Commodity ETP Weekly – Divergent flows following further price falls
• Inflows accumulate into oil ETPs as prices weaken. • Gold and PGM flows head in the opposite direction. • Copper continues to suffer from negative sentiment. • Upcoming webinar: Global commodities, have we reached the floor in prices?
• Falling prices drove bargain-hunting inflows in to oil and PGMs while testing investors’ patience in gold and copper. • Continued weakness in oil prices are likely to put oil and gas companies under further pressure for more production and expenditure cuts which bodes well for the global oil market to rebalance as early as next year. • Pressure on precious metals will remain until the Federal Reserve meeting in mid-December. However, the typical “buy on the rumour, sell on the news” investor behaviour, could benefit the metal after the move is made.
Inflows accumulate into oil ETPs as prices weaken. WTI oil fell 3% to US$40.5/bbl. while Brent failed to make any gains, driving continued bargain hunting. Last week saw US$64.7mn into long WTI oil ETPs and US$15.5mn into long Brent oil ETPs, up 39% and 42% respectively compared to the previous week’s inflows. While there was no clear trend from the CFTC non-commercial positions into oil futures contracts, last week marks the second consecutive week of strong inflows into oil ETPs, suggesting that ETP investors have strengthened their conviction that oil prices will rise in the near future. ETFS Daily ShortWTICrude Oil (SOIL) also saw outflows of US$1.2mn last week, in line with the general sentiment on the ETP market. After seven weeks of sharp increases, US oil inventories growth slowed last week, up by only 252,000 barrels. In its November issue of the Short term Energy Outlook, the EIA projects that while the global oil supply will remain in surplus next year, it will stabilise at around 95.5 million barrels per day on the back of declining oil production in the US and in Canada. Inventory build-up in the US is also expected to slow down next year.
Gold and PGM flows head in the opposite direction. Continued price weakness defeated investors’ patience in gold. Gold fell a further 0.4% last week and led to the first outflows in 10 weeks. Gold ETPs saw large outflows of US$70.6mn last week, at a magnitude we have not seen since August 2015. Despite China imports of gold at a seven month high and confirmation that Diwali sales in India drove up October gold demand, rising rate hike expectations in the US continued to mount pressure on gold prices. Meanwhile, last week saw net inflows into platinum and palladium ETPs marking the first creations since the beginning of August as the price of platinum reached another record low (of at US$844/oz. last Wednesday) while palladium approached its August low. Johnson Matthey last week increased the size of its PGM deficit forecasts for 2o15, highlighting the tightness in the metal’s supply.
Copper continues to suffer from negative sentiment. Last week saw copper price reaching another record low on Wednesday at US$4,633/MT, resulting in US$10mn outflows out of copper ETPs. The copper market has been in a deficit for 5 years with 2015 expected to be balanced, before heading into another deficit in 2016 according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts. The ICSG November report released last Friday shows August in a surplus of 81,000 tonnes on low refined copper usage after 4 months of deficit.
Key events to watch this week. While Europe manufacturing PMI in October was relatively stable, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was weaker than expected. Investors will likely follow the November estimates from Markit due this week along with the November consumer confidence for the US and for France.
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The impact of US tariffs continues to dominate market sentiment and risk assets, including crypto, struggled with this uncertainty throughout the month. The Nasdaq Crypto Index™ (NCI™) fell 4.46% in March as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 dropped 5.63% and 7.61%, respectively.
Despite the macro uncertainty from Washington, US policymakers are continuing to embrace crypto in an unprecedented way, including launching a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, Digital Asset Stockpile, and engaging in expansive work at the regulatory agencies and in Congress.
Our team spent the last week of the month in Washington, meeting with regulators to share our experiences and views on what’s most important for crypto investors in the US. In his latest Notes from the CIO, Samir Kerbage shares what he learned from these meetings and how investors should be thinking about the new regulatory regime in the US.
As always, we are greatly appreciative of your trust in us and are here to answer any questions you may have.
-Your Partners at Hashdex
Market Review
March was marked by the tariff dispute triggered by the Trump administration. Back-and-forth fiscal policies, threats, and retaliations dominated the month’s agenda. The uncertain macroeconomic environment put investors into a defensive stance and negatively impacted crypto assets. The Nasdaq Crypto Index™ (NCI™) closed the month down -4.46% after a period of high volatility. Major market indices, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, also recorded steep declines of -5.63% and -7.61%, respectively. These concurrent drawdowns across equities and crypto underscored March’s broad market caution, as trade war uncertainty prompted investors to flee risk assets.
During times of uncertainty, it is common to observe increased correlation among different classes of risk assets. This pattern played out in March: the 6-month rolling correlation of monthly returns between the NCI™ and the Nasdaq-100 surged to roughly 0.91 (see chart below), its highest level since 2021, indicating that crypto assets were moving almost in lockstep with tech stocks. This spike in correlation confirms that crypto was behaving like a high-beta extension of the tech sector—an amplified version of the Nasdaq-100. The lack of clarity in the global landscape leads investors to reduce their risk exposure and seek protection, a movement known in financial markets as “risk-off” allocation.
6-Month Rolling Correlation of Monthly Returns between the Nasdaq Crypto Index and Nasdaq-100 (Apr 2021–Apr 2025).
The chart illustrates how this correlation has been increasing since the American elections in November 2024 and spiked to approximately 0.91 in the most recent period—a multi-year high. This visual evidence reinforces the view that crypto assets have been moving closely in tandem with tech stocks, effectively acting as a high-beta version of the Nasdaq-100 during the March risk-off phase.
Following this trend, risk reduction was evident within the crypto asset class. Among the NCI’s constituents, Bitcoin (BTC) posted a decline of -1.93%, withstanding the downturn far better than other constituents such as Ether (ETH, -17.4%) and Litecoin (LTC, -34.6%). BTC’s relatively mild drop in this sell-off aligns with the idea that it increasingly trades like a high-beta proxy for large-cap tech. It still declined, but less severely, whereas smaller-cap crypto assets behaved more like speculative growth stocks and suffered outsized losses. The only exception to the negative results was Cardano (ADA), which surprised with a positive return of 3.88% despite no significant protocol developments during the month.
Thematic indices also faced a challenging environment. As highlighted in previous letters, smaller capitalization assets tend to suffer more during periods of market stress, mirroring how speculative small-cap stocks are hit hardest in equity sell-offs. The biggest negative highlight was the Digital Culture Index, which dropped -17.45%, followed by the Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and Smart Contract Platform (Web3) indices, which fell -16.73% and -12.07%, respectively. The Vinter Hashdex Risk Parity Momentum Index recorded a negative result of -8.26% but outperformed the three other thematic indices, benefiting from its high allocation in BTC and TRX (which gained 4.68%). The heavy weighting in BTC – the more resilient large-cap crypto – helped cushion this index, underscoring the relevance of the momentum factor in a well-diversified strategy during times of market stress.
The market remains on the lookout for the outcome of the fiscal policy discussions, hoping for a reduction in uncertainties and an end to the tariff war. That would likely mark the moment when investors regain their appetite for risk assets, including crypto assets. The U.S. government has also signaled interest in advancing the crypto agenda, a development that could drive the asset class to a new level of adoption. We remain confident in our positive outlook for the rest of the year and the long term.
Top Stories
US creates Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and Digital Asset Stockpile
The Bitcoin Reserve will be capitalized with BTC owned by the Department of Treasury, which could further increase via new budget-neutral acquisitions. The stockpile will also include assets owned by the Treasury. This marks a major milestone, with the US government starting to integrate major crypto assets and continues the new administration’s work to lead the global crypto economy.
Stablecoins surpass $230 billion in market value
The total stablecoins market capitalization surpassed $230 billion amid institutional demand for dollar-backed digital assets. This showcases one of the most successful applications for crypto technology enhancing traditional financial payments. It could also pave the way for new use cases that require a strong and reliable global payment system.
FDIC eases banks’ ability to engage in crypto activities
The FDIC has rescinded previous guidelines which prevented financial institutions from engaging with crypto activities without prior sign-off. By removing bureaucratic hurdles, banks may more readily over crypto-related services, potentially leading to broader adoption and integration of digital assets into the financial system.
Invesco BulletShares 2028 EUR Corporate Bond UCITSETF EUR Acc (BSE8 ETF) med ISIN IE00079EUF59, försöker följa Bloomberg 2028 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened-index. Bloomberg 2028 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2028) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2028 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,10 % p.a. Invesco BulletShares 2028 EUR Corporate Bond UCITSETF EUR Acc är den billigaste och största ETF som följer Bloomberg 2028 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
Invesco BulletShares 2028 EUR Corporate Bond UCITSETF EUR Accär en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 6 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 18 juni 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Produktbeskrivning
Invesco BulletShares 2028 EUR Corporate Bond UCITSETFAcc syftar till att tillhandahålla den totala avkastningen för Bloomberg 2028 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index (”Referensindexet”), minus avgifternas inverkan. Fonden har en fast löptid och kommer att upphöra på Förfallodagen.
Referensindexet är utformat för att återspegla resultatet för EUR-denominerade, investeringsklassade, fast ränta, skattepliktiga skuldebrev emitterade av företagsemittenter. För att vara kvalificerade för inkludering måste företagsvärdepapper ha minst 300 miljoner euro i nominellt utestående belopp och en effektiv löptid på eller mellan 1 januari 2028 och 31 december 2028.
Värdepapper är uteslutna om emittenter: 1) är inblandade i kontroversiella vapen, handeldvapen, militära kontrakt, oljesand, termiskt kol eller tobak; 2) inte har en kontroversnivå enligt definitionen av Sustainalytics eller har en Sustainalytics-kontroversnivå högre än 4; 3) anses inte följa principerna i FN:s Global Compact; eller 4) kommer från tillväxtmarknader.
Portföljförvaltarna strävar efter att uppnå fondens mål genom att tillämpa en urvalsstrategi, som inkluderar användning av kvantitativ analys, för att välja en andel av värdepapperen från referensindexet som representerar hela indexets egenskaper, med hjälp av faktorer som index- vägd genomsnittlig varaktighet, industrisektorer, landvikter och kreditkvalitet. När en företagsobligation som innehas av fonden når förfallodag kommer kontanterna som fonden tar emot att användas för att investera i kortfristiga EUR-denominerade skulder.
ETFen förvaltas passivt.
En investering i denna fond är ett förvärv av andelar i en passivt förvaltad indexföljande fond snarare än i de underliggande tillgångarna som ägs av fonden.
”Förfallodag”: den andra onsdagen i december 2026 eller sådant annat datum som bestäms av styrelseledamöterna och meddelas aktieägarna.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.
Det senaste veckan var den värsta veckan för världens aktiemarknader sedan covid-lockdown-kollapsen i mars 2020. Det var dessutom den värsta vecka för amerikanska aktier sedan covid-lockdown-kollapsen i mars 2020.
Det amerikanska referensindexet NASDAQ gick tillsammans med i Russell 2000, ett amerikanskt aktiemarknadsindex för småbolag i björnmarknadens territorium när dessa båda index fallit med över 20 procent från sina toppnoteringar. Samtidigt föll amerikanska Dow Jones med 2 200 punkter under fredagen.
Den grupp av företag som kallas för Mag 7 och har drivit börsuppgången på den amerikanska aktiemarknaden, tappade 1,4 biljoner dollar i börsvärde under veckan – det mest någonsin.
Fredagen den 4 april såh den högsta volymsessionen i historien på den amerikanska aktiemarknaden mätt som det totala antalet omsatta aktier på alla börser.
Det amerikanska VIX-indexet, känt som ”fear and greed-indexet” såg sin största veckorörelse sedan februari 2020. Det var också den värsta veckan för USAskreditmarknader sedan covid-lockdown-krisen, till och med värre än under SVB-bankkrisen.
Oljepriset kraschade med 11 procent under veckan, det största fallet sedan mars 2023 (SVB-kris / tillväxtskräck). Samtidigt rapporterade guldpriset den andra nedgångsvecka i år. Fredagen kursfall var den värsta dagen sedan november 2024. Priset på koppar såg sitt största fall sedan Lehman-kraschen i oktober 2008. Kryptovalutan Bitcoin rapporterade små vinster under veckan.