outflows from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) have slowed down and inflows into other products have accelerated. According to a recent study by CryptoQuant, the large majority of new investments overall into Bitcoin appears to be related to investments into US ETFs. So, there is an increasing importance of those new ETF flows for Bitcoin’s performance.

In general, among the top 10 crypto assets, Ethereum, Cardano, and Binance’s BNB token were the relative outperformers.

Overall altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin also picked up compared to the week prior, with 40% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis.

Sentiment

Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has also continued to increase and still signals bullish sentiment.

At the moment, 13 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.

High momentum in global crypto ETP flows as well as low BTC exchange inflows remain very supportive at the moment.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in ”Greed” territory as of this morning.

Meanwhile, our own measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) has also continued to increase as throughout the week which is signalling a positive sentiment in traditional financial markets.

Besides, performance dispersion among cryptoassets has increased again and remains relatively high.

In general, high performance dispersion among cryptoassets implies that correlations among cryptoassets are low, which means that cryptoassets are trading more on coin-specific factors.

At the same time, altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has also increased, with a clear outperformance of Ethereum vis-à-vis Bitcoin last week. Viewed more broadly, around 40% of our tracked altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin on a weekly basis.

In general, increasing altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing risk appetite within cryptoasset markets.

Fund Flows

Overall, we saw very significant net fund inflows in the amount of +2292.1 mn USD (week ending Friday) based on Bloomberg data across all types of cryptoassets. In fact, we saw the highest weekly net inflows into cryptoasset ETPs year-to-date last week.

Global Bitcoin ETPs continued to see significant net inflows of +2261.1 mn USD of which +2273.4 mn (net) were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone. The ETC Group Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) saw net inflows equivalent to +12.1 mn USD last week.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued to see net outflows of around -624 mn USD last week albeit at a steady pace. This was more than offset by net inflows into other US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Note that some fund flows data for US major issuers are still lacking in the abovementioned numbers due to T+2 settlement.

Apart from Bitcoin, we saw comparatively small flows into other cryptoassets last week again.

Inflows into global Ethereum ETPs picked up last week to around +27.2 mn USD. The ETC Group Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) attracted +1.3 mn USD in inflows. Besides, Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum that managed to attract +4.7 mn USD last week.

In contrast, thematic & basket crypto ETPs continued to experience net outflows of -1.9 mn USD, based on our calculations. The ETC Group MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) did neither see in- nor outflows last week. (+/- 0 mn USD).

Besides, the beta of global crypto hedge funds to Bitcoin over the last 20 trading increased to around 1.0 which implies that global crypto hedge funds are currently positioned neutral to Bitcoin market risks.

On-Chain Data

On-Chain developments continue to support the positive performance at the moment. Global aggregate BTC exchange balances continue to drift lower and have just recently reached a new multi-year low.

In fact, we saw a very significant BTC exchange outflow today between 3:00 am and 4:00 am UTC during the Asian session when around -17,119 BTC were transferred out of exchange, most of which happened on Coinbase. Coinbase BTC exchange balances reached their lowest level since July 2015. These large downward spikes in exchange balances usually indicate institutional buying activity, as institutional investors usually keep their coins off the general exchange in so-called “cold storage”.

This is also supported by the observation that we saw net exchange outflows of -34.1k BTC last week only within the wallet cohort between 1 mn USD and 10 mn USD, so larger investors.

Another piece of evidence that also supports this is the fact that the overall number of BTC whales have skyrocketed recently and is now at the highest level in 3 years. In this context, whales are defined as the number of unique entities holding at least 1k bitcoins.

Whales continue to withdraw bitcoins from exchanges on a net basis. Based on our calculations, whales have been withdrawing around -5.8k BTC on average per day over the past week.

At the same time, some BTC on-chain analysts have pointed towards the fact that long-term holders have started distributing their supply already. In fact, long-term holder supply has been falling from 14.956 mn BTC at the beginning of the year to 14.659 mn BTC yesterday (-297k BTC net decline).

That being said, short-term holder supply has been increasing by around +366k BTC during the same period which implies a demand overhang by short-term holders.

Although this distribution by long-term holders is worth watching, it could simply be related to GBTC’s distributions of bitcoins while other new ETFs have started accumulating BTC.

Meanwhile, aggregate Ethereum (ETH) exchange balances also continued to drift downwards and are now near their multi-year lows as well.

Futures, Options & Perpetuals

Aggregate BTC futures open interest has remained fairly stable last week while CME futures open interest has increased only slightly by around +4k BTC.

Meanwhile, BTC perpetual open interest has even declined by around -12k BTC. This maybe related to the fact that we saw a significant increase in future short liquidations on Wednesday last week as bitcoin surpassed the 50k USD mark. Short liquidations were generally supportive of the latest increase in prices.

Besides, the 3-months annualized BTC futures basis continued to increase to around 14.4% p.a. and the BTC perpetual funding rate increased to the highest level since January 2nd across major derivatives exchanges.

BTC options’ open interest also increased last week by around +18k BTC. At the same time, the Put-call open interest also increased throughout the week implying that option traders continued to build up downside protections throughout the week. Put-call volume ratios were also somewhat elevated.

This observation seems to be supported by the fact that the 25-delta BTC option skew for 1 week expiries increased last week, albeit from low levels, which implies a relatively higher demand for put options. However, the skew for other expiries was mostly flat.

Option implied volatilities also increased again as realized volatility picked up with Bitcoin reaching multi-year highs. At the time of writing, BTC 1-month ATM implied volatilities are at around 55% on Deribit.


Bottom Line

• Last week, cryptoassets outperformed traditional assets by a very wide margin as Bitcoin reclaimed 50k USD in price and 1 trn USD in market cap again

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has also continued to increase and still signals bullish sentiment

• There is an increasing divergence between global Bitcoin ETP inflows and Gold ETP outflows which might be an early sign for bitcoin stealing gold’s crown as the prime store-of-value

Disclaimer

Important Information

The information provided in this material is for informative purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or solicitation to conclude a transaction. This document (which may be in the form of a blogpost, research article, marketing brochure, press release, social media post, blog post, broadcast communication or similar instrument – we refer to this category of communications generally as a “document” for purposes of this disclaimer) is issued by ETC Issuance GmbH (the “issuer”), a limited company incorporated under the laws of Germany, having its corporate domicile in Germany. This document has been prepared in accordance with applicable laws and regulations (including those relating to financial promotions). If you are considering investing in any securities issued by ETC Group, including any securities described in this document, you should check with your broker or bank that securities issued by ETC Group are available in your jurisdiction and suitable for your investment profile.

Exchange-traded commodities/cryptocurrencies, or ETPs, are a highly volatile asset and performance is unpredictable. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The market price of ETPs will vary and they do not offer a fixed income. The value of any investment in ETPs may be affected by exchange rate and underlying price movements. This document may contain forward-looking statements including statements regarding ETC Group’s belief or current expectations with regards to the performance of certain asset classes. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that such statements will be accurate and actual results could differ materially. Therefore, you must not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. This document does not constitute investment advice nor an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any product or make any investment. An investment in an ETC that is linked to cryptocurrency, such as those offered by ETC Group, is dependent on the performance of the underlying cryptocurrency, less costs, but it is not expected to match that performance precisely. ETPs involve numerous risks including, among others, general market risks relating to underlying adverse price movements and currency, liquidity, operational, legal, and regulatory risks.

For more details and the full disclaimer

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Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis

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Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
  • Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
  • Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
  • What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?

Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has amassed a staggering $43 billion in Bitcoin, positioning itself at the forefront of the corporate “reserve race.” Under the leadership of Bitcoin maximalist Michael Saylor, the company now boasts an $84 billion market cap. But with such an aggressive strategy, how sustainable is its approach—and what risks lie ahead? We break it down in today’s analysis.

Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?

A drop below $72,000 could flush longs, while a breakout above $90,000 may squeeze shorts. One key positive indicator is that Bitcoin continues to print higher lows since March 10, which preserves a bullish market structure in our view. Dive into our technical analysis.

What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?

Imagine owning a slice of a skyscraper or a piece of fine art with just a few clicks. Tokenization, the act of converting ownership rights to real-world assets (RWAs) into tradable tokens, has surpassed $10 billion in on-chain value, unlocking global 24/7 access to once-exclusive markets with liquidity, efficiency, and yield. Find out how it works.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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BSE0 ETF köper bara företagsobligationer med förfall 2030

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Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc (BSE0 ETF) med ISIN IE000I25S1V5, försöker följa Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened-index. Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2030) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2030 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc (BSE0 ETF) med ISIN IE000I25S1V5, försöker följa Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened-index. Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2030) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2030 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,10 % p.a. Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc är den billigaste och största ETF som följer Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 6 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 18 juni 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Produktbeskrivning

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF Acc syftar till att ge den totala avkastningen för Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index (”Referensindexet”), minus avgifternas inverkan. Fonden har en fast löptid och kommer att upphöra på Förfallodagen.

Referensindexet är utformat för att återspegla resultatet för EUR-denominerade, investeringsklassade, fast ränta, skattepliktiga skuldebrev emitterade av företagsemittenter. För att vara berättigade till inkludering måste företagsvärdepapper ha minst 300 miljoner euro i nominellt utestående belopp och en effektiv löptid på eller mellan 1 januari 2030 och 31 december 2030.

Värdepapper är uteslutna om emittenter: 1) är inblandade i kontroversiella vapen, handeldvapen, militära kontrakt, oljesand, termiskt kol eller tobak; 2) inte har en kontroversnivå enligt definitionen av Sustainalytics eller har en Sustainalytics-kontroversnivå högre än 4; 3) anses inte följa principerna i FN:s Global Compact; eller 4) kommer från tillväxtmarknader.

Portföljförvaltarna strävar efter att uppnå fondens mål genom att tillämpa en urvalsstrategi, som inkluderar användning av kvantitativ analys, för att välja en andel av värdepapperen från referensindexet som representerar hela indexets egenskaper, med hjälp av faktorer som index- vägd genomsnittlig varaktighet, industrisektorer, landvikter och kreditkvalitet. När en företagsobligation som innehas av fonden når förfallodag kommer kontanterna som fonden tar emot att användas för att investera i kortfristiga EUR-denominerade skulder.

ETFen förvaltas passivt.

En investering i denna fond är ett förvärv av andelar i en passivt förvaltad indexföljande fond snarare än i de underliggande tillgångarna som ägs av fonden.

Förfallodag: andra onsdagen i december 2026 eller sådant annat datum som bestäms av styrelseledamöterna och meddelas aktieägaren

Handla BSE0 ETF

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc (BSE0 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
XETRAEURBSE0

Största innehav

NamnCUSIPISINKupongräntaVikt %
Fresenius SE & Co KGaA 5.125% 05/10/30D2R9K1AL3XS26987136955.1252.55%
Mercedes-Benz Group AG 2.375% 22/05/30D1668RZW0DE000A289XG82.3752.19%
Akzo Nobel NV 1.625% 14/04/30N01803YV6XS21565982811.6252.08%
Eni SpA 0.625% 23/01/30T3666JJV9XS21073154700.6251.98%
Prologis International Funding II 2.375% 14/11/30L7763MAD2XS19046903412.3751.78%
REWE International Finance BV 4.875% 13/09/30N74119AA1XS26798981844.8751.65%
CaixaBank SA 4.25% 06/09/30E2R193R97XS26768144994.2501.64%
Verizon Communications Inc 4.25% 31/10/30XS25508811434.2501.64%
Liberty Mutual Group Inc 4.625% 02/12/30U52932BR7XS25616473684.6251.62%
AXA SA 3.75% 12/10/30F0609NBG2XS25372511703.7501.60%

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US regulatory shift provides a beacon for optimism

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Since President Trump appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chair two months ago, many investigations into crypto businesses have been dropped, as the SEC moves away from regulation by enforcement and works to create a framework for digital assets. As regulations become clearer and news flow turns more positive, crypto prices—which dropped sharply this week—should begin to better reflect the new regulatory landscape in the US.

Since President Trump appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chair two months ago, many investigations into crypto businesses have been dropped, as the SEC moves away from regulation by enforcement and works to create a framework for digital assets. As regulations become clearer and news flow turns more positive, crypto prices—which dropped sharply this week—should begin to better reflect the new regulatory landscape in the US.

We believe this regulatory shift could ultimately help trigger the next leg of the current bull run, as investors better understand the significance of regulatory clarity and seek to acquire bitcoin and altcoins at what we believe are currently very favorable levels.

Market Highlights

SEC Dismisses Crypto Enforcement Actions

The SEC dropped its enforcement actions against crypto-related companies Kraken, Consensys, and Cumberland DRW.

This indicates a shift in SEC’s regulatory approach, favoring clearer guidelines over enforcement actions. Such a pivot could foster a more predictable environment, encouraging innovation within the sector.

Banks to Engage in Crypto Activities

The FDIC has rescinded previous guidelines which prevented financial institutions from engaging with crypto activities without prior sign-off.

By removing bureaucratic hurdles, banks may more readily offer crypto-related services, potentially leading to broader adoption and integration of digital assets.

Bitcoin ETFs Inflow Streak Surpassed $1 Billion

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a 10-day inflow streak exceeding $1 billion marking the longest such streak in 2025.

This underscores growing institutional and retail investor confidence in Bitcoin as an asset class that helps increase market stability and possibly paving the way for the approval of other crypto-based financial products.

Market Metrics

All NCITM constituents had negative performance last week, with XRP (-10.8%) and UNI (-10.7%) seeing the steepest declines. ETH also experienced a sharp drop (-9.1%), contributing to NCITM’s underperformance relative to BTC (-2.9%). The NCITM -4.2% decline reflects a broader risk-off sentiment in the crypto market, as investors reassess their positions amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.

NCITM (-4.2%) extended its underperformance last week, deepening year-to-date losses. Traditional indices like the S&P 500 (-1.5%) and Nasdaq 100 (-2.4%) saw smaller declines. The gap between crypto and other risk assets continues to widen, while gold has emerged as the top performer in 2025, gaining nearly 20% amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. This trend highlights a growing risk-off sentiment, with investors shifting toward defensive assets and away from high-volatility investments.

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