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Downside Scenario Comes to the Fore
Monthly Update Downside Scenario Comes to the Fore. ETF Securities Research and Roubini Global Economics
Downside Scenario Comes to the Fore
• The global economy continues to be buffeted by the series of financial shocks and knock-on uncertainty since last spring, with China supplanting the Fed’s decision-making as the main source of concern. Recent economic momentum in the U.S. has seemed softer, possibly delaying the Fed’s “lift-off” into 2016.
• The base case we expressed in our Q4 Quarterly Outlook “What Happens When U.S. Interest Rates Rise” implies gains for many risky assets from current levels, but seems less likely to occur than earlier in the year (65% probability, down from 75%). In this monthly update, we take the opportunity to describe the risks around this central scenario, with, in our view, the probability of an adverse global scenario over the medium term now standing at around 30% (up from 15%). Our positive risk scenario, meanwhile, appears to be extremely unlikely (5%, down from 10%).
• What to watch this month: The ECB publishes its economic bulletin, perhaps providing further clues about the extension of its quantitative easing programme (November 5); Bank of England policy meeting (November 5), for indications about how long it will keep its policy rate at 0.50%; Brazil’s leading party holds its annual convention (November 15)—look for clues about whether the economy’s vital fiscal adjustment will progress.
Heatmap: Roubini’s 2016 Growth Forecasts (%, y/y)
Source: Roubini Global Economics
Key Theme: Odds of a Global Recession Increase
The world continues to be buffeted by the series of financial shocks and knock-on uncertainty since last spring, with China supplanting the Fed as the main source of concern. In our view, the probability of an adverse global scenario over the medium term (12-18 months) has increased.
Shocks Buffet the Global Economy
Steady but sub-par emerging-market aggregate growth masks considerable divergence and economic and financial risks.
Developed markets are not completely immune to the global market stresses, with some signs of slowdown, particularly in the U.S. Commodity prices have tumbled amid a prolonged glut and, in our view, overly pessimistic analyst forecasts on China. Commodity exporters are therefore being hobbled—Brazil and Russia, in particular—and several others are suffering meaningfully, with exchange rates absorbing the bulk of the terms-of-trade shock.
Meanwhile, more open nations are struggling as a result of the softer global trade growth.
One of the themes we highlighted in our last quarterly was the heightened risk of a downside scenario for the global economy and markets. The knock-on tightening of financial conditions and weaker U.S. growth momentum has increased the chance of an adverse global economic scenario, as these negative macroeconomic forces interact with the rise in the external debt of and local currency outflows from emerging markets.
Greater Risks Around Our Central Scenario
The base-case of a modest expansion that we described in our Q4 Quarterly Outlook (around 3% global growth) is somewhat less likely than in previous Quarterly Outlooks (we see a probability of 65%, from 75% earlier in the year), and the likelihood of our positive scenario occurring (S&P at 2350, EMBIG spreads sub-300) has slipped to just 5% from 10% over a 12-18-month horizon. Both trends have been reinforced by the macro data in September and early October.
It follows that we have increased the odds of an adverse global scenario in the medium term (2016-17) to 30% (from 15%), because of the higher likelihood that:
• China’s slowdown will be worse than the bumpy landing we project;
• Emerging-market portfolio outflows will lead to further pressures on currencies and credit growth, especially in commodity producers; and
• Spill-overs to financial markets will spark greater risk aversion and lead to a slower pace of Fed rate hikes.
These risks have grown following the increase in risk appetite in light of markets discounting early Fed hikes.
How Would the Adverse Case Play Out?
In our downside case, global growth slows to under 2% in 2016, implying rising unemployment and financial stress. Emerging markets face the greatest downside risks. Their developed counterparts can partially “decouple”, protected by delays to hikes in the U.S. and UK and further “unconventional” easing in the Eurozone and Japan. These will also support more developed, open emerging markets.
Under this scenario, we would see emerging markets experiencing a larger shock of a 2-3% decline in growth, with Asian trading nations and commodity producers in Latin America and Africa most affected.
A China slowdown (to 4% growth) is a possible catalyst: That would, according to both our own and external econometric estimates, lead to a 0.9% growth decline across developed markets, with the U.S. least affected and Japan the most. That said, while we recognise China’s risks, we do not expect an out of control “hard” landing. With exports and domestic demand picking up, we see no reason for the renminbi to depreciate sharply. In our baseline, volatility and risk aversion will continue until concerns about China eventually abate.
Asset-Class Implications: Fixed Income
Sovereign bonds—DMs to outperform EMs
We continue to expect only a modest rise in U.S. bond yields, and believe the pressures associated with emerging-market reserve selling will not have much effect on Treasurys.
In fact, the latter is more likely to be associated with lower risk-free yields. Meanwhile, we expect expanded quantitative easing in the Eurozone and Japan to hold down sovereign yields there.
The delayed rate hikes from the Fed and easing in Europe could prompt more easing/delayed hikes from other G10 central banks. We expect the Bank of Canada to cut more than once in December in light of the slack in the labor market and spill-overs from the U.S. late-cycle slowdown.
Emerging Markets Have Little Space to Ease
The shorter end of most emerging-market curves looks more vulnerable to repricing, with many curves (such as the Mexican, South African and Colombian curves) already steep and Brazil’s elevated due to fiscal/political uncertainty.
Most Asian central banks will likely stay on hold, except for India, which could cut more.
In the broad Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa region, we believe Hungary and Russia could do additional easing, but only towards year-end. Turkey will likely keep rates stable until 2016 due to political pressures, while South Africa could continue its tightening cycle in November.
In Latin America, despite mounting pressure to cut, we expect Brazil to keep policy rates on hold, cutting only in Q2 2016 or when inflation falls and the fiscal policy anchor is credible.
Rather than hiking rates, we believe the Brazilian Central Bank will instead increase the stock of foreign-exchange swaps, or even resort to direct interventions using its ample cushion of foreign reserves if the real comes under more pressure.
Focus on European Equity
The modest recovery in the Eurozone is having an outsized impact on company earnings, with the European Central Bank’s impact on rates and the euro helping even the laggards.
In particular, we believe French equities can continue to outperform their German and Spanish counterparts through the medium term.
Even if it is lagging some of its counterparts, the French economy is benefiting from the Eurozone-wide rebound.
The economy grew weakly in H1 (1% y/y), but investment, in decline for the past two years, remains a source of weakness. Consumption has remained the main driver of growth, underpinned by public-sector spending.
This cyclical rebound provides a supportive macro foundation for French equity in the near term.
French Earnings: Solid Catch-Up Potential
Against this backdrop, French corporate earnings prospects look strong and margins show signs of recovery, potentially allowing earnings to outpace GDP. Earnings of listed French firms fluctuate by 25% over the course of the business cycle—in line with the cyclical volatility of German corporate earnings. However, French firms are less affected by swings in global trade than their German counterparts.
Since we noted weakness in earnings momentum a year ago, French earnings, supported by the weaker euro, have reversed course and registered the highest revision sentiment score over the past 12 months.
Moreover, they are still 25% below their 2008 peak, offering good catch-up potential relative to Germany, where earnings have already rebounded.
The weak euro has been a particular boon to France’s industrial sector, which accounts for 20% of total corporate earnings (greater than the German, Spanish and Italian figures).
The prospect of an expansion of the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing program implies further Euro depreciation—a source of near-term support for French equity.
Asset Class Implications: Commodities
Up until a week ago, futures markets were shifting out their expectations for the Fed’s next rate hike. However, the latest FOMC meeting statement (28th October) downplayed the global risks that were driving markets expectations out. On 3rd of November, the probability of a rate hike in December according to the futures market had risen to 50%, moving closer in line with Roubini Global Economics’ forecast.
To the extent that increasing Fed fund rates expectations raise real interests rates, the latest development could be viewed as gold-price negative.
However, demand for the precious metal from China in recent months has picked up significantly, adding a significant source of support for the metal. Net Chinese imports from Hong Kong in September 2015 rose to the highest level since February 2014.
Asset-Class Implications: Foreign Exchange
Interestingly, during four of the past five Federal Reserve tightening cycles, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has declined. This is contrary to what would normally be expected with higher interest rates and certainly is contrary to current consensus for the USD in the coming year.
It could be misleading to generalise and extrapolate to the current environment. Indeed, it appears there are several factors at play during these episodes, ranging from the mid-1970s to 2006.
The US Federal Reserve appears to be once again focussing on the outlook for the local US economy, in the wake of the market volatility that stayed its hand at the September meeting.
Although inflation expectations remain subdued, there has been evidence of some inflationary pressure, albeit modest in the system. Should the Fed again hold off in December, there is an increasing chance of policy mistakes down the road. An initial 25bps rate hike is unlikely to derail the economic recovery and raises the prospect of policy mistakes. We expect the US jobs market to remain robust and keep the Fed on course to raise rates in 2015.
Indeed, policy mistakes could be the reason that the ECB seems so committed to additional stimulus: raising rates prematurely in 2011, before cutting them in 2012. Further extension or expansion of the current stimulus measures is likely before year-end 2015 and in turn likely to keep pressure on the Euro.
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Disclaimer Text This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.
The decentralized finance (DeFi) sector is poised for explosive growth, with estimates projecting at least an $80B valuation by the end of 2025. This remarkable trajectory is fueled by a confluence of factors, including favorable regulatory shifts and the pivotal role of decentralized exchanges (DEXs) in driving market trends. At the heart of the DeFi landscape are four key exchanges that exemplify the sector’s dynamism and potential:
- Uniswap: The industry titan with multi-chain dominance
- Aerodrome: Base network’s powerhouse
- Raydium: Solana’s DeFi cornerstone
- Jupiter: The innovative aggregator reshaping Solana’s ecosystem
Why focus on these exchanges now? The DeFi sector is at a critical juncture:
• Imminent protocol upgrades promise to reshape market dynamics.
• Institutional participation is surging, driven by regulatory clarity.
• The Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi is expected to surpass $250B by year-end.
• DEXs are playing a crucial role in emerging trends, including the rise of memecoins, AI agents and tokenized real-world assets.
As we delve into these four pivotal exchanges, we’ll uncover the technological advancements, market strategies, and regulatory adaptations that are set to define DeFi’s trajectory in 2025 and beyond.
For starters, what are Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs)?
DEXs are non-custodial exchanges empowering users to trade assets directly via self-executing smart contracts, bypassing traditional intermediaries. By linking non-custodial wallets like MetaMask and Phantom, traders retain full control of their funds while swapping tokens across different blockchains. Instead of centralized order books, DEXs leverage automated market makers (AMMs)—algorithmic liquidity pools that set prices and enable anyone to contribute capital, democratizing market access for both users and liquidity providers. As seen below, the ratio of volume between decentralized vs. centralized venues has reached its highest level to date.
Figure 1: Decentralized to Centralized Exchange Spot Volumes
Source: 21Shares, TheBlock
Why are DEXs important?
DEXs dismantle financial gatekeepers, democratizing access through unstoppable, open-source protocols that fuel permissionless innovation. Unlike centralized giants like Mt. Gox or Bitfinex—whose catastrophic hacks exposed systemic fragility—DEXs are immune to single-point failures due to the decentralized nature of their underlying networks. Their censorship-resistant design ensures no entity can freeze assets or halt transactions. For example, the SEC sent a Wells notice to Uniswap Labs alleging they’re facilitating the trading of unregistered securities. While the foundation removed the tokens from its front end, the underlying smart contracts remained accessible on Ethereum. This meant that users could still interact with these tokens through alternative front-ends or by directly engaging with underlying smart contracts. This reinforces that while regulators target surface-level interfaces, the core infrastructure remains immutable—a testament to DeFi’s immutable foundational promise.
Having said that, aggregators also play an important role. Just as brokerage platforms consolidate fragmented liquidity across centralized exchanges, DEX aggregators in crypto fulfill a similar role. These tools optimize trade execution by intelligently routing orders, reducing slippage and costs by 2-5%. Working symbiotically with DEXs like Uniswap, aggregators drive 20-35% of DEX volume, creating a win-win ecosystem: DEXs gain increased activity, while aggregators thrive on consolidated liquidity. This collaboration transforms isolated pools into a cohesive financial network.
Why are we talking about them now?
For one, DeFi ranks among the highest revenue-generating sectors in the crypto ecosystem, as seen in Figure 2. This stems from DeFi’s early maturity and its strong Product-Market Fit due to its vital role in enabling access to emerging sectors.
Figure 2: Breakdown of the top 20 revenue-generating protocols, categorized by sectors, over the last year.
Source: 21Shares, TokenTerminal
Specifically, DEXs dominate blockchain activity as the primary gas consumers, with platforms like Uniswap and Raydium consistently ranking as top spenders across the landscape, as seen in Figure 3. Furthermore, exchanges have a symbiotic relationship with stablecoins: over half of Tether’s on-chain transactions originate from trading, creating a self-reinforcing cycle where Tether liquidity fuels DEX volume. At the same time, DEX demand solidifies Tether’s dominance. By driving 60-75% of on-chain activity through token swaps, stablecoin demand, and dApp liquidity provision, exchanges act as a foundational access point for the crypto ecosystem.
Figure 3: Top 10 Gas Spenders in Last Year
Source: 21Shares, TokenTerminal
In a sense, DEXs not only drive their own ecosystem but also generate a significant portion of the demand for the underlying blockchains they operate on. However, they can capture even more value and strengthen the investment case for their native tokens by positioning them as the gas token for their dApp. Given the self-reinforcing ecosystem and user loop they create, it becomes increasingly logical for DEXs to evolve into their own app-chains—allowing them to fully internalize transaction fees, optimize performance, and enhance user experience while maintaining sovereignty over their liquidity and trading infrastructure.
We are seeing this starting to materialize, both with Uniswap’s Unichain, which we wrote an entire previous newsletter on, and Jupiter’s Jupnet. The latter is a new omnichain network aiming to unify liquidity across multiple blockchains into one platform, creating a decentralized ledger that enhances usability for both users and developers. Jupnet envisions a future where a single account can seamlessly access all chains, currencies, and commodities—referred to as the ”1A3C” vision. This approach is designed to simplify blockchain interactions while empowering new innovations in cross-chain liquidity and usability.
The evolution of Uniswap and Jupiter into application-specific chains represents a strategic shift in the DeFi landscape driven by similar motivations. Both protocols aim to optimize their ecosystems by vertically integrating their operations. Uniswap’s upcoming Unichain and Jupiter’s cross-chain network are designed to significantly reduce fees, enhance trading speeds, and consolidate fragmented liquidity across multiple chains. In addition, it also creates new revenue streams by capturing MEV —estimated at over $400M annually—that previously leaked to third parties. By internalizing these value streams, both protocols transform from mere liquidity providers into self-sustaining trading ecosystems while building defensible moats against competitors
Beyond this strategic shift, Uniswap is also setting itself up for success with the release of v4, which was just deployed this week. The latest upgrade enhances v3’s efficiency with optimizable adapters that enable custom logic during swaps, liquidity actions, or fee collection. This modular design supports advanced features like limit orders, dynamic fees, and automated liquidity management without core protocol changes. Traders and liquidity providers benefit from reduced costs and flexible fee structures that optimize value distribution.
DEX Memecoin Frenzy
The surge in non-custodial infrastructure adoption has been significantly propelled by memecoins, offering an accessible gateway for newcomers to the crypto ecosystem, especially as these tokens are often unavailable on centralized exchanges during their initial launch. This trend has been a major catalyst for DEX growth over the past year, peaking with Trump’s memecoin launch. A prime example is Raydium, Solana’s largest DEX, where memecoin trading dominates activity. In the last 24 hours, memecoins represented 7 of the top 10 most traded tokens on the platform, accounting for over 30% of its total volume. Expanding this view, 41 of the top 50 traded tokens were memecoins, contributing to more than 50% of Raydium’s daily trading volume. These statistics underscore the pivotal role of memecoin speculation in driving DEX activity and liquidity in decentralized markets.
Figure 4: Raydium 24-Hour Spot Trading Volume
Source: 21Shares, Coingecko
$TRUMP, World Liberty Financial (WLFI) Convergence, What’s Next?
The Trump ecosystem appears poised to expand its crypto footprint. Following their DeFi lending platform (WLF), a Trump-branded DEX could emerge as the logical next step—transforming TRUMP from a memecoin into the cornerstone of a self-sustaining DeFi network. Despite ranking 40th in market cap, TRUMP already claims a top-10 trading volume spot, signaling robust demand. A dedicated DEX would amplify this activity while unlocking fee-based revenue, solidifying Trump’s crypto influence through an integrated swap-lend-earn ecosystem.
Looking ahead, a Trump Layer 2 or appchain could elevate this vision. By designating TRUMP as the network’s native gas token, the ecosystem could internalize transaction fees, enhance scalability, and deepen token utility. Such a move would transcend memecoin status, potentially reshaping how public figures monetize digital influence and the overall perception of these tokens.
Having established the critical role of DEXs, let’s now explore the key factors that set them apart and their key value propositions:
Total Value Locked serves as DeFi’s primary metric for measuring capital deployed across protocols. Initially, Uniswap dominated this space by capitalizing on Ethereum’s first-mover advantage and network effects, reaching a peak TVL of $10B. Despite severe market fluctuations during recent crypto winters, DEX TVL remained stable – demonstrating DeFi’s market maturity and sustainable product-market fit.
Figure 5: Total Value Locked Across Major DEXs
Source: 21Shares, DeFiLlama
The competitive landscape has shifted significantly with new entrants challenging Ethereum’s dominance. Aerodrome leveraged Coinbase’s Base network integration to streamline user onboarding, while Solana’s low-cost infrastructure fueled growth of protocols like Raydium and Jupiter, which now collectively hold over $5B in TVL. These developments reduced Uniswap’s market share from near-total dominance to roughly 50% of the combined TVL held by these three emerging rivals. This redistribution highlights DeFi’s evolution into a multi-chain ecosystem where scalability and user experience increasingly dictate platforms’ success.
Daily active users follow a similar trend. Uniswap, benefiting from Ethereum’s ecosystem, once dominated but Solana-based apps, especially Raydium, surged. By late last year, Raydium captured over 80% of daily active users, driven by memecoin trading’s retail appeal.
Figure 6: Daily Active Users Across Major DEXs
Figure 7: Total Volume Across Major DEXs
Source: 21Shares, TokenTerminal, Artemis
Transaction counts also highlight the rapid growth of Solana-based platforms, particularly Raydium, driven by speculative trading and low costs. As shown in Figure 8, Raydium reached a peak of over 25M transactions in a single day, more than double its other competitors, showcasing its dominance in the current DEX landscape.
Figure 8: Total Transaction Count Across Major DEXs
Source: 21Shares, Token Terminal, Dune
Figure 9 highlights that Raydium’s significant activity translates into equally notable revenue generation, making nearly $30M in revenue the weekend ahead of the inauguration. Meanwhile, Aerodrome generates substantial revenue due to the vote-escrow mechanism which is explored in a later section.
Figure 9: Total Revenue Generated
Source: 21Shares, TokenTerminal, Dune
For the technically curious, the following section delves deep into the intricacies that distinguish these DEXs.
Figure 10: Comparing the Different DEX Platforms
Source: 21Shares
The main differentiating feature amongst DEXs is how they operate their liquidity models. For example, Raydium’s Hybrid AMM model combines Concentrated Liquidity Market Maker (CLMM) with Central Limit Order Book (CLOB), offering both customizable liquidity ranges and traditional order matching. This model provides flexibility for traders and liquidity providers. Alternatively, Uniswap’s Classic AMM, maintains liquidity across all price points, ensuring continuous liquidity. However, this model may be less capital efficient and more rigid.
Finally, Aerodrome’s *ve(3,3) AMM, inspired by Curve Finance, introduces vote-escrowed tokens and bribes to incentivize liquidity provision. This model allows token holders to lock their tokens for voting rights and elevated rewards, potentially creating a more engaged and stickier liquidity base. As such, each model offers a unique balance between simplicity, capital efficiency, and user incentives.
To summarize, these are the key distinctions between all 4 models:
• Raydium offers customizable liquidity ranges and traditional order matching.
• Jupiter is an aggregator that lacks its own liquidity engine. However, it offers centralized exchange-level features like limit orders and dynamic slippage calculator,upgrading the typical DEX user-experience.
• Uniswap V3 pioneered concentrated liquidity, enabling roughly 4000x capital efficiency vs V2 in stablecoin pairs.
• Aerodrome uses Curve-style vote-escrow tokens (veAERO) with bribes directing 73% of revenue.
Having identified the differences between the platforms’ technologies, let’s compare the valuation of their respective tokens:
Figure 11: DEXs’ Tokens Valuation Metrics
Source: 21Shares, TokenTerminal
*Jupiter’s revenue here only accounts for its spot market activity, although the bulk of its activity actually comes from its derivatives platform, that’s why it has such a seemingly unfavorable market cap / revenue ratio.
As seen, Aerodrome stands out as a remarkably undervalued token compared to its peers, driven by its impressive revenue generation and dominance on the Base network. Despite operating on a single chain and capturing less than 25% of Uniswap’s user base, Aerodrome’s performance underscores the power of strong product-market fit. Its success, particularly when compared to multi-chain platforms like Uniswap, highlights the potential for focused, chain-specific exchanges. In terms of Market Cap to TVL, Uniswap and Raydium’s low ratio suggest undervaluation, reflecting high capital efficiency and stronger usage. However, relative valuation is just one factor to consider, as these protocols are at varying stages of maturity. The evolving DeFi landscape suggests a future where multiple specialized exchanges can thrive simultaneously, each carving out its niche in the broader ecosystem.
All in all, DeFi emerges as a 2025 standout sector, fueled by regulatory tailwinds and accelerating institutional adoption of on-chain infrastructure. At its core, DEXs like Uniswap and Jupiter are evolving into critical infrastructure, leveraging innovations such as Unichain and Jupnet to achieve institutional-grade scalability while pioneering app-chain architectures. As the DEX/CEX volume ratio reaches record highs just shy of 40%, these platforms are uniquely positioned to capitalize on the migration to decentralized markets. Their growing emphasis on user-aligned tokenomics—where revenue-sharing mechanisms transform governance tokens into yield-generating assets—creates a compelling value proposition for investors navigating this new era of value accrual in DeFi.
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Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
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The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
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