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End of FED’s Asset Purchase Program and Upside GDP Surprise Drives Rally
ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly A Turbulent Week for Investors – End of FED’s Asset Purchase Program and Upside GDP Surprise Drives Rally
Highlights
- Nickel rebounds
- Global equities cheer on upside US GDP surprise
- Stimulus from central banks remains a critical driver for FX performance
Even though the end to the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying programme was well anticipated, asset prices reacted strongly. Less dovish comments and the further emphasis on data underscore the market’s reaction. Gold and silver, widely viewed as alternative currencies fell, while stock markets rallied on better-than-expected US Q3 GDP results. US non-farm pay-rolls will be closely watched this week in an era of heightened data dependency.
Commodities
Nickel rebounds. Nickel bounced back 4.1% after excessive losses in recent months. With nickel trading significantly below its marginal cost, further price falls are untenable and we are likely seeing the beginning of a structural price rally that could be repeated across a number of industrial metals. Soybean meal and soybeans rose 4.9% and 3.0% respectively on reports of dry weather in Brazil, which could delay planting. Grain deliveries by railroad were down 2% according to the Association of American Railroads, accounting for some of tightness in the US despite record production. Corn rose 3.9% as a delay in US harvesting opens up the risk of crop damage if the corn remains in the ground too long. Gold fell 2.5% as the Fed ended its bond buying programme, dragging highly correlated silver and platinum down 1.7% and 1.4% respectively. Cocoa fell 5.4% with the “Ebola-premium” dissipating due to the absence of the virus in the key producer, Ivory Coast. Coffee also fell 3.0%, as prices moderate from the spike in September.
Equities
Global equities cheer on upside US GDP surprise. Led by the Russell 2000 small caps index, which rose 3.5%, most broad equity indices rose last week as investors upgraded their assessment of global growth. The IVSTOXX index fell 5.5% as recent equity market volatility got crushed. A key exception to the rally was the FTSE® MIB index, which fell by 1.0%, weighed down by structural challenges in Italy and Europe more broadly. The MSCI China A-Share index rose 3.0%, shaking off pessimism related to the delay in the opening of the Hong Kong-Shanghai Connect, as investors realise that it is a matter of ‘when’ and ‘not if’ the link opens. The ROBO-STOX® Global Robotics and Automation Index TR rose 1.9% as the robotics revolution, a megatrend to rival the industrial revolution and internet boom, gained traction.
Currencies
Stimulus from central banks remains a critical driver for FX performance, as evidenced by the moves in the Euro, Yen and US Dollar in recent weeks. This week the Australian dollar and the Euro move back into focus. Both central banks will be angling for a lower currency to help boost activity that is otherwise somewhat lacking, with the Reserve Bank of Australia likely to be more forthright in its signalling. As such the AUD could struggle this week. The FOMC began the subtle shift toward tighter policy with less dovish language, and the market viewed this as a positive result nonetheless. The key sentence that we highlighted in the FOMC preview was removed, with the Fed clearly indicating that the focus will be on the data – which has been robust in recent months. Meanwhile, the Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels normal in the longer run. We remain bullish on the outlook for the USD as tighter monetary policy drives the currency higher against other G10 currencies..
Important Information
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).
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Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
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Mar.25 crypto update, Research commentary on market turmoil, CIO Notes and ETP performance attribution
A – Research commentaries from last week developments
- Markets reacted to Trump tariffs – Bitcoin stands
Global markets fell sharply after President Trump’s new 25% tariffs on Chinese imports. Stocks led the decline – the Nasdaq 100 is now down -14% since the election, and the S&P 500 -12.3%. Crypto reacted too, but not uniformly:
• Altcoins such as SOL and ETH were hit hardest (down over 30% since November)
• Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) showed resilience, gaining +14.3% and +9.3%, respectively since Election
This kind of selloff tends to erase diversification — everything moves together. But it’s essential to take a longer view:
• Since Trump’s election, only three assets have consistently outperformed: Bitcoin, NCI, and gold.
• Last week, only gold outpaced BTC, confirming the role of digital assets as a strategic long-term allocation — even in volatile regimes.
- Regulatory tailwinds are building
The next phase of crypto decoupling could come from policy. In the US, the signals are turning positive:
• The STABLE Act advanced in Congress, with Trump urging swift approval
• A tokenized fund paid $4.17M in dividends last month, proving blockchain’s real-world income potential
• The SEC has launched a review of past crypto guidance — a move toward clearer rules and broader institutional comfort
Bottom line: In a week where most assets fell, crypto stood out. That’s not a coincidence — it’s a signal.
B – CIO Monthly Notes – Crypto’s Political Tailwinds Are Blowing Hard
• Following a week in Washington, our CIO outlines how crypto is gaining bipartisan traction in DC.
• Key takeaway: regulatory clarity is coming faster than expected, and institutions are taking note.
C – March 2025 ETP performance overview
As of 31/03/25 – Source: Hashdex and Bloomberg. Performances in USD.
Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH / HDX1) : March: -4.5% | YTD: -19%
Key drivers in March: Bitcoin and Ethereum
March Performance Attribution:
Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP (HAMO / HDXM): March: -8.5% | YTD: -22%
Key drivers in March: Litecoin, Ethereum and Solana
March Performance Attribution:
Hashdex Multi-Crypto Index ETPs
Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH)
• Broad exposure to BTC, ETH, and major altcoins (SOL, XRP, ADA, etc)
• Quarterly rebalancing – evolutive, market cap-based allocation with no caps (weights and number of constituents)
• Largest crypto index ETP in Europe (+$300m AUM)
• ISIN: CH1184151731 | Tickers: HASH (SIX, Euronext) / HDX1 (Xetra)
• Tradable in USD, EUR, CHF, GBP
• Factsheet / Product page / Index Methodology
Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP (HAMO/HDXM )
• Momentum-based strategy with monthly rebalancing
• Designed to capture trends across large-cap crypto assets
• ISIN: CH1218734544 | Tickers: HAMO (SIX, Euronext) / HDXM (Xetra)
• Tradable in USD, EUR, CHF, GBP
• Factsheet / Product page / Index Methodology
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