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ETC Group Crypto Market Compass #11 2024

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Crypto Market Compass #11 Cryptoassets reach new all-time highs supported by ongoing high net inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs

• Cryptoassets reach new all-time highs supported by ongoing high net inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” has come off its highs but still signals bullish sentiment

• Prices continue to be supported by a pervasive demand overhang / supply deficit on Bitcoin spot exchanges which amounted to around 1.4 bn USD over the past week


Chart of the Week

Performance

Last week, cryptoassets posted another week of strong performance supported by ongoing high net inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw another week of above +2 bn USD in net inflows. Despite the fact that we saw very significant profit-taking by short-term BTC holders, i.e. those with a holding period of less than 155 days, this supply distribution was absorbed by much larger demand.

Prices generally continue to be supported by a pervasive demand overhang / supply deficit on Bitcoin spot exchanges which amounted to around 1.4 bn USD over the past week (Chart-of-the-Week).

We expect this significant demand overhang induced by significant ETF inflows to continue at least over the next 3 months as the majority of ETF fund inflows is still yet to come based on our initial estimation of more than 30 bn USD of eligible capital that could flow into US spot Bitcoin ETFs over the medium term (see ETC Group Outlook 2024 report).

Moreover, the total amount of eligible flows has likely increased in nominal terms as traditional financial markets have also been rallying since we made that estimation.

That being said, overall sentiment still remains bullish which makes short-term pullbacks still very likely. This observation is also supported by the recent increase in the so-called “Kimchi Premium” which measures the price premium of bitcoins traded on Korean exchanges relative to Coinbase. This premium recently surged above 10% implying increasing euphoria among retail investors as the Korean exchanges are particularly dominated by retail investors.

In general, among the top 10 crypto assets, Shiba Inu, BNB, and Ethereum were the relative outperformers.

Nonetheless, overall altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin declined somewhat compared to the week prior, with only 30% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis.

Sentiment

Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has come off its highs but still signals bullish sentiment.

At the moment, 11 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.

There were significant increases in BTC futures basis rate and the short-term holder net unrealized profit/loss ratio (STH-NUPL).

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index still remains in ”Extreme Greed” territory as of this morning.

Meanwhile, our own measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) declined somewhat throughout the week which signals less bullish sentiment in traditional financial markets.

Performance dispersion among cryptoassets has declined significantly albeit from the highest readings ever recorded in our sample. Performance dispersion still remains relatively high.

In general, high performance dispersion among cryptoassets implies that correlations among cryptoassets are low, which means that cryptoassets are trading more on coin-specific factors and that cryptoassets are increasingly decoupling from the performance of Bitcoin.

At the same time, altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin declined somewhat, despite a slight outperformance of Ethereum vis-à-vis Bitcoin last week. Viewed more broadly, around 30% of our tracked altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin on a weekly basis.

In general, decreasing altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of declining risk appetite within cryptoasset markets.

Fund Flows

Overall, we saw another week of record net fund inflows in the amount of +2,754.6 mn USD (week ending Friday) based on Bloomberg data across all types of cryptoassets.

Global Bitcoin ETPs continued to see significant net inflows of +2,702.2 mn USD of which +2,238.7 mn (net) were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone. The ETC Group Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) saw net outflows equivalent to -75.5 mn USD last week.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) experienced a significant increase in net outflows of around -1,654.4 mn USD last week. However, this was also more than offset by net inflows into other US spot Bitcoin ETFs which managed to attract +3,893.1 bn USD (ex GBTC).

Note that some fund flows data for US major issuers are still lacking in the abovementioned numbers due to T+2 settlement.

Apart from Bitcoin, we saw comparatively small flows into other cryptoassets last week again.

Global Ethereum ETPs saw net outflows last week of around -12.8 mn USD after a week of significant inflows. However, the ETC Group Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) managed to attract +0.25 mn USD.

Besides, Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum managed to attract significant inflows of around +49.9 mn USD last week.

Thematic & basket crypto ETPs also experienced net inflows of +15.2 mn USD, based on our calculations. The ETC Group MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) also saw net inflows of around +0.46 mn USD last week.

Besides, the beta of global crypto hedge funds to Bitcoin over the last 20 trading has decreased significantly to around 1.04 which implies that global crypto hedge funds have significantly decreased their market exposure recently.

On-Chain Data

Overall, cryptoasset prices continue to be supported by a significant imbalance between supply and demand for bitcoins on spot exchanges. The current global Bitcoin ETP inflows and US ETF inflows in particular are generally the main driver of this imbalance that provide a significant support for prices.

More specifically, prices generally continue to be supported by a pervasive demand overhang / supply deficit on Bitcoin spot exchanges which amounted to around 1.4 bn USD over the past week (Chart-of-the-Week). This is also corroborated by similar numbers in the cumulative volume delta (CVD) over the past.

In this context, we are also observing ongoing exchange withdrawals of bitcoins which amounted to around -481 mn USD over the past week according to data provided by Glassnode.

What is more is that so-called whales have continued to withdraw bitcoins from exchanges every single since mid-January. Whales are defined as network entities (cluster of addresses) that hold at least 1,000 BTC. As a result, bitcoin exchange balances have continued to drift lower and remain near their 6-year lows.

Meanwhile, short-term BTC holders have continued to send significant amounts of bitcoins to exchanges in a sign of increased profit-taking. Wednesday saw the highest USD-amount of short-term holder transfers of bitcoins in profit to exchanges ever of around 4.3 bn USD. Bitcoin miners also continue to send significant amounts of bitcoins to exchanges. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin miners have sold around 121% of mined supply, i.e. have sold around 1/5 more than they mine per day.

Futures, Options & Perpetuals

The recent surge in prices was also supported by increased open interest in cryptoasset derivatives.

For instance, BTC futures open interest increased by around +29k BTC while BTC perpetual open interest increased by around +8k BTC over the past week.

Meanwhile, the volume of futures short liquidations continued to decline implying that short open interest was significantly reduced while long liquidations spiked on the 5th of March last week when heightened intraday volatility caught long traders off guard. Both the volume of long and short liquidations have declined considerably since then.

Besides, the 3-months annualized BTC futures reached a new cycle high to around 23.5% p.a. which is the highest reading since May 2021.

BTC perpetual funding rates have come off their cycle highs but remained positive throughout the week.

BTC options’ open interest also increased last week by around +38k BTC as traders shifted towards buying more call options. The Put-call open interest declined compared to last week and is now at around 0.57. Put-call volume ratios also declined indicating less appetite for downside protection and more appetite for upside calls, respectively.

The 25-delta BTC option skew also continued to decline consistent with less appetite for puts.

However, BTC option implied volatilities continued to drift higher throughout the week with fresh year-to-date highs of around 78.0% p.a. for 1-month ATM options – the highest reading since November 2022.


Bottom Line

• Cryptoassets reach new all-time highs supported by ongoing high net inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs

Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” has come off its highs but still signals bullish sentiment

• Prices continue to be supported by a pervasive demand overhang / supply deficit on Bitcoin spot exchanges which amounted to around 1.4 bn USD over the past week

Disclaimer

Important Information

The information provided in this material is for informative purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or solicitation to conclude a transaction. This document (which may be in the form of a blogpost, research article, marketing brochure, press release, social media post, blog post, broadcast communication or similar instrument – we refer to this category of communications generally as a “document” for purposes of this disclaimer) is issued by ETC Issuance GmbH (the “issuer”), a limited company incorporated under the laws of Germany, having its corporate domicile in Germany. This document has been prepared in accordance with applicable laws and regulations (including those relating to financial promotions). If you are considering investing in any securities issued by ETC Group, including any securities described in this document, you should check with your broker or bank that securities issued by ETC Group are available in your jurisdiction and suitable for your investment profile.

Exchange-traded commodities/cryptocurrencies, or ETPs, are a highly volatile asset and performance is unpredictable. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The market price of ETPs will vary and they do not offer a fixed income. The value of any investment in ETPs may be affected by exchange rate and underlying price movements. This document may contain forward-looking statements including statements regarding ETC Group’s belief or current expectations with regards to the performance of certain asset classes. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that such statements will be accurate and actual results could differ materially. Therefore, you must not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. This document does not constitute investment advice nor an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any product or make any investment. An investment in an ETC that is linked to cryptocurrency, such as those offered by ETC Group, is dependent on the performance of the underlying cryptocurrency, less costs, but it is not expected to match that performance precisely. ETPs involve numerous risks including, among others, general market risks relating to underlying adverse price movements and currency, liquidity, operational, legal, and regulatory risks.

For more details and the full disclaimer

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Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis

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Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
  • Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
  • Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
  • What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?

Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has amassed a staggering $43 billion in Bitcoin, positioning itself at the forefront of the corporate “reserve race.” Under the leadership of Bitcoin maximalist Michael Saylor, the company now boasts an $84 billion market cap. But with such an aggressive strategy, how sustainable is its approach—and what risks lie ahead? We break it down in today’s analysis.

Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?

A drop below $72,000 could flush longs, while a breakout above $90,000 may squeeze shorts. One key positive indicator is that Bitcoin continues to print higher lows since March 10, which preserves a bullish market structure in our view. Dive into our technical analysis.

What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?

Imagine owning a slice of a skyscraper or a piece of fine art with just a few clicks. Tokenization, the act of converting ownership rights to real-world assets (RWAs) into tradable tokens, has surpassed $10 billion in on-chain value, unlocking global 24/7 access to once-exclusive markets with liquidity, efficiency, and yield. Find out how it works.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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BSE0 ETF köper bara företagsobligationer med förfall 2030

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Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc (BSE0 ETF) med ISIN IE000I25S1V5, försöker följa Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened-index. Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2030) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2030 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc (BSE0 ETF) med ISIN IE000I25S1V5, försöker följa Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened-index. Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2030) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2030 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,10 % p.a. Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc är den billigaste och största ETF som följer Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 6 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 18 juni 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Produktbeskrivning

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF Acc syftar till att ge den totala avkastningen för Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index (”Referensindexet”), minus avgifternas inverkan. Fonden har en fast löptid och kommer att upphöra på Förfallodagen.

Referensindexet är utformat för att återspegla resultatet för EUR-denominerade, investeringsklassade, fast ränta, skattepliktiga skuldebrev emitterade av företagsemittenter. För att vara berättigade till inkludering måste företagsvärdepapper ha minst 300 miljoner euro i nominellt utestående belopp och en effektiv löptid på eller mellan 1 januari 2030 och 31 december 2030.

Värdepapper är uteslutna om emittenter: 1) är inblandade i kontroversiella vapen, handeldvapen, militära kontrakt, oljesand, termiskt kol eller tobak; 2) inte har en kontroversnivå enligt definitionen av Sustainalytics eller har en Sustainalytics-kontroversnivå högre än 4; 3) anses inte följa principerna i FN:s Global Compact; eller 4) kommer från tillväxtmarknader.

Portföljförvaltarna strävar efter att uppnå fondens mål genom att tillämpa en urvalsstrategi, som inkluderar användning av kvantitativ analys, för att välja en andel av värdepapperen från referensindexet som representerar hela indexets egenskaper, med hjälp av faktorer som index- vägd genomsnittlig varaktighet, industrisektorer, landvikter och kreditkvalitet. När en företagsobligation som innehas av fonden når förfallodag kommer kontanterna som fonden tar emot att användas för att investera i kortfristiga EUR-denominerade skulder.

ETFen förvaltas passivt.

En investering i denna fond är ett förvärv av andelar i en passivt förvaltad indexföljande fond snarare än i de underliggande tillgångarna som ägs av fonden.

Förfallodag: andra onsdagen i december 2026 eller sådant annat datum som bestäms av styrelseledamöterna och meddelas aktieägaren

Handla BSE0 ETF

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc (BSE0 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
XETRAEURBSE0

Största innehav

NamnCUSIPISINKupongräntaVikt %
Fresenius SE & Co KGaA 5.125% 05/10/30D2R9K1AL3XS26987136955.1252.55%
Mercedes-Benz Group AG 2.375% 22/05/30D1668RZW0DE000A289XG82.3752.19%
Akzo Nobel NV 1.625% 14/04/30N01803YV6XS21565982811.6252.08%
Eni SpA 0.625% 23/01/30T3666JJV9XS21073154700.6251.98%
Prologis International Funding II 2.375% 14/11/30L7763MAD2XS19046903412.3751.78%
REWE International Finance BV 4.875% 13/09/30N74119AA1XS26798981844.8751.65%
CaixaBank SA 4.25% 06/09/30E2R193R97XS26768144994.2501.64%
Verizon Communications Inc 4.25% 31/10/30XS25508811434.2501.64%
Liberty Mutual Group Inc 4.625% 02/12/30U52932BR7XS25616473684.6251.62%
AXA SA 3.75% 12/10/30F0609NBG2XS25372511703.7501.60%

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US regulatory shift provides a beacon for optimism

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Since President Trump appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chair two months ago, many investigations into crypto businesses have been dropped, as the SEC moves away from regulation by enforcement and works to create a framework for digital assets. As regulations become clearer and news flow turns more positive, crypto prices—which dropped sharply this week—should begin to better reflect the new regulatory landscape in the US.

Since President Trump appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chair two months ago, many investigations into crypto businesses have been dropped, as the SEC moves away from regulation by enforcement and works to create a framework for digital assets. As regulations become clearer and news flow turns more positive, crypto prices—which dropped sharply this week—should begin to better reflect the new regulatory landscape in the US.

We believe this regulatory shift could ultimately help trigger the next leg of the current bull run, as investors better understand the significance of regulatory clarity and seek to acquire bitcoin and altcoins at what we believe are currently very favorable levels.

Market Highlights

SEC Dismisses Crypto Enforcement Actions

The SEC dropped its enforcement actions against crypto-related companies Kraken, Consensys, and Cumberland DRW.

This indicates a shift in SEC’s regulatory approach, favoring clearer guidelines over enforcement actions. Such a pivot could foster a more predictable environment, encouraging innovation within the sector.

Banks to Engage in Crypto Activities

The FDIC has rescinded previous guidelines which prevented financial institutions from engaging with crypto activities without prior sign-off.

By removing bureaucratic hurdles, banks may more readily offer crypto-related services, potentially leading to broader adoption and integration of digital assets.

Bitcoin ETFs Inflow Streak Surpassed $1 Billion

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a 10-day inflow streak exceeding $1 billion marking the longest such streak in 2025.

This underscores growing institutional and retail investor confidence in Bitcoin as an asset class that helps increase market stability and possibly paving the way for the approval of other crypto-based financial products.

Market Metrics

All NCITM constituents had negative performance last week, with XRP (-10.8%) and UNI (-10.7%) seeing the steepest declines. ETH also experienced a sharp drop (-9.1%), contributing to NCITM’s underperformance relative to BTC (-2.9%). The NCITM -4.2% decline reflects a broader risk-off sentiment in the crypto market, as investors reassess their positions amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.

NCITM (-4.2%) extended its underperformance last week, deepening year-to-date losses. Traditional indices like the S&P 500 (-1.5%) and Nasdaq 100 (-2.4%) saw smaller declines. The gap between crypto and other risk assets continues to widen, while gold has emerged as the top performer in 2025, gaining nearly 20% amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. This trend highlights a growing risk-off sentiment, with investors shifting toward defensive assets and away from high-volatility investments.

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