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ETC Group Crypto Market Compass #7 2024

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ETC Group Crypto Market Compass #7 2024 • Bitcoin closes at highest price since December 2021 as cryptoassets recover strongly on the back of positive net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs and rising futures open interest

• Bitcoin closes at highest price since December 2021 as cryptoassets recover strongly on the back of positive net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs and rising futures open interest

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has also recovered strongly and signals bullish sentiment

• Global Bitcoin ETP flows top +1 bn USD last week as monthly flows into top 2 US products were best in US ETF history


Chart of the Week

Performance

Last week, cryptoassets continued to recover strongly on the back of positive net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs and rising futures open interest.

More specifically, global cryptoasset ETP fund flows topped +1 bn USD last week which was the highest weekly net inflow since the first week of trading of the US spot Bitcoin ETFs in early January.

One month after the launch of the US spot Bitcoin ETFs, the top 2 US products have recorded the most flows in the history of US ETF trading launches which demonstrates that the launch has been a huge success so far.

Meanwhile, BTC futures open interest also picked up significantly in a sign that global risk appetite is returning. In fact, our in-house Cryptoasset Sentiment Index has also recovered briskly to levels last seen before the recent “sell-the-news” correction which is consistent with an overall return in cross asset risk appetite.

Meanwhile, a recent institutional trader survey by JP Morgan implies that overall interest in cryptoassets is still rather lukewarm. In a poll of more than 4,000 traders conducted by the bank, 78% of respondents said they would not trade cryptocurrencies, and only 12% said they would do so over the next five years.

Besides, Google Trends search queries for “bitcoin” in the US also remain well below previous cycle peaks of 2021 or 2017 which implies that retail sentiment is also still muted which is overall a positive sign amid increasing risk appetite.

It seems as if the market is turning a blind eye on unpleasant macro developments that are happening in the background such as increasing risks in the global financial system and as such increasing recession risks.

For instance, last week the German lender Deutsche Pfandbriefbank came into crosshairs as it significantly increased its loan loss provisions related to its US commercial real estate exposure. This is following similar developments in the US (New York Community Bank) and in Japan (Aozora Bank) more recently.

That being said, in particular Bitcoin could be regarded as a hedge against rising systemic risks in the banking system as a censorship-resistant and counterparty risk-free asset.

One of the reasons why markets are turning a blind eye is the Chinese New Year celebrations that were accompanied by increasing monetary stimuli by the People’s Bank of China. In fact, aggregate financing in China, which comprises of bank loans and non-bank financing activity in China, has reached an all-time high in January 2024.

Although it is quite common to see a seasonal pick-up in lending activity in China during the annual new year festivities around January/February, the fact that it has reached an all-time high is yet another piece of evidence that the Chinese authorities are clearly trying to support the economy. Lending activity in China usually leads real economic activity by approximately half a year which implies improving economic conditions over the coming months.

What is more is that, based on our own calculations, improvements in global growth expectations have been the major macro factor for Bitcoin’s performance over the past 6 months. So, since China is the global business cycle behemoth, any further positive news from China should also affect Bitcoin and cryptoassets positively.

In general, among the top 10 crypto assets, Avalanche, Bitcoin, and Solana were the relative outperformers.

Solana outperformed somewhat counter-intuitively despite an outage that happened last week due to a fixed but not yet implemented bug fix.

However, altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin was relatively weak, with only 10% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis.

Sentiment

Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has also recovered strongly and signals bullish sentiment.

At the moment, 9 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.

Compared to last week, we saw major reversals to the upside in global crypto ETP fund flows and the BTC futures long liquidation dominance.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in ”Greed” territory as of this morning.

Meanwhile, our own measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) has continued to increase as well which is signalling a positive sentiment in traditional financial markets.

Besides, performance dispersion among cryptoassets has declined somewhat but still remained relatively high.

In general, high performance dispersion among cryptoassets implies that correlations among cryptoassets are low, which means that cryptoassets are trading more on coin-specific factors.

At the same time, altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin was still relatively low, with an underperformance of Ethereum vis-à-vis Bitcoin last week. Viewed more broadly, only 10% of our tracked altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin on a weekly basis.

In general, low altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of low risk appetite within cryptoasset markets.

Fund Flows

Overall, we saw net fund inflows in the amount of +1091.9 mn USD (week ending Friday) based on Bloomberg data across all types of cryptoassets.

Global Bitcoin ETPs continued to see significant net inflows of +1079.5 mn USD of which +1194.4 mn (net) were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued to see net outflows of around -415 mn USD last week albeit at a decelerating pace. This was more than offset by net inflows into other US spot Bitcoin ETFs. For instance, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) took in +684 mn USD and Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF (FBTC) took in +523 mn USD last week.

Both IBIT and FBTC have recorded the most flows in the history of US ETF trading launches one month after trading launch which demonstrates that the launch has been a huge success so far.

Note that some fund flows data for US major issuers are still lacking in the abovementioned numbers due to T+2 settlement.

Apart from Bitcoin, we saw comparatively small flows into other cryptoassets last week.

There were some minor inflows into global Ethereum ETPs of around +6.7 mn USD. Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum that managed to attract +17.2 mn USD last week.

In contrast, thematic & basket crypto ETPs experienced net outflows of -11.4 mn USD, based on our calculations.

Besides, the beta of global crypto hedge funds to Bitcoin over the last 20 trading still implies that global crypto hedge funds remain under-exposed to Bitcoin market risks.

On-Chain Data

Positive on-chain developments have also supported the recent recovery. For instance, BTC exchange balances have reversed last week and reached their lowest level since July 2018. ETH exchange balances have also continued to drift lower.

All in all, BTC net exchange transfers and deposits have recently been negative and BTC exchange balances have declined over the past week as a result. This implies overall increasing demand for Bitcoin.

Most of those net outflows occurred from wallet sizes in excess of 1 mn USD which implies that the majority of net outflows from exchanges and thus net demand originates from larger (institutional) investors.

At the same time, whale deposits to exchanges have clearly levelled off last week in a sign of decreasing selling pressure from large entities. Whales are defined as network entities (cluster of addresses) that hold at least 1,000 BTC. Long-term holders have also reduced their transfers to exchanges significantly over the past 2 weeks and long-term holder supply has stabilized somewhat.

Meanwhile, BTC miners continue selling into their reserves as BTC miner balances have reached their lowest level since July 2021. It seems as if BTC miners are trying to prop up their cash reserves ahead of the Halving which is less than 10000 blocks away and expected to happen around the 20th of April.

The overall BTC network hash rate continues to hover near the all-time high reached on the 2nd of February and total miner revenues have declined towards the block subsidy as transaction demand has somewhat normalized.

Futures, Options & Perpetuals

BTC futures open interest has increased significantly last week with an increase of around +32k BTC of which CME accounted for around +20.7k BTC. Perpetual open interest also increased by around +12k BTC last week.

As a result, the 3-months annualized BTC futures also increased to around 11.0% p.a. and the BTC perpetual funding rate increased to the highest level since January 12th across major derivatives exchanges.

BTC options’ open interest also increased significantly last week by around +26k BTC. Interestingly enough, the Put-call open interest increased throughout the week implying that option traders built up downside protections throughout the week as well. Put-call volume ratios also increased which is consistent with this observation.

However, the 25-delta BTC option skew for all major expiries has declined significantly over the past week in favour of call options, implying renewed interest for upside calls. At the same time, there was a reversal in implied volatilities to the upside, especially in earlier expiries.


Bottom Line

• Bitcoin closes at highest price since December 2021 as cryptoassets recover strongly on the back of positive net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs and rising futures open interest

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has also recovered strongly and signals bullish sentiment

• Global Bitcoin ETP flows top +1 bn USD last week as monthly flows into top 2 US products were best in US ETF history

Disclaimer

Important Information

The information provided in this material is for informative purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or solicitation to conclude a transaction. This document (which may be in the form of a blogpost, research article, marketing brochure, press release, social media post, blog post, broadcast communication or similar instrument – we refer to this category of communications generally as a “document” for purposes of this disclaimer) is issued by ETC Issuance GmbH (the “issuer”), a limited company incorporated under the laws of Germany, having its corporate domicile in Germany. This document has been prepared in accordance with applicable laws and regulations (including those relating to financial promotions). If you are considering investing in any securities issued by ETC Group, including any securities described in this document, you should check with your broker or bank that securities issued by ETC Group are available in your jurisdiction and suitable for your investment profile.

Exchange-traded commodities/cryptocurrencies, or ETPs, are a highly volatile asset and performance is unpredictable. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The market price of ETPs will vary and they do not offer a fixed income. The value of any investment in ETPs may be affected by exchange rate and underlying price movements. This document may contain forward-looking statements including statements regarding ETC Group’s belief or current expectations with regards to the performance of certain asset classes. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that such statements will be accurate and actual results could differ materially. Therefore, you must not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. This document does not constitute investment advice nor an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any product or make any investment. An investment in an ETC that is linked to cryptocurrency, such as those offered by ETC Group, is dependent on the performance of the underlying cryptocurrency, less costs, but it is not expected to match that performance precisely. ETPs involve numerous risks including, among others, general market risks relating to underlying adverse price movements and currency, liquidity, operational, legal, and regulatory risks.

For more details and the full disclaimer

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HODL fyller sex år

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HODL fyller sex år! 🎉 21Shares var den första emittenten att erbjuda en fysisk krypto-ETP-korg i Europa. Denna lanserades när BTC handlades till 4 400 $. Idag svävar den runt $91 000! Upptäck mer om HODL (eller 21XH som den också kallas beroende på börs) och dess resa.

HODL fyller sex år! 🎉 21Shares var den första emittenten att erbjuda en fysisk krypto-ETP-korg i Europa. Denna lanserades när BTC handlades till 4 400 $. Idag svävar den runt $91 000! Upptäck mer om HODL (eller 21XH som den också kallas beroende på börs) och dess resa.

Handla 21XH ETP

21Shares Crypto Basket Index ETP (21XH ETP) är en europeisk börshandlad kryptovaluta. Denna ETP handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Euronext Amsterdam.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETP genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnetAktieinvest och Avanza.

Friskrivningsklausul

Detta dokument är inte ett erbjudande att sälja eller en uppmaning till ett erbjudande att köpa eller teckna värdepapper i 21Shares AG i någon jurisdiktion. Exklusivt för potentiella investerare i alla EES-medlemsstater som har implementerat Prospektförordningen (EU) 2017/1129, görs Emittentens Grundprospekt (EU) tillgängligt på Emittentens webbplats under www.21Shares.com.

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BT27 ETF köper italienska statsobligationer med förfall 2027

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Amundi Fixed Maturity 2027 Italy BTP Government Bond UCITS ETF Dist (BT27 ETF) med ISIN LU2780872128, försöker spåra FTSE Italy Government 2027 Maturity index. FTSE Italy Government 2027 Maturity Index följer italienska statsobligationer. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2027) i indexet. Betyg: BBB. Löptid: december 2027 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Amundi Fixed Maturity 2027 Italy BTP Government Bond UCITS ETF Dist (BT27 ETF) med ISIN LU2780872128, försöker spåra FTSE Italy Government 2027 Maturity index. FTSE Italy Government 2027 Maturity Index följer italienska statsobligationer. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2027) i indexet. Betyg: BBB. Löptid: december 2027 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,09 % p.a. Amundi Fixed Maturity 2027 Italy BTP Government Bond UCITS ETF Dist är den enda ETF som följer FTSE Italy Government 2027 Maturity index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Ränteintäkterna (kuponger) i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (halvårsvis).

Denna ETF lanserades den 25 april 2024 och har sin hemvist i Luxemburg.

Investeringsmål

Amundi Fixed Maturity 2027 Italy BTP Government Bond UCITS ETF Dist försöker replikera, så nära som möjligt, utvecklingen av FTSE Italy Government 2027 Maturity Index (”Indexet”) oavsett om trenden är stigande eller fallande, och att minimera tracking error mellan delfondens nettotillgångsvärde och indexets utveckling. Den förväntade nivån av tracking error under normala marknadsförhållanden anges i delfondens prospekt. Indexet är ett totalavkastningsindex: de kuponger som betalas av indexbeståndsdelarna ingår i indexavkastningen.

Handla BT27 ETF

Amundi Fixed Maturity 2027 Italy BTP Government Bond UCITS ETF Dist (BT27 ETF) är en börshandlad fond (ETF) som handlas på Borsa Italiana.

Borsa Italiana är en marknad som få svenska banker och nätmäklare erbjuder access till, men DEGIRO gör det.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
Borsa ItalianaEURBT27

Största innehav

Denna fond använder fysisk replikering för att spåra indexets prestanda.

NamnValutaVikt %Sektor
ITALIAN REPUB BTPS 6.5% 01NOV27EUR22,18 %Statsobligationer
REPUBLIC OF I BTPS 0.95% 15SEP27EUR14,44 %Statsobligationer
ITALIAN REPUB BTPS 2.2% 01JUN27EUR14,04 %Statsobligationer
REPUBLIC OF I BTPS 0.85% 15JAN27EUR13,47 %Statsobligationer
ITALIAN REPUB BTPS 2.05% 01AUG27EUR13,42 %Statsobligationer
REPUBLIC OF I BTPS 2.65% 01DEC27EUR12,73 %Statsobligationer
REPUBLIC OF I BTPS 1.1% 01APR27EUR9,72 %Statsobligationer

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WisdomTree lanserar Physical XRP ETP

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Ny ETP kompletterar WisdomTrees fysiskt stödda kryptosortiment i Europa. WisdomTree, en global finansiell innovatör, tillkännagav idag lanseringen av sin senaste kryptovaluta börshandlade produkt (ETP). WisdomTree Physical XRP (XRPW) ETP är noterat på Deutsche Börse Xetra, Swiss Stock Exchange SIX och Euronext-börserna i Paris och Amsterdam med en förvaltningskostnadskvot på 0,50 %, vilket representerar den lägsta prissatta ETP i Europa som ger exponering mot XRP.

Ny ETP kompletterar WisdomTrees fysiskt stödda kryptosortiment i Europa. WisdomTree, en global finansiell innovatör, tillkännagav idag lanseringen av sin senaste börshandlade kryptovaluta (ETP). WisdomTree Physical XRP (XRPW) ETP är noterat på Deutsche Börse Xetra, Swiss Stock Exchange SIX och Euronext-börserna i Paris och Amsterdam med en förvaltningskostnadskvot på 0,50 %, vilket representerar den lägsta prissatta ETP i Europa som ger exponering mot XRP.

WisdomTree Physical XRP ETP är utformad för att erbjuda investerare ett enkelt, säkert och kostnadseffektivt sätt att få exponering för priset på XRP. ETPen stöds till 100 % av XRP, vilket ger exponering mot spotpriset för XRP genom en struktur av institutionell kvalitet. Investerare drar också nytta av en modell med dubbel depå med reglerade förvaringsinstitut och med de underliggande tillgångarna professionellt säkrade i kylförvaring.

XRP är en digital tillgång inbyggd i XRP Ledger (XRPL), en öppen källkod, behörighetslös och decentraliserad blockkedja. XRPL använder en Proof-of-Association (PoA) konsensusmekanism som drivs av universitet, börser, företag och individer för att validera transaktioner. Detta system är mer effektivt att köra än Proof-of-Work (PoW), eftersom det kräver färre hårdvaruresurser och förbrukar mindre energi. Byggt 2012, specifikt för betalningar, kan XRP lösa transaktioner på huvudboken på 3-5 sekunder och designades för att vara ett snabbare och mer hållbart alternativ till Bitcoin.

XRP kan skickas direkt utan en central mellanhand, vilket gör det till ett bekvämt instrument för att snabbt och effektivt överbrygga två olika valutor. Det utbyts fritt på den öppna marknaden och används i den verkliga världen för att möjliggöra gränsöverskridande betalningar och mikrotransaktioner.

Dovile Silenskyte, direktör, Digital Assets Research, WisdomTree, sa: ”Med risk-on-sentimentbyggande kan altcoinexponeringar som XRP överträffa en vanlig bitcoin- och eterallokering. XRP kan sitta bredvid dessa megacaps i en portfölj med flera tillgångar och minska investerarnas exponering mot en enda token. Kryptovalutor representerar mer än 1 % av marknadsportföljen och bör därför vara en del av en väl avrundad investeringsstrategi. Som en tillgångsklass med låg korrelation till traditionella tillgångsklasser kan krypto bidra till att öka diversifieringen och potentiellt förbättra riskjusterad avkastning i en portfölj med flera tillgångar.”

WisdomTree var den första etablerade ETP-emittenten som försåg europeiska investerare med fysiskt uppbackad kryptoexponering av institutionell kvalitet efter lanseringen av WisdomTree Physical Bitcoin i december 2019. Den har nu ett genomtänkt urval av nio fysiskt stödda krypto-ETP, vilket ger europeiska investerare bekväm tillgång till krypto. i ett välbekant ETP-omslag.

WisdomTree har mer än 1,1 miljarder USD i tillgångar under förvaltning över sina krypto-ETPer av institutionell kvalitet, med nettoinflöden på 191 miljoner USD 2024. Fysiskt stödda krypto-ETPer från WisdomTree ger investerare en enkel, säker och låg kostnadssätt att få exponering för en rad kryptovalutor inklusive Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, Cardano, Polkadot, tre diversifierade kryptokorgar och nu XRP. WisdomTrees kryptovaluta ETP-sortiment är bland de mest konkurrenskraftiga priserna i Europa.

Alexis Marinof, Europachef, WisdomTree, sa: ”Denna nya lansering kompletterar vår befintliga uppsättning av fysiskt stödda kryptovaluta-ETP, vilket ger investerare en annan lösning för att förbättra sina portföljer med flera tillgångar. Kryptovaluta-ETP representerar ett effektivt sätt att hålla investerare inom ett reglerat ramverk och håller på att bli det föredragna verktyget för att komma åt kryptovalutor. WisdomTree utnyttjar 20 års expertis i att tillhandahålla och hantera fysiskt stödda ETPer för institutionella investerare. Med över 100 miljarder USD i tillgångar under förvaltning globalt över ETFer och ETPer kan investerare i våra kryptovaluta ETPer dra nytta av vår globala räckvidd, skala och resurser.”

WisdomTrees europeiska krypto-ETP är tillgängliga för försäljning i Österrike, Belgien, Danmark, Finland, Frankrike, Tyskland, Italien, Irland, Luxemburg, Polen, Nederländerna, Norge, Spanien, Sverige och Schweiz. WisdomTree Physical Bitcoin och WisdomTree Physical Ethereum är också tillgängliga för försäljning i Storbritannien.

Produktinformation

ETP namnMERBörsValutaKortnamnISIN
WisdomTree Physical XRP0.50%SIXUSDXRPWGB00BRXHQ425
0.50%SIXCHFXRPWGB00BRXHQ425
0.50%Börse XetraEURWXRPGB00BRXHQ425
0.50%Euronext AmsterdamUSDXRPWGB00BRXHQ425
0.50%Euronext ParisEURWXRPGB00BRXHQ425

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