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ETC Group Crypto Market Compass #6 2024

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ETC Group Crypto Market Compass #6 2024 Cryptoassets continued to recover despite a more hawkish guidance by the Fed Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has stabilized and remains slightly bearish

• Cryptoassets continued to recover despite a more hawkish guidance by the Fed

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has stabilized and remains slightly bearish

• Despite the supposedly strong non-farm payrolls report last Friday, we see increasing evidence of a weakening labour market in the US


Chart of the Week

Performance

Last week, cryptoassets continued to recover on the back of positive net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs and an improving cryptoasset sentiment.

Nonetheless, these positive developments were somewhat overshadowed by a more hawkish guidance by the Fed that guided markets towards later-than-expected interest rate cuts.

Before the FOMC meeting started on Tuesday last week, rates traders had expected the rate cutting cycle to commence in March, which was priced out to May 2024 after the FOMC meeting. This stance was somewhat confirmed with the latest non-farm payrolls jobs numbers on Friday that were significantly above consensus expectations, and which implied that the US labour market was still running hot.

This implied a “higher for longer” interest rate expectation which also led to a significant increase in long-term Treasury yields.

All of this happened during a week where another US regional bank’s stock price unexpectedly sold off on account of high loan loss provisions and dividend cuts due to its high US commercial real estate loan exposure. Systemic risks appear to be resurfacing after a Japanese bank with significant US commercial real estate exposure also unexpectedly sold off last week.

A “higher for longer” stance of monetary policy by the Fed appears to induce renewed weakness in the (regional) banking system which is why we expect that the Fed will most-likely not be able to prolong its current pause in the interest rate cycle for much longer before commencing the rate cutting cycle.

Moreover, although the latest jobs report appears to confirm the Fed’s more hawkish stance at first sight, a view beneath the strong headline numbers reveals that most of the job gains were related to increases in multiple job holders and part-time workers. In addition, leading labour market indicators such as average hours worked have declined to levels last seen during the Covid recession.

So, while overall payrolls are increasing, it appears as if companies are reluctant to increase full-time jobs as they are already reducing working hours. This is rather a sign of a weakening labour market.

What does that mean for Bitcoin and cryptoassets?

We still measure a significant dominance of global growth expectations for Bitcoin – around 55% of performance variations in the price of Bitcoin could be explained by changes in global growth expectations over the past 6 months.

However, that dominance has been gradually receding in favour of an increasing relevance of monetary policy and US Dollar changes which have accounted for 22% and 13%, respectively, in the variation in the price of Bitcoin over the past 6 months.

Based on these calculations, we expect that any weakness in global growth expectations due to a US recession could affect Bitcoin negatively at first but could also provide a tailwind as a second order effect due to a reversal in monetary policy expectations and a weaker US Dollar.

This would be similar to the performance patterns that we observed during the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023. We could see a revival of that since Bitcoin is one of the few counterparty risk-free assets and systemic risks in the traditional banking system could induce some kind of “flight-to-safety” into Bitcoin.

A reversal in monetary policy is most likely sparked by either a systemic weakness in the banking system or a significant increase in the unemployment rate over the coming months.

In our last report, we stated that we expected the influence of macro factors on Bitcoin & Cryptoassets to reassert itself over the coming weeks. This expectation already seems to materialize with the latest macro developments.

In general, among the top 10 crypto assets, Chainlink, TRON, and Ethereum were the relative outperformers.

Chainlink’s recent partnership with China’s national Blockchain Services Network, which utilizes Chainlink’s oracle network, has likely boosted investor confidence and contributed to the recent price increase.

Nonetheless, altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin was relatively weak, with only 25% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis.

Sentiment

Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has stabilized and remains slightly bearish.

At the moment, only 5 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.

Compared to last week, we saw major reversals to the upside in BTC exchange inflows and the crypto dispersion index. The former implies lower exchange in flows which tends to be bullish and the latter implies increasing performance dispersion among cryptoassets which also tends to be a positive signal.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in ”Greed” territory as of this morning.

Meanwhile, our own measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) has recently increased as well albeit from lower levels. Overall, this is signalling a rather neutral sentiment in traditional financial markets.

As mentioned before, performance dispersion among cryptoassets has remained relatively high.

In general, high-performance dispersion among cryptoassets implies that correlations among cryptoassets have decreased, which means that cryptoassets are trading more on coin-specific factors and that diversification among cryptoassets is high.

At the same time, altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin was still relatively low, with no clear outperformance of Ethereum vis-à-vis Bitcoin. Viewed more broadly, only 25% of our tracked altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin on a weekly basis.

In general, low altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of low risk appetite within cryptoasset markets.

Fund Flows

Overall, we saw net fund inflows in the amount of +698.9 mn USD (week ending Friday) based on Bloomberg data across all types of cryptoassets.

Global Bitcoin ETPs saw a reversal compared to last week with significant net inflows of +697.3 mn USD of which +819 mn (net) were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued to see net outflows of around -927 mn USD last week. This was more than offset by net inflows into other US spot Bitcoin ETFs that were able to attract +1,746 mn USD in net inflows. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) took in +883 mn USD last week and surpassed 3 bn USD in AuM.

On a positive note, the outflows from GBTC continued to slow down over the past 5 trading days and last Friday saw the lowest daily net outflow since trading launch on the 11/01.

Note that some fund flows data for US major issuers are still lacking in the abovementioned numbers due to T+2 settlement.

Apart from Bitcoin, we saw comparatively small flows into other cryptoassets last week.

Outflows from global Ethereum ETPs of around -22.2 mn USD were somewhat offset by inflows into other altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum that managed to attract +23.6 mn USD last week.

Thematic & basket crypto ETPs were more or less unchanged, with only +0.2 mn USD in net inflows, based on our calculations.

Besides, the beta of global crypto hedge funds to Bitcoin over the last 20 trading still remains low at below 0.8, implying that global crypto hedge funds still remain under-exposed to Bitcoin market risks. It appears as if crypto hedge funds are still waiting on the sidelines for new catalysts.

On-Chain Data

Core on-chain for Bitcoin remain somewhat mixed. For instance, active addresses as well as new addresses remain relatively low and also the number of addresses with non-zero balances has come off the recent highs. The same is true for the number of transactions on the core Bitcoin blockchain.

This happens amid a still relatively high count of inscriptions on the Bitcoin blockchain, implying that “pure” monetary transactions have been decreasing recently. The transaction count share of inscriptions had just recently reached an all-time high of 72% on the 28/01.

The share of inscriptions has reached around 61% this week as well. So, the share of inscriptions in Bitcoin transactions remains relatively high which is frequently a subject of discussion among the Bitcoin community. That being said, median transactions fees have declined significantly from their recent high from mid-December 2023 as have the share of fees in total BTC miner revenue which was between 5% and 15% last week.

Nonetheless, BTC miners continued to sell into their reserves last week which exerts some downward pressure on prices. Aggregate BTC miner reserves have reached the lowest level since July 2021.

However, in the grand scheme of overall exchange inflows, these exchange inflows are still comparatively small. Overall, exchange inflows remain very much dominated by ETF flows and whale deposits to exchanges (especially to Coinbase exchange).

All in all, net exchange transfers and deposits have recently been negative and BTC exchange balances have declined over the past week as a result. This implies overall increasing demand for Bitcoin. However, aggregate exchange balances have not reclaimed their multiyear lows yet.

In contrast, Ethereum exchange balances continue to drift lower and make fresh multiyear lows on a daily basis. This should provide a tailwind for the relative performance of Ethereum vis-à-vis Bitcoin.

Futures, Options & Perpetuals

BTC futures open interest declined somewhat last week while perpetual open interest moved sideways. There were no significant futures long or short liquidations compared to the week prior.

The 3-months annualized BTC futures basis declined somewhat to around 9.4% p.a. but BTC perpetual funding rates remained positive throughout the week across major derivatives exchanges.

BTC options’ open interest also remained relatively stable last week. Put-call open interest remains relatively low implying that most option traders are still engaged in calls and have a long bias. Put-call volume ratios also remained relatively low compared to the prior week implying that downside hedging activity has clearly levelled off.

That being said, BTC option traders have recently started to bid up the skew in favour of put options, implying renewed interest for downside hedges. At the time of writing delta-equivalent 1-month BTC put options have a 2%-points higher implied volatility than call options.

However, the declining trend in implied volatilities since early January 2024 also continued last week. At the time of writing, BTC ATM option implied volatility for 1-month options is around 39.6% which is significantly lower than the high of 71% reached on 07/01/2024.


Bottom Line


• Cryptoassets continued to recover despite a more hawkish guidance by the Fed

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has stabilized and remains slightly bearish

• Despite the supposedly strong non-farm payrolls report last Friday, we see increasing evidence of a weakening labour market in the US

GENERAL DISCLAIMER

The information provided in this advertising material is for informative purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or solicitation to conclude a transaction.

This document (which may be in the form of a press release, social media post, blog post, broadcast communication or similar instrument – we refer to this category of communications generally as a “document” for purposes of this disclaimer) is issued by ETC Issuance GmbH (the “issuer”), a limited company incorporated under the laws of the Germany. This document has been prepared in accordance with applicable laws and regulations (including those relating to financial promotions). If you are considering investing in any securities issued by ETC Group, including any securities described in this document, you should check with your broker or bank that securities issued by ETC Group are available in your jurisdiction and suitable for your investment profile.

Exchange-traded commodities/cryptocurrencies, or ETCs, are a highly volatile asset and performance is unpredictable. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The market price of ETCs will vary and they do not offer a fixed income. The value of any investment in ETCs may be affected by exchange rate and underlying price movements. This document may contain forward looking statements including statements regarding ETC Group’s belief or current expectations with regards to the performance of certain asset classes. Forward looking statements are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that such statements will be accurate and actual results could differ materially. Therefore, you must not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

This document does not constitute investment advice nor an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any product or make any investment. An investment in an ETC that is linked to cryptocurrency, such as those offered by ETC Group, is dependent on the performance of the underlying cryptocurrency, less costs, but it is not expected to match that performance precisely. ETCs involve numerous risks including among others, general market risks relating to underlying adverse price movements and currency, liquidity, operational, legal and regulatory risks.

ETC Issuance GmbH, incorporated under the laws of Germany, is the issuer of any securities described in this document, under the base prospectus dated 23 November 2021, and previously the the base prospectus dated 14th January 2021 and prospectus dated 4 June 2020,, and various sets of final terms (in relation to BTCE, ZETH and other series of securities issued under that base prospectus), in each case as supplemented from time to time, and approved by BaFin. Any decision to invest in securities offered by ETC Group (including products and amounts) should take into consideration your specific circumstances after seeking independent investment, tax and legal advice. You should also read the latest version of the prospectus and/or base prospectus before investing and in particular, refer to the section entitled ‘Risk Factors’ for further details of risks associated with an investment. These prospectuses and other documents are available under the “Resources” section at etc-group.com. When visiting this website, you will need to self-certify as to your jurisdiction and investor type in order to access these documents, and in so doing you may be subject to other disclaimers and important information.

IF YOU ARE IN THE UK, US, OR CANADA

Information contained in this document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering in the United States or Canada, or any state, province or territory thereof, where neither the issuer nor its products are authorised or registered for distribution or sale and where no prospectus of the issuer has been filed with any securities regulator. Neither this document nor information in it should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

PUBLICATIONS & SOCIAL MEDIA DISCLOSURE

Social media posts (including, but not limited to, LinkedIn and Twitter) of ETC Group and its subsidiaries (“Social Media”) are not, and should not be considered to be recommendations, solicitations or offers by ETC Group or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or other assets or provide any investment advice or service. ETC Group makes all reasonable efforts to ensure that the information contained on Social Media is accurate and reliable; however, errors sometimes occur. You should note that the materials on Social Media are provided “as is” without any express or implied warranties. ETC Group does not warrant or represent that the materials on Social Media are accurate, valid, timely or complete.

RISKS OF CRYPTOCURRENCIES

Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile assets and are known for their extreme fluctuations in prices. While there is potential for significant gains, you are at risk of losing parts or your entire capital invested. The value of the ETCs is affected by the price of its underlying cryptocurrency. The price of cryptocurrencies can fluctuate widely and, for example, may be impacted by global and regional political, economic or financial events, regulatory events or statements by regulators, investment trading, hedging or other activities by a wide range of market participants, forks in underlying protocols, disruptions to the infrastructure or means by which crypto assets are produced, distributed, stored and traded. The price of cryptocurrencies may also change due to shifting investor confidence in future outlook of the asset class. Characteristics of cryptocurrencies and divergence of applicable regulatory standards create the potential for market abuse and could lead to high price volatility. Amounts received by Bondholders (i) upon redemption of the Bonds in USD, in cases where Bondholders are prevented from receiving cryptocurrency for legal or regulatory reasons; or (ii) upon sale on the stock exchange depend on the price performance of the relevant cryptocurrency and available liquidity.

For a detailed overview of risks associated with cryptocurrencies and specifically associated with the ETCs, please refer to the prospectus and base prospectus available at the issuer’s website at www.etc-group.com.

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Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis

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Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
  • Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
  • Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
  • What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?

Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has amassed a staggering $43 billion in Bitcoin, positioning itself at the forefront of the corporate “reserve race.” Under the leadership of Bitcoin maximalist Michael Saylor, the company now boasts an $84 billion market cap. But with such an aggressive strategy, how sustainable is its approach—and what risks lie ahead? We break it down in today’s analysis.

Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?

A drop below $72,000 could flush longs, while a breakout above $90,000 may squeeze shorts. One key positive indicator is that Bitcoin continues to print higher lows since March 10, which preserves a bullish market structure in our view. Dive into our technical analysis.

What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?

Imagine owning a slice of a skyscraper or a piece of fine art with just a few clicks. Tokenization, the act of converting ownership rights to real-world assets (RWAs) into tradable tokens, has surpassed $10 billion in on-chain value, unlocking global 24/7 access to once-exclusive markets with liquidity, efficiency, and yield. Find out how it works.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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BSE0 ETF köper bara företagsobligationer med förfall 2030

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Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc (BSE0 ETF) med ISIN IE000I25S1V5, försöker följa Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened-index. Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2030) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2030 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc (BSE0 ETF) med ISIN IE000I25S1V5, försöker följa Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened-index. Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2030) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2030 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,10 % p.a. Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc är den billigaste och största ETF som följer Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 6 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 18 juni 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Produktbeskrivning

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF Acc syftar till att ge den totala avkastningen för Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index (”Referensindexet”), minus avgifternas inverkan. Fonden har en fast löptid och kommer att upphöra på Förfallodagen.

Referensindexet är utformat för att återspegla resultatet för EUR-denominerade, investeringsklassade, fast ränta, skattepliktiga skuldebrev emitterade av företagsemittenter. För att vara berättigade till inkludering måste företagsvärdepapper ha minst 300 miljoner euro i nominellt utestående belopp och en effektiv löptid på eller mellan 1 januari 2030 och 31 december 2030.

Värdepapper är uteslutna om emittenter: 1) är inblandade i kontroversiella vapen, handeldvapen, militära kontrakt, oljesand, termiskt kol eller tobak; 2) inte har en kontroversnivå enligt definitionen av Sustainalytics eller har en Sustainalytics-kontroversnivå högre än 4; 3) anses inte följa principerna i FN:s Global Compact; eller 4) kommer från tillväxtmarknader.

Portföljförvaltarna strävar efter att uppnå fondens mål genom att tillämpa en urvalsstrategi, som inkluderar användning av kvantitativ analys, för att välja en andel av värdepapperen från referensindexet som representerar hela indexets egenskaper, med hjälp av faktorer som index- vägd genomsnittlig varaktighet, industrisektorer, landvikter och kreditkvalitet. När en företagsobligation som innehas av fonden når förfallodag kommer kontanterna som fonden tar emot att användas för att investera i kortfristiga EUR-denominerade skulder.

ETFen förvaltas passivt.

En investering i denna fond är ett förvärv av andelar i en passivt förvaltad indexföljande fond snarare än i de underliggande tillgångarna som ägs av fonden.

Förfallodag: andra onsdagen i december 2026 eller sådant annat datum som bestäms av styrelseledamöterna och meddelas aktieägaren

Handla BSE0 ETF

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc (BSE0 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
XETRAEURBSE0

Största innehav

NamnCUSIPISINKupongräntaVikt %
Fresenius SE & Co KGaA 5.125% 05/10/30D2R9K1AL3XS26987136955.1252.55%
Mercedes-Benz Group AG 2.375% 22/05/30D1668RZW0DE000A289XG82.3752.19%
Akzo Nobel NV 1.625% 14/04/30N01803YV6XS21565982811.6252.08%
Eni SpA 0.625% 23/01/30T3666JJV9XS21073154700.6251.98%
Prologis International Funding II 2.375% 14/11/30L7763MAD2XS19046903412.3751.78%
REWE International Finance BV 4.875% 13/09/30N74119AA1XS26798981844.8751.65%
CaixaBank SA 4.25% 06/09/30E2R193R97XS26768144994.2501.64%
Verizon Communications Inc 4.25% 31/10/30XS25508811434.2501.64%
Liberty Mutual Group Inc 4.625% 02/12/30U52932BR7XS25616473684.6251.62%
AXA SA 3.75% 12/10/30F0609NBG2XS25372511703.7501.60%

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US regulatory shift provides a beacon for optimism

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Since President Trump appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chair two months ago, many investigations into crypto businesses have been dropped, as the SEC moves away from regulation by enforcement and works to create a framework for digital assets. As regulations become clearer and news flow turns more positive, crypto prices—which dropped sharply this week—should begin to better reflect the new regulatory landscape in the US.

Since President Trump appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chair two months ago, many investigations into crypto businesses have been dropped, as the SEC moves away from regulation by enforcement and works to create a framework for digital assets. As regulations become clearer and news flow turns more positive, crypto prices—which dropped sharply this week—should begin to better reflect the new regulatory landscape in the US.

We believe this regulatory shift could ultimately help trigger the next leg of the current bull run, as investors better understand the significance of regulatory clarity and seek to acquire bitcoin and altcoins at what we believe are currently very favorable levels.

Market Highlights

SEC Dismisses Crypto Enforcement Actions

The SEC dropped its enforcement actions against crypto-related companies Kraken, Consensys, and Cumberland DRW.

This indicates a shift in SEC’s regulatory approach, favoring clearer guidelines over enforcement actions. Such a pivot could foster a more predictable environment, encouraging innovation within the sector.

Banks to Engage in Crypto Activities

The FDIC has rescinded previous guidelines which prevented financial institutions from engaging with crypto activities without prior sign-off.

By removing bureaucratic hurdles, banks may more readily offer crypto-related services, potentially leading to broader adoption and integration of digital assets.

Bitcoin ETFs Inflow Streak Surpassed $1 Billion

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a 10-day inflow streak exceeding $1 billion marking the longest such streak in 2025.

This underscores growing institutional and retail investor confidence in Bitcoin as an asset class that helps increase market stability and possibly paving the way for the approval of other crypto-based financial products.

Market Metrics

All NCITM constituents had negative performance last week, with XRP (-10.8%) and UNI (-10.7%) seeing the steepest declines. ETH also experienced a sharp drop (-9.1%), contributing to NCITM’s underperformance relative to BTC (-2.9%). The NCITM -4.2% decline reflects a broader risk-off sentiment in the crypto market, as investors reassess their positions amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.

NCITM (-4.2%) extended its underperformance last week, deepening year-to-date losses. Traditional indices like the S&P 500 (-1.5%) and Nasdaq 100 (-2.4%) saw smaller declines. The gap between crypto and other risk assets continues to widen, while gold has emerged as the top performer in 2025, gaining nearly 20% amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. This trend highlights a growing risk-off sentiment, with investors shifting toward defensive assets and away from high-volatility investments.

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