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ETC Group Crypto Market Compass #35 2024

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Last week, cryptoassets were supported by clear signals for a pivot in Fed monetary policy following dovish remarks by Fed chairman Powell at the recent central bank symposium in Jackson Hole.

• Last week, cryptoassets were supported by clear signals for a pivot in Fed monetary policy following dovish remarks by Fed chairman Powell at the recent central bank symposium in Jackson Hole.

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” signals a neutral sentiment at the moment.

• Fed Funds Futures already price in slightly more than 9 cuts à 25 bps each and a terminal rate of 3% which will be reached by the end of 2025, ie markets are already anticipating significant cuts to the Fed Funds target rate.

Editorial Note: ETC Group has been acquired by Bitwise Asset Management as of the 16th of August 2024. Find out more here.


Chart of the Week

Performance

Last week, cryptoassets were supported by clear signals for a pivot in Fed monetary policy following dovish remarks by Fed chairman Powell at the recent central bank symposium in Jackson Hole.

Powell’s comments were dovish across the board and essentially signalled that the Fed can no longer tolerate a deterioration in labour market conditions in favour of maintain price stability, ie lowering inflation. More specifically, the following remarks by Powell were interpreted by markets as a clear signal towards an imminent shift in monetary policy and rate cuts in September:

“The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

Powell’s remarks essentially confirmed what Fed Funds Futures markets have already been anticipating following the capitulation event in early August 2024 – initial rate cuts starting in September. The latest payroll benchmark downward revisions which suggested that past payroll growth was much lower than previously estimated, made the case for rate cuts in September even stronger.

At the time of writing, Fed Funds Futures already price in slightly more than 9 cuts à 25 bps each and a terminal rate of 3% which will be reached by the end of 2025. So, markets are already anticipating significant cuts to the Fed Funds target rate (Chart-of-the-Week).

The big question is whether Fed interest rate cuts could 1. be faster than anticipated, and 2. deeper than anticipated amid an increasingly likely US recession over the coming months?

Only in this kind of scenario, Fed cuts could continue to remain a significant tailwind for markets.

The Fed is essentially following the footsteps of other major central banks such as the ECB or Bank of England that have already commenced their interest rate cutting cycle.

In this context, it is important to highlight that global money supply has recently reached a new all-time high already. Historically speaking, periods of global money supply expansion tend to be bullish for Bitcoin and cryptoassets.

Another important development was the withdrawal of RFK Jr. from the US presidential elections and his personal endorsement of Donald Trump. This has increased the odds of Trump winning the presidency which is generally regarded as a net positive outcome for crypto markets.

However, at the time of writing, betting markets still see Harris in the lead with 50.4% against 47.8% for Trump according to electionbettingodds.com which aggregates betting odds across different providers.

Last week’s recovery in crypto markets was also supported by an acceleration in net inflows into global crypto ETPs that attracted almost 700 mn USD.

However, there was a large divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum ETP flows which led to a significant underperformance of Ethereum vis-à-vis Bitcoin last week. Risk appetite in altcoins was also somewhat muted due to the arrest of Telegram’s founder Pavel Durov in Paris over the weekend, which led to a strong underperformance of Telegram’s Open Network token TON.

That being said, overall altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin remained relatively resilient despite the abovementioned market developments.

In general, among the top 10 crypto assets, Avalanche, TRON, and Cardano were the relative outperformers.

Overall, altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin remained resilient lately, with 70% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis, despite a significant underperformance of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin.

Sentiment

Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” signals a neutral level of sentiment at the moment.

At the moment, 10 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.

Last week, there were significant reversals to the upside in the Altseason index and Crypto Fear & Greed Index.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently signals a “Greed” level of sentiment as of this morning.

Performance dispersion among cryptoassets still remains at low levels. This means that altcoins are still very much correlated with the performance of Bitcoin.

Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin continued to stay high, with 70% of our tracked altcoins outperforming Bitcoin on a weekly basis. However, Ethereum significantly underperformed Bitcoin last week.

In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets and the latest altcoin outperformance signals increasing appetite for risk at the moment.

Meanwhile, sentiment in traditional financial markets as measured by our in-house measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) remains at neutral levels after having recovered sharply from the very low levels observed in early August.

Fund Flows

Fund flows into global crypto ETPs accelerated significantly last week.

Global crypto ETPs saw around +688.5 mn USD in net inflows across all types of cryptoassets which is a significant reversal from the -4.2 mn USD in outflows observed the week prior.

Global Bitcoin ETPs saw significant net inflows of +661.8 mn USD last week, of which +437.3 mn USD in net inflows were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone.

Last week also saw a positive reversal in flows into Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs with +132.4 mn USD in net inflows.

Outflows from the ETC Group Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) decelerated somewhat last week with net outflows equivalent to -12.5 mn USD and the ETC Group Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) also saw minor negative net outflows of -0.8 mn USD.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued to see net outflows, with around -86.5 mn USD last week.

Meanwhile, global Ethereum ETPs continued to see net outflows last week of -21.0 mn USD. US Ethereum spot ETFs saw around -44.5 mn USD in net outflows in aggregate. However, this was mostly related to continuing outflows from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) which experienced -118 mn USD in net outflows last week while all other US products have seen +74 mn USD in net inflows.

Hong Kong Ethereum ETFs saw sticky AuM last week (+/- 0 mn USD).

The ETC Group Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) saw minor net outflows last week (-0.8 mn USD) while the ETC Group Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) showed flat AuM last week (+/- 0 mn USD).

In contrast, Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum experienced positive net flows of around +11.7 mn USD last week.

Besides, Thematic & basket crypto ETPs also saw continued net inflows with around +36.0 mn USD last week. The ETC Group MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) saw neither in- nor outflows last week (+/- 0 mn USD).

Meanwhile, global crypto hedge funds increased their market exposure last week to a 3-months high but still remain slightly underweight to Bitcoin. The 20-days rolling beta of global crypto hedge funds’ performance to Bitcoin increased to around 0.92 per yesterday’s close.

On-Chain Data

In general, on-chain metrics imply a strong improvement in relative buying power.

For instance, Bitcoin spot intraday net buying volumes have significantly reversed to the upside. Over the past week, net buying volumes across BTC spot exchanges amounted to around +546 mn USD. They reached a 3-months high on Friday last week due to the acceleration in US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows.

Meanwhile, BTC whales mostly remained on the sidelines. More specifically, BTC whales have transferred around 1.1k BTC off exchange. Whales are defined as network entities that control at least 1,000 BTC. As a result, on-exchange balances have declined over the past week.

It is interesting to highlight that buyers were able to absorb the increasing supply that emanated from continued distribution of bitcoins by the Mt Gox trustee last week who distributed around 1.3k BTC via Bitstamp according to data by Arkham.

Another important market development to highlight was the fee spike on the Bitcoin core network on the 22nd of August as traders rushed to Babylon Labs’ new Bitcoin staking protocol. The staking amount was capped at 1k BTC which is why traders rushed to stake and were willing to pay high transaction fees. As a result, average transaction fees reached 7.2 USD per transaction on the 22nd of August but have now normalised again (0.64 USD per transaction now) according to data provided by Glassnode.

As far as Ethereum is concerned, market sentiment was somewhat burdened by the fact that the Ethereum Foundation distributed around 35k ETH via Kraken and Binance which also contributed to the recent underperformance of Ethereum vis-à-vis Bitcoin.

That being said, overall ETH exchange balances continued to drift lower last week and reached a new multi-year low which still signals an increasing supply deficit for Ethereum.

What is more is that on-chain activity on Ethereum layer 2s such as Base continues to improve significantly. Active addresses on Base have recently surpassed 1 million.

Futures, Options & Perpetuals

Last week, derivatives traders continued to increase their exposure to BTC via futures and perpetuals. More specifically, BTC futures open interest increased by +20k BTC and BTC perpetual open interest increased by +12k BTC.

This happened amid a general ascend in prices which suggests that this increase in open interest was probably related to long open interest. Short liquidations of BTC futures also increased somewhat as bitcoin decisively crossed 60k USD again but remained relatively low compared to the amount of liquidations we saw at the beginning of August.

BTC perpetual funding rates also increased after having remained much of the past week in negative territory.

When the funding rate is positive (negative), long (short) positions periodically pay short (long) positions. A positive funding rate tends to be a sign of bullish sentiment in perpetual futures markets.

The 3-months annualized BTC futures basis rate remained relatively flat compared to the week prior at around 8.7% p.a.

Besides, BTC option open interest increased significantly by around +16k BTC. The significant decline in put-call open interest ratio suggests a net increase in call demand relative puts which is a bullish sign.

was mostly flat last week while the slight decline in put-call open interest ratio suggests a slight net increase in call demand relative puts. The 1-month 25-delta skews for BTC also declined and turned negative suggesting increasing relative demand for call options.

Meanwhile, BTC option implied volatilities mostly went sideways. At the time of writing, implied volatilities of 1-month ATM Bitcoin options are currently at around 51.8% p.a.

Besides, there was a significant development in Ethereum derivatives as well. ETH futures traders apparently piled into short contracts as the 1-month forward contract premium to spot prices on CME Ethereum futures reached the lowest level since December 2022.

This is also consistent with the observation that leveraged funds’ net positioning in Ethereum futures on CME continued to stay near record low levels. At the time of writing, leveraged funds are -30656 contracts net short in Ethereum futures.

These derivative market developments have also likely contributed to the recent underperformance of Ethereum vis-à-vis Bitcoin.


Bottom Line

• Last week, cryptoassets were supported by clear signals for a pivot in Fed monetary policy following dovish remarks by Fed chairman Powell at the recent central bank symposium in Jackson Hole.

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” signals a neutral sentiment at the moment.

• Fed Funds Futures already price in slightly more than 9 cuts à 25 bps each and a terminal rate of 3% which will be reached by the end of 2025, ie markets are already anticipating significant cuts to the Fed Funds target rate.


Read the full report including the Cryptoasset Sentiment Index and full chart show in the appendix on our website.

This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer

© ETC Group 2019-2024 | All rights reserved

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Fonder för att investera i resor och turism

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De flesta konsumenter blir bekanta med rese- och turistbranschen när de tar flyg eller njuter av familjesemestern. Men samma aktiviteter kan också ge investeringsmöjligheter, eftersom många turistföretag är börsnoterade. Självklart finns det börshandlade fonder för att investera i resor och turism.

De flesta konsumenter blir bekanta med rese- och turistbranschen när de tar flyg eller njuter av familjesemestern. Men samma aktiviteter kan också ge investeringsmöjligheter, eftersom många turistföretag är börsnoterade. Självklart finns det börshandlade fonder för att investera i resor och turism.

Nedan listas tre börshandlade fonder med fokus på rese- och turismmarknaden som kan visa sig vara lukrativa för investerare. Det kan också hjälpa engagerade resenärer att bättre förstå landskapet och jaga några reseerbjudanden.

Nedan är några, men inte alla de sektorer som ingår i dessa börshandlade fonder.

Onlineresebyråer

Som med många branscher fortsätter intäkterna att flyttas till internet när det gäller att tillhandahålla rese- och turismtjänster. Aktiemäklare har till stor del ersatts med handelsplattformar på nätet, medan traditionella resebyråer har fått konkurrera med webbsidor som gör det möjligt för konsumenter att handla för låga priser och bekväma scheman.

Ledande onlinereseleverantörer inkluderar börshandlade aktörer som Orbitz, Priceline och Expedia. I synnerhet har Booking Holdings Priceline varit mycket framgångsrika när det gäller att driva trafik till sin webbplats för att boka flyg och lägga bud på billiga, sista minuten-resor.

Kryssningar

Kryssningsrederibranschen har funnits i mer än ett sekel, men är fortfarande inte så utbredd som reseval för många konsumenter. Carnival, världens största kryssningsrederi, har 157 fartyg över hela världen, med en total kapacitet på över 400 000 passagerare per år.

Hotell

Hotellbranschen domineras av börsnoterade företag som Marriott International, Hilton Worldwide och Hyatt Hotels. De har till stor del täckt sin hemmamarknad i USA och växer internationellt. Kedjorna har också drivit förvaltning av fastigheter åt hotellägare, samt timeshare som ger konsumenterna rätt att använda sina fastigheter under en vecka eller mer under varje kalenderår.

Mega Resorts

Stora resortoperatörer kombinerar utvecklingen av hotell med annan underhållning och relaterade bekvämligheter. Börshandlade operatörer i detta område inkluderar Ryman Hospitality Group, som äger resorten Opryland i Nashville och andra fastigheter i Texas, Florida och Maryland. Det är specialiserat på enorma orter som tillåter stora resegrupper att vara värd för kongresser och andra gigantiska sammankomster.

Vail Resorts äger några av de mest kända skidorterna i Colorado och omgivande områden. Detta inkluderar Vail Mountain, Breckenridge och Beaver Creek Resort.

Naturligtvis är The Walt Disney Company specialiserat på barnvänliga nöjesparker, hotell och nöjeskomplex, som Disney World i Florida och Disneyland i Kalifornien.

Kasinon

Hasardspel i Las Vegas-stil växer snabbt i Asien. Macao har vuxit till den största spelmarknaden i världen och har byggt enorma kasinoresorter från Las Vegas-baserade företag som Wynn Resorts och Las Vegas Sands. Båda är börsnoterade företag. Denna tillväxt expanderar till andra delar av Asien, inklusive Singapore, och potentiellt Vietnam och Japan.

Hur lönsam är turistnäringen?

Internationell turism spelar en viktig roll i den amerikanska ekonomin, såväl som världsekonomin. Enligt International Trade Administration bidrar turismen med cirka 2,3 biljoner dollar till USAs BNP varje år och står för 22 procent av landets tjänsteexport.

Vilken är den största hotellkedjan?

Marriott International är världens största hotellkedja både sett till intäkter och vinst. 2024 rapporterade Marriott 25 miljarder dollar i intäkter och 2,4 miljarder dollar i resultat.

Det här är bara några av de många möjligheterna att investera i rese- och turismbranschen över hela världen. Tillväxten, särskilt i tillväxtekonomier, bör fortsätta att överträffa den på mer utvecklade marknader i Nordamerika och Europa. Men precis som med onlinereseutrymmet kommer det alltid att finnas fickor som tar marknadsandelar i alla delar av världen.

Börshandlade fonder för att investera i resor och turism

Denna investeringsguide hjälper dig att välja de bästa ETFernas spårningsindex för resor och turism. För närvarande finns det åtta index som spåras av nio olika ETFer. Den årliga förvaltningskostnaden för dessa börshandlade fonder varierar mellan 0,20 och 0,69 procent.

När man väljer en ETF för resor och turism bör man överväga flera andra faktorer utöver metodiken för det underliggande indexet och prestanda för en ETF. För bättre jämförelse hittar du en lista över alla börshandlade fonder som investerar i resor och turism med information om namn, kortnamn, förvaltningskostnad, utdelningspolicy, hemvist och replikeringsmetod. För ytterligare information om respektive börshandlad fond, klicka på kortnamnet i tabellen nedan.

Handla börshandlade fonder för att investera i resor och turism

Alla dessa tre börshandlade fonder handlas på tyska Xetra. Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i dessa ETFer genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.

Namn
ISIN
KortnamnAvgift
%
Utdelnings-
policy
HemvistReplikerings-
metod
iShares STOXX Europe 600 Travel & Leisure UCITS ETF (DE)
DE000A0H08S0
EXV90,46%UtdelandeTysklandFysisk replikation
HANetf The Travel UCITS ETF
IE00BMFNW783
7RIP0,69%AckumulerandeIrlandFysisk replikation
Invesco European Travel Sector UCITS ETF
IE00B5MJYC95
SC0R0,20%AckumulerandeIrlandSyntetisk replikation

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HWWD ETF en multifaktorfond som köper aktier från hela världen

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HSBC Multi-Factor Worldwide Equity UCITS ETF USD (HWWD ETF) med ISIN IE00BKZGB098, är en aktivt förvaltad ETF. HSBC Multi-Factor Worldwide Equity-index spårar aktier från utvecklade och tillväxtmarknader över hela världen. Titelurvalet baseras på stilfaktorer: Värde, Momentum, Kvalitet, Låg Risk och Storlek.

HSBC Multi-Factor Worldwide Equity UCITS ETF USD (HWWD ETF) med ISIN IE00BKZGB098, är en aktivt förvaltad ETF. HSBC Multi-Factor Worldwide Equity-index spårar aktier från utvecklade och tillväxtmarknader över hela världen. Titelurvalet baseras på stilfaktorer: Värde, Momentum, Kvalitet, Låg Risk och Storlek.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,25 % p.a. HSBC Multi-Factor Worldwide Equity UCITS ETF USD är den billigaste och största ETF som följer HSBC Multi-Factor Worldwide Equity-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (kvartalsvis).

HSBC Multi-Factor Worldwide Equity UCITS ETF USD är en mycket stor ETF med tillgångar på 1 156 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 4 juli 2014 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

Fondens mål är att ge långsiktig kapitaltillväxt.

Investeringspolicy

Under normala marknadsförhållanden kommer fonden att investera minst 90 % av sina tillgångar i aktier i företag av alla storlekar, som är baserade var som helst i världen, inklusive tillväxtmarknader. Investeringsförvaltaren identifierar aktier från MSCI All Country World Index och rangordnar dem från det minst attraktiva till det mest attraktiva baserat på vissa faktorer, såsom värde, kvalitet, momentum, låg risk och storlek. Investeringsförvaltaren kommer sedan kvantitativt att välja aktierna för att skapa en portfölj som maximerar exponeringen mot de högst rankade aktierna samtidigt som fondens riskegenskaper minimeras genom tillämpning av en rad restriktioner såsom sektor- och företagsvikter.

Fonden kan investera i Kina A. -andelar genom Shanghai-Hong Kong och/eller Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect och i CAAPs eller genom fonder. Fonden kan investera upp till 10 % i andra fonder och upp till 10 % i totalavkastningsswappar och kontrakt för skillnad. Fonden förvaltas aktivt och följer inte ett jämförelseindex. Hänsyn kan tas till ett referensriktmärke vid val av investeringar. Fondens referensriktmärke är MSCI All Country World Index (USD) Net. Se prospektet för en fullständig beskrivning av investeringsmålen och användningen av derivat.

Handla HWWD ETF

HSBC Multi-Factor Worldwide Equity UCITS ETF USD (HWWD ETF) är en börshandlad fond (ETF) som handlas på London Stock Exchange.

London Stock Exchange är en marknad som få svenska banker och nätmäklare erbjuder access till, men DEGIRO gör det.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURH41J
London Stock ExchangeGBPHWWA
London Stock ExchangeUSDHWWD

Största innehav

ISINVärdepapperLandValutaVikt %
US0378331005Apple IncUSAUSD4,83679
US67066G1040NVIDIA CorpUSAUSD4,52876
US5949181045Microsoft CorpUSAUSD4,21029
US02079K3059Alphabet Inc Class AUSAUSD1,86088
US0231351067Amazon.com IncUSAUSD1,77402
US30303M1027Meta Platforms Inc Class AUSAUSD1,53093
US02079K1079Alphabet Inc Class CUSAUSD1,29549
US4781601046Johnson & JohnsonUSAUSD0,96979
US8825081040Texas Instruments IncUSAUSD0,78365
US92532F1003Vertex Pharmaceuticals IncUSAUSD0,74348

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Crypto Market Risks & Opportunities: Insights on Bybit Hack, Bitcoin, and Institutional Adoption

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Crypto Market Risks & Opportunities: Insights on Bybit Hack, Bitcoin, and Institutional Adoption In this analyst call, we dive into the latest developments in the cryptocurrency market, exploring the key risks and opportunities shaping the industry. Our experts discuss:

Crypto Market Risks & Opportunities: Insights on Bybit Hack, Bitcoin, and Institutional Adoption

In this analyst call, we dive into the latest developments in the cryptocurrency market, exploring the key risks and opportunities shaping the industry. Our experts discuss:

🔹 The recent Bybit hacking incident and the security challenges facing centralized exchanges

🔹 Bitcoin’s role as a store of value and how it compares to gold

🔹 The importance of institutional adoption and regulatory clarity in the crypto space

🔹 Market trends, asset pricing fluctuations, and Bitcoin miner behavior during market shifts Join Michael Friedman (Capital Markets Specialist) and Max Michielsen (DA & Investment Strategist) as they break down the insights you need to navigate the evolving crypto landscape.

📺 Watch now to stay ahead in the market!

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