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Enter the dragon: Parsing Lunar New Year opportunities among emerging markets
As we enter the year of the dragon, Dina Ting, Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, assesses the opportunities and risks in China and Taiwan, which saw divergent market performance last year. She also highlights a region that not only has seen rising engagement with China but was also an EM bright spot that outperformed the S&P 500 Index in 2023—Latin America.
While Western season’s greetings are merry with wishes of joy, peace, love and blessings, those for Chinese cultures tend toward “good fortune.” In tandem with happiness for the Lunar New Year, wishes for prosperity are typical—and something that China investors could certainly use as we enter the year of the dragon.
China and Hong Kong markets had a humbling 2023 with equities down more than 10%. Fortunately, regulators in Beijing have turned up the dial on reform measures to stoke some of that auspicious dragon luck. Expectations are rising for even more support to come. In early February, China’s central bank made changes to allow its financial institutions to hold smaller cash reserves, cutting the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points. This is set to release nearly US$140 billion in long-term capital as Beijing seeks to boost targeted growth and market confidence.
A rise in the country’s passenger vehicle sales also offers some hope, and 2023 saw China surpass Japan as the world’s largest car exporter.1 Year-over-year retail passenger car sales were up 57% in January, according to the China Passenger Car Association. The country’s expertise in so-called new-energy vehicles—fully electric and plug-in hybrids—is partly responsible for the export surge.2 Another important shift to note is that China’s auto industry is increasingly shipping to wealthier countries—exports to Australia tripled year-over-year during the first half of last year and sales to Spain rose 17-fold to nearly 70,000 vehicles.3 With renewed government support, China’s electric vehicle (EV) makers are making a big splash on the world stage. Shenzhen-based automaker BYD overtook Tesla as the world’s top seller of EVs at the end of 2023, and China’s overall passenger EV sales are forecast to make up 59% of world sales this year, compared to 50% in 2019.4
Still re-opening
Beijing has also begun stepping up tourism and travel promotions, granting visa-free entry to 11 countries, with Singapore and Thailand the latest to be included. Other policies to combat soft consumer demand include simplified visa procedures that allow travelers to apply for entry permits upon arrival at some ports and lower visa application fees for some foreign nationals.
In our view, Beijing’s recent spate of new reform policies should hold long-term benefits for its state-owned enterprises (SOEs), including its “big four” banks, as well as corporations entrenched in the country’s energy sector. Of course, China’s domestic deflationary pressures and real estate market weakness remain dominant concerns.
Beyond the Magnificent Seven (Mag7),5 which drove US equity returns last year, the broader equity market had less impressive returns over the same period. Big tech’s outperformance, coupled with sharp declines in China, may have also obscured some encouraging trends for emerging markets (EM), where we saw pockets of stellar performance. Understandably, global investors may feel inclined to await more regulatory clarity before warming to China’s markets. Keep in mind that a typical EM portfolio, such as the FTSE Emerging Index, holds about a 25% weighting in mainland China versus 18% for Taiwan.6 The MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index holds a 29% exposure to China versus 19% for Taiwan.7 So for a more precise, targeted approach, investors may consider low-cost single country-focused exchange-traded funds to express tactical views.
2023 outperformers
Instead of “Mag7,” perhaps “Fantastic Four” can catch on as a moniker for four pockets within EM markets that outperformed the S&P 500 Index last year. They are Taiwan, Mexico, Brazil and Latin America, which predominantly consists of its two largest economies.
Excluding China, EM stocks (as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Index) returned 20.1% in 2023,8 with Latin America (as measured by the FTSE Latin America RIC Capped Index) faring well, up 33% for the year.9 The equity markets of Mexico (39.4%, as measured by the FTSE Mexico RIC Capped Index) and Brazil (33.3%, as measured by the FTSE Brazil RIC Capped Index) were standouts, and in Asia, tech powerhouse Taiwan (30.1%, as measured by the FTSE Taiwan RIC Capped Index) also posted stellar performance.10 For investors wanting to capture both of Latin America’s largest economies, the FTSE Latin America RIC Capped Index has a combined weighting of more than 90% in Brazil and Mexico, and notably lacks exposure to Argentina. In recent years, China has cultivated a growing influence in Latin America with trade pacts, overseas foreign direct investment and loans playing a major role in its strengthened ties with the region. While India’s market slightly trailed the S&P 500 last year, it still exhibited robust growth and is increasingly seen as an appealing alternative to China among both businesses and investors.
When chips are down…
Looking ahead, analysts expect an ongoing resurgence in global semiconductor sales to continue boosting Taiwan’s market. Powered by artificial intelligence and 3D tech, the chips revenue comeback is forecast to see a low to mid-teens percentage increase this year.11 Furthermore, to meet growing demand in key markets, Taiwan’s most valuable chip giant plans to expand its global footprint. In collaboration with Sony and Toyota, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing has new plans to build a second plant in Japan.
In January, Taiwan saw its overall exports expand for a third consecutive month with an 18% year-over-year rise.12 During the month, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) retention of the presidency in Taiwan’s recent elections appeared to support continuity in its economic policy. Although cross-straits relations continue to pose risks, markets had largely factored in the pro-independent DPP’s narrow victory.
- Source: “China Overtakes Japan As World’s Biggest Vehicle Exporter.” Barron’s. January 31, 2024.
- Sources: Xinhua news agency, China Passenger Car Association.
- Source: “How China became a car-exporting juggernaut.” The Economist. August 10, 2023,
- Source: BloombergNEF.
- The Magnificent Seven are (Mag7) Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla.
- Source: FTSE Russell, February 13, 2024. The FTSE Emerging Index provides investors with a comprehensive means of measuring the performance of the most liquid large- and mid-cap companies in the emerging markets. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Important data provider notices and terms available at www.franklintempletondatasources.com.
- Source: MSCI, January 31, 2024. The MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across two of three developed market countries (excluding Japan) and eight emerging market countries in Asia. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Important data provider notices and terms available at www.franklintempletondatasources.com.
- Source: Bloomberg, as of December 31, 2023. The MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 23 of the 24 emerging market countries excluding China. Past performance is not an indicator or a guarantee of future performance. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Important data provider notices and terms available at www.franklintempletondatasources.com.
- Source: Bloomberg, as of December 31, 2023. The FTSE country and region RIC Capped indexes represent the performance of the respective country’s or region’s large- and mid-capitalization stocks. Securities are weighted based on their free float-adjusted market capitalization and reviewed semiannually. Past performance is not an indicator or a guarantee of future performance. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Important data provider notices and terms available at www.franklintempletondatasources.com.
- Ibid.
- Sources: Deloitte, Semiconductor Industry Association, Gartner, Inc.
- Source: Ministry of Finance, Republic of China, February 2024.
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2024 was a landmark year for bitcoin, solidifying its role as a fully institutionalised asset class.
Institutional inflows into physical bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) reached nearly $35 billion globally, signalling a major shift in how traditional investors view crypto. As bitcoin continued to enhance portfolios’ risk-return profiles, more institutional investors followed suit, reshaping the financial landscape.
Looking ahead, 2025 promises to bring exciting developments across the crypto ecosystem. Here are the top five crypto trends to watch.
Fear of being left behind
The era of bitcoin as a niche investment is over. Institutional adoption is creating a ripple effect, forcing hesitant players to reconsider. Portfolios with bitcoin allocations are consistently outperforming those without, highlighting its growing importance.
Figure 1: Bitcoin in a multi-asset portfolio
| 60/40 Global Portfolio | 1% Bitcoin Portfolio | 3% Bitcoin Portfolio | 5% Bitcoin Portfolio | 10% Bitcoin Portfolio | MSCI AC World | Bloomberg Multiverse | Bitcoin | |
| Annualised Return | 5.77% | 6.46% | 7.83% | 9.20% | 12.57% | 9.07% | 0.56% | 56.24% |
| Volatility | 8.79% | 8.86% | 9.14% | 9.62% | 11.42% | 13.94% | 5.05% | 67.28% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.48 | 0.55 | 0.68 | 0.79 | 0.96 | 0.54 | -0.20 | 0.81 |
| Information Ratio | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.00 | ||||
| Beta | 70% | 71% | 73% | 75% | 81% | 100% | 24% | 181% |
Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree. From 31 December 2013 to 30 November 2024. In USD. Based on daily returns. The 60/40 Global Portfolio is composed of 60% MSCI All Country World and 40% Bloomberg Multiverse. You cannot invest directly in an index. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investment may go down in value.
With bitcoin’s ability to noticeably improve portfolios’ risk-return profiles, asset managers face a clear choice: integrate bitcoin into multi-asset portfolios or risk falling behind in a rapidly evolving financial landscape. In 2025, expect the competition to heat up as clients demand exposure to this powerhouse cryptocurrency.
Expanding crypto investment options
In 2024, regulatory breakthroughs opened the doors for physical bitcoin and ether ETPs in key developed markets. This marked a critical step towards making cryptocurrencies mainstream, providing seamless access to institutional and retail investors alike.
Figure 2: Global physical crypto ETP assets under management (AUM) and 2024 net flows
Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree. 02 January 2025. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investment may go down in value.
In 2025, this momentum is expected to accelerate as the crypto regulatory environment becomes more friendly in the United States and as key developed markets follow Europe’s lead and approve ETPs for altcoins such as Solana and XRP. With their clear utility and growing adoption, these altcoins are strong candidates for institutional investment vehicles.
This next wave of altcoin ETPs will expand the diversity of crypto investment opportunities and further integrate cryptocurrencies into the global financial system.
The maturing of Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem
Ethereum’s role as the backbone of decentralised finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and Web3 is unmatched, but its scalability challenges remain a hurdle. Layer-2 solutions—technologies such as Arbitrum and Optimism—are transforming Ethereum’s scalability and usability by enabling faster, cheaper transactions.
In 2025, Ethereum’s recent upgrades, such as Proto-Danksharding (introduced in the ‘Dencun’ upgrade), will drive layer-2 adoption even further. Innovations like Visa’s layer-2 payment platform leveraging Ethereum for instant cross-border transactions will underscore the platform’s evolution.
Expect Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem to power real-world use cases ranging from tokenized assets to decentralised gaming, positioning it as the infrastructure of a truly scalable digital economy.
Stablecoins: bridging finance and blockchain
Stablecoins are becoming indispensable to the global financial system, offering the stability of traditional assets with the efficiency of blockchain. Platforms such as Ethereum dominate the stablecoin landscape, hosting stablecoin giants Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), which facilitate billions in daily transactions.
Figure 3: Key stablecoin chains
Source: Artemis Terminal, WisdomTree. 05 January 2025. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investment may go down in value.
As we move into 2025, stablecoins will increasingly interact with blockchain ecosystems such as Solana and XRP. Solana’s high-speed, low-cost infrastructure makes it ideal for stablecoin payments and remittances, while XRP Ledger’s focus on cross-border efficiency positions it as a leader in global settlements. With institutional adoption rising and DeFi applications booming, stablecoins will serve as the backbone of a seamless, interconnected financial ecosystem.
Tokenization: redefining ownership and revolutionising finance
Tokenization is set to redefine how we think about ownership and value. By converting tangible assets like real estate, commodities, stocks, and art into digital tokens, tokenization breaks down barriers to entry and creates unprecedented liquidity.
In 2025, tokenization will expand dramatically, empowering investors to own fractions of high-value assets. Platforms such as Paxos Gold and AspenCoin are already showcasing how tokenization can revolutionize markets for gold and luxury real estate. The integration of tokenized assets into DeFi will unlock new financial opportunities, such as using tokenized real estate as collateral for loans. As tokenization matures, it will transform industries ranging from private equity to venture capital, creating a more inclusive and efficient financial system.
For the avoidance of any doubt, tokenization complements crypto by expanding the use cases of blockchain to include real-world applications.
Looking ahead
2025 is set to be a defining year for crypto, as innovation, regulation, and adoption converge. Whether it is bitcoin cementing its position as a portfolio staple, Ethereum scaling for mainstream use, or tokenization unlocking liquidity in untapped markets, the crypto ecosystem is poised for explosive growth. For investors and institutions alike, the opportunities have never been clearer or more compelling.
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
On January 20, 2025, bitcoin (BTC) reached a new all-time high, surpassing $109,000, and this milestone coincided with Donald Trump’s inauguration for his second term as U.S. President.
Historical trends show that BTC has performed exceptionally well in the 12 months following the past three U.S. elections. If history repeats, this could signal another bullish phase. With Trump’s pro-BTC stance and a U.S. Congress aligned on favorable digital regulation, the outlook for the coming months appears highly promising.
Source: Hashdex Research with data from Messari (from November 6, 2012 to January 19, 2025).
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS | Jan 13 2025 – Jan 19 2025
Bitcoin-backed loans enabled on Coinbase’s L2
• Now customers can borrow USDC in the new base’s lending protocol by using bitcoin as collateral.
• This underscores the importance of onchain innovations as the pillar for future adoption of blockchain technology, in this case enhancing personal finance to be more decentralized and intuitive in a permissionless etho..
ETF filings reiterate bullish regulatory tailwinds
• As Donald Trump’s inauguration approaches, several asset managers have filed applications for new crypto ETF products, including those focused on assets like LTC and XRP.
• This reflects optimism for 2025’s crypto regulations and their potential to transform the regulated products landscape.
Trump to make crypto top priority in US agenda
• U.S. President-elect Donald Trump allegedly plans to issue an executive order making crypto a national policy priority and establishing an advisory council.
• The announcement signals that crypto has gained political importance. Even if not all promises are met, crypto has already crossed the chasm.
MARKET METRICS
The Nasdaq Crypto Index™
This week saw a significant rise in digital assets as the market awaits Trump’s inauguration, with the NCI™ (+15.3%) outperforming all traditional asset classes. The NCI™ (+13.2%) also outperformed BTC (+12.1%), highlighting the value of diversification in a volatile market. The performance was positively impacted by SOL’s strong 46.3% gain, while ETH’s underwhelming 3.0% growth had a dampening effect.
Source: Hashdex Research with data from CF Benchmarks and Bloomberg (from December 31, 2024 to January 19, 2025).
It was a strong week for the NCI™ , with SOL leading the pack (among others, like XRP and LINK), surging 46.3%, while BTC (12.1%) and ETH (3.0%) lagged behind. This price action seems driven by excitement around Trump’s inauguration and the crypto-friendly environment his promises suggest.
Source: Hashdex Research with data from Messari (from January 12, 2025 to January 19, 2025).
Indices tracked by Hashdex
Source: Hashdex Research with data from CF Benchmarks and Vinter (from January 19, 2024 to January 19, 2025).
5 crypto trends to watch in 2025
FGLR ETF gör hållbara investeringar i hela världen
Trump’s inauguration day, BTC all-time high and the US election bullish effect
AXA IM antar SDR-märkningar för tre aktiefonder i Storbritannien
HSDD ETF köper aktier i hållbara företag från den utvecklade världen
De mest eftersökta ETFerna i december 2024
Post-election rally cools at year end
De bästa ETFerna för värdeaktier
BlackRock slår rekord med lanseringen av bitcoin ETF
Hector McNeil kommenterar Trumps krav på Natos försvarsutgifter
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Nyheter3 veckor sedanDe mest eftersökta ETFerna i december 2024
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Nyheter3 veckor sedanDe bästa ETFerna för värdeaktier
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Nyheter2 veckor sedanPost-election rally cools at year end
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Nyheter3 veckor sedanBlackRock slår rekord med lanseringen av bitcoin ETF
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Nyheter3 veckor sedanHector McNeil kommenterar Trumps krav på Natos försvarsutgifter
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Nyheter3 veckor sedanBuffertstrategin på Nasdaq-100 med december 2024/2025 som ny målperiod
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Nyheter4 veckor sedanValour PYTH SEK spårar priset på kryptovalutan PYTH
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Nyheter4 veckor sedanJREZ ETF investerar i företag från Eurozonen med höga ESG-betyg
