• Last week, cryptoassets underperformed traditional assets as risks to global growth are increasing
• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” continues to fluctuate around neutral levels of sentiment
• Global growth expectations as priced by traditional financial markets have plunged to the lowest level since March 2023 which has negatively affected Cryptoasset Sentiment as well
Chart of the Week
Performance
Last week, cryptoassets underperformed traditional assets such as equities and bonds as risks to global growth are increasing.
In fact, global growth expectations as priced by traditional financial markets have plunged to the lowest level since March 2023 when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed. This has affected overall Cryptoasset Sentiment negatively as well (Chart-of-the-Week). This was accompanied by persistent net outflows from global crypto ETPs as well.
Nonetheless, major US equity indices continued to rallye to new all-time highs although the outperformance of both Bunds and gold vis-à-vis equities hints at some safe-haven demand.
One of the major reasons why global growth expectations are being revised downwards is the fact that US economic data have continued to underwhelm consensus expectations. The Bloomberg US ECO Surprise Index, which measures how important macro data releases have over- or underwhelmed expectations, has decreased to the lowest level since 2019. It appears as if the market is generally catching up to this worsening macro environment.
Although major equity benchmark indices like the S&P 500 have not shown any weakness, cyclical macro trades such as the AUD/JPY exchange rate, US cyclicals/defensives stock sectors, copper/gold are already signalling that the outlook for global growth is weakening.
A recent rise in French sovereign risks amid political developments in France is also contributing to higher macro uncertainty. French 5-year Credit Default Swaps (CDS) that insure against a default of the French government have increased to the highest level since May 2020 as the market is increasingly discounting the possibility of a so-called “FREXIT” – an exit of France from the EU and the Eurozone.
In this context, Bitcoin can be viewed as a hedge against sovereign default since it is a counterparty risk-free and censorship-resistant decentralized network. We have presented this kind of sovereign default hedge model in our latest Bitcoin Investment Case report as well.
Further repricing of global growth expectations to the downside amid increasing US recession risks could be a continuing headwind for Bitcoin and cryptoassets in the short term as there tends to be high correlation between our Cryptoasset Sentiment Index and changes in Global Growth Expectations (Chart-of-the-Week).
In this context, it is also important to highlight that changes in global growth expectations have been the most dominant macro factor over the past 6 months, explaining over 80% of the performance variation in Bitcoin over that period.
However, we continue to believe that the recent correction is not a cyclical top, but rather an intermediate correction in the bull market, which is why we suggest using any kind of macro weakness as an opportunity to add exposure ahead of very important developments in the coming months.
One of the main reasons is that we still expect the positive performance effects from the Bitcoin Halving to take effect from summer onwards as explained in one of our Crypto Market Espresso reports.
Moreover, recent comments by SEC chairman Gary Gensler imply that spot Ethereum ETFs in the US are likely going to be launched earlier than September. This is bound to support Ethereum’s performance as well as explained here.
In addition, the recent monetary policy actions by the ECB and Bank of Canada signal that the liquidity tide is already turning which is bound to be a very significant tailwind for Bitcoin and cryptoassets over the medium to long term as explained here. A likely US recession renders a U-turn in Fed monetary policy very likely as well.
Last but not least, the latest political developments in the US show that the political consensus is moving towards a mainstream acceptance of cryptoassets. For instance, Joe Biden’s presidential campaign has recently started to accept crypto payments for campaign financing as well.
Moreover, Joe Biden’s administration will attend a Bitcoin roundtable with congressional officials in DC in order to discuss how to keep Bitcoin and blockchain innovation inside the U.S.
These developments follow recent pledges by Trump to support Bitcoin mining in the US.
In general, among the top 10 crypto assets, Toncoin, XRP, and Ethereum were the relative outperformers.
Overall, altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has rebounded significantly compared to the prior week, with around 60% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis. This is consistent with the fact that Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin by approximately 200 bps last week, which is generally a sentiment gauge for the overall altcoin market.
Sentiment
Despite the recent price correction, our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” continues to fluctuate around neutral levels of sentiment.
At the moment, 5 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.
Last week, there were significant reversals to the upside in the altseason index and in the BTC long futures liquidation dominance.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index signals ”Greed” as of this morning.
Performance dispersion among cryptoassets still remains very low. Most altcoins are still trading in line with Bitcoin.
Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has increased significantly compared to the week prior, with around 60% of our tracked altcoins outperforming Bitcoin on a weekly basis, which is consistent with the fact that Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin last week.
In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets and the latest altcoin outperformance could signal increasing appetite for risk at the moment.
Meanwhile, sentiment in traditional financial markets has plunged to the lowest level since November 2023, judging by our own measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA).
Fund Flows
Last week, we saw a significant turnaround in net fund flows into global crypto ETPs with around -647.1 mn USD in net outflows.
Global Bitcoin ETPs saw net outflows of -637.1 mn USD last week, of which -580.6 mn USD (net) were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone. Over the past 5 trading days, 4 days have shown negative net outflows.
Flows into Hong Kong spot Bitcoin ETFs were almost flat, with minor net inflows of around +0.3 mn USD, according to data provided by Bloomberg.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw accelerating net outflows with approximately -274.4 mn USD last week. Although iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) continued to see net inflows (+41.6 mn USD) last week, other major US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant outflows, e.g. FBTC with around -146.3 mn USD in net outflows.
Global Ethereum ETPs also saw a reversal in flows last week, with net outflows totalling -10.9 mn USD.
Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum were the only investment vehicles that experienced net inflows of around +4.8 mn USD last week.
Lastly, Thematic & basket crypto ETPs continue to see minor net outflows of -3.9 mn USD, based on our calculations. The ETC Group MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) defied negative market trends and managed to attract +0.4 mn USD in net inflows last week.
Meanwhile, global crypto hedge funds continued to trim down their market exposure to Bitcoin aggressively. The beta of global crypto hedge funds’ performance has declined to only 0.59 over the past 20 trading days.
On-Chain Data
Before last week, we observed that net buying volumes on Bitcoin spot exchanges was negative despite ongoing net inflows into global Bitcoin ETPs. The negative volumes have even accelerated last week with -810 mn USD more selling than buying volume on BTC spot exchanges.
While exchanges continue to see net outflows overall, whales have consistently transferred BTC to exchanges on a net basis which has certainly increased selling pressure from large investors.
Whales are defined as network entities that control at least 1,000 BTC. The absolute number of whales has also declined last week which also supports the observation that whales have been distributing coins. Nonetheless, overall exchange balances for both BTC and ETH continue to hover near multi-year lows.
Meanwhile, there is some evidence that BTC miners have also started distributing some coins. However, these distributions appear not to be happening via exchanges but over-the-counter (OTC). OTC daily miner selling volumes have recently spiked to the highest level since March according to data provided by CryptoQuant. There has also been in a minor uptick in BTC miner transfers to exchanges last week and BTC aggregate miner balances have reached the lowest level since April 2019 according to data provided by Glassnode.
The risk is that miner transfers could accelerate if the market continued to trade lower and decrease below many miners marginal cost of production.
In general, Bitcoin network hash rate is still around -8% lower than at the Halving on the 20th of April. So, Bitcoin miners still have not managed to increase their hash rate signalling ongoing economic headwinds. It is interesting to note that based on data provided by the Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance the average efficiency of the global Bitcoin mining fleet has significantly increased since the Halving as the energy consumption per hash has declined from around 80 Joules per terahash (J/Th) to around 26.4 J/Th.
This implies that miners have already shut off and replaced a significant proportion of inefficient mining hardware following the latest Halving which means that the risk of a significant miner capitulation are rather low.
Futures, Options & Perpetuals
Last week, both BTC futures and perpetuals open interest declined somewhat as traders pared down their derivatives exposure. Open interest on CME also declined significantly by around -10k BTC. Meanwhile, both short and long liquidations stayed relatively but the market swung from a dominance in long liquidations to a dominance in short liquidations in a very short period.
This reduction in open interest seems to be consistent with a decline in the Bitcoin futures basis by almost 200 bps compared to the week prior. Meanwhile, the weighted average of perpetual funding rates continued to be positive throughout the week which signals that the recent price correction has not yet induced any kind of short-term capitulation among BTC futures traders.
Bitcoin options’ open interest increased slightly over the course of last week. The slight increase in relative put-call open interest ratios implies that this increase was mostly driven by an increase in put open interest on a net basis. A put option gives the holder the right to sell the underlying at a specific price in the future. Relative put-call volume ratios also increased throughout the week which supports this observation. So, BTC option traders have overall increased their downside bets/hedges last week on a net basis.
The increase in the 25-delta BTC 1-month option skew also corroborates the view that there was increased demand for puts relative to calls.
However, BTC option implied volatilities decreased significantly last week. Implied volatilities of 1-month ATM Bitcoin options are currently at around 45.9% p.a.
Bottom Line
• Last week, cryptoassets underperformed traditional assets as risks to global growth are increasing
• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” continues to fluctuate around neutral levels of sentiment
• Global growth expectations as priced by traditional financial markets have plunged to the lowest level since March 2023 which has negatively affected Cryptoasset Sentiment as well
To read our Crypto Market Compass in full, please click the button below:
This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer
Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?
Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has amassed a staggering $43 billion in Bitcoin, positioning itself at the forefront of the corporate “reserve race.” Under the leadership of Bitcoin maximalist Michael Saylor, the company now boasts an $84 billion market cap. But with such an aggressive strategy, how sustainable is its approach—and what risks lie ahead? We break it down in today’s analysis.
Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
A drop below $72,000 could flush longs, while a breakout above $90,000 may squeeze shorts. One key positive indicator is that Bitcoin continues to print higher lows since March 10, which preserves a bullish market structure in our view. Dive into our technical analysis.
What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?
Imagine owning a slice of a skyscraper or a piece of fine art with just a few clicks. Tokenization, the act of converting ownership rights to real-world assets (RWAs) into tradable tokens, has surpassed $10 billion in on-chain value, unlocking global 24/7 access to once-exclusive markets with liquidity, efficiency, and yield. Find out how it works.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITSETF EUR Acc (BSE0 ETF) med ISIN IE000I25S1V5, försöker följa Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened-index. Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2030) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2030 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,10 % p.a. Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITSETF EUR Accär den billigaste och största ETF som följer Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITSETF EUR Acc är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 6 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 18 juni 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Produktbeskrivning
Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITSETFAccsyftar till att ge den totala avkastningen för Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index (”Referensindexet”), minus avgifternas inverkan. Fonden har en fast löptid och kommer att upphöra på Förfallodagen.
Referensindexet är utformat för att återspegla resultatet för EUR-denominerade, investeringsklassade, fast ränta, skattepliktiga skuldebrev emitterade av företagsemittenter. För att vara berättigade till inkludering måste företagsvärdepapper ha minst 300 miljoner euro i nominellt utestående belopp och en effektiv löptid på eller mellan 1 januari 2030 och 31 december 2030.
Värdepapper är uteslutna om emittenter: 1) är inblandade i kontroversiella vapen, handeldvapen, militära kontrakt, oljesand, termiskt kol eller tobak; 2) inte har en kontroversnivå enligt definitionen av Sustainalytics eller har en Sustainalytics-kontroversnivå högre än 4; 3) anses inte följa principerna i FN:s Global Compact; eller 4) kommer från tillväxtmarknader.
Portföljförvaltarna strävar efter att uppnå fondens mål genom att tillämpa en urvalsstrategi, som inkluderar användning av kvantitativ analys, för att välja en andel av värdepapperen från referensindexet som representerar hela indexets egenskaper, med hjälp av faktorer som index- vägd genomsnittlig varaktighet, industrisektorer, landvikter och kreditkvalitet. När en företagsobligation som innehas av fonden når förfallodag kommer kontanterna som fonden tar emot att användas för att investera i kortfristiga EUR-denominerade skulder.
ETFen förvaltas passivt.
En investering i denna fond är ett förvärv av andelar i en passivt förvaltad indexföljande fond snarare än i de underliggande tillgångarna som ägs av fonden.
”Förfallodag”: andra onsdagen i december 2026 eller sådant annat datum som bestäms av styrelseledamöterna och meddelas aktieägaren
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.
Since President Trump appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chair two months ago, many investigations into crypto businesses have been dropped, as the SEC moves away from regulation by enforcement and works to create a framework for digital assets. As regulations become clearer and news flow turns more positive, crypto prices—which dropped sharply this week—should begin to better reflect the new regulatory landscape in the US.
We believe this regulatory shift could ultimately help trigger the next leg of the current bull run, as investors better understand the significance of regulatory clarity and seek to acquire bitcoin and altcoins at what we believe are currently very favorable levels.
Market Highlights
SEC Dismisses Crypto Enforcement Actions
The SEC dropped its enforcement actions against crypto-related companies Kraken, Consensys, and Cumberland DRW.
This indicates a shift in SEC’s regulatory approach, favoring clearer guidelines over enforcement actions. Such a pivot could foster a more predictable environment, encouraging innovation within the sector.
Banks to Engage in Crypto Activities
The FDIC has rescinded previous guidelines which prevented financial institutions from engaging with crypto activities without prior sign-off.
By removing bureaucratic hurdles, banks may more readily offer crypto-related services, potentially leading to broader adoption and integration of digital assets.
Bitcoin ETFs Inflow Streak Surpassed $1 Billion
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a 10-day inflow streak exceeding $1 billion marking the longest such streak in 2025.
This underscores growing institutional and retail investor confidence in Bitcoin as an asset class that helps increase market stability and possibly paving the way for the approval of other crypto-based financial products.
Market Metrics
All NCITM constituents had negative performance last week, with XRP (-10.8%) and UNI (-10.7%) seeing the steepest declines. ETH also experienced a sharp drop (-9.1%), contributing to NCITM’s underperformance relative to BTC (-2.9%). The NCITM -4.2% decline reflects a broader risk-off sentiment in the crypto market, as investors reassess their positions amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.
NCITM (-4.2%) extended its underperformance last week, deepening year-to-date losses. Traditional indices like the S&P 500 (-1.5%) and Nasdaq 100 (-2.4%) saw smaller declines. The gap between crypto and other risk assets continues to widen, while gold has emerged as the top performer in 2025, gaining nearly 20% amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. This trend highlights a growing risk-off sentiment, with investors shifting toward defensive assets and away from high-volatility investments.